patrick.net

Reality says

Wage inflation is not taking place in the US yet (but has been rapidly overseas
where their currencies were pegged or soft-pegged to the dollar, which is now
running a global economy not just US economy) but high unemployment rate is
already here.

So, any period of high unemployment is stagflation in your mind?

tatupu70 says

So, any period of high unemployment is stagflation in your mind?

High period of unemployment is obviously depression (i.e. the normal division of labor in an economy being thwarted in some way; aka, the labor market is not clearing). "Stagflation" is just monetary printing trying to cover up a depression.

spydah_hh says

No, I am sorry but you're a socialist

lol--economics is a binary system then? Either you're a soclialist or you're for unregulated free market?

Call it Crazy says

but a 14% increase in supply.

Just curious how do they come up with that precise number? Now they can read future sellers mind?

There is no legitimate purpose to a free game requiring access to your phone and contacts.

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use
the same methodology as the 1970's.

So you believe prices are about 68% higher across the board than 2000, compared to CPI saying they are about 39% higher? (2.5% annual inflation)

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your thesis?

I've wanted to start an App Hall of Shame thread on PatNet. A "free game requiring access to your phone and contacts" -- it gets better than that. Jeez, I had a hard time finding a weather app that didn't crawl into every nook and cranny. Accuweather want access to it all. Hat off to the WeatherChannel for being a bit more reasonable.

My apps started spying on me but got so bored they erased themselves.

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called names)

http://smaulgld.com/the-coming-supplydemand-real-estate-inventory-reversal/

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called
names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

Call it Crazy says

bubblesitter says

Call it Crazy says

but a 14% increase in supply.

Just curious how do they come up with that precise number? Now they can read future sellers mind?

It's JPMorgan, they make the market do what they want it to do......

Most of the time those predictions are wrong.
My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

tatupu70 says

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called

names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

It will still be low inventory, and prices will still go up.
The bears will still claim victory. Bulls will still laugh at them.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

So, how many years of inventory do you need to make you happy??

Well, 6 months is generally considered a balanced market--less than that is a sellers market, more is a buyer's market. Will 14% get us to 6 months?

Strategist says

tatupu70 says

smaulgld says

Sounds like what we all discussed/predicted last summer (while being called

names)

lol--so, let's get this straight. After being 100% wrong last year and putting every poster that dared to disagree with you on ignore so your threads were worthless, you are now claiming victory because an opinion article agrees wtih you?

Are you sure that 14% increase in inventory--even if it occurs--will be enough to make a difference??

It will still be low inventory, and prices will still go up.

The bears will still claim victory. Bulls will still laugh at them.

The only people I put on ignore were not people I disagreed with but those that constantly resorted to name calling when they disagreed

thunderlips11 says

The Eastern Part is the literal Homeland of Russia, where the Rus were concentrated in Konugaarde (Boatland, now called Kiev) before they were driven north into the Deep Forests by the Mongols. That Cossack region is very Orthodox and very Russian

Where do you people find junk like this? The only "very Russian" part of the Eastern Ukraine are the industrial cities where all the Russians were brought in after WW2. The countryside has always been and remains Ukrainian in terms of language, culture and self-identification. Yes, its Orthodox, but Orthodox != Russian.

thunderlips11 says

Note that nothing of the Language Bill has appeared on MSM TV that I've seen

The repeal of the Language Bill was vetoed by acting President. Besides, the Bill itself was adopted during Yanukovich reign with blatant violations of the Parliament procedure and most probably wouldn't survive challenge in Supreme Court anyway.Moreover, it does not conform to the European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages. It will have to be repealed and replaced, there is no other way, but for now it stands.

BTW, Russian was never banned in Ukraine before the Language Bill was adopted, so saying that repeal of the Bill "bans Russian" is pure idiocy.

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/russia-warns-ukraine-over-lawlessness-201431015401938919.html

Tru Dat

Consumer Confidence is quickly dwindling, Central Banks cooperation is quickly fading, so which one will go rouge first...hmmmm! Maybe they're all sorta going rogue at once, now that wack-o-mole economics policies have lost the rest of it's shelf life....HURRY Yellen Taper before it's to late, TAPER!

Bubbabear says

wack-o-mole economics

Good one

FortWayne says

Speaking of Ukraine, saw this gem today. From what I understand, Nazi party in Ukraine is trying to fight Russian army and cause other unrests

This is 100% Russian propaganda. They are trying to create pretext for further invasion, just like they did with Crimea. The so-called "unrest" in Eastern Ukraine is created by Russian nationals bused in from Russia proper through the open border to riot on the streets of Ukrainian cities. I won't even comment the stupid bullshit re Right Sector being "Nazi party which uses uses swastika signs": their sign is a variation of Ukrainian Coat of Arms (Trident) with sword in the middle.

Here's the official Coat of Arms in colors of Ukrainian flag:

Here's the sign Right Sector uses (red and black are historical colors of Ukrainian battle flag):

Swastika, my ass.

PS. I especially like " Source: Agencies" at the bottom of the page. Epic fail.

