patrick.net

Pummeling Junior U. is usually considered an endorsement for the opposing school.

You really can't blame the SoCal drivers for driving the way they do, the traffic there is much worse than BA traffic. I laugh when BA people complain about traffic, BA traffic is even better than DC or Seattle.

skibum,

Well there's a reason I don't go to a lot of games all that much anymore and most of it is for the very reasons you describe. I just thought it was a time to give credit where it's due and the UCLA gals conducted themselves w/class. When you're that young getting to go anywhere IS exciting. College athletics has gotten a bad name and it was refreshing to see that some of the student-atheletes don't take their program for granted.

This is funny. Blanche "the douchebag" Evans has a piece in RealtyTimes trying to boost the morale of the army of realtwhores out there:

http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20061106_bailout.htm

Hey realtors (ConfusedRealtwhore included), hang in there!

"Some of the most successful people in real estate today started their careers during the last real estate downturn in the 1990s," he adds. "They figured out a way to remain in the business during difficult times. If you're passionate about a career in real estate, and approach it with the right mindset, you can do the same."

Pummeling Junior U. is usually considered an endorsement for the opposing school.

@astrid,

These days, achieving this is not a very difficult task.

I laugh when BA people complain about traffic, BA traffic is even better than DC or Seattle.

No way. I go to Seattle a lot and that's just bunk.

Seattle's traffic is bad, but it's understandable because they have a puny 4 lane bridge (520). Yeah I can understand why it would take ~1 hour at rush hour to go from the Eastside to the Westside. And traffic can be bad nearing the Boeing plants at 5pm.

But what the hell? It sometimes takes 1+ hour to go from Downtown Palo Alto to Downtown San Jose. And that's using an 8 lane road!

"Blanche "the douchebag" Evans" LOL! Damn!

Notice how they describe "alternate careers" within RE vice say......chucking it in! "Since 30% of homes sold in 2004 and 40% in 2005 were second homes these people could use a lot of help to keep these properties cash flowing". Rally? Cash flowing? How's is dat?

Ahem, renting that "distance McAlbatross" at Lake Woebegone isn't going to yield you zip, point, squat! So of the 38 homes at the lake you are able to find a "writer" that wants to lease ONE for 6 months? Oh yeah, that sounds enormously lucrative! GFL.

Ahem, renting that “distance McAlbatross” at Lake Woebegone isn’t going to yield you zip, point, squat!

Ah yes, Lake Wobegone, where the realtors are smart, the McAlbatrosses are plenty, and median home prices above average.

I think this guy should be dressed like a sheep instead!

Ooops, This guy

gr8vino,

Yeah! That's the ticket! This guy could "find the pony" in a room full of....... Anyway to hear Hayes talk you'd think the re-fi craze was still in full swing! It's so bad that some of my pals tell me there were MB's that had never actually done a "purchase" mortgage!

While we don't typically have the "nose bleed" prices the BA gets to brag about Portland consistently ranks among the most overpriced markets due in large part that our median income is about half of the BA!

I just keep wondering what's going to happen to all that over development in the "Pearl District" and high end stuff downtown? The realtors are still putting on this "bravado" but then you see the same listing on Craigslist offering discounts and we'll pay one years HOA etc. It's just so sloppy now it's easy for either side (bears or bulls) to make their case. We'll know more by spring.

skibum,

Firstly it's really weird here right now. It's like 69 degrees and supposed to be 75 on the coast. Here in the valley were looking at 5" of rain in the next 48 hours and the coast as much as 10"? Up on Mt. Hood this usually means much fun!

Yeah, Lake Woebegone. I always kid clients that are/were contemplating a 3,500 sq. ft. "weekender" about what a weekender was supposed to have been about! (Getting AWAY from it all?) Remember? If you look on Cabella's web site they have great 400-1,200 sq. ft. cabin kits starting around 8 grand. Why don't you start there? See how you like it.

Does anyone know who DCI Pacific is?

Seattle and DC seem to be sandwiched right in between SF/Oakland and San Jose. At least on a gross area-wide basis.

