patrick.net

chan: this is your warning

Regardless of your feelings about MP's (admittedly dubious) claims, please keep any criticism non-personal and civil. He hasn't gotten nasty or personal since the "incident", nor I do not want to see another flame war erupt which forces me to censor you both.

is it possible to short mortgage backed securities?

Yes, for the big guys like hedge funds there are many ways...

I do not know if there is a "retail" way to do it. I want to know myself.

what is the problem? regulation or the amount of capital needed?

Mostly capital and relationship with derivative/financial firms. You will to borrow MBS in order to short them... you need to find a lender. Also, you are responsible for the cashflow (interest payments) if you short a debt instrument.

Moreover, you need to carefully hedge away interest rate risks. otherwise, you bet against MBS will turn into a bet against interest rates. If you can do all this, and is well capitalized... aren't you a hedge fund already? ;)

(Not investment advice)

when were the hedge fund regulations introduced?

I thought hedge funds are mostly unregulated investment partnerships. I believe they are trying to regulate them a bit now.

is there already a hedge fund that shorts MBSs?

Hedge funds are private. They do not need to disclose their holdings/positions.

Bears/Bulls,

I think we have gotten stuck. Stuck, not being able to stay on topic....and stuck, giving attention to an individual who clearly (as SactoQT said) likes the attention...revels in it.

Suggestion: If this topic has gotten stale already, let's admit that and move on to another one. Harm's last post in the Lurker's Turn thread (see, Harm, I told you I was going back to read it. :-) ) recommended that we discuss "Appraisal Fraud". It's a good topic, and one that affects a lot of people in various situations, different communities, etc, and no one to protect them or look out for their interests. Ironically, the ones they trust are the very people who are sticking the knife in and turning it. It is rampant and many stories have turned up in the media.

So now that some of the deer have been caught in the headlights, how do you think that this will be corrected moving forward? The FBI is involved in many of these cases right now. Do you think that the government set down any new rules....perhaps the realty industry will initiate something to save face?

What do you think?

BayQT~

Jack,

Of course, I know that we get off topic and yes, the trolls will follow. But it would be a fresh start. That's all I was saying.

Has anyone actually LEARNED anything ?

I don't think I deserved that. I have been a positive contributor to the blog, and was just trying to help.

BayQT~

"I just find it funny that the redundancy and predictability doesn't have everyone fed up by now."

*DING*

It's going to be an amazing five days, watching housing prices in the bay area decline by 10% per day...

@peter re: golf, it goes. Some up, lots of down. re: party, sure. patrick knows my email. I'll bring the scotch. Scapa 14, if no one objects.

@sqt: Slammed. More posting later. Kinda bored of the bubble topic to be honest, and one reaches ones smugness quotient fairly quickly when reading threads here now. Hope things are good in sac.

Chewbacca,
prat

Chan/Jack/BayQt,

I think we still manage to pack in quite a bit of information here, despite you-know-who's comments. Ironically, arguing back and forth with MP & Peter over the definition of "inverted yield curve" forced me to really think about it, and prompted some useful input from other posters, like HEPfinance. Interesting how an opponent --whether your opponent's arguments are good or not-- has the effect of sharpening your own arguments.

Like Shmend Rick says, at his best MP provides a foil and occasionally some comic relief. When he just brags and makes no sense (often), then we can just chuckle and move on to other things. As long as he (and everyone else) behaves and doesn't get nasty & personal, I see no grounds for booting him off. And like SactoQt and others often point out, if you don't want to see more MP posts, just don't address or provoke him.

I hope we can finally put this topic to rest...?

Ha Ha

I don't know much about mortgage products, but I've heard that it is possible to opt for a permanent neg amortization loan that continues to balloon pretty much as long as you hold on to the property. The logic I guess is that you can sell or refi before the payment exceeds the value of the home or you can just let the balance grow if you plan on never moving. (how stupid would that be)

But I'm guessing the article you posted was being ironic, at least I certainly hope so.