Strategist says

My prediction.....Orange County median prices will increase by 50% to $800,000 by 2017. Then they will rest for a couple of years.

you are joking right? haha

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use
the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's

Yes, if you use the wrong methodology, you can get whatever answer you'd like to get.

Correct. That's why government statistics should be taken with a big grain of salt. The Nixon years' 4% "high inflation" was using the methodology back then, so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same methodology.

control point says

Reality says

The average real inflation rate since 2000 has been running above 4% if you use

the same methodology as the 1970's.

So you believe prices are about 68% higher across the board than 2000, compared to CPI saying they are about 39% higher? (2.5% annual inflation)

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

tatupu70 says

spydah_hh says

No, I am sorry but you're a socialist

lol--economics is a binary system then? Either you're a soclialist or you're for unregulated free market?

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in the future work out better market solutions. It's a moving goal post, just like whatever job we do today will be considered menial drudgery if not outright barbaric at some point in the future.

tatupu70 says

Call it Crazy says

You're already past 6 months...

Not in my area we're not.

You have to look further than your street. Maybe around you they are all still holding their breath underwater. Or they are squatters who are living with no housing expenses, besides cleaning up their own feces from the back yard because the water was cut-off.

Reality says

so in order for numbers to comparable, one would have to use the same
methodology.

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Reality says

It gets worse than that: at some point, whatever little room each of us make for
government coercion will one day paint the person as socialist when people in
the future work out better market solutions.

Government coercion? What the hell are you talking about?

Reality says

Gasoline in 2000 was at or below $1 per gallon. Today, it is around $3.50 per
gallon. 68% increase would be understatement.

Yes, because cherry picking the one commodity that has increased the most is how one should measure inflation.

Tim Aurora says

That is a very broad definition of socialism and very narrow definition of capitalism.

It is what it is there is no grey areas when defining these two forms of governments. Socialism is just a form of government intervention (centralize market) and in most cases a redistribution of wealth. Free Markets is what it says, a free market enterprise where there is very little to no government intervention in markets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_market
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism

tatupu70 says

I see. So to compare inflation back to the 1900s, we should look at the price of horse drawn carraiges and kerosine?

Oh this guy with his love of the CPI again. You're not understanding are you? You're still not getting it are you?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_jan252008.html
http://www.silverdoctors.com/ron-paul-chained-cpi-chains-taxpayers/

The ShadowStats CPI eliminates the changes made by the US government since the early 1980s to its own CPI measure. In other words, the ShadowsStats CPI is the same one the US government used to calculate inflation while Jimmy Carter was president.

The changes made by the government to its CPI were clearly introduced to lessen reported CPI inflation. A lower inflation rate reduces the cost-of-living increases the US government makes to welfare and Social Security recipients, thereby reducing its budget deficit. Welfare and Social Security recipients suffer the consequences. Their purchasing power is reduced because the payments they receive do not keep up with the real rate of inflation.

You can also say this goes for workers wages as well.

Call it Crazy says

Well, that settles it..... There's a NATIONWIDE inventory shortage because
there is limited houses to buy on Tat's street!!!

lol--you post NJ data and now you're trying to claim nationwide? You are the poster boy for disingenuous.

Here's the actual nationwide numbers in case you wanted to be honest for once.

"Inventory rose 2.2 percent by the end of January to 1.90 million existing homes on the market. At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply, up from December's 4.6-month supply. January's inventory was also up 7.3 percent from the year before. Realtors consider the market to be balanced between supply and demand when there is a 6-month supply."

http://www.realestateabc.com/outlook.htm

He did not seem to be so inclined with Syria?

Where does Soros fit into the NWO thing?

"and, if possible, avoid future large-scale war."

It's encouraging to know that unlike the misguided dreamers of 1914-1918, there really will never be another war.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

At the current sales pace that represents a 4.9-month supply

Almost a 5 month supply.... Gee, there's NOTHING to buy since we aren't at a 6 month supply..... Really??

To be fair. You are stretching things a bit when the data calculates a 4.9 and you exaggerate that all the way to 5! That is a whole 0.1 of BS. How can anyone believe you now in the face of the fully substantiated clame from tatapupoo that his area doesn't have inventory. The deep research of going door to door and tabulating all the data is far superior than your over-exaggeration. I mean adding a 0.1 to the number just to make your case. Shame on you and a big high-five to tatupupoo for all his hard work. I just went out and bought the 4 houses that were in his neighborhood so now that really is no inventory. I guess that means the home prices are going to approach infinity. Only Bill Gates could afford to be his neighbor now. Good on Tatapupoo, bad on CIC.

Reality says

What if you are wrong, and inflation isn't 4%. Then what happens to your
thesis?

I said 4% or more. 4% was probably understatement.

That doesn't answer the question. I know you think the statement is correct - What if you are wrong, what does that do to your thesis?

bgamall4 says

Soros is NWO. Now, he thinks that the NWO could be used for good, for stopping bad loans, etc. I think he is wrong, totally wrong.

Since Soros is linked with O, wouldn't that indicate that the Dems are also NWO?

Yup Soros is a first rate sociopath. He brags about his child hood experiences with the Nazis. This fellow should be buried 100' deep, a 100' because deep down under he is good.