Cool - we're both right. :)

It's kind of telling that SF/Oakland has to be broken apart from San Jose - goes to show how awful traffic is both ways. No wonder our house prices are so expensive - bad traffic = high house prices. It's a No Brainer.

3. Contact your local Democratic Party headquarters. There are close races in nearly every state.

Sadly, as Jim Kunstler notes in this entry - even if the Democrats win, we're still on a path to screwedness:

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2006/11/the_time_remain.html

What a great quote:

http://www.kunstler.com/Mags_Bruegmann.html

This sad fact explains why the chronic disappointment of suburbia inspires ridicule even among those who live in it. It hasn’t delivered very well on its promises for a long time now. In its florid, climactic incarnation today – the McMansion precincts of Dallas, Atlanta, or Northern Virginia – it presents the worst elements of urban and rural life in the same package, with few of the benefits of either. The megaburbs have all the congestion of a city and none of the human contact. They have all of the isolation of the country, but no real connection to nature.

What an apt description of McMansionvilles

Did anyone see CNBC this morning? Apparently Nouriel Roubini was on Squawk Box bitch-slapping the NAR president:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/155898

Does anyone have any comments on this? I wish I had a chance to catch it!

Simply stunning, now is a great time to buy or sell a house.

1-1=0

"The only thing going up in the housing market are delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures" (Roubini)

Now why I couldn't I have said that? Oh and advertising expense!

I was unaware of the "Orwell connection" but glad he didn't let one little thing slide. (Btw, this is how I used to sound at parties).

RE: illegal immigration debate

Tax policy and border & law enforcement alone can go a long way on this issue, but it cannot completely solve the root causes. As long as birth rate and unemployment/extreme poverty remain high in the source countries, there will be large numbers of poor people seeking a better life here at what we would consider to be "slave" wages, and will be willing to live under what we would consider to be "intolerable" conditions (12 to a room).

The things our government does have direct control over is border enforcement (stick) and the ability to align economic and legal incentives & disincentives with desired outcomes (carrot & stick), but the political will to change the status quo is simply not here yet.

To a working-class working American --especially if you are part of the minority underclass-- "desired outcome" means less illegal immigration, which equates to less competition for low skill jobs, social benefits and housing. To the ruling class (including incumbents of both stripes, limousine liberals, corporate executives, tearful Hollywood celebs, etc.), "desired outcome" means more immigration, which equates to cheap, plentiful (and easily intimidated) quasi-slave labor, cheaper services, and fatter profit margins.

Until the fundamental disconnect between what the working class and ruling class sees as "desired outcome" is resolved and/or converges, I predict more useless posturing and rhetoric on the issue, with little real action.

Unfortunately, the U.S. cannot unilaterally dictate birth control policy (or lack thereof) or end corruption and tribalism among other countries, though we could do a great deal more about it than we currently do. Like for instance, restoring our funding for the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), which the Bush administration cut off in 2002: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0622-06.htm.

But I guess promoting safe, plentiful birth control runs counter to the neo-con's notion of "family values". Which roughly translates as promoting any policy that increases the number of ignorant poor people around the world, while simultaneously strangling anything that might increase upward class mobility among the very poor.

I predict more useless posturing and rhetoric on the issue, with little real action.

That's a pretty bold prediction. Do you also predict that the sun will rise? :)

Just kidding - but the reality is that that's what's going to happen. Talking about what you're going to do is so much more important and electable than actually doing something about it.

But I guess promoting safe, plentiful birth control runs counter to the neo-con’s notion of “family values”.

What? Haven't you heard of abstinence and Jesus? :)

Actually, they should just find a way to productize the current malaise in Japan - where increasingly people aren't interested in... uh... certain traditional human functionality.

Actually, they should just find a way to productize the current malaise in Japan - where increasingly people aren’t interested in… uh… certain traditional human functionality.

That would be alright by me ;-).

The birth rate eventually falls to near or below replacement rate in developed countries that have achieved a high general standard of living, universal literacy and where women have widespread access to contraception. It would already be falling here if it were not for --(do I really need to say?).

