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We are reaching another real estate extreme.


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2014 Mar 3, 3:30pm   26,378 views  79 comments

by REpro   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

House sold in October 2013 for $755,000, now for sale for $1,520,000.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/430-N-2nd-St-95112/home/970098

#housing

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39   corntrollio   2014 Mar 7, 6:09am  

mell says

True, I don't even consider public transportation because SF is not that big, so that was for bicycle, motorbike, or cars.

Yeah, but if you don't take Muni, you have to bend over for parking too. A bike works sometimes, but gets stolen often -- I know people who've had them taken from their garage in broad daylight, and SFPD isn't too helpful about getting them back.

40   corntrollio   2014 Mar 7, 6:13am  

EBGuy says

I'll see you two LLCs and a WaMu mortgage.

Was there a mortgage filed too? I didn't even look for that. I did see the LLCs, but that could just be for development purposes -- pretty common. The only other easy explanation is if the original owner from 1995 sold it but took a mortgage back, and then it essentially got foreclosed and went back to the original owner. That seems less likely, but not impossible.

I think my suggestion is more likely.

41   corntrollio   2014 Mar 7, 6:23am  

REpro says

Here we have competition. This time more $/sqft, pure and ready for your improvements.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/402-N-3rd-St-95112/home/1084920

They've been trying to unload that albatross since 2008!

I like the recent price history:

Mar 06, 2014
Price Changed
$1,550,000

Aug 30, 2013
Price Changed
$1,650,000

Aug 27, 2013
Listed (Active)
$1,250,000

I wonder if the $1.25 million was a typo or they quickly decided to raise the price -- usually a typo gets fixed faster than 3 days, especially during the week.

That price makes no sense re: cashflow for the 5 units. They are saying $5300/mo + the owner pays a lot of the utilities. It has an interesting ownership history too, probably has a ton of deferred maintenance, and the owner has had some trouble paying the taxes on occasion. The price would only make sense if the units were in perfect condition and rented at a much higher price.

430 is suggesting cash flow twice that, plus tenants pick up more utilities.

42   hrhjuliet   2014 Mar 7, 6:50am  

bubblesitter says

REpro says

I will miss you bubblesitter.

This thing won't sell at the asking price, so I'll be still around!

It's not going for the asking price, unless a real estate agent buys it. People are getting wise. I lot more people I talk to here in the Bay Area either got out of the game or have no intention of jumping in this artificially inflated and manipulated market until they see less volatile signs. It's sad, the real estate agents keep saying these are normal prices, buy now or be priced out forever, and anything else you can imagine a used car salesman saying, yet this time the majority isn't being sucked in. Only fools hear the same lies, under the same negative conditions and believe them. Maybe the majority of people learned their lesson? These homes are not worth 1,000,000 or more. You can put whatever price you want on anything, and sometimes a fool comes along, but maybe most sellers should give up on the fool stumbling their way.

43   rufita11   2014 Mar 7, 7:06am  

My Santa Cruz agent told me I should be able to get a LOT more for my money soon. He said all the houses we looked at were priced at least 100K (or more) too high. While we were waiting in between viewings, I overheard him on the phone lamenting that he had purchased his home in 2007.

44   hrhjuliet   2014 Mar 7, 7:10am  

That's because he is part of the cult of the National Real Estate Association.

45   New Renter   2014 Mar 7, 7:13am  

rufita11 says

My Santa Cruz agent told me I should be able to get a LOT more for my money soon. He said all the houses we looked at were priced at least 100K (or more) too high. While we were waiting in between viewings, I overheard him on the phone lamenting that he had purchased his home in 2007.

And he didn't default?

46   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 7, 7:16am  

hrhjuliet says

People are getting wise.

I don't fully agree here. The inventory here is so super low that a few(top notch condition) listings have sold above asking price. The crappy one like the one listed by OP will languish on the market forever.

47   rufita11   2014 Mar 7, 7:29am  

New Renter says

And he didn't default?

Not yet. But he wasn't wearing a suit like he did the 3 previous times I met him. He also offered to buy me breakfast, but I wouldn't let him--he has young kids and a mortgage :)

48   New Renter   2014 Mar 7, 9:57am  

rufita11 says

New Renter says

And he didn't default?

Not yet. But he wasn't wearing a suit like he did the 3 previous times I met him. He also offered to buy me breakfast, but I wouldn't let him--he has young kids and a mortgage :)

Do him a favor and introduce him to the fine art of squatting.

49   mell   2014 Mar 10, 1:56am  

mell says

P.S. Long 500 sh SRS @17.76 for lack of better options, you gotta be hedged with something during such an epic melt-up ;)

Ah yes indeed it's fun time!

50   corntrollio   2014 Mar 11, 9:36am  

mell says

P.S. Long 500 sh SRS @17.76 for lack of better options

Do you understand how UltraShort funds work? Do you trade frequently?

51   Eman   2014 Mar 12, 9:26am  

bubblesitter says

If this thing sells at the asking price to the penny, I'll quit this forum. LOL.

Unfortunately, it went pending above list price. I'll miss you.

52   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 12, 3:00pm  

E-man says

Unfortunately, it went pending above list price. I'll miss you.

Nice try. Still shows active. :)

53   Eman   2014 Mar 12, 3:51pm  

bubblesitter says

Nice try. Still shows active. :)

The status will be changed in a day or two.

54   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 13, 4:13am  

E-man says

The status will be changed in a day or two.

OK. We shall see if it sells @ the asking price.

55   SFace   2014 Mar 13, 4:37am  

E-man says

bubblesitter says



Nice try. Still shows active. :)


The status will be changed in a day or two.

wow, that is incredible for a frat house near SJSU.

56   Eman   2014 Mar 13, 3:05pm  

SFace says

E-man says

bubblesitter says

Nice try. Still shows active. :)

The status will be changed in a day or two.

wow, that is incredible for a frat house near SJSU.

Not sure it would be a frat house. Too far from SJSU.

I was yanking bubblesitter's chains. I have been inside that building. The seller did a crappy job of rehabbing the building. Shoddy workmanship. Other than the travertine tile floor and some cheap stainless steel appliances, they used low grade materials almost everywhere inside the building. They did a horrific job of painting the inside as well as the outside of the building.

One unit has been vacant, and I know why. It will be a challenge renting out this unit. It appears that whoever is buying this building will have to drop another $200k to rehab this place and make it right. The foundation/basement appeared to be not seismically reinforced/upgraded. Therefore, there's a high probability that banks will not lend on this building.

With that said, they're looking for a sucker paying all cash for this building. I was sad after seeing the house. This gorgeous, 10-foot high ceiling on each floor, Victorian building was ruined by a tasteless woman flipper. Fortunately, money can fix its cosmetic, but it won't be cheap fixing it. This building will sit on the market for a while at that price.

57   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 14, 3:05am  

E-man says

This building will sit on the market for a while at that price.

I knew it. I don't have to quit this forum. :)

58   corntrollio   2014 Mar 14, 10:53am  

E-man says

The foundation/basement appeared to be not seismically reinforced/upgraded. Therefore, there's a high probability that banks will not lend on this building.

That's what I was saying -- they didn't pull the permits or spend the time or money to do this job right.

E-man says

The seller did a crappy job of rehabbing the building. Shoddy workmanship.

For what they were quoting, of course they did a crappy job.

E-man says

This gorgeous, 10-foot high ceiling on each floor, Vitorian building was ruined by a tasteless woman flipper. Fortunately, money can fix its cosmetic, but it won't be cheap fixing it.

If you look at the sales record, it looks like she has owned it since the 90s, so not sure if she's just a flipper. As EBGuy and I discussed, the sales record is odd, but it seems like she's been using LLCs and straw men to hold it for that long, hoping that it'd eventually be a good investment after buying it cheap. She appears to spend at least a good percentage of her time in another state and is above retirement age, from a quick search.

59   REpro   2014 Mar 15, 4:38am  

If seller won’t sell it this spring to some foreign investor with money to burn - be stuck with it for another 5-10 years.

60   Eman   2014 Mar 27, 2:35am  

@controllio,

You're right. Looks like the owner has owned it for quite sometimes. It appeared that there were more than one owner initially. Maybe she bought others out. Who knows. I don't have time to go through all the Grant Deed to find out what's what.

@bubblesitter, it's pending. Maybe the listing agent wasn't bluffing with me and had it sold for over list price. Will find out when it closes. I know they would have buyers at $1.3M - $1.35M. It was so unfortunate that the rehabbing work was so shoddy on such a beautiful building.

61   donjumpsuit   2014 Mar 27, 4:06am  

"The subject property has had over $200,000 in recent upgrades. The renovation includes over $25,000 in full electrical upgrades, $10,000 for brand new refrigerators, microwaves and appropriate appliances for each unit, and over $165,000 in cabinetry, travertine flooring and granite counter-tops. The pitched composition shingle roof was re-done along with new landscaping and fresh exterior paint."

Lord have mercy. I just looked at the "165k" of cabinetry, flooring and granite upgrades.

I am not a flooring expert, but the granite is the literally the cheapest selection you can buy. Also the cabinets don't really match the rest of the house, which means they were also one of the cheapest offerings.

"Travertine" is the most catchiest of catch phrases available for flooring, and is literally a pain in the ass to take care of. However, it looks like mostly the type of "Travertine" that was used in this remodel is "Mock Travertine".

So, when you look at the "165k in cabinetry, travertine flooring and granite counter-tops". What it means is the "Flipper" was paid $125k in design and consultation fees, and the ohter $35k was spend on cheap materials and mexican labor.

62   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 27, 6:21am  

E-man says

@bubblesitter, it's pending. Maybe the listing agent wasn't bluffing with me and had it sold for over list price. Will find out when it closes. I know they would have buyers at $1.3M - $1.35M. It was so unfortunate that the rehabbing work was so shoddy on such a beautiful building.

