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What will the GOP be like in 10 years?


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2013 Oct 11, 4:16am   86,759 views  242 comments

by edvard2   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

This is a semi-serious question. Some of you probably are well-aware that I am definitely someone who leans left. That wasn't actually always the case. My Dad, Grandparents, Aunts, and Uncles were all staunch Republicans. I was sort of in the middle, as in I recall my Grandmother telling me that it was "Generally a good idea" to vote Republican at a very young age and so for a few years I simply saw them as the Good guys. It really wasn't until after college that I paid attention to much of anything political and so as time went on, I became more and more liberal in my views. I am projecting here, but I will speak for myself that many of those more liberal opinions came from my experiences being around people from other places and other backgrounds and from hearing their differing views and opinions. Where I grew up everyone had been there for sometimes over 200 years and things were more static. I am not trying to say that's all bad. With that came a very unique culture.

But moving on, I can't help but feel that the GOP has some growing pains ahead. Today I was watching the news and Ted Cruz was at some sort of social conservative event and the news channel was broadcasting what he was saying live. The rhetoric he was using was so far from being rational that it was painful. I also strongly believe that the views being expressed there were appealing only to a very small, far-right segment of the GOP constituency. To be fair, there are equally ridiculous far-left sections of the Democratic constituency that I also find ridiculous. Insomuch I believe that more than less of the GOP constituency is more moderate than far right.

But seemingly this far-right brand of Republican politics seems to take center stage all the time now. We're seeing this with the government shut down. While I didn't vote for McCain ( because of his decision as running mate) He along with a number of other GOP leaders seem to be some of the most reasonable people in this whole thing. How come people like he are not more decisive in this? I have a number of friends who are absolutely as Republican as they come. Yet they also have common sense and though we don't agree on things, they have my respect. They- like myself- do not agree with many of the socially conservative and asinine economic demands that the far right faction of the GOP has.

So when I saw Ted Cruz speaking today, I couldn't help but feel that the GOP needs to get this sort of idealogical divide under control. Part of me would be delighted to see the GOP fade into memory. But like it or not, you HAVE to have more than one party because that brings restraint and debate to government policy.

So with that said, where do you see the GOP in 10 years time? Let's try and keep this one civil.

#politics

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136   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:17am  

thomaswong.1986 says

there is no reason the same parts cannot be made in the USA. Why buy inferior made foreign parts when we can do a better job be it Autos or Tech equipment ? If your unable to see a vision or execute to make it happen, whats the point of calling yourself a entrepreneur claiming a Liberal policy would be better given all the failures of the pa

Because in many cases making a particular part in the US doesn't make financial sense. Just because a part if foreign doesn't mean its inferior. Case in point: Toyota, Honda, and Nissan are all near the top of the overall quality and reliability charts. In fact, we've always imported some number of foreign-sourced components for manufactured goods as long as we've been a country.

But for example, you might have- say- a component that is made in Japan. That part might be imported to the US not because we can't make it. but perhaps because at the time a newer and more efficient factory happened to exist in Japan and so the costs were lower. Likewise we actually make quite a few parts for Japanese and European automakers because we might have better tooling and logistics for one plant in the US rather than a similar one overseas.

What's clear is that US automakers are doing very well and in the end its about the finished product. Ironically the most American cars you can buy are all Japanese brands, with the highest percentage of domestically produced content than any other make.

137   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 7:22am  

edvard2 says

Like I said- if there are those who simply can't stand liberal areas, well there are parts of the country that are very, very conservative where one who might lean right would never-ever have to worry about anyone ever disagreeing with them and be assured that each and every election would result in the vast majority giving their vote to whoever the GOP candidate might be. It would be an absolute environment of total political predictability.

In the SFBA ... look at SF and Oakland.. huge cities with skilled people large population been around for 100s of years.. what have they done over the past 50 years but decline economically.

on the other hand, drive 40-50 miles south to Santa Clara.. the opposite is true.. Economic boom from 1960s to 2000...

Since year 2000 with greater anti business climate the South Bay is also facing economic challenges due to Govt polices and high costs.

you been brainwashed into thinking somehow Conservative economic policies dont work and somehow are less progressive not benefiting society as a whole.. History shows otherwise.

138   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 7:27am  

edvard2 says

Likewise we actually make quite a few parts for Japanese and European automakers because we might have better tooling and logistics for one plant in the US rather than a similar one overseas.

And you will find many Auto makers rather work in Red states vs Blue states.. why is that ?

My previous point is simple.. we can do both if govt policies change to increase employment
domestic. Im still waiting for Maserati to be made in the USA.. and why not ?

Why should a Camero engine be made in Australia.. we can do that in the states as well ?

139   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:28am  

thomaswong.1986 says

In the SFBA ... look at SF and Oakland.. huge cities with skilled people large population been around for 100s of years.. what have they done over the past 50 years but decline economically.

Whu? Sorry but that makes zero sense. Seeing as how SF is having a veriafiable boom, was barely scratched during the recession, and at this point has such a huge demand for housing due to the extreme amount of young professionals looking for work that now Oakland is also experiencing a sort of boom on its own as those people from SF move in, I fail to see how those areas have declined... because they ain't.thomaswong.1986 says

you been brainwashed into thinking somehow Conservative economic policies dont work and somehow are less progressive not benefiting society as a whole.. History shows otherwise.

No. I've read my history and what I am saying to you is that no- I am not saying that "conservative economic policies" can't work. But your assertion that the Bay Area has conservative economics to thank for today's success is a bunch of total baloney and rubbish.

140   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:29am  

thomaswong.1986 says

And you will find many Auto makers rather work in Red states vs Blue states.. why is that

Easy. Because they pay their employees in those areas less. If you want to explain to me how lower wages are a shining benefit to red state economics then I would absolutely love to hear it.

141   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:30am  

thomaswong.1986 says

My previous point is simple.. we can do both if govt policies change to increase employment

domestic. Im still waiting for Maserati to be made in the USA.. and why not ?

Why should a Camero engine be made in Australia.. we can do that in the states as well ?

Like I said before- because companies that make cars are like any other. They do so to make money, and with that comes the decisions which help ensure those profits. If its cheaper or more advantageous to make an engine elsewhere, then why would you make it in the US if that proved to cost more and eat into company profits?

142   Entitlemented   2013 Oct 15, 7:31am  

My Dad, Grandpa, Grandmas, were all Republicans also. My wifes Dad Granpa, Grandmas were all Republican. Each of them was relatively poor when they got out of high school (if they graduated high school), that they succeeded are like multiple American success stories.

Now the offspring are all Democrats, except for me. All the offspring are benefiting tremendously from the funds left by their Republican family members. Not one of them has a good work ethic.

They say that the Republicans have killed the middle class, why work hard.

None of them have jobs that are as useful to society, none of them have attempted to get educated like their Grandpas. (One Granpa has 2 degrees in Civil Engineering).

One Granpa works 40 hours per day in his mid seventies, and its hush discussion why the young ones dont work as hard as Grandpa.

That they have no jobis a condundren to them and to me.
1. We cannot tell if societal changes have been the cause of their not getting good jobs, because they don't apply to good jobs, and dont apply themselves in general.
2. We cannot tell that if they had a job like Grandma or Grandpa if they would be as successful because of #1.

In my family its proven: Democrats and the entitlemented attitude, humanities degrees, and lazy attitude reap what they sow. My concern is exactly like Jeffereson and Montesquie said would be a concern in a Republic if the people found that they could vote themselve free funds from the Public Treasury. I have to use such an old overused quote, but it is what has happened.

143   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:34am  

Entitlemented says

My Dad, Grandpa, Grandmas, were all Republicans also. My wifes Dad Granpa, Grandmas were all Republican. Each of them was relatively poor when they got out of high school (if they graduated high school), that they succeeded are like multiple American success stories.

Now the offspring are all Democrats, except for me. All the offspring are benefiting tremendously from the funds left by their Republican family members. Not one of them has a good work ethic.

They say that the Republicans have killed the middle class, why work hard.

None of them have jobs that are as useful to society, none of them have attempted to get educated like their Grandpas. (One Granpa has 2 degrees in Civil Engineering).

Two can play at that game.
I too came from a fairly conservative family. Me and my siblings are all democrats. We also make the highest incomes in the family. So I too could make up some crap that somehow ties my political leanings towards some sort of vague assertion about economic success.

144   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 7:35am  

edvard2 says

Whu? Sorry but that makes zero sense. Seeing as how SF is having a veriafiable boom, was barely scratched during the recession, and at this point has such a huge demand for housing due to the extreme amount of young professionals looking for work that now Oakland is also experiencing a sort of boom on its own as those people from SF move in, I fail to see how those areas have declined...

walk down So of market.. hideous back in the 1980s to 2000 (even to year 2010)...
where was the boom ?
.

today, how much in concessions did the city make to LURE business into the city ?

Tax exemptions proposed to lure Twitter to SF's Mid-Market

http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/tax-exemptions-proposed-to-lure-twitter-to-sfs-mid-market/Content?oid=2169268

Any other company that pays payroll taxes -- those with payrolls above $250,000 -- would also be eligible for the exemption, according to the proposal, which was announced just before today's board meeting and introduced by Kim at the meeting.

145   Entitlemented   2013 Oct 15, 7:37am  

Correction: Several of them have a good work ethic, but several don't.

146   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:39am  

thomaswong.1986 says

walk down So of market.. hideous back in the 1980s to 2000 (even to year 2010)...

where was the boom ?

.

today, how much in concessions did the city make to LURE business into the city ?

Tax exemptions proposed to lure Twitter to SF's Mid-Market

http://www.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/tax-exemptions-proposed-to-lure-twitter-to-sfs-mid-market/Content?oid=2169268

Any other company that pays payroll taxes -- those with payrolls above $250,000 -- would also be eligible for the exemption, according to the proposal, which was announced just before today's board meeting and introduced by Kim at the meeting.

I can find any part of any city across the country and make the exact same claim. That doesn't mean the whole city is doing poorly financially. Not sure what point that was trying to make other than more pointless rhetoric for a point that too was also equally void of factual basis. Next...

147   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 7:45am  

edvard2 says

. If its cheaper or more advantageous to make an engine elsewhere, then why would you make it in the US if that proved to cost more and eat into company profits?

are you sure its about profits or Govt regulations ? what else did the Founder of Sun say about the State of California (see above) ?

here is what Apple CEO said...again much of their products are from BLUE states, who are pro business.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Why can’t you be a made-in-America company?

TIM COOK:
You know, this iPhone, as a matter of fact, the engine in here is made in America. And not only are the engines in here made in America, but engines are made in America and are exported. The glass on this phone is made in Kentucky. And so we’ve been working for years on doing more and more in the United States. Next year, we will do
one of our existing Mac lines in the United States.

BRIAN WILLIAMS:
Let’s say our Constitution was a little different and Barack Obama called you in tomorrow and said, “Get everybody outta China, and do whatever you have to do. Make these, make everything you make in the United States.” What would that do to the price of this device?

TIM COOK:
Honestly, it’s not so much about price it’s about the skills, et cetera. Over time, there are skills that are associated with manufacturing that have left the U.S. Not necessarily people, but the education system stopped producing them.

Read more at http://www.cultofmac.com/204907/tim-cooks-interview-with-nbc-rock-centers-brian-williams/#OmdzW7iHTRQwhZLx.99

148   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 7:54am  

thomaswong.1986 says

are you sure its about profits or Govt regulations ? what else did the Founder of Sun say about the State of California (see above) ?

You are trying to tie politics to overall manufacturing, which isn't going to fly. Manufacturing is one of the most internationally connected industries in the world.

I'll give you a perfect example. The current Buick Lacrosse. Believe it or not I am sort of a car nut so I read up on these things. The Lacrosse exterior was designed at one of the Detroit design studios. Why? Because the studio in question has had a long history and extremely qualified expertise in overall exterior product design. Makes total sense. The interior on the other hand was designed in a Shanghai studio. Why might you ask? One reason is because in China, Buick is the best-selling import brand and it is sold to a more upscale consumer. As such the interiors had been typically more upscale than the American models. So the interior was designed in the Shanghai studio. The car's powertrain was developed in Germany by one of GM's European divisions.

As you cans see, all of these decisions were made for purely logical, logistical, and obvious reasons: One studio had expertise in one area, another studio in another. Could the entire car have been designed entirely in the US? Sure. But would that have meant as good of a product in as timely of a manner? You see, as I previously mentioned before in business, money, NOT politics talks. Decisions are made for financial reasons.

We can't make everything in the US. It would be virtually impossible. Some countries have tried - as in some of the former communist blok countries- but as seen, these were enormous failures.

