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Collateral Damage


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2006 Aug 23, 2:26pm   17,913 views  166 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

We've been called JBRs (jealous bitter renters). Once hurled at us by genuine real estate bulls and trolls, the term has faded as our collective perspective has gained mainstream recognition. But I see a risk. We risk being seen as cruel, ungracious winners, bad sports. Of course we will have our schadenfreude. But I ask you to reflect for just a moment about those who will become unfortunate collateral damage of the Bubble popping. The real estate boom has created many jobs. Not just for agents and mortgage brokers, but contractors, home builders, office workers, IT support techs, retail clerks, document couriers, janitors, etc. Directly and indirectly, as the residential real estate industry shrinks back to its normal size relative to the rest of the economy, many workers will likely lose their jobs. Sadly, those lowest on the totem pole will probably suffer the worst.

Many, if not most, of these people are just hard working, everyday folks who took jobs where they could find them. They didn't cause this mayhem, but they will get burned by it. As things unwind, I ask you to consider those who are the innocent casualties, while enjoying the fruits of your self discipline.

It's always better to be a gracious winner and a good sport.

--Randy H

#housing

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10   HARM   2006 Aug 23, 4:23pm  

Randy,

Maybe California, with its 30-year War on the Middle Class has distorted your perspective a little (it's certainly affected mine), but not ever U.S. working class family is quite as badly off as they are here in Boomertopia --YET. I agree that wealth disparity and class bifurcation (in favor of older generations) is accelerating just about everywhere. Even so, having an average paying job plus H.S diploma or trade school might still enable you to buy a median priced house in many other states --especially when a little fiscal discipline and deferred gratification is applied.

For those that are truly "collateral damage/innocent casualties" who did not participate in (nor benefit from) the current bubble, but may lose their jobs as a result, yes, they have my sincere sympathies. I still do not think I'm being cavalier or mypoic to suggest that soem FBs out there should have done a little more "due diligence" before taking the plunge, though. Same goes for ex-daytraders cum Realtors who are now facing unemployment.

11   Randy H   2006 Aug 23, 4:37pm  

HARM,

Roughly 1/3 of Americans rent. There are more at the lower end of the income scale who do not own than at the higher end. Education level, employability, and mean unemployment between displacement are all correlated to one's income level.

I would say that assuming these folks, of which more are renters than owners, have somehow contributed to this mess other than by trying to make a living is a bit of a stretch. As for my perspective being distorted? I remind you that renting is actually more expensive than owning in wide sections of the rust belt, yet home ownership rates there are far below the national average. Why? If I take anon's reasoning, they're ignorant and therefore only have themselves to blame.

Just for some clarity, from the BLS (2003): The 40 percent of young adult Americans who rent have an average income of $18,233. I'm sure someone can find an example of one of them who got a NAAVLP and bought a condo. But those are rare exceptions.

12   Randy H   2006 Aug 23, 4:54pm  

I have very strong feelings about the virtue of being compassionate, and empathizing with others even when they were part of that which we fought to overcome. Sure, some are deserving of their fates. Some much more than others. But many are also unaware, or only tacitly aware of the bigger picture. Perhaps they don't have the opportunity we do to fully comprehend, analyze or study the situation.

I believe that I'll be defined by how graciously I handle victories as much as I am by how I handle failures.

Anyways, I was raised in the Midwest and was taught it's just plain rude to be smug. Ever. Even when you're right. Even when they're jerks. Ever.

But I concede this thread to those who's virtue is vengeance.

13   HARM   2006 Aug 23, 4:57pm  

But I concede this thread to those who’s virtue is vengeance.

Well, now that you mention it, Wrath is my favorite sin. ;-)

14   Randy H   2006 Aug 23, 4:58pm  

As for the skilled workers offshore losses, I have complete sympathy. The programmers, scientists, manufacturing techs, these people have been royally screwed by our government/businesses.

Perhaps they should have foreseen the cyclical nature of their own economy's wage inflation? You draw the line there because...we know why you draw the line there.

Even though I've left your baiting in my thread I'll conclude by simply stating I don't like people like you. I think you're ideological and completely full of shit. You only care about yourself and cloak it in some grandiose bullshit about saving the world, while at the same time marginalizing the very people you claim to so ardently defend.

