patrick.net

Quigley says

I've suspected that Bigsby is a paid plant on this and other forums. He (always) takes the administration/government/establishment side of any issue and argues using scorn and trying to discredit rather than disprove. You can't convert someone who's being paid to cast doubt on everything.

As Gary deleted my previous response, please post up the other sites that you believe I post on. And no, I don't take the administration/government/establishment side of things on here unless you think that is the same as disagreeing with Gary's nonsense. I'm not American, I don't live permanently in America, and judging by the posts I read on here, I'm probably one of the most left-wing members of this forum. And yes, I'm scornful of Gary's views. I take it you share his views on Sandy Hook and his twin smoking guns of bottled water and porta potties. And I and others have produced plenty of evidence to counter the ridiculous nonsense Gary posts. More to the point, a great deal of what Gary posts can't be refuted in the normal manner because it's evidence free nonsense in the first place. How do you refute someone claiming fairies live at the bottom of the garden? All he does is ignore the glaring problems with his arguments, moves on to another point, and then recycles the same point later on in a different thread.

bob2356 says

Bigsby says

2000 ebooks? I can tell from all the comments on Amazon.

You went looking for his ebooks and comments on them? You need some more exciting hobbies in your life, like watching paint dry or grass grow.

If you click on the link to his 'website,' it takes you to Amazon.

bob2356 says

Bigsby says

If you click on the link to his 'website,' it takes you to Amazon

Why in the world would I want to go to paranoidschizophrenic.com in the first place and why in the world were you there? Ok maybe watching paint drying is too much of an extreme sport for you after all.

Have you never wondered what he was doing on his blog given his posts here? Turns out he was just recycling exactly the same posts.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

The in-between is called: The Road to Serfdom. Read it up.

If 1945 to 1980 in the US was the road to Serfdom--sign me up. I'll gladly travel that road.

Beware what you wish for. We are living through a period similar to the 1970's stagflation. Deregulation was well underway during Jimmy Carter's administration for a good reason: the economy was was in bad shape after LBJ's double wars and Nixon's observation that "We are all Keynesians now."

Reality says

Beware what you wish for. We are living through a period similar to the
1970's stagflation. Deregulation was well underway during Jimmy Carter's
administration for a good reason: the economy was was in bad shape after LBJ's
double wars and Nixon's observation that "We are all Keynesians now."

Except for the high inflation, high interest rates, and wage inflation.. Wait a second, it's pretty much not like the 1970s stagflation at all, is it?

bob2356 says

So which government standard mandated cars having to last more than 100k miles?

You really are deeply in the dark aren't you? The EPA mandated that emissions must be maintainence free for 50k miles starting in 1973. That lead to many improvements in engineering to meet the standard. The switch to sefi, the best thing to ever happen to cars, was driven by the need to meet tightening emissions standards.

I will ask you the same question again: which government standard mandated cars having to last more than 100k miles? There was none. The mandate was for 50k miles. So why did carmakers make cars that last longer than 50k miles? Because it was cost-effective to do so! A car that lasted 100k+ miles would have much higher resale value than cars that fell apart immediately after the government's 50k miles mandate.

bob2356 says

Lead was phased out of gasoline so catalytic converters could be used to control emissions. Because lead was phased out cars now regularly go 300k. Using leaded gas 100k was the norm. Don't tell me this isn't true, I changed enough rings and bearings at 100k in the days of leaded gas. The effect of the ban on leaded gas was that cars easily last 300k miles now. Plus the lead in the air has dropped to almost nothing. A very good mandate overall.

The switch-over to unleaded gasoline reduced/removed airborne lead particles from the air; that's a very good thing from public health perspective. However, engine longevity has little to do with the leaded or unleaded fuel. Engine making became much more precise during the 70's and 80's due to competition from imports. That's the real reason for improving longevity of cars: market competition. When the big-3 domestic carmakers kept making cars that fell apart between 60k-80k miles, they drastically lost market share to imports that could last more than 100k miles.

bob2356 says

Refrigerants were changed because of banning of R12 through the 1987 international treaty known as the montreal protocol which has had 7 revisions some of which have caused ongoing changes in refrigerants.

It just so happens that patent expirations coincide with government mandated changes. Wink, wink.

bob2356 says

Mercedes was late to the party. Ford and GM both offered air bags as an option in the early 70's, Mercedes wasn't till 1981. No one bought them, like no one bought seats belts when Ford offered them in 55 and 56. So no one had a crystal ball because no one needed one.

No one except for the government bureaucrats, that's what you are claiming. It doesn't matter to my point which particular private sector player invented the different devices so long as the devices were invented by the private sector.

BTW, the particular government mandate did not even specify airbags per se, but airbags or automated seat belts. The carmakers worked out the details which solution cost less and was more appealing to consumers.

The problems and solutions were well known for years before they were mandated. The first patent for seat belts was 1885. Car makers didn't install safety features as standard equipment because the extra cost would have put them at a sales disadvantage with other car makers that didn't. Mandates make it a level playing field.

LOL. How many Yugo's meeting minimum government standards do you see running around in your neighborhood? Are you saying cars with more than two airbags do not exist? As even today only two bags are mandated by law. In reality, the vast majority of new cars sold today have more than two airbags. Insurance Institute of Highway Safety is not a government institution, and carmakers care very much about testing results from IIHS.org . . . because, surprisingly to you, consumers do care about safety.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

Beware what you wish for. We are living through a period similar to the

1970's stagflation. Deregulation was well underway during Jimmy Carter's

administration for a good reason: the economy was was in bad shape after LBJ's

double wars and Nixon's observation that "We are all Keynesians now."

Except for the high inflation, high interest rates, and wage inflation.. Wait a second, it's pretty much not like the 1970s stagflation at all, is it?

What was considered "high inflation" leading to Nixon's price control was a 4% inflation rate. The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use the same methodology as the 1970's. High interest rates did not come until the end of the 1970's. Wage inflation is not taking place in the US yet (but has been rapidly overseas where their currencies were pegged or soft-pegged to the dollar, which is now running a global economy not just US economy) but high unemployment rate is already here.

Reality says

Wage inflation is not taking place in the US yet (but has been rapidly overseas
where their currencies were pegged or soft-pegged to the dollar, which is now
running a global economy not just US economy) but high unemployment rate is
already here.

So, any period of high unemployment is stagflation in your mind?

tatupu70 says

So, any period of high unemployment is stagflation in your mind?

High period of unemployment is obviously depression (i.e. the normal division of labor in an economy being thwarted in some way; aka, the labor market is not clearing). "Stagflation" is just monetary printing trying to cover up a depression.

spydah_hh says

No, I am sorry but you're a socialist

lol--economics is a binary system then? Either you're a soclialist or you're for unregulated free market?

Call it Crazy says

but a 14% increase in supply.

Just curious how do they come up with that precise number? Now they can read future sellers mind?

There is no legitimate purpose to a free game requiring access to your phone and contacts.

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use
the same methodology as the 1970's.

So you believe prices are about 68% higher across the board than 2000, compared to CPI saying they are about 39% higher? (2.5% annual inflation)

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your thesis?

I've wanted to start an App Hall of Shame thread on PatNet. A "free game requiring access to your phone and contacts" -- it gets better than that. Jeez, I had a hard time finding a weather app that didn't crawl into every nook and cranny. Accuweather want access to it all. Hat off to the WeatherChannel for being a bit more reasonable.

My apps started spying on me but got so bored they erased themselves.

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called names)

http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called
names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

Call it Crazy says

bubblesitter says

Call it Crazy says

but a 14% increase in supply.

Just curious how do they come up with that precise number? Now they can read future sellers mind?

It's JPMorgan, they make the market do what they want it to do......

Most of the time those predictions are wrong.
My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

tatupu70 says

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called

names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

It will still be low inventory, and prices will still go up.
The bears will still claim victory. Bulls will still laugh at them.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

So, how many years of inventory do you need to make you happy??

Well, 6 months is generally considered a balanced market--less than that is a sellers market, more is a buyer's market. Will 14% get us to 6 months?

Strategist says

tatupu70 says

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called

names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

It will still be low inventory, and prices will still go up.

The bears will still claim victory. Bulls will still laugh at them.

