patrick.net

yes but the governor is sooo charming!

But he is at least a "republican" who is at least openly pro-business and pro-rich. At the very least, he labels himself correctly.

Many self-proclaimed "rich" liberals in this state are basically hypocrites.

(Not an accusation)

I try to keep politics out of my discussions because 'emotional' doesn't even begin to describe how people get on that topic. But I had to mention that when I lived in LA and worked in the televison industry, political affilitations were very much about whatever was in vogue. If someone thought a director/producer had a bias, then they would take on whatever bias they thought would get them work. Tough to have a political discussion with someone who doesn't have any real opinions.

Las Vegas is going through major land selling these days, as well….actually, just outside of LV in a town called Pahrump. From what I can tell it is not that developed but the hope is that people who don’t want to pay the “high” (?) prices in LV proper will buy in Pahrump and build.

Thanks for the info--fascinating! Those res. Pahrump land prices have me scratching my head; they're actually higher than many residential tracts (street+utilities) along Puget Sound (WA). I can't imagine what LV is priced at. And this is hot, blistering desert--go figure. My picture of Parhump is a "wild-west" town with poor infrastructure; maybe that's changing. I'm sure your money will go further in WA or OR, and the weather won't kill you.

Btw, Pahrump is the home of Art Bell, that nutty conspiracy-talk show host who considers himself a real "survivor". I have to wonder if others moving to Pahrump consider themselves "survivors"? Perhaps it's a good outlook to have there.

I have to wonder if others moving to Pahrump consider themselves “survivors”? Perhaps it’s a good outlook to have there.

You'd better believe it. It's spittin' distance from Death Valley. I think you can see some of the tumbleweed in one of the pics (ad) I referenced.

I'm definitely not interested in buying land there. I have family in LV (10 years) so they keep posted on everything.

BayQT~

HEPFinance

Very good info. Thank you for de-lurking in the interest of keeping the peace. :cool:

Many self-proclaimed “rich” liberals in this state are basically hypocrites
amen brother, amen

I third that. Makes me ill to hear a bunch of millionaire pseudo-"progressives" trying to tell me how GOOD things like Prop. 13 and UBL laws are for me. "It's all about the environment and helping old people." Yeah right --more like, "I got mine, so screw you and yours!"

@HEPFinance,

Sounds reasonable --the spread between the 1/10yr Treasury is now .30. With 2 more Fed rate hikes ahead, I'm willing to bet it will invert by year's end.

Sounds reasonable –the spread between the 1/10yr Treasury is now .30. With 2 more Fed rate hikes ahead, I’m willing to bet it will invert by year’s end.

I can bet the 1/10 too... which sushi restaurant?

Pop!

That link didn't work. Would you mind trying again?

BayQT~

Try this link too:

http://tinyurl.com/9fntu

More than a sushi dinner, if I win, i just want you guys to have an ‘Ode to Marina Prime’ forum posted, since u guys are webmasters. Sounds good?

No. I will not bet anything other than food. :(

‘Ode to Marina Prime’ forum

Just the thought of what could end up being posted frightens me. :shock:

But Peter - That would mean we’d have to get together. What if you are an axe murderer?? What if I’m an axe-murderer?

Sushi Groove on Hyde st. in Russian Hill is great. Butterfish sashimi!

You afraid of me attacking you in front of fellow sushi eaters?

I clicked on the nytimes link thinking it would be a sushi review... :(

if I win, i just want you guys to have an ‘Ode to Marina Prime’ forum

Well, we had a similar thread, titled "One for the Bulls" (July 27th, 2005), but a whole thread devoted to ONE poster (and an attention-hungry one at that) ?

I'll allow it only if MP holds the Bubble BBQ at HIS house. ;-)

No deal. The problem is that I now have sushi on my mind...

Yeah, that’s a great prize for the winner.. have people over at my house, with me providing the food, drinks, and cooking.

Actually I was thinking pot luck, where the guests provide all the food & drink --no effort on your part needed. I admit I'm just a little curious to see what $1.25 mil buys you in the Marina these days.

Anyways... isn't free sushi and the admission Peter & I were wrong payment enough (assuming we lose of course)?