15   Randy H   2006 Aug 23, 4:59pm  

Night Harm... ;)

16   Jimbo   2006 Aug 23, 5:13pm  

Hmm, not sure if I should step into this little flame war, but for something completely off topic:

http://tinyurl.com/esgyo

California 2nd In Housing Growth. This should shut up the SMUG whiners, those who wish California would just pave over everything in site and ruin the state, so that they could afford to buy a house here.

But it won't, because most of them are opposed to good planning for ideological reasons, not for any rational reason they can explain.

17   HARM   2006 Aug 23, 5:16pm  

I believe that I’ll be defined by how graciously I handle victories as much as I am by how I handle failures.

Seriously, though, I think keeping your modesty and following the Golden Rule is a great way to approach life and treat others. And caring for the poor/less fortunate is virtuous in anyone's book.

There are times, however, when a little wrath directed towards particular individuals is completely justified --especially elites & public officials who abuse their power. And there are times when a little schadenfreude is justified as well --towards MP-style asshats who were needlessly ungracious, condescending, arrogant and rude at all times. They deserve to have that smug, condescending smile smacked right off their faces. Actually, I would like to personally volunteer for the job (if Surfer-X doesn't beat me to it). :mrgreen:

18   Peter P   2006 Aug 23, 5:20pm  

But it won’t, because most of them are opposed to good planning for ideological reasons, not for any rational reason they can explain.

Huh? I think they should sell condos in Presidio and Yosemite though.

California 2nd In Housing Growth.

California had the second-highest increase in the number of housing units of any state last year, adding 181,997 new dwellings, the Census Bureau reported.

Is this what you were trying to say?

19   Jimbo   2006 Aug 23, 5:27pm  

Many posters here are opposed to smart growth. Most of them blame Californias high home prices on a supposed inability to build houses here.

The truth is, California is building houses like mad. Too many, if you ask me.

20   Glen   2006 Aug 23, 5:31pm  

Jimbo,

They are building too many of the wrong kinds of dwellings. They are building more and more mcmansions farther and farther into the desert.

They do this because it is hard to navigate the red tape, permitting, NIMBYs, etc. to get approvals for "urban infill" projects, which is what CA really needs.

21   Glen   2006 Aug 23, 5:34pm  

anon,
give it up.

22   Jimbo   2006 Aug 23, 5:34pm  

I won't disagree with you there Glen. That is precisely what smart growth is all about: suburban and urban infill, higher density, tranit oriented growth, etc. But it has a bad reputation on this blog.

23   Glen   2006 Aug 23, 5:37pm  

Well, if "smart growth" means removing the hurdles to urban development, then I'm for it.

If it is used as an excuse for NIMBYs to block growth that they do not deem to be "smart," then I'm against it.

24   surfer-x   2006 Aug 23, 5:59pm  

"I was disappointed, it was a lot lower than I anticipated," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. "What is clear to me is sellers are more stubborn than I expected them to be. We definitely need a correction in prices in order for buyers to come back into the market."

He said he expects home prices to come down 5% nationally, more in some markets, less in others. And a few cities in Florida and California, where home prices soared to nose-bleed heights, could have "hard landings," he said.

Let me translate, SUCK IT HARD SUCK IT LONG

25   surfer-x   2006 Aug 23, 6:04pm  

oh oh oh my fucking jeebus clad clown, whoops, I meant my jeebus ... wait a minute I'm drinking and bogging.

HARM, will you and that hot young biscuit, aka Mrs. HARM be attending the "lets stop Peter P from eating all the food" party this coming labour day?

If so, let me know and I shall pencil you in for lodging at my pathetic rental.

All others, fuck off :)

Sincerely

Surfer-X

26   Peter P   2006 Aug 23, 6:07pm  

Many posters here are opposed to smart growth. Most of them blame Californias high home prices on a supposed inability to build houses here.

The truth is, California is building houses like mad. Too many, if you ask me.

We should let the free market, not residents, decide what will be built.

Robert Toll was right that California has too much regulation.

I also believe that all rent control and condo conversion regulations should be dropped.

Rent control is too good at creating bad neighborhoods.

27   surfer-x   2006 Aug 23, 6:08pm  

Oh, Randal H. Esq. and Sacramento Sassypants are welcome to stay also.

