patrick.net

indigenous says

The bottom line is that Yellin has to keep the interest rate low in order to keep the debt service low.

A well known predictor of the economy is the interest rate on bonds in other words the higher the interest rates corporations have to pay the slower the economy.

I agree as long as the US Treasury 10 year note stays below 3% that the Federal governments interest payments will be less than 10% of the federal budget.

Also the lower rates means more earnings for the corporations since they pay less interest on their debt.

Lower rates force retirees to invest in stocks in order to avoid earning a paltry 1 to 2% on I series savings bonds and Certificate of Deposits (CDs).

Kerry voted "YES" on the resolution to authorize the war in Iraq, a war based upon trumped up charges.

zzyzzx says

Blurtman says

Has Russia killed 100,000 women and children in the invasion of Crimea? No.

They have killed way more in previous invasions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_crimes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_war_crimes#Soviet_Union_perpetrated_crimes

Did Russia engage in the genocide of an indigenous people? We are talking about the current action in Ukraine, and the hypocrisy of a country that has committed war crimes quite recently.

"annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy, prices are too high
annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline
annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy, prices are reasonable"

It's a long winded way of saying buy in the Ghetto and not prime. Which is absolutely a mistake.

Based on that theory, someone like Patrick would buy in places like Vallejo 10-20 years ago and not buy in Menlo Park, which turned out to be a millior dollar mistake. If the rules doesn't work, it makes no sense to worship it.

corntrollio says

Read S-1s and other SEC filings and also read articles on this. You can see
how tightly concentrated share ownership is in a select few. The difference
between the shitty businesses that had IPOs in the 1999-2000 range is that the
businesses were shitty, had no revenue/profit, and the founders gave up a lot
more of their stock. Working for these shit businesses was way more risky than
working for, say, Facebook in 2010.

The companies that have been IPOing lately have had a more identifiable
revenue model, and the founders and key employees haven't had to give up nearly
as much stock.

More important is the companies that haven't been undergoing IPOs because
they sold privately. In those cases, the founders and key employees retain an
even bigger share of the pot and the VCs retain most of the remainder. Rank and
file get enough to get them not to leave their job, but it's not a whole lot
unless you were really early.

The stock compensation section of the 10-K under notes to consolidated financial statement details the options outstanding.

The biggest change in stock compensation over the decade is the popularity of RSU's, PSU's in lieu of options, especially if you are not the first several hundred seed employees. stock units guarantees a payday (if liquidity hurdle is cleared) albeit you lose the upside of sheer options where the price explodes and you hold say 30K options and benefit on the increment than say 10K units where you benefit from the entire price.

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know. You didn't buy one house in Cupertino, you just bought four houses, one for each of his four kids, aged 10-18. Wealth drives future demands. People who made their wealth in the dotcom eras are the buyers the last 10 years in the valley. People who makes their wealth now, will drive demand for their next generation.

bgamall4 says

Blurtman says

Kerry voted "YES" on the resolution to authorize the war in Iraq, a war based upon trumped up charges.

And that knowing that WTC7 was demolished. It is on video where he admits to the demolition. So he knew the Zionist plot to make the US invade the Middle East on behalf of Israel and he still voted for war. What a conflicted piece of crap.

We even have the president of Israel visiting, he is still out here talking to politicians. Probably up to something as usual.

The Ukrainians should just sell Crimea to Russia, and use the money to pay off their debts and move some Ukrainians from all over Russia back to Ukraine while expelling some of the remaining Russians.

Last night on PBS, Henry Kissinger was interviewed by Charlie Rose. I'm not a big fan of Kissinger in general, but what he said about Ukraine made a lof of sense. There is no video available yet. Tere might be vdeo later.

Kissinger said Ukraine should be democratic and independent, that the 2014 revolution has NOT been democratic, that Ukraine should not be part of NATO, that Crimea should be autonomous (as it has been), and that the Russians should get an indefinite lease on their Navy base in Crimea.

He used the expression "the Finnish model", which means that Ukraine should emulate post-WW2 Finland, which oriented towards the west but adopted a non-confrontational non-NATO military stance toward Russia.

Except for the added insight and subtlety of using the Finnish model, these are exactly my thoughts on Ukraine.

Now we have both Henry Kissinger and Stephen Cohen being voices of reason. I hope Kerry and Obama are listening carefully.

This plot surely gets thicker and thicker every day. It sure is bad to be in a little country stuck in a tug of war between 2 super powers.

zzyzzx says

The Ukrainians should just sell Crimea to Russia, and use the money to pay off their debts and move some Ukrainians from all over Russia back to Ukraine while expelling some of the remaining Russians.

I think the price at this point is buy 0 and get 1 free.

dodgerfanjohn says

corntrollio says

dodgerfanjohn says

Lol@ "I posted more words than you and I said so" as an argument

LOL @ "I can't think critically and therefore ignore data and analysis" as an argument.

Point me to the data and analysis in this thread.

http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/climate-change-evidence-causes.pdf

This report from the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences came out last week.

Here is the table of contents to whet your whistle:

Correction: Estoniation FM (Foreign Minister), not PM, made the statements.

Now, the fact that police and demonstrators were shot at with the same type ammunition proves exactly NOTHING. Do I really need to spell this out? There are many common types of ammunition, and no reason to believe that only certain groups of people have access to certain rifles and ammunition.

Type of ammunition neither supprts not detracts from any particular theory at this point.

New Renter says

Assuming by that time the prices of Chilean beach homes don't make a corner Manhattan apartment with a park view look cheap.

Fortunately that won't happen because of Pinochet's legacy, although a Monetarist at least they do not suffer from Keynesian propaganda

bgamall4 says

bob2356 says

So give me a link. I'll be waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting.

Find it yourself you lazy ass. Ok here it is because you are a pig and can't find it:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/features/.premium-1.533382

Now that you know it is true, perhaps you will give Putin a little more respect and our leaders no respect for selling out to the Zionists.

Your link is subscription only. I'd rather have a 32 root canals without novacane than subscribe to anything you read. So where are the dual citizens? Got names? Still waiting and waiting and waiting. What happened to your girlfriend facebooksux? She didn't come up with anything either. Which one of you is dumb and which one is dumber?

SFace says

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know. You didn't buy one house in Cupertino, you just bought four houses, one for each of his four kids, aged 10-18.

This fact dispels the theory that the RE rally is unstable because houses are bought by investors and not first-time buyers. The truth is, look like investment properties, actually have been bought by four first-time buyers!

hanera says

SFace says

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know. You didn't buy one house in Cupertino, you just bought four houses, one for each of his four kids, aged 10-18.

This fact dispels the theory that the RE rally is unstable because houses are bought by investors and not first-time buyers. The truth is, look like investment properties, actually have been bought by four first-time buyers!

I think what I am trying to say is wealth more so than income drives price. Income is a small component of wealth which are accumulated , transferred won/last in many ways.

While many people don't see future demand (For example, what will happen when no one buys the boomers homes thread as an example). It's ridicolous, with the sheer amount of growing wealth, it will be more competitive than ever.

hanera says

The truth is, look like investment properties, actually have been bought by four first-time buyers!

Not when you see the homes in question:

But of course the value is all in the land.

hrhjuliet says

She says it's the weather keeping everyone from buying....in So Cal.

Hahaha. A couple of them told me they will look for the house for me using door to door campaigning.

SFace says

While many people don't see future demand (For example, what will happen when no one buys the boomers homes thread as an example). It's ridicolous, with the sheer amount of growing wealth, it will be more competitive than ever.

I agree with you. The QE gift from the Fed inflated bay area company values way beyond any fundamentals. People here are not stupid, they've seen this movie before. They cash out their equity positions and diversify in real estate. Even if their company values deflate, they usually don't sell their real estate holdings since they are here waiting for the next cycle.

tr6 says

They cash out their equity positions and diversify in real estate.

Another good point, supporting my suspicion that the current RE rally in SFBA is mainly driven by tech folks and not foreigners.

hanera says

Another good point, supporting my suspicion that the current RE rally in SFBA is mainly driven by tech folks and not foreigners.

I think it's a bit of both. A house for sale on my street in Mountain View had a full sized bus of asian investors pull up on a real estate investment tour. When I was bidding on houses, several houses that I bid on were picked up by all-cash absentee buyers (aka, investors). When housing is in such short supply, any demand drives up the prices.

I'm one of these people who's been working in tech here for almost 20 years, and after this long, I could barely afford a starter home here. Granted, I never won the startup or stock option lottery, so I had to do this on savings and paycheck income. I think I'm more typical than the guys hitting the huge fortunes at Google, Apple and Facebook, and I can hardly afford to live here anymore.

tr6 says

about the size of the Fed balance sheet

which is immaterial unless and until actual wage inflation comes.

full employment 1990s-style is still 12 million jobs away.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sMf

or 2018 if we gain 250,000/mo

though I do suppose Fed balance sheet -> weaker dollar -> higher Brent -> higher gold

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sMh

Inflation (wage or otherwise) can happen irrespective of employment rates. Unemployment is caused by lots of things - regulation, recession, health care costs, etc. You can have rising wages and rising unemployment in a zombie economy like ours.

The Fed's balance sheet matters because it's related to bidding up prices of assets, namely, real estate and equities, which are the only things that can soak up trillions of dollars. Equities/real estate are very coupled to each other and to fed policy.

myob says

I think I'm more typical than the guys hitting the huge fortunes at Google, Apple and Facebook, and I can hardly afford to live here anymore.

I had a friend who *did* win the AAPL lottery who couldn't afford to live there an more.

Well, after he finally quit after 20+ years and didn't need to live so close to Cupertino he found $1M+ could buy 2 very nice acres above Santa Cruz vs. some shitbox in noise range of the 85.

Bellingham Bill says

which is immaterial unless and until actual wage inflation comes.

4.5 Trillion is about 2/3 of the total value of gold in existence. To me it's a relative value thing. If the Fed balance sheet gets to 5T and gold to $1000 which would put its total value somewhere in 5-6T range, which one would you buy?

5T is a lot of money that most people don't comprehend yet. There is no way to unwind it except to hold it to maturity.

hanera says

Are you implying that interest rate would stay low for a long time? Any increase would spur Fed to sell into it, hence keep it low.

I am implying that selling off bonds on the Fed balance sheet is not an option, because even small taper caused havoc in emerging markets. The Fed will hold the bond to maturity even if interest rates rise. They don't have to recognize the loss on the bond.

Yeah, but at least the boomers are whining all the way to the bank.

indigenous says

New Renter says

Assuming by that time the prices of Chilean beach homes don't make a corner Manhattan apartment with a park view look cheap.

Fortunately that won't happen because of Pinochet's legacy, although a Monetarist at least they do not suffer from Keynesian propaganda

???

Because Pinochet did not subscribe to the idea of fixing the economy by printing money. He decided to get advise from Milton Friedman so he did not suffer from as many western fallacies.

I'll have to watch this, bookmarking.

Mox News? In other words, some bloke posting up Youtube videos of someone talking to conspiracists. "Jon made a mockery of mainstream science." Dear me. That's your 'proof'? It was a laughable bit of one-sided conspiracy guff. An absolute embarrassment.

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Thursday, March 6, 2014 __ Level is 104.8

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

bgamall4 says

Bigsby says

some bloke

Shame on you. The guy lost a child at 9/11. Have you no shame Bigsby?

Who? And what has that got to do with anything? Lots of people lost relatives on 9/11. Does that suddenly make all of them experts?

Is jojo an old codger & the first BB to go on SS & medicare & just needs something to fill his empty hours?

The average annual return of the S&P 500 from January 1, 2000 to present day is 3.30%. The last 13 years for index investing has been lost essentially.

I've totally flipped on my pessimism btw. I don't think the Yellen Fed is going to taper until we hit the full-employment condition of the 1990s.

It was this graph that enlightened me:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sO8

showing we're still 10M jobs away from full employment. If the Fed stops before that, they will be economic terrorists given how dysfunctional Congress is.

also it's the debt-to-GDP thing that makes me think Fed intervention is a bigger game-changer.

actual deficit (not counting Fed purchases, which we shouldn't:)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sNm

debt to GDP, ex-Fed:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sNo

This indicates Congress will have leeway to boost spending again in 2017. I don't expect the GOP to get with the program before then, but I do expect the program to include tax cuts for everyone later this decade.

I agree that prices in CA are going to continue to climb. I've been to several open houses in the BA recently, and it is just amazing how many people swarm to $1.3M+ houses. One place I went to must have had over 100 people/families visit.

Although I think prices will climb, I'm concerned we're still somewhat close to a peak. Plus, the price to rent ratio isn't very good where I've been looking. So, I've been looking at non-BA real estate.

Any thoughts on where to invest - either other parts of CA or other states?

I'd not invest in real estate right now in the US. If you need a place to live, great, buy a place for that, but not as an investment. There are other assets that shield you from inflation, like commodities or even the stock market.

myob says

I'd not invest in real estate right now in the US. If you need a place to live, great, buy a place for that, but not as an investment. There are other assets that shield you from inflation, like commodities or even the stock market.

I've got a good amount in the stock market already. With the way it is so manipulated too, I'm not that comfortable putting too much more in. I've got a little in commodities, but they fluctuate so much, and as pretty as gold is, I can't do much with it. I can't imagine real estate in all of the US or elsewhere is overpriced.