patrick.net

Meccos says

so buy now or get priced out forever? I cant tell you whether its time to buy or not right now, however buying anything under pressure is never a good idea imo.

In 2006 things were much simpler; I could have told you with 100% certainly not to buy, but today it's a bit more complicated.

Positives for real estate in bay area:
- Fed is printing a lot of money and it made nasdaq go up 37% in the last year. Many people are cashing out options and transferring money into real estate.
- Chinese are taking money out of china and parking it here because China could have a serious economic adjustment soon.
- Prop 13 limits supply
- people that got their mortgages during super low rates are less likely to add to inventory
- union jobs (firefighters, cops, BART) are still making great money and did not really have to take a pay cut.

Negatives or risks:
- higher interest rates
- nasdaq might have a significant correction once QE is over or for some other unpredictable reason.
- companies like Cisco may have to do large layoffs as their revenues keep being eaten away by the cloud.

..SSSSHHHHHH!!!!! sh... sh... sh...
Quiet you guys, it's almost midnight, let's see if we hear any miracle dings in the kitty, for Ole' Gipper's sake. (soft Violins start playing)
You know ever since Obama was just a little bra in Kenya dreaming of the days he would be hitting those radical waves in Hiawatha. He always dreamed that he would one day create an Insurance racket so convoluted in greed, fraud, lies and deceit it would almost seem too good to be true.
Even way back then he knew it would need the young and invincible, the rich and the venerable, and the dumb and available to pull it off.
Those meanies want to destroy his dreams people, if their is a Santa in Heaven and Jesus loves MOST of the children, then please grant this be Christmas Miracle for Obama on this so holy oh the most holiest of all nights, just a few more hundred thousand before midnight. That's all he ever wanted, even back when he was a community organizer who Organized that thing for what's his face. This is all he ever wanted.
On Christmas day, that is all he wanted.

(falls to the ground and starts sobbing)
[the ground starts shaking and rumbling]

...wait a minute, what's that?
What's this?

It's the Diabetic, the Dismembered... Oh the Maimed, ah I can't look is that guy roasted? Ah The humanity!!!!

looking back @nw888 comments, it appears that his wife is a physician. Not sure what nw888 does, but I find it oddly hilarious that in S. cali (N cali as well) it is difficult to buy a nice home on a physician salary...

Marry xmass everybody!!! May your houses go up 30% if you are a home owner, may you get a housing crash if you are on the sidelines, may your rent decrease 50% if you are a renter, may rents increase by 50% if you are landlord.

May your dreams come true!!!

rooemoore says

The problem isn't home prices are too high, it's that wages are too low.

No, home prices are too high. Increasing wages doesn't increase my lifelong savings.

Vicente says

Mr. & Mrs. HowMuchaMonth don't care about your stupid ratios, only that they are "wasting money on rent" and were offered a loan that they can keep up payments on if they go on a Ramen diet.

You forgot to mention if they can also get that HELOC to fund their Hawaiian vacation that would work great as well.

Meccos says

so buy now or get priced out forever? I cant tell you whether its time to buy or not right now, however buying anything under pressure is never a good idea imo.

This is just my opinion but, if we knew there was a huge bubble in 2006 and prices are now higher than that...buying now sounds like a bad idea. Take my opinion with a grain of salt...

I agree, and I'm always concerned about this. I just don't see what catalyst is going to make a major change in this market. Plus, I'm tired of waiting on the sidelines, and don't want to wait 5 more years for a crash that brings prices to where they are today.

I may be wrong, but we're not trying to get rich off of our home. We want to remodel it to our liking and enjoy the memories with our kids. Sappy to some, but it's worth more than money now.

Meccos says

Looking back @nw888 comments, it appears that his wife is a physician. Not sure what nw888 does, but I find it oddly hilarious that in S. cali (N cali as well) it is difficult to buy a nice home on a physician salary...

Yes she is a physician, and I work in themed entertainment and film. We can't believe how expensive housing is now. Although we do better than most (I presume), housing makes us feel like we're barely scraping by. Weird, I know.

This is the time of year in which we pause and quietly reflect on the values which Jesus stood for: free markets, the acquisition of material wealth through worldly success, and hatred of taxation and the poor.

God sent his only son to show us the virtues of capitalism and respect for money lenders and the wealthy.

I will see you all in the church parking lot tomorrow morning, stepping out of your brand new SUVs!