Re:troll

Ignore ignore ignore. If no one ever talked to him he would dissappear. Granted, I've talked to him in his more civil moods but I'm beginning to think it's a waste of time. For the most part he just drags down the blog and it seems like too many interesting people are opting not to post anymore. Is it worth offending quality people to keep one marginal personality around? I don't think so.

BayQt - working on that new thread (Appraisal Fraud).

Like Shmend Rick says, at his best MP provides a foil and occasionally some comic relief. When he just brags and makes no sense (often), then we can just chuckle and move on to other things. As long as he (and everyone else) behaves and doesn’t get nasty & personal, I see no grounds for booting him off. And like SactoQt and others often point out, if you don’t want to see more MP posts, just don’t address or provoke him.

*sigh*

Thanks, Harm....only if you think it's time. If not, I (and I'm sure the others) can wait.

BayQT~

Sometimes I have very little tact.

In print, my “tone” can look angry when what I thought I was expressing was incredulousness! I am sorry. If you recall I was second to welcome you back!

I appreciate your post, Jack.

BayQT~

Btw, did anyone read Primetroll's latest masterpiece?

For the most part he just drags down the blog and it seems like too many interesting people are opting not to post anymore. Is it worth offending quality people to keep one marginal personality around? I don’t think so.

Ok, I guess we're NOT quite done with this subject, so...

Here's the problem with the "ban the troll" approach: the last time I threatened to boot MP, we had a vote and it ended up about 60% in favor of keeping him. When Peter P actually DID ban him, there was a sizeable outcry in favor of restoring him, so clearly this sentiment is not 100% shared by everyone here.

However....

If a majority of bloggers here feel that he is causing irrepairable harm (no pun intended) and his presence is directly responsible for keeping you from participating, then let me know now and I'll take care of it.

I want ANOTHER show of hands: Can you live with MP or is his presence here so offensive that you want to leave and/or stop posting?

Btw, if a majority votes to ban, there will be no going back this time. I will ask Patrick to filter all of his comments and I will not ask him to reverse that decision if any of you regret that decision later on.

I guess we need a vote deadline: how does midnight tomorrow sound?

New thread: Appraisal Fraud

Don't forget to vote before you bail on this thread.

Having MP turn it down a peg or two would probably be asking too much. Sometimes he adds a little flavor, sometimes he is downright annoying. However, when the conversation begins to revolve around him, I may make a comment but for the most part I elect to stay in the background. My observation is that some of the regular contributors are doing the same since I don't see their posts as often as before. But then again, they may just be taking a break, or just waiting for the next topic.

BayQT~

Possibly useful content:

http://tinyurl.com/762du

I can feel interest rekindling. This is bad.

Chewbacca,
prat

BayQT, so is it thumbs up or down for you?

It's amazing how weak we are. So easily baited into argument-like-discussions trying to counter largely nonsensical statements with points that will be ignored.

I don't actually want to persuade MP or anyone else to agree with my opinions, but it's impossible to learn anything from the discussions MP half-engages in. As it's been said, always on transmit, never on receive.

I don't think it's feasible to ignore him. It only takes one hasty response to start an avalanche... Even if today's voting population could manage to hold back, newcomers wouldn't, and the cycle would repeat.

At the end of the day, anything that encourages people like Zephyr and Veritas and Prat to contribute (all missing lately), and discourages arrogant verbal masturbation...is good for the community.

I hate the appearance that I'm voting to squelch someone with a contrary opinion (and I wouldn't have done so last time around), but I think it would be best.

I hope, truthfully, that MP will reregister with a new name and contribute in a less antisocial way.

Lacking other options, I vote to ban.

I think the blog in general has seen a major loss of quality and whenever a flame war erupts it generally involves the same person. I have actually seen him post the same post 3x's trying to get a response, so I know it's all about attention.