149   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 7:55am  

edvard2 says

I can find any part of any city across the country and make the exact same claim. That doesn't mean the whole city is doing poorly financially. Not sure what point that was trying to make other than more pointless rhetoric for a point that too was also equally void of factual basis. Next..

SF-Oakland liberal anti - business bashing policies have not worked for decades. they certainly have woke up one day to see Santa Clara rise far above them economically..

You think the raise of California a global economic power came form San Francisco prime or Santa Clara County ? The two have been separate and opposite poles politically and economically for decades.

You try to open a Plant in California .... you can talk to Apple CEO or any other former SV company founders with some past experiences... its all the same.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/20/steve-jobs-biography-obama_n_1022786.html

"You're headed for a one-term presidency," he told Obama at the start of their meeting, insisting that the administration needed to be more business-friendly.

As an example, Jobs described the ease with which companies can build factories in China compared to the United States, where "regulations and unnecessary costs" make it difficult for them.

Jobs also criticized America's education system, saying it was "crippled by union work rules," noted Isaacson. "Until the teachers' unions were broken, there was almost no hope for education reform."

Jobs proposed allowing principals to hire and fire teachers based on merit, that schools stay open until 6 p.m. and that they be open 11 months a year.

150   tatupu70   2013 Oct 15, 7:56am  

thomaswong.1986 says

TIM COOK:

Honestly, it’s not so much about price it’s about the skills, et cetera. Over time, there are skills that are associated with manufacturing that have left the U.S. Not necessarily people, but the education system stopped producing them.

If you believe that, you are much more naïve than I imagined. I work in manufacturing and there is no shortage of workers with the skills. There may be a shortage of skilled workers that will work for the wages Apple wants to pay... And that's why they go overseas.

151   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 7:58am  

edvard2 says

We can't make everything in the US. It would be virtually impossible. Some countries have tried - as in some of the former communist blok countries- but as seen, these were enormous failures.

you missed China and Japan in your above comments.. and it has worked.

152   CDon   2013 Oct 15, 8:00am  

thomaswong.1986 says

In the SFBA ... look at SF and Oakland.. huge cities with skilled people large
population been around for 100s of years.. what have they done over the past 50
years but decline economically.

And yet, by your own admission, home prices in the SFBA have not been declining for the last 50 years now have they?

So if the local economy is so directly related to home prices as you so often want to allude (coupled with your now severely outdated price chart), why haven't house prices in the SFBA been falling for the past 50 years???

So as I see it, you must either do one of the following Thomas either

(A) retract that comment that the SFBA economy has been declining in the last 1/2 century

or

(B) concede that the direction of home prices have little to nothing to do with your view of what constitutes a declining economy.

Incidentally, if you do respond to me, please respond directly to the points raised above. Please do not respond with your usual line of rambling, stream of conscious type retorts that address neither A or B above.

Consider this a test of your intellectual honesty and cognitive capacity here Thomas. So if you ever wish to be taken even remotely seriously here, please do what you can to respond to the points addressed. Good luck...

153   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:03am  

edvard2 says

You are trying to tie politics to overall manufacturing, which isn't going to fly.

like any long term tech veteran will tell you .. its all about MFG.. even SW companies are tied
to Manufacturing.. SW for CAD is tied to mfg as is supply chain software.

overall mfg fuels the middle class and allows many to go beyond mfg. Heck there were many Engineers/Marketing/Finance-Accountant who cut their teeth on the mfg floor.. later to get degrees from night classes and go off into other professions. it was not unusual to see
this in Silicon Valley during the economic boom years.

IT SIMPLY WORKS..

154   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:05am  

CDon says

And yet, by your own admission, home prices in the SFBA have not been declining for the last 50 years now have they?

So if the local economy is so directly related to home prices as you so often want to allude (coupled with your now severely outdated price chart), why haven't house prices in the SFBA been falling for the past 50 years???

they have been relatively flat adjusted for inflation. we did not have irrational behavior of RE as we seen since 2000.

155   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 8:06am  

thomaswong.1986 says

SF-Oakland liberal anti - business bashing policies have not worked for decades. they certainly have woke up one day to see Santa Clara rise far above them economically..

You think the raise of California a global economic power came form San Francisco prime or Santa Clara County ? The two have been separate and opposite poles politically and economically for decades.

Sorry, but wrong again. The overall Bay Area, including those areas not attached to the Santa Clara areas, are some of the most affluent areas in the country. As mentioned in a previous post, I am from a rural, southern part of the country. If you want to see poor, then I suggest taking a trip sometime and seeing what that is like. We're talking not just poor, but in some cases absolute poverty. When I was in high school and middle school, some of my classmates lived in old buses and RVs.

The Bay Area is so ridiculously rich compared to the majority of the country. And so when I read your previous comments, which were in some weird way trying to say that the Bay Area was in decline, that's pretty counterintuitive to reality.thomaswong.1986 says

you missed China and Japan in your above comments.. and it has worked.

Nope. We export a TON of manufactured goods to not only China, and Japan. Got anything else or shall I keep disproving your points?

156   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 8:08am  

thomaswong.1986 says

like any long term tech veteran will tell you .. its all about MFG.. even SW companies are tied

to Manufacturing.. SW for CAD is tied to mfg as is supply chain software.

overall mfg fuels the middle class and allows many to go beyond mfg. Heck there were many Engineers/Marketing/Finance-Accountant who cut their teeth on the mfg floor.. later to get degrees from night classes and go off into other professions. it was not unusual to see

this in Silicon Valley during the economic boom years.

IT SIMPLY WORKS..

Its WORKING still. Again- I am really trying to understand whatever point you seem to try to be desperately making over and over because so far I don't see any facts. Just political opinion.

157   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:09am  

CDon says

(A) retract that comment that the SFBA economy has been declining in the last 1/2 century

which economy ... San Francisco or Santa Clara County... like I said.. they are the opposite and have not been connected from the 60s to year 2000.. Have you seen much of SF during the 80s and 90s ?

158   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:10am  

edvard2 says

Its WORKING still. Again- I am really trying to understand whatever point you seem to try to be desperately making over and over because so far I don't see any facts. Just political opinion.

30 years in the field.. i been here.. as have many others and observed the changes..
I did not need some New York City journalist pumping bull shit lies..

159   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 8:13am  

thomaswong.1986 says

30 years in the field.. i been here.. as have many others and observed the changes..

I did not need some New York City journalist pumping bull shit lies..

I've also been in the field for quite some time, not as long as you, but long enough to see transitional changes. So things change. Yeah? What else is new? Not sure what New York journalists have to do with this...

160   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:18am  

edvard2 says

Sorry, but wrong again. The overall Bay Area, including those areas not attached to the Santa Clara areas, are some of the most affluent areas in the country.

there was NEVER a OVERALL BA Economy.. get over that. The so called affluent areas are all in Marin. Not in SF and not in Santa Clara.. we in SC did ok but we were not over the top rich until the Tech IPO bubble created many wealthy people.. but that was a Ponzi scheme.

What happened to the other people who forked over $300 a share for Yahoo or Ariba stock in late 90s ? Are they AFFLUENT as they saw their wealth drop by 90% ...

When did you ever see a tech stock bubble before from Santa Clara County based companies... NEVER..

161   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 8:23am  

thomaswong.1986 says

there was NEVER a OVERALL BA Economy.. get over that. The so called affluent areas are all in Marin. Not in SF and not in Santa Clara.. we in SC did ok but we were not over the top rich until the Tech IPO bubble created many wealthy people.. but that was a Ponzi scheme.

Of course there is. There are all sorts of indexes and reports regarding the overall Bay Area and its economy. So no need to get over something that doesn't need to be "gotten over". And all the affluent people live in Marin? How long have you lived here again? Hello..... the average house in the majority of the BA is around 500k. So are all of those people dirt-poor who are buying them? Last time I looked you'd better be making somewhere in the neighborhood of about 150k or so in order to buy a house like that.

Again- I am curious what point you are trying to make because thus far.... there have been none. Next...

162   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:24am  

edvard2 says

I've also been in the field for quite some time, not as long as you, but long enough to see transitional changes. So things change. Yeah? What else is new? Not sure what New York journalists have to do with this...