Perhaps all you JBR's could carfool on the way down. A hint, 10 miles before and 10 miles after King City, do the speed limit, otherwise there be a ticket in your future.

Peter P. it's albacore season. Let me assure you my food loving fiend, I knows how's to cook me's some's albacore.

aofo

28   surfer-x   2006 Aug 23, 6:10pm  

all others fuck off

29   Peter P   2006 Aug 23, 6:11pm  

That is precisely what smart growth is all about: suburban and urban infill, higher density, tranit oriented growth, etc. But it has a bad reputation on this blog.

If only the city allows more hgher density housing. Prop 13 is not helping urban renewal.

If we stop trying to protect everyone, we will find out that everyone is suddenly protected.

30   Peter P   2006 Aug 23, 6:14pm  

Perhaps all you JBR’s could carfool on the way down. A hint, 10 miles before and 10 miles after King City, do the speed limit, otherwise there be a ticket in your future.

I will be coming down with my wife and a friend. I will let them know. Thanks. I usually do speed limit though.

Albacore. Yum.

What time shall we meet? I need to plan activities for my wife and my friend and sneak out for the blog party.

31   Peter P   2006 Aug 23, 6:18pm  

BTW, I am 73% less of a market fundamentalist in person. ;)

32   HARM   2006 Aug 23, 6:19pm  

HARM, will you and that hot young biscuit, aka Mrs. HARM be attending the “lets stop Peter P from eating all the food” party this coming labour day?

But of course. There's no way I'd miss an opportunity to meet the legendary Peter P --in person!!

33   HARM   2006 Aug 23, 6:24pm  

all others fuck off

Awww... c'mon now. What about our other Bay Aryan brothers and sisters? SF Woman, SHTF, skibum, Glen, Conor, etc. Can they at least stop by for cocktails?

34   Mike/a.k.a.Sage   2006 Aug 23, 6:46pm  

I am so very, very thankful that this mother of all housing bubbles has occurred at this point in my life at 45 years. Had it not, the economic catastrophe that will ensue, might have been put off for another ten or twenty years, at which point, I would not be able to make a decent living and prepare for my retirement.

I am so very, very grateful to all those that participated in driving housing prices into the stratosphere so that no normal working class people can afford to buy anything at this point in time. This will hasten the demise of our fake economy and will cause our trading partners to suspend trading with our debtor nation.

Only than can this nation secure our borders, and erect trade barriers against countries that compete unfairly with the working class in the US.
The working class wages have been undermined for decades by cheep wages from overseas, and the importation of cheep labor from south of the border. This practice must end if this nation is to survive. The working middle class must not be allowed to die. The cure that is coming will be like chemotherapy; not pleasant, but necessary.

I am a happy participant sitting on the sidelines, watching the economic disaster unfold in real time. As an experienced machinist, I have seen my prospects of a fruitful life eroded away by wage arbitrage, and the war against the working middle class in this country, for the gain of a few. That will end soon.

I thank you all, for causing the destruction of our current economy, sooner rather than later. I may be a BA (bitter American) for now, but hopefully that will change, when things change for the better, due to the meltdown currently underway.

35   Different Sean   2006 Aug 23, 9:03pm  

hang on, how many janitors jobs have been created by the housing boom? through land speculation, trading little pieces of paper?

all the little people at the bottom have been hurt by being priced out of the market, they will be grateful for a collapse...

36   Different Sean   2006 Aug 23, 9:11pm  

i saw david lereah on a newsfeed for the first time today, talking about the imminent US collapse. he seemed a nice, honest man... :) at the same time, the ABS here pronounced growth of about 2% over whatever period -- i don't get it... although the figures don't include the latest interest rate rise... the various people who compile the figures get them from different sources, so they say different things, and none of them are too accurate anyhow...

i wonder if the market here is just hanging before the fall, and the money is just about to run out... RE agents have been reporting a price slump, so don't know how the esteemed ABS gets 2% growth...

37   Randy H   2006 Aug 23, 11:30pm  

DS,

Quite a few jobs have been created by the growth of consumer credit spending in the US, largely supported by growing home equity "wealth effect". If you generalize that janitor into all the marginal working class jobs created in the economy, I've seen estimates that 6 in 10 up to 8 in 10 are attributable to the housing bubble, over the last 5 years.