The only reason I would vote to keep him is to see if he actually keeps his bet and shows up for sushi. Then we'd actually know if he's the real deal. If he wiggles out of the bet or the pay off phase, then we know it's all a sham. But the thought of having to put up with a bunch of BS in the meantime... I'm not sure I'd stick around if the threads keep deteriorating. Lately I show up to make a few lame jokes and that's about it. I'm wondering if the topic is getting stale or I'm just tired of wading through a bunch of meaningless babble. I don't know....

I wasn't in on the last vote (probably during my break), but I'll go with a thumbs up. I'll just ignore him. Let's see how the others vote.

BayQT~

@SactoQT: I agree. If the threads were half the length, but we didn't spend any time discussing MP, it would be a huge improvement.

Let's get this over with as quickly as possible, so we don't waste even more time on the subject, okay? I want a thumbs up or down on MP from EVERYONE --not just regulars.

Prat, SactoQt, Peter P, Jack (need I ask?), TWIT, Gabby, Shmend Rick, Zephyr, Mr. Right, astrid (again, need I ask?), Yuan, Kurt S, Veritas, News, AntiTroll, primetroll, chan, SIM, hymie, pbass, ptiemann, SoldAtThePeak, Dipanjan, laverty, SiliconValleyRenter, NervousinOakland, Van Kouver, Jamie, Karrie, matt_walsh, Surfer-X, Cattle, Economist...

Still waiting... what'll it be ??

I think quesera's right, ignoring hasn't worked because there is always someone who'll answer. Maybe better to ban because intelligent people are leaving in disgust.

Ban and be done with it.

I'm pretty doctrinaire about free speech, but sadly he's made the site measurably worse off for both sides of the debate. He's free to start his own no-doubt heavily traffic'd blog and discuss the finer points how how much better his life is than everyone elses there. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but...

[mortal-kombat-voice] finish him [/mortal-kombat-voice]

Cheers,
prat

Harm

It just occured to me that my tolerance for MP has probably waned because I haven't had any poetry from primetroll to make it bearable. I think it was AntiTroll who offered to make MP some fugu, blindfolded no less. I wish MP would take him up on his offer. :twisted:

Actually the fugu reference was from primetroll's latest Haiku masterpiece --see his 6:20 post. ;-)

Oh my goodness, I got my people mixed up and didn't even realize primetroll was still making it interesting. What's wrong with me? Too much white noise I think...

@MarinaPrime,

How on earth did this last post create such a fuss? Harm, News.. are you guys trying to ban me b/c we have this bet? That’s really weak guys. And then, i read some guy named ‘Chan’ calling me a POS asshole etc etc. When have i ever used a swear word or put down anybody?

Even when provoked, i keep it pretty civil

If you had bothered to read the entire thread you would have known that the bet or lack of civility on your part had nothing to do with it. And btw, I've deleted Chan's comments and gave him a warning.

I really don't care one way or the other. Problem is, many others on this blog DO care, and your presence appears to be keeping many of them away. I don't like having to play the role of censor, but that's the way it is. I'm sorry, but it seems to have come down to either you or everyone else --we'll know by tonight anyway.

Peter, SactoQt,

I'm going to be tied up until late tonight, so can you please monitor the active threads for me (if a flame war erupts, send the offenders' IPs to Patrick, etc.)? Thanks.

So are we still supposed to vote? I will just in case. I personally would just say keep MP around for the sake of freedom of speech, because I find it easy to ignore his comments when they get overly useless (and I do think he's bizarrely--and unintentionally--funny), but if he's keeping intelligent posters away...I have to vote to ban. :-(

But who will be the voice of dissent? Where's Fake P? I miss him.

Jamie,

Yes...For all who have not voted, per Harm's last post the deadline is still midnight tonight.

BayQT~

Re MP, I vote "abstain".

Well, MP has made his final farewell, twice. Yet promised to check in at the end of the year. :roll:

Maybe we can have an actual discussion now.

changing his name to Scrooge McDuck.

LOL :lol: