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Unity


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2006 Aug 10, 2:11pm   31,373 views  274 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Unity

The housing bubble brought us together. A few brave blogs like Patrick.net provided a forum where we were able to find others like ourselves: people who dared to question soaring house prices and all the insanity that went along with them.

We were ridiculed. Not for a difference of religion, politics, age or wealth. But because we were all suddenly in the same place. We were outsiders. Contrarians.

But we found inspiration in one another. Many of us drew strength from this community; strength we needed to follow through on our convictions. Sometimes this put us at odds with co-workers, neighbors, friends, family, even spouses. But we had each other; and we knew we weren't crazy, everyone else was.

Now we know we were right. The herd awakens to that reality and slowly (or quickly) thunders back to where we are.

And so breaks our Unity?

For a short time, at least, we experienced the potential of a diverse group able to rise above ideology and partisanship.

--Randy H

#housing

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56   DinOR   2006 Aug 11, 2:21am  

SFWoman,

What's worse is that fire has this natural tendency to reach out and "grab you". The theory goes that as it voraciously consumes oxygen it creates a vacuum and actually draws flammable material into it. In this case YOU!

There have been so many advances since I worked in that field I doubt I could get through the "volunteer exam" these days.

57   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:23am  

This lack of financial understanding will lead to more self inflicted “un-doing” than anyone else could to you.

It may not be about financial understanding. Some people choose to believe in the best case scenario. I choose to consider the worst case scenario. This is why I am always depressed. :(

58   Claire   2006 Aug 11, 2:25am  

Peter P,

If anywhere will be soft, it probably will be Mountain View, worse luck for me :-( I'm also interested in a house with a garden, so any bargains in the condo, townhouse market are out :-(

59   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:25am  

What’s worse is that fire has this natural tendency to reach out and “grab you”.

The other theory: IF you are fated to die you will. I thought the word "fatal" comes out of the word "fate".

60   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 2:26am  

the_Lingus,

This is a RE blog first and foremost, and while politics comes up, it's improper to inject politics into your every comment - that goes for politics on the left and the right. Indeed, doing so, especially when your politics radically differ from others on the site and when you're not willing to listen to the other side, is highly disruptive and liable to get you banned even if you do have good points.

61   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:28am  

If anywhere will be soft, it probably will be Mountain View, worse luck for me I’m also interested in a house with a garden, so any bargains in the condo, townhouse market are out.

Why Mountain View? Some condo/townhouses have gardens. Some SFHs only have small decks.

Will you consider Campbell? I may probably look there.

62   DinOR   2006 Aug 11, 2:29am  

Claire,

At this point, wether or not she/he claims they didn't read or understand really doesn't matter. They signed it, "I mean that IS your signature, is it not"? The other thing that was shocking was that the couple originally listed their MI home for 400K, now they're asking 270K! It will be so hard in the near future to determine who was truly an innocent (and who was a sophisticated debtor). No, I don't believe I invented the term.

Much of the "precedent" for our newly enacted FB laws will be contingent on:

Is this your first home purchase? No?

Is this the first time you've used a NAAVLP? No?

Do you own more than one property? Yes?

You're screwed. Next case.

63   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 2:32am  

George,

Good article.

The way I see it, if you give your parents money, they need to give you a share of control over their budget - at least enough to see that your money doesn't get wasted and hopefully enough to control their total budget so they can live within their means.

It's not as if parents would go absolutely destitute in this society anyways. There's tons of subsidized over 62 housing affordable on social security. That's not a lifestyle that gives access to whirlwind vacations or golf everyday, but if the spendthrift parents wanted that, they should have planned and saved for it.

64   lunarpark   2006 Aug 11, 2:36am  

I grew up in Mountain View. I still do not understand why anyone would want to live there.

65   Claire   2006 Aug 11, 2:37am  

Peter P,

My daughter is very sensitive to change, and I do not think she will handle a move again too well, so if I can keep her in the same school, it would help a lot. I have not located any townhouses in this area with a decent sized yard yet :-( If I wait 5 years though - the dog will no longer be here - so there won't be a problem there, but everyone likes playing outside a lot.

66   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:38am  

I grew up in Mountain View. I still do not understand why anyone would want to live there.