I thought I'd interrupt the party briefly to share something I found while comparing homes on MLS against previous their previous sale price. This was local to Marin, but perhaps it means something in a larger sense.

In a more local sense, how far do you think house prices should drop in Marin to be more in line with the "fundamentals", such as wages, economy, intangibles, etc? Is there a way to reasonably calculate RE value, once we sweep away the effects of the bubble? Certainly time will tell...but in the meantime, I came across something interesting:

Taking current price listings on MLS for Marin (general cross-section of towns/RE segments), I then went to ditech.com and found the price the house sold for last. Then, I selected houses sold prior to the main bubble window (98 and before). Using median pricing stats from the county assessor, I then compared the previous sale price against the median that year, as a percentage of median. Then, I looked at the current price against the '05 median. What I found is that current prices/median are lower than pre-bubble/median. On average, current "values" are 25% lower against median than in pre-bubble years.
Is there a legitimate reason for this? If median prices reflect market fundamentals, then shouldn't current prices be higher? Or, does this suggest current RE is overvalued, throwing the median 'out of whack'?

(ignore the middle paragraph--it was meant for the Marin blog)

Is there a legitimate reason for this? If median prices reflect market fundamentals, then shouldn’t current prices be higher? Or, does this suggest current RE is overvalued, throwing the median ‘out of whack’?

Median prices are not useful information especially over longer term. They are too sensitive to cross-sectional shifts.

Welcome back TWIT!

MP, I am backing out of the bet since there is no sushi.

Median prices are not useful information especially over longer term. They are too sensitive to cross-sectional shifts.

Ok, that makes sense. Still, I find it strange, even when comparing housing in different towns/price points, they average 25% less. At this end, I'm just trying to build a model for reasonable valuation, since everything is out of whack. Any thoughts on that? One method I've taken is looking at pre-bubble home sales, taking those prices, and adding 5% annually (generous, imo). Comparing current prices to those rough estimates, I find current listings at 140-200% (of 5% annual growth). Any better methods/ideas please share--thanks!

I think the next topic should be : "Potluck? When and Where." :lol:

BayQT~

Don’t forget…as I mentioned before, the ditech site sometimes lists the “refinanced” amount, so it may indeed *not* be the last sales price. It may affect the outcome of what you are looking for.

Really? Hmmm...thanks! Well, maybe I can find some inside realtor angle to get accurate stats.

Really? Hmmm…thanks! Well, maybe I can find some inside realtor angle to get accurate stats.

Yes. I explained in a previous post but the jest of it is that I know the history of a couple different properties, including the sales price, and when they were refinanced. For both properties there is inconsistency. For one, it lists $0.00 for last sales price, and the refinance date for last sale date(property was purchased in 1988) For the other, last sale date and amount are correct....BUT, both of these properties were refinanced in 1999.

Note also that ditech has changed the format of that appraisal page....more simplified. Plus they have added a security system of sorts to "prevent unfair use".

BayQT~

Chan

The best way to deal with MP when he is in a 'mood' is to just ignore him. Insults don't bother him, in fact I think he likes the attention the insults bring. But being ignored is like kryptonite, it utterly destroys him.

chan: this is your warning

Regardless of your feelings about MP's (admittedly dubious) claims, please keep any criticism non-personal and civil. He hasn't gotten nasty or personal since the "incident", nor I do not want to see another flame war erupt which forces me to censor you both.

is it possible to short mortgage backed securities?

Yes, for the big guys like hedge funds there are many ways...

I do not know if there is a "retail" way to do it. I want to know myself.

what is the problem? regulation or the amount of capital needed?

Mostly capital and relationship with derivative/financial firms. You will to borrow MBS in order to short them... you need to find a lender. Also, you are responsible for the cashflow (interest payments) if you short a debt instrument.

Moreover, you need to carefully hedge away interest rate risks. otherwise, you bet against MBS will turn into a bet against interest rates. If you can do all this, and is well capitalized... aren't you a hedge fund already? ;)

(Not investment advice)

when were the hedge fund regulations introduced?

I thought hedge funds are mostly unregulated investment partnerships. I believe they are trying to regulate them a bit now.

is there already a hedge fund that shorts MBSs?

Hedge funds are private. They do not need to disclose their holdings/positions.

Bears/Bulls,

I think we have gotten stuck. Stuck, not being able to stay on topic....and stuck, giving attention to an individual who clearly (as SactoQT said) likes the attention...revels in it.

Suggestion: If this topic has gotten stale already, let's admit that and move on to another one. Harm's last post in the Lurker's Turn thread (see, Harm, I told you I was going back to read it. :-) ) recommended that we discuss "Appraisal Fraud". It's a good topic, and one that affects a lot of people in various situations, different communities, etc, and no one to protect them or look out for their interests. Ironically, the ones they trust are the very people who are sticking the knife in and turning it. It is rampant and many stories have turned up in the media.

So now that some of the deer have been caught in the headlights, how do you think that this will be corrected moving forward? The FBI is involved in many of these cases right now. Do you think that the government set down any new rules....perhaps the realty industry will initiate something to save face?

What do you think?

BayQT~

Jack,

Of course, I know that we get off topic and yes, the trolls will follow. But it would be a fresh start. That's all I was saying.

Has anyone actually LEARNED anything ?

I don't think I deserved that. I have been a positive contributor to the blog, and was just trying to help.

BayQT~

"I just find it funny that the redundancy and predictability doesn't have everyone fed up by now."

*DING*

It's going to be an amazing five days, watching housing prices in the bay area decline by 10% per day...

@peter re: golf, it goes. Some up, lots of down. re: party, sure. patrick knows my email. I'll bring the scotch. Scapa 14, if no one objects.

@sqt: Slammed. More posting later. Kinda bored of the bubble topic to be honest, and one reaches ones smugness quotient fairly quickly when reading threads here now. Hope things are good in sac.

Chewbacca,
prat

Chan/Jack/BayQt,

I think we still manage to pack in quite a bit of information here, despite you-know-who's comments. Ironically, arguing back and forth with MP & Peter over the definition of "inverted yield curve" forced me to really think about it, and prompted some useful input from other posters, like HEPfinance. Interesting how an opponent --whether your opponent's arguments are good or not-- has the effect of sharpening your own arguments.

Like Shmend Rick says, at his best MP provides a foil and occasionally some comic relief. When he just brags and makes no sense (often), then we can just chuckle and move on to other things. As long as he (and everyone else) behaves and doesn't get nasty & personal, I see no grounds for booting him off. And like SactoQt and others often point out, if you don't want to see more MP posts, just don't address or provoke him.

I hope we can finally put this topic to rest...?

Ha Ha

I don't know much about mortgage products, but I've heard that it is possible to opt for a permanent neg amortization loan that continues to balloon pretty much as long as you hold on to the property. The logic I guess is that you can sell or refi before the payment exceeds the value of the home or you can just let the balance grow if you plan on never moving. (how stupid would that be)

But I'm guessing the article you posted was being ironic, at least I certainly hope so.

Re:troll

Ignore ignore ignore. If no one ever talked to him he would dissappear. Granted, I've talked to him in his more civil moods but I'm beginning to think it's a waste of time. For the most part he just drags down the blog and it seems like too many interesting people are opting not to post anymore. Is it worth offending quality people to keep one marginal personality around? I don't think so.

BayQt - working on that new thread (Appraisal Fraud).

Like Shmend Rick says, at his best MP provides a foil and occasionally some comic relief. When he just brags and makes no sense (often), then we can just chuckle and move on to other things. As long as he (and everyone else) behaves and doesn’t get nasty & personal, I see no grounds for booting him off. And like SactoQt and others often point out, if you don’t want to see more MP posts, just don’t address or provoke him.

*sigh*

Thanks, Harm....only if you think it's time. If not, I (and I'm sure the others) can wait.

BayQT~

Sometimes I have very little tact.

In print, my “tone” can look angry when what I thought I was expressing was incredulousness! I am sorry. If you recall I was second to welcome you back!

I appreciate your post, Jack.

BayQT~

Btw, did anyone read Primetroll's latest masterpiece?