Oh great. Well, it"ll be interesting to see what it sells for. You have seen the place. Is it even worth it to get a meager cash flow?

63   REpro   2014 Mar 27, 8:23am  

This one was priced too cheap for some.
The another one (comparable) got price increased for cool $1,000,000.
Hey, Why not?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/402-N-3rd-St-95112/home/1084920

64   Eman   2014 Mar 27, 4:44pm  

bubblesitter says

Oh great. Well, it"ll be interesting to see what it sells for. You have seen the place. Is it even worth it to get a meager cash flow?

It's considered a trophy property. It's for an individual who needs a tax write-off with an appreciation/inflation hedge play more than a cashflow investment.

With money being so cheap right now, the investor can wait and have the tenants paying-off the building for him/her. If you're a high networth individual, you can borrow a 5/1 commercial loan at 2.875% interest rate right now.

65   Facebooksux   2014 Mar 28, 12:27am  

I was going to post this earlier, but I forgot.

We should all get a pool going and buy this POS. We'd all move in and film our own reality show. Bears vs bulls. It would pay itself off in about 2 months.

66   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 28, 12:45am  

REpro says

This one was priced too cheap for some.

The another one (comparable) got price increased for cool $1,000,000.

Hey, Why not?

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/402-N-3rd-St-95112/home/1084920

Why only a $1 million increase? I'd let AF chime in. :)

67   Analyzer   2014 Mar 28, 2:58am  

It's a bit unfortunate that we have to spend so much time and energy concerned with when is the right time to buy, sell, priced out for ever, generational lows, blah blah blah.........do you think this is time well spent?

68   bubblesitter   2014 Mar 28, 3:01am  

Analyzer says

do you think this is time well spent?

Well, time spent is money spent or saved, whichever way you look at it. Imagine if I wasn't spending that time here I'd have bought in 2006.

69   Analyzer   2014 Mar 28, 3:03am  

bubblesitter says

Analyzer says



do you think this is time well spent?


Well, time spent is money spent or saved, whichever way you look at it. Imagine if I wasn't spending that time here I'd have bought in 2006.

The point is we all need a place to live in and it should not be this difficult.

70   REpro   2014 Mar 28, 3:50am  

E-man says

who needs a tax write-off

How much write-off?
House is no more than $400K; rest is land value. Land does not depreciate for tax purposes.

71   Facebooksux   2014 Mar 28, 4:17am  

Call it Crazy says

Facebooksux says

I was going to post this earlier, but I forgot.

We should all get a pool going and buy this POS. We'd all move in and film our own reality show. Bears vs bulls. It would pay itself off in about 2 months.

Is there space for a wrestling ring???

Of course. As well as a yam patch out back, firearms storage lockers, generators and a sound-proof basement with individual cells for imprisoning and torturing realtors.

72   edvard2   2014 Mar 28, 4:22am  

Out of curiosity I looked around the east bay city I live in at home prices and sales. Its crazy that as of now, apartments are now in many cases going for more than what we paid for our 4 br house 2 years ago. Houses like ours are now 400k more than when we bought. Just absolutely crazy and nonsensical.

73   REpro   2014 Mar 28, 4:26am  

Facebooksux says

Call it Crazy says

Facebooksux says

I was going to post this earlier, but I forgot.

We should all get a pool going and buy this POS. We'd all move in and film our own reality show. Bears vs bulls. It would pay itself off in about 2 months.

Is there space for a wrestling ring???

Of course. As well as a yam patch out back, firearms storage lockers, generators and a sound-proof basement with individual cells for imprisoning and torturing realtors.

Not bad idea. Actually, good film producer can buy this POS and after realty show ends, can flip it over for $3M as a double historical house.

74   REpro   2014 Apr 11, 3:50pm  

House got a fresh new listing. Slightly reduced.

75   Eman   2014 Jun 14, 3:48pm  

REpro says

House got a fresh new listing. Slightly reduced.

Well, looks like they will drop it another $100k next week to $1.3M. At what price do you think this property will sell for? I have my number, but want to see some prelim number from patneters first.

76   REpro   2014 Jun 14, 5:12pm  

Well, based on lot value plus residual value plus improvement $650-$700K.
Based on gross income and expected maintenance costs $1,050K-$1,150K

77   donjumpsuit   2014 Jun 15, 1:16am  

I would still need to rip out all the cheap home depot improvements and put something nice in it's place.

78   mell   2014 Jun 15, 1:35am  

corntrollio says

mell says

P.S. Long 500 sh SRS @17.76 for lack of better options

Do you understand how UltraShort funds work? Do you trade frequently?

Not another boring lecture about the decay in the ultra shorts. They are meant to be short term trading vehicles, so just trade them frequently. Still better shorting a sector than shorting any of the "new-tech" trannies that should trade at zero but are levitated in a rotating fashion by a stampede of "hedge-fund managers" chasing that yield.

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