Google that and you will find out. :)

67   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 2:38am  

Claire,

Why do you want a garden for? If it's attractive landscaping then many condo complexes will probably have better landscaping than you'd achieve on your own. If it's to exercise a green thumb, there might be community garden plots or farm workshare nearby. If it's to see things grow through the seasons, might I suggest bonsai?

I wouldn't buy in BA now though, unless you can afford to lose 30-50% of the value of the house if you're forced to sell at the low point. Otherwise, there's always the risk the purchase will totally ruin your financial life.

68   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:41am  

Claire, if school is a constraint then it may be more of a problem.

69   Claire   2006 Aug 11, 2:42am  

lunarpark,

You know, if we could move to another state we would, but we are tied here with my husband's job at the minute. Mountain View is close to where he works (15 min drive) and the school district is okay, there could be a lot worse places to live. When we moved here, there were very few rental properties available in the whole of the surrounding area for what we could afford, and you should have see the state some of them were in when we were searching. So we ended up here.

70   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:42am  

Well, renting is not so bad anyway. Don't worry.

71   lunarpark   2006 Aug 11, 2:43am  

"Google that and you will find out."

Even Google cannot answer this question...

Actually I understand the 94040, 94043 remains a mystery.

72   lunarpark   2006 Aug 11, 2:44am  

Claire,

It was nothing personal against you - sorry if I sounded that way. I just really didn't care for growing up in Mountain View. I looked forward to my parents sending me to Ohio for the summer.

73   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:44am  

Even Google cannot answer this question…

Because Google IS the answer? ;)

74   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 2:45am  

Claire,

If you have only one daughter, maybe private school would be a cheaper bet than buying into a good school district at this time. Otherwise, maybe go look for a landlord who owned a property for more than 10 years and get a lease with the option to renew for at least the next 3 years. Or live in an apartment in a decent school district.

These aren't perfect alternatives, but they could be better than the alternative of being locked into an overpriced home you can't get rid of.

75   lunarpark   2006 Aug 11, 2:47am  

"Because Google IS the answer?"

Perhaps :p

76   Randy H   2006 Aug 11, 2:48am  

Patrick.net will have as much luck in banning me as Benny and his **** Robert Cote. Besides, patrick.net admin doesn’t ...
...the_Lingus

Two years without a single banning. Now 2 in less than 7 days. As traffic on this blog grows it may become very difficult to police the Trolls.

---

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77   Claire   2006 Aug 11, 2:49am  

Astrid,

The garden if for the dog - if there's not a six foot fence, he'll take himself for a walk, if there's a garbage can next to the fence, he'll use that to get over the fence. Also, the kids just love playing outside, but I do not like the idea of "free range".

We're not going to buy at the current prices, that's why I'm a little disappointed that the house prices aren't dropping like a stone yet. I can't see how a house here is worth 4 times what it's worth in other states. And I am concerned that one day everybody else will realize this, and then the prices would drop. Or is that wishful thinking?

78   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:53am  

The garden if for the dog - if there’s not a six foot fence, he’ll take himself for a walk, if there’s a garbage can next to the fence, he’ll use that to get over the fence. Also, the kids just love playing outside, but I do not like the idea of “free range”.

However, for the money saved you can just hire someone to walk your dog. We would love to have a garden for our cats too. :(

79   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 2:54am  

I can’t see how a house here is worth 4 times what it’s worth in other states.

In NY, a 650 sqft studio can cost up to 2.5M.

80   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 2:56am  

Randy,

You didn't even ban Marinara Prime?

Claire,

Indeed! CA is not family friendly at all.

81   Claire   2006 Aug 11, 2:57am  

astrid,

Luckily, our landlord has owned the property for over 10 years, we've been here 3 1/2 years now, he has just put our rent up for the first time, but by $150, 7 % increase. We stretched into our rental property in the first place, so that amount is still a lot to us to have to find extra. We definitely couldn't afford private school, besides I do not think that private school actually makes much difference as long as the kids are doing okay, the important part is doing well in University.

My husband works for a start-up (not Google).

82   Randy H   2006 Aug 11, 2:59am  

You didn’t even ban Marinara Prime?

I didn't get that honor. He was banned before the admins got banning power. It used to be only Patrick could hand down a permaban.

