patrick.net

Jimbo,

They are building too many of the wrong kinds of dwellings. They are building more and more mcmansions farther and farther into the desert.

They do this because it is hard to navigate the red tape, permitting, NIMBYs, etc. to get approvals for "urban infill" projects, which is what CA really needs.

anon,
give it up.

I won't disagree with you there Glen. That is precisely what smart growth is all about: suburban and urban infill, higher density, tranit oriented growth, etc. But it has a bad reputation on this blog.

Well, if "smart growth" means removing the hurdles to urban development, then I'm for it.

If it is used as an excuse for NIMBYs to block growth that they do not deem to be "smart," then I'm against it.

"I was disappointed, it was a lot lower than I anticipated," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. "What is clear to me is sellers are more stubborn than I expected them to be. We definitely need a correction in prices in order for buyers to come back into the market."

He said he expects home prices to come down 5% nationally, more in some markets, less in others. And a few cities in Florida and California, where home prices soared to nose-bleed heights, could have "hard landings," he said.

Let me translate, SUCK IT HARD SUCK IT LONG

oh oh oh my fucking jeebus clad clown, whoops, I meant my jeebus ... wait a minute I'm