Mark D says

people still post zerohedge articles? LOL

You still post NAR affordability index?

Mark D says

affordability is all about monthly payment

That's...pretty facile. And I'm being kind because it's crissmuss.

There is the small world in which the market is evolving: rich people, low inventory, high rents, investors, cash, gov subsidies, maybe restrictions on supply.

And then there is the wider world looking from the outside: millennials living in their parents's basement, low mortgage applications, few new constructions, etc...

PVT Pyle would have made a great Realtor.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/8WmaAl6hPzw

Debt crisis began because interest rate has been set too low, which started by Greenspan. With cheap borrowing, every asset will be bid higher in price, and everyone becomes speculator. These high price are not "fundamental", they are "speculative".

The current low wages keep consumer prices low. Imagine when wages are increased, all prices will be skyrocket, all hell will break loose, I will be very worry. So it is better to keep wage low, to constraint peon's spending.

Call it Crazy says

Mark D says

people still post zerohedge articles? LOL

affordability is all about monthly payment which is still very low compared to the last few decades due to STILL-VERY-LOW interest rates. how about a real chart?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/COMPHAI

Hmmm...The OP was about NEW houses, not overall affordability in the US.... A bit of a difference....

Try this chart from the link in the OP:

*

Still a bargain. I'll take two.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Jesus Christmas message is simple: Skull Fuck all REALTORS in My name or be cast into Hell with them!

Why do I get the feeling you don't like realtors.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Still a bargain. I'll take two.

Nice... You'll finally move out of mom's basement!!

Even basements are shooting up in price. Get yours before they are all gone.

I bet this guy wouldn't want to go head to head in a "say some religious Pious Shit" contest.

All Jessie knows how to do is rattle his Race bait can, and spout off his fabricated injustices with newly invented words for the occasion while wearing a Purple suit, not much different than the Purple suit he wore the last time, he squeezed blood from a sermon.

Phil preaches the Gospel, that's a foreign concept to Jessie "Quick, somebody Gimmie a Fucking crisis" Jackson. All he likes to do is, moan about the plight of the colored folk, until some company pays him to shut up again.

I had a pet Realtor once. Would only eat red meat and small children.

It gnawed through it's chain and barred compound laced with garlic and started a firm locally, successfully embezzling and laundering millions. I am so proud of it.

Why do you hate ambition?

Realtors make the best kleptomaniacs.

Cover your goods in itching powder, invite some Realtors, and enjoy the show.

Pretty soon the Liberals are going to have to come to terms, our economy is a Bust.

For the American consumer.

Sure every American in the United States would love nothing more than to shell out $2000 a month for an insurance that either may or may not cover them when they need it. Because If I learned any thing in my 46 years living as an American. We will pay for some useless do nothing shit, given the popularity is enough for that useless shit. And provided the economy is as strong as our wants.

The popularity for Obamacare has been so great it got him elected twice. But thanks to Numbnutz lack of central critical thinking and creating policy that would create a strong work economy, people can't afford to play along with the good ole' American...

"Look what I got!" Game.

Or people would be wearing their Insurance policies with the price tags still on them. Buying them in bulk and eBaying them when there's a shortage.

Aren't you supposed to be in church this morning?

Or is spending all Christmas morning fixating on your hatreds a sacrament?

Well maybe they will turn into all-crash homes soon

If all cash sales are a bad sign for housing, then 100% loans must be good for housing. Wasn't it the 100% loans that caused the crash in the first place?
I love articles on housing written by comedians.

Tim Aurora says

The problem is that everybody wants at least a 3 bedroom house in the expensive part of the city. Move to Atlanta or Dallas, and the median prices are more like 2.5 times the median salary for a 4 bedroom house. Look at the home affordability in different cities

http://www.interest.com/mortgage/home-affordability-grade-paycheck-rating/

Wow!!!. San Francisco is the worst!!! Do you guys think this trend is sustainable in SF? or do you guys expect a correction?

All cash purchases don't necessarily mean "bad." for every buyer in 2006 there was a seller who would have enough to pay all cash today if they were smart and rented. there couldn't have been all buyers. most banks lost money in 2006 so where did the money go? the people who sold.

institutional investment is 14% of the purchases, foreign investment is 5%. the rest is from ordinary people like "fedwatcher."