It's funny how despite the fact human population is growing in every corner of the world except a few highly developed countries like Japan, there are plenty of Cornucopian wingnuts out there that decry this as an example of a so-called "birth dearth". As though falling population levels in a country as densly populated as Japan (at roughly 4X California's pop. density) is somehow a bad thing.

Not to be one to defend the Cornucopian wingnuts, but...

Wingnuts aside, there is a very real problem with shrinking populations (negative replacement rates): impact on economic growth. The entire global economic system is built upon the premise of infinite growth. Now before anyone points out the obvious, this isn't as ludicrous as it sounds on the surface. That's because growth is the sum of population + new capital + replacement of old capital + productivity.

In the long run, it is assumed that all those variables cease to grow except for productivity, which itself essentially reduces to technology growth. So, an assumption of an ever growing economy is only as crazy as the assumption of ever increasing technological knowhow, which probably isn't so crazy.

So a sustained shrinking population would be a significant problem in the short/medium term if it dampened or reversed total growth too much. But, as productivity/technology continues to expand, population becomes ever less significant.

So, although worries about shrinking populations are legitimate today, they are becoming less relevant with every passing day, bar any mass regression (like WWIII). If we were to go backwards too far, then population will again become the most important variable.

Unfortunately, the U.S. cannot unilaterally dictate birth control policy (or lack thereof) or end corruption and tribalism among other countries, though we could do a great deal more about it than we currently do.

But the US can withhold foreign aid to countries who do not implement a birth control policy. It can also influence WB and IMF to do the same.

"...But, as productivity/technology continues to expand, population becomes ever less significant."

Randy, are you saying that we need to reach a certain critical mass of population before technological growth can take over as the prime driver?

Or are you saying that we just plain need net growth, and that as long as productivity grows faster than the population declines, then we are okay?

Or something else?

Wingnuts aside, there is a very real problem with shrinking populations (negative replacement rates): impact on economic growth. The entire global economic system is built upon the premise of infinite growth...

So a sustained shrinking population would be a significant problem in the short/medium term if it dampened or reversed total growth too much. But, as productivity/technology continues to expand, population becomes ever less significant.

Well put, and I basically agree. A shrinking population can and does cause significant problems in the short term, especially when --as you pointed out-- the entire global economic system is built upon the premise of infinite growth. One example would be our own infamous Twin Towers of Financial Doom in the form of unfunded SS & Medicare liabilities, which all but requires an ever-expanding pool of new workers to fund payments for current retirees. Can you say "welfare Ponzi scheme"?

However, I would argue that all a permanently expanding population really does is mask some of the symptoms of persistent structural problems in these programs that would exist with or without population growth. For instance, the wisdom of still setting SS's retirement age based upon much lower life expectancies originally formulated in the 1930s. Or of providing the rather unrealistic expectation that people who have long since exhausted every dime they ever paid into SS (because, again, SS withholdings were based on obsolete LEs) are somehow entitled to "their" retirement money, regardless of the costs to society and/or future generations.

Regarding the long-term impact of a shrinking population, I am reminded of the Black Plague, which killed at least a third (and possibly more than half) of Europe's population in the 14th century. Most historians seem to agree that, despite plenty of pain in the short run, it was incredibly benficial to the survivors --especially the peasant class-- and to the economy in the long run:

From Wikipedia Black Death

The great population loss brought economic changes based on increased social mobility, as depopulation further eroded the peasants' already weakened obligations to remain on their traditional holdings. In Western Europe, the sudden scarcity of cheap labour provided an incentive for landlords to compete for peasants with wages and freedoms, an innovation that, some argue, represents the roots of capitalism, and the resulting social upheaval caused the Renaissance and even Reformation. In many ways the Black Death improved the situation of surviving peasants. In Western Europe, because of the shortage of labour they were in more demand and had more power, and because of the reduced population, there was more fertile land available; however, the benefits would not be fully realized until 1470, nearly 120 years later, when overall population levels finally began to rise again.

Now the only question for me is, how do we infect the REIC with the Plague? :twisted:

But the US can withhold foreign aid to countries who do not implement a birth control policy. It can also influence WB and IMF to do the same.

I completely agree. However, good luck getting that resolution passed under the current anti-science/anti-rationalist Administration and Congress.

If only there was a deadly STD that targets stupidity in reproduction...

Randy, Harm, This is the major global issue. Per Charles Murray in "Human achievement", the major advances in technology, science, business, arts , medicine, etc are from small pockets in europe and somewhat the US. Europe and US decline in population risks the engine of civilization. Immigration from 3rd world countries dilutes these populations and risks what western civilization has generated.

I think we should embrace the rise and fall of civilizations more. Think of time spent huddled in fear in a bomb shelter as family together time...

(I think I may be spending too much time talking to Peter P online)

skibum Said:
This is funny. Blanche “the douchebag” Evans has a piece in RealtyTimes trying to boost the morale of the army of realtwhores out there ... Hey realtors , hang in there!

What else could one expect from this parasitic industry?

If realtwhores change career, it means fewer subscriptions to RealtyTimes. And less fees paid into the NAR cartel. Instead of telling the truth and advising or helping people to find other honest ways of making a living, these asshats try to spread false hope so they can con them into renewing their membership one more time.

SP

doc1 said:
Europe and US decline in population risks the engine of civilization.

Make that 'western civilization'. Contrary to the british myth, there have been civilizations in the past that did rather well, until they were run over by the European 'engine of civilization', ironically due to poor immigration controls to keep the Eurotrash out. :-)

SP

SP,

Yes, it is funny how there was no immigration control until the Europeans built up their empires. Kinda like Europeans protesting against Japanese expansionism in 1933 or China's growing influence in East Asia today.

Still, it does put Europeans in the forefront of "progress", which is kind of a "good" thing.

are you saying that we need to reach a certain critical mass of population before technological growth can take over as the prime driver?

Or are you saying that we just plain need net growth, and that as long as productivity grows faster than the population declines, then we are okay?

Both.

The issue is that we need total net growth to propel continued technological growth. Actually, to say productivity = technology is a reduction simplification. Technology alone is not enough. It is quite possible to create technologies which work, but remain unrealized insofar as their application to us (which we call "the economy"). The driver of applying tech to the economy is the quest for growth, which yields productivity gains.

So it's all a big feedback loop. It used to be a miner with a pick and shovel. Then steam shovels and diesel trucks. Then boring machines and robotic conveyors, maybe someday an automated asteroid mining ship. But, even if we had the spaceship in the 1800s, there would be no use for it because we hadn't grown to an economic scale that would support such a technology/productivity yet.

SP,

Overall, I really can't feel too bad about European colonialism. It really accelerated the process of renewal in much of the new world and in Asia. The replacement regimes, 50 to 100 year after the height of imperialism, do tend to be at least slightly better than what had came before colonialism.

Ahhh Hemingway, to poach from HARM read, enjoy.

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

“Notes on the Next War: A Serious Topical Letter,” Esquire (New York, September 1935)

@Patrick,

Thanks for posting that NAR ad parody --looks great!

Per Charles Murray in “Human achievement”, the major advances in technology, science, business, arts , medicine

I don't know about that. This seems like a very narrow definition of "major advances", especially if you apply business and arts.

The old show "Connections" comes to mind. It's pretty difficult to take something fundamental, like let's say Double Entry Accounting Theory, and attribute it to a singular accomplishment of some devout southern European monk. He was standing on the shoulders of a lot of knowledge and advancement that did not come out of Europe. For that matter, how much Roman advancement was usurped from the non-European imperial expansion? If I recall my history, most of it.

Randy,

So in response to those positing that population based economic growth is a ponzi scheme, you seem to argue that eventually productivity growth will allow us to "end" the ponzi scheme (i.e. cease population growth, or even allow population to decline).

This makes sense. But how will we know when we've reached this point? How do we know we haven't reached it already? Maybe Japan and Europe should quit worrying about their declining populations and just focus on productivity growth. But they don't seem to be inclined to do this.

I'm still not convinced that humanity is sufficiently evolved to survive its own inventions.