83   DinOR   2006 Aug 11, 2:59am  

Randy H,

Funny! I just couldn't even begin to understand where the guy was coming from? Ben Jones IS able to make his bills running the blog, and that's great! I'm sure he could make a lot more elsewhere but he runs it of a love for the game. He, like Patrick are concerned about this housing situation and we're no more to them than Adam! I've NEVER heard Ben or Patrick interject their own beliefs and we all know what a "political lightning rod" I am! Sheesh.

84   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 3:01am  

You didn’t even ban Marinara Prime?

Freudian slip? How about some pasta? :)

85   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 3:02am  

Peter P,

But that's only true in a few outrageously overpriced downtown and midtown Manhattan locations. Most NYC housing is not nearly so expensive and there's more apartment rentals available.

NYC is also financial services dominated and those jobs tend to pay better than tech nerd jobs prevalent in BA.

86   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 3:09am  

"he has just put our rent up for the first time, but by $150, 7 % increase"

Yep, though that adds up to only 2% a year. My boyfriend got that dollar amount hike after just one year of renting a small one bedroom apartment.

87   Randy H   2006 Aug 11, 3:11am  

DinOR,

It was the fact that (s)he singled out you to flame that immediately tipped her/him off as a Troll.

Hint to Trolls: try not to pick one of the least controversial regulars as your flame target. lol

88   Randy H   2006 Aug 11, 3:12am  

When will the MSM start printing articles about prices?? Everything I see is rates, rates, rates.

Today's CNN.com Business headliner:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/08/11/real_estate/bubble_sitting/index.htm

89   DinOR   2006 Aug 11, 3:13am  

I've got to believe there will have to be some kind of "suitability test" for FB "victims". If you have a G.E.D, work third shift at a turkey processing plant and got snookered into a neg. am. on a house you clearly can not afford, yeah, I'd take the case on a contingency basis!

Should compensation be as automatic for our friends over at SDCIA?

I'm doubting it. Will there be a lot of folks with MBA's attempting to claim they are innocents? Oh yeah. Where do we draw the line as to who and who should not be compensable under the newly minted FBNABORA?

That's the "FB Needin' A Bail Out Relief Act" for those unfamiliar with the legislation.

90   astrid   2006 Aug 11, 3:16am  

"I’m doubting it. Will there be a lot of folks with MBA’s attempting to claim they are innocents? Oh yeah. Where do we draw the line as to who and who should not be compensable under the newly minted FBNABORA?"

It doesn't matter who is screwed by dropping housing prices. The government should not be in the business of handing out free options.

91   Randy H   2006 Aug 11, 3:24am  

Many of my MBA cohort were using IO loans. Ostensibly, they knew what they were doing. (In at least one case, he really did know what he was doing and he was pulling off a really beautiful personal credit arbitrage).

92   Peter P   2006 Aug 11, 3:25am  

We may want to regularly delete messages with IP starting 200.*.*.*

Nothing good comes out from there. Too bad WP does not support pattern matching in moderation.

93   DinOR   2006 Aug 11, 3:28am  

astrid,

Absolutely! I was just having fun with it. Much of what I see, percieve and relate to is as it relates to securities markets so in my mind (FWIW) any "compensation" should come directly from the lenders (if at all).

For me to approach YOU as a client and say, "astrid, I don't care where you get the money, borrow a ski mask if you have to but you've GOT to own this telecom start up"! would be perfectly suitable given your level of sophistication.

For me to approach your FOLKS with the same scenario would be totally unsuitable! Should the same distinctions be made on the lending side? Really. I'm asking, not telling.

94   Randy H   2006 Aug 11, 3:28am  

BayBear,

That was the opinion of the CEO of Toll. Read his agenda as you see fit.

Historical data shows that mortgage rates are correlated to house prices about average. Not uncorrelated, but certainly not perfectly inversely correlated. There have been quite notable periods of time when rates went up, and so did prices, and vice versa.

95   DinOR   2006 Aug 11, 3:36am  

BayBear,

Loved your comment about "rates aren't the problem" btw!

I'm not sure the article "proved" conclusively that prices will start up again after a brief stabilization period. Would realtors and owners LOVE to see that? Sure (so would I if I was in over my head).

Anyone "scripting" a hasty recovery had best be twice as careful about their position as the bears at this point!

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