Call it Crazy says

The OP was about NEW houses, not overall affordability

which is why it is misleading and everyone should look at the overall picture (my chart). new constructions are a tiny part of the housing market.

FunnyBayAreaBuyer says

or do you guys expect a correction?

real estate prices in NYC never "corrected."

interest are going to go up from here. historically speaking, 4.5% is very low.

the rise in interest didn't cause prices to drop so why wait?

i personally think prices go won't go up much next year if any. but they sure as hell won't go down with this level of low inventory.

Call it Crazy says

Why leave the cash for the kids, just spend their inheritance now

true - all these kids now that inherit houses that are free and clear are really suffering!!

Mark D says

the rise in interest didn't cause prices to drop so why wait?

It takes six months for interest rate rise to work through economy. The first 100 basis points on 10 year happened in June. Then after another quick 50 basis point rise, 10 year fell back to 2.5 and only now came back to 3.00. If 10 year stays at 3.00 we will only see the effects of that in the spring.

Strategist says

Wasn't it the 100% loans that caused the crash in the first place?

No. Securitization, i.e. Wall Street caused the crash. 100% loans had been around for a long time prior.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Strategist says

Why do I get the feeling you don't like realtors.

It's not me. It's Jesus that is righteously condemning of REALTOR scum.

I thought Jesus sold real estate. If you can sell bullshit you can sell real estate.

Ceffer says

I had a pet Realtor once. Would only eat red meat and small children.

It gnawed through it's chain and barred compound laced with garlic and started a firm locally, successfully embezzling and laundering millions. I am so proud of it.

Why do you hate ambition?

My next realtor is gonna be a vegan.

ELC says

Strategist says

Wasn't it the 100% loans that caused the crash in the first place?

No. Securitization, i.e. Wall Street caused the crash. 100% loans had been around for a long time prior.

Hmmmm. Makes sense. Same would go for sub prime and negative amortization loans. They got carried away because of securitization.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

If all cash sales are a bad sign for housing, then 100% loans must be good for housing. Wasn't it the 100% loans that caused the crash in the first place?

I love articles on housing written by comedians.

100% cash sales by investors is a wonderful thing. In fact, I hope every house on your block gets sold to an investor who pays 100% cash.

I think you'll really enjoy living together with all those renters, and I'm sure the value of houses on the block will skyrocket!!!

Given a choice, I would prefer investors buy up every home on the block and rent it to high end tenants, rather than unqualified owners with no down payments buy them up and end up defaulting.
Wouldn't you?

The bankers already control all the national currencies.

How could Bitcoin possibly give them a tighter grip?

And if Bitcoin is fiat, then so is gold: The sole differences between the two are that gold is physical, and that Bitcoin transactions change the state of the Bitcoin.

Bitcoin should probably be gotten rid of - the ownership trail leaves it open to NSA snooping, and it wasn't designed to be more than an experiment - but an open-source currency is among the best friends anti-centralization supporters have ever had.

You just don't get it.
All cash sales is not the problem. Tight underwriting standards that deny loans to those who can pay is the problem. Once they ease off on their strict guidelines, more people will qualify for loans and the ration of cash buyers will fall with it.
Of course, you will find something else to whine about.

Analyzer says

Vicente says

Mr. & Mrs. HowMuchaMonth don't care about your stupid ratios, only that they are "wasting money on rent" and were offered a loan that they can keep up payments on if they go on a Ramen diet.

You forgot to mention if they can also get that HELOC to fund their Hawaiian vacation that would work great as well.

In order for home equity to be comparable to cash, the pad must be sold. Heloc is simply a glorified credit card although with much better interest rates and tax deductibility with the other side of the scale being that the pad is placed as collateral.

It's a scam, and it's illegal in China and many other countries. Somehow this scam is legal within US, so I'm just assuming some senators are on the take.

Call it Crazy says

Today's underwriting standards are fine... If you pay your bills and have a stable job with verifiable income, (and a down payment) you can get a mortgage....

It's the verifiable income that kills off most entrepreneurs as well as buyers with parents who are willing to help them out (rather than have them living at home). That leaves you with working stiffs. Working stiffs with good credit and a hefty down payment in this economy aren't going to sustain the market.

Stated income, no down payment, interest only loans, etc. performed fine for decades. Things will work fine as long as you don't let them get away with bundling a bunch of high risk loans with a few good loans and fraudulently rate it A+. Of course that's going to make everybody way too cocky.