NYC journalist have painted the worst lies ever spoken about SFBA.. they have transplanted their preconceived liberal ideas on the west coast. None had any experience, yet read by many national and intentionally.

the only journalist with real sense was Mike Malone.. and he has done lots of work over the decades that runs counter to what these East coast journalist have written.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_S._Malone

163   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:33am  

edvard2 says

And all the affluent people live in Marin? How long have you lived here again? Hello..... the average house in the majority of the BA is around 500k. So are all of those people dirt-poor who are buying them? Last time I looked you'd better be making somewhere in the neighborhood of about 150k or so in order to buy a house like that.

how do you explain home prices pre-bubble being as low as 100-200K ? Our bubble started with the other bubble in Stocks/IPOs of the late 90s.. the tech stocks were way way over valued and well beyond any rational fundamental valuations.

can you point to prior decades as we had inflated IPO/Tech stock prices. Cisco/Tandem/HP/Intel.. have they also had irrational prices in the 70s and 80s ?

had we not had a Tech stock bubble of the late 90s,,, there would not be a "affluent' south bay or housing bubble. Today, unfortunately many think the late 90s were the standard.. which
it wasnt.. its a Ponzi scheme.

164   CDon   2013 Oct 15, 8:41am  

thomaswong.1986 says

CDon says



(A) retract that comment that the SFBA economy has been declining in the last 1/2 century


which economy ... San Francisco or Santa Clara County... like I said.. they are the opposite and have not been connected from the 60s to year 2000.. Have you seen much of SF during the 80s and 90s ?

Either one really. As per your precious chart, SF AND Santa Clara home prices have been moving in lockstep continuously since 1975.

So again, given that this is the case, if (per your contention) that SF has been in a state of economic decline for 50 years, and Santa Clara has not - how can you possibly explain home prices moving in lockstep for the past (at least) 38 years?

Also, for the record, I appreciate what has thus far been direct and straightforward answers. We shall see if or for how long you are able to continue to focus on the issue at hand.

165   edvard2   2013 Oct 15, 8:44am  

thomaswong.1986 says

NYC journalist have painted the worst lies ever spoken about SFBA.. they have transplanted their preconceived liberal ideas on the west coast. None had any experience, yet read by many national and intentionally

NYC journalists have nothing to do with me or this conversation. Almost everything I have said have come from my own personal, real-life observations as well as from what comes from historical texts.thomaswong.1986 says

had we not had a Tech stock bubble of the late 90s,,, there would not be a "affluent' south bay or housing bubble. Today, unfortunately many think the late 90s were the standard.. which

it wasnt.. its a Ponzi scheme

Then that must be one hell of a long-lasting Ponzi scheme then, seeing as how the tech boom has more or less been going on now for well over 20+ years its current form and in that time, well housing prices have risen dramatically. Sure- there was a housing bubble and lots and lots of irrational spending and so on. But the fact of the matter is that after all of that was done, prices are STILL high, and what's more, the economy is doing very well, so well, that its among the healthiest in the country.

Once more, you have failed to make a point so far. Please make whatever point you are trying to make because otherwise I am seeing nothing that is really valid.

166   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:45am  

edvard2 says

Again- I am curious what point you are trying to make because thus far.... there have been none. Next...

perhaps YOU can explain why a bunch of RED state rural hicks living in Santa Clara County help create a booming economy from nothing more than dirt which included manufacturing and services industries from 1960 to 2000 while the BLUE state progressives from San Francisco - Oakland ( The Gateway to the Orient ) managed to destroy pretty much most of the they inherited from economic heroes a century past.

167   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:50am  

edvard2 says

Then that must be one hell of a long-lasting Ponzi scheme then, seeing as how the tech boom has more or less been going on now for well over 20+ years its current form and in that time, well housing prices have risen dramatically.

you tell me the Price Earnings of many Silicon valley based companies from 1970s to mid 90s.. and compare that to late 90s and even today with some so called Media companies like facebook and linkedin.

If you know the number you would know we did NOT have inflated stock Prices as we seen recently. NO ONE was foolish back than to overpay for such a high risk. Must be hard to understand this.

Had we avoided the irrational exuberance of the late 90s and today.. there would be no Housing Bubble in South Bay.

Besides.. ask the many after 2000 as they saw their inflated stock drop by 90 %... so whats different today vs then ?

168   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 8:58am  

edvard2 says

NYC journalists have nothing to do with me or this conversation. Almost everything I have said have come from my own personal, real-life observations as well as from what comes from historical texts.thomaswong.1986 says

most of what you said.. is no different an narrative we all have read over the past decade.
much of it is inflated and untrue. had anyone of these journalist worked in SV SFBA then the so called history would be different.. i dont blame you.. but do do blame the media for such misinformation.