38   Michael Holliday   2006 Aug 23, 11:49pm  

surfer-x Says:

"...all others fuck off."
_____

In God we trust "...all others fuck off."

Tell it to the mouse!

:o~~

39   Michael Holliday   2006 Aug 23, 11:49pm  

surfer-x Says:

"...all others fuck off."
_____

In God we trust, "...all others fuck off."

Tell it to the mouse!

:o~~

40   Michael Holliday   2006 Aug 23, 11:50pm  

surfer-x Says:

"...all others fuck off."
_____

In God we trust, "...all others fuck off."

Tell it to the mouse!

:o~~

41   DinOR   2006 Aug 24, 12:33am  

Unfortunately I will be forced into taking SQT's position on the matter.

The "public" and the "private" DinOR.

We have lifelong friends (yes, also clients) who's daughter is like our "third daughter". We have as much camcorder footage of her birthday parties and graduations as we do our own! Well she married a nice guy but regrettably he is originally from Sacramento. A few years ago they moved down there from OR and she took an accounting job w/major homebuilder! So there our "third daughter" is, in the epicenter of the crash (bought in 2005 before they were priced out) and employed directly in RE!

I talked like a "dutch uncle" to stop her mother from making a down payment and said I would manage an account for the kids until there was a better window. Mind you, all the while RE is going through the roof! So a lot of good that did. Now they're stuck, and may soon be stuck with a jumbo payment and no job with which to make it.

Like my old drinking buddy used to say:

The definition of "mixed feelings" is watching your mother-in-law drive off a cliff (in your brand new Corvette!)

42   DinOR   2006 Aug 24, 12:49am  

SFWoman,

I'll agree, but with conditions.

My wife's first job was at the Navy Exchange in San Diego and she said that officer's wives brought back a lot of apparel items on Monday, tags in tact and oddly smelling like perfume? Whatever.

More importantly though Americans are conditioned to believe "the time to buy a home is when you think you can least afford it"! Structure your finances around the home! But GET THAT HOUSE!

In truth though I think our elders were talking about 3/1 bungalows in Cicero, IL, NOT a McChateaux w/ an unworkable commute?

43   Different Sean   2006 Aug 24, 12:50am  

after that brilliant piece of socratic argument, i just read through the last 70 posts - i think people are in opposition from the same side - you're not french, are you? like that french john kerry, thanks rupert murdoch... points to anon tho for coming up with the most humourous plays on 'republican' in one thread...

44   Different Sean   2006 Aug 24, 12:52am  

drgoodword said:
With the housing crash goes not only the housing industry, but the unprecedented housing ATM economic driver. Right now the American economy is like Wile E. Coyote running off the edge of a cliff. For a brief moment, all seems fine…and then gravity kicks in.

i really wonder if this is what the oz market is doing, just before the fall -- the 'responsible' media are too afraid to report a drop -- even the supposedly responsible ABC quoted ABS statistics in the form of 'it always goes up' yesterday...

45   DinOR   2006 Aug 24, 1:02am  

Digger,

Not bad, not bad.

Regardless of party affiliation the very issue you bring up absolutely chaps my @ss! What exactly did you do now to warrant pocketing 200K Mr. Asshat? Oh, I see! You took out the garbage and hung Xmas lights.......

Just like any dad is EXPECTED to do!

Does that entitle you to a guaranteed 125% profit in 4 years?

NO!

46   Different Sean   2006 Aug 24, 1:07am  

i'm allergic to pate de fois gras :(

but brie and champagne are good... :)

i actually like the french, i suppose i was being wryly ironic about the boycott and common republican smear tactics all in one...

47   Different Sean   2006 Aug 24, 1:20am  

SFWoman Says:
I love fois gras, but hate pate de fois gras.

i wonder which part i'm allergic to, then... poor overfed ducks :(

as well as the neo-imperialists

hmm, which party do they belong to... the julius caesar party...

48   Different Sean   2006 Aug 24, 1:20am  

Fukuyama.

language!

49   Different Sean   2006 Aug 24, 1:25am  

i would hold my nose and vote for the dems even tho they're centre right and not liberal enough...

i would say the reps have only gotten it wrong with 1. foreign policy, and 2. domestic policy...

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