The only people I put on ignore were not people I disagreed with but those that constantly resorted to name calling when they disagreed

thunderlips11 says

The Eastern Part is the literal Homeland of Russia, where the Rus were concentrated in Konugaarde (Boatland, now called Kiev) before they were driven north into the Deep Forests by the Mongols. That Cossack region is very Orthodox and very Russian

Where do you people find junk like this? The only "very Russian" part of the Eastern Ukraine are the industrial cities where all the Russians were brought in after WW2. The countryside has always been and remains Ukrainian in terms of language, culture and self-identification. Yes, its Orthodox, but Orthodox != Russian.

thunderlips11 says

Note that nothing of the Language Bill has appeared on MSM TV that I've seen

The repeal of the Language Bill was vetoed by acting President. Besides, the Bill itself was adopted during Yanukovich reign with blatant violations of the Parliament procedure and most probably wouldn't survive challenge in Supreme Court anyway.Moreover, it does not conform to the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. It will have to be repealed and replaced, there is no other way, but for now it stands.

BTW, Russian was never banned in Ukraine before the Language Bill was adopted, so saying that repeal of the Bill "bans Russian" is pure idiocy.

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/russia-warns-ukraine-over-lawlessness-201431015401938919.html

Tru Dat

Consumer Confidence is quickly dwindling, Central Banks cooperation is quickly fading, so which one will go rouge first...hmmmm! Maybe they're all sorta going rogue at once, now that wack-o-mole economics policies have lost the rest of it's shelf life....HURRY Yellen Taper before it's to late, TAPER!

Bubbabear says

wack-o-mole economics

Good one

FortWayne says

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests

This is 100% Russian propaganda. They are trying to create pretext for further invasion, just like they did with Crimea. The so-called "unrest" in Eastern Ukraine is created by Russian nationals bused in from Russia proper through the open border to riot on the streets of Ukrainian cities. I won't even comment the stupid bullshit re Right Sector being "Nazi party which uses uses swastika signs": their sign is a variation of Ukrainian Coat of Arms (Trident) with sword in the middle.

Here's the official Coat of Arms in colors of Ukrainian flag:

Here's the sign Right Sector uses (red and black are historical colors of Ukrainian battle flag):

Swastika, my ass.

PS. I especially like " Source: Agencies" at the bottom of the page. Epic fail.

Strategist says

My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

you are joking right? haha

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use
the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

Correct. That's why government statistics should be taken with a big grain of salt. The Nixon years' 4% "high inflation" was using the methodology back then, so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same methodology.

control point says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's.

So you believe prices are about 68% higher across the board than 2000, compared to CPI saying they are about 39% higher? (2.5% annual inflation)

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

tatupu70 says

spydah_hh says

No, I am sorry but you're a socialist

lol--economics is a binary system then? Either you're a soclialist or you're for unregulated free market?

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in the future work out better market solutions. It's a moving goal post, just like whatever job we do today will be considered menial drudgery if not outright barbaric at some point in the future.

tatupu70 says

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

You have to look further than your street. Maybe around you they are all still holding their breath underwater. Or they are squatters who are living with no housing expenses, besides cleaning up their own feces from the back yard because the water was cut-off.

Reality says

so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same
methodology.

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Reality says

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for
government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in
the future work out better market solutions.

Government coercion? What the hell are you talking about?

Reality says

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per
gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

Yes, because cherry picking the one commodity that has increased the most is how one should measure inflation.

Tim Aurora says

That is a very broad definition of socialism and very narrow definition of capitalism.

It is what it is there is no grey areas when defining these two forms of governments. Socialism is just a form of government intervention (centralize market) and in most cases a redistribution of wealth. Free Markets is what it says, a free market enterprise where there is very little to no government intervention in markets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism

tatupu70 says

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Oh this guy with his love of the CPI again. You're not understanding are you? You're still not getting it are you?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_jan252008.html
http://www.silverdoctors.com/ron-paul-chained-cpi-chains-taxpayers/

The ShadowStats CPI eliminates the changes made by the US government since the early 1980s to its own CPI measure. In other words, the ShadowsStats CPI is the same one the US government used to calculate inflation while Jimmy Carter was president.

The changes made by the government to its CPI were clearly introduced to lessen reported CPI inflation. A lower inflation rate reduces the cost-of-living increases the US government makes to welfare and Social Security recipients, thereby reducing its budget deficit. Welfare and Social Security recipients suffer the consequences. Their purchasing power is reduced because the payments they receive do not keep up with the real rate of inflation.

You can also say this goes for workers wages as well.