169   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 9:05am  

CDon says

Either one really. As per your precious chart, SF AND Santa Clara home prices have been moving in lockstep continuously since 1975.

if one was to believe in what the media has portrayed SFBA to be.. one would expect much higher prices decades and decades ago... but that is untrue.

its not SF and Santa Clara only.. but rather all 9 counties had similar RE pricing for a long long time.

my precious chart ...

170   CDon   2013 Oct 15, 9:13am  

thomaswong.1986 says

CDon says



Either one really. As per your precious chart, SF AND Santa Clara home prices have been moving in lockstep continuously since 1975.


if one was to believe in what the media has portrayed SFBA to be.. one would expect much higher prices decades and decades ago... but that is untrue.


its not SF and Santa Clara only.. but rather all 9 counties had similar RE pricing for a long long time.


my precious chart ...


That's correct. So again, if (per your prior contention) one of these 9 areas (SF) has been in a 50 year period of decline - and another of those areas (SJ/Santa Clara) has not, why have home prices in both moved in lockstep for the past 38 years? How can this be?

Again, thusfar, I appreciate what has been honest and straightforward answers.

171   Entitlemented   2013 Oct 15, 9:36am  

Observation: The integral of the area under the curve above x 33 Million homes is about $5T dollars. $5T ~ the malinvestment of subprime, and other "Innovative" and No Down loans.

Take the rest of the day off Thomas.....

172   CDon   2013 Oct 15, 9:57am  

Thomas - if you do take the rest of the day off, lets recap where we are in this discussion.

1. Your original contention:

thomaswong.1986 says

In the SFBA ... look at SF and Oakland.. huge cities with skilled people
large population been around for 100s of years.. what have they done over the
past 50 years but decline economically.


on the other hand, drive 40-50 miles south to Santa Clara.. the opposite is
true.. Economic boom from 1960s to 2000...

My response (referencing your 9 area FHFA chart):

CDon says

if (per your prior contention) SF has been in a 50 year
period of decline - and SJ/Santa Clara has experienced a 50 year boom, why does the chart
show home prices in both areas moved in lockstep for the past (at least) 38 years? How can this
be?

I (and certainly many others who appreciate honest straightforward answers) look forward to hearing from you in the morning.

173   freak80   2013 Oct 15, 10:29am  

I don't think facts matter to Tom Wong.

174   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 1:11pm  

CDon says

That's correct. So again, if (per your prior contention) one of these 9 areas (SF) has been in a 50 year period of decline - and another of those areas (SJ/Santa Clara) has not, why have home prices in both moved in lockstep for the past 38 years? How can this be?

prices were not widely dissimilar in the bay area in the past.. prior to the huge run up in late 90s.

here is an article from prime SF when homes were around 150-200K

http://www.nytimes.com/1997/04/27/realestate/live-work-law-for-artists-roils-san-franciscans.html

A report released this month by the National Association of Home Builders put San Francisco's median residential price for 1996 at $285,000. With prices beginning at $175,000 to $200,000, lofts are the cheapest nonsubsidized units on the market, according to David Becker, a broker with Ritchie Commercial Real Estate. They are, nonetheless, still too expensive for the artists for whom they were intended, Ms. Hestor said.

.
.
.
And the real question is Where were people like you back in the 90s ... dont you remember any of this.. or were you somewhere else... Laughable..

175   thomaswong.1986   2013 Oct 15, 1:22pm  

CDon says

CDon says

if (per your prior contention) SF has been in a 50 year

period of decline - and SJ/Santa Clara has experienced a 50 year boom, why does the chart

show home prices in both areas moved in lockstep for the past (at least) 38 years? How can this

be?

I (and certainly many others who appreciate honest straightforward answers) look forward to hearing from you in the morning.

and I will answer you again.. we did not have miss-pricing of stock or homes as irrationally as we saw post late 90s bubbles.

had you over paid for Cisco stock in early 90s when it went public.. many would have laughed at you and called you a fool.

had you over paid for a home in the early 90s given the correction we saw across california.. many would have laughed at you and called you a fool.

And today we have new batch of fools who rather over pay for so called tech stocks and houses.

And how long have you been in the Bay Area ? How long before you learn the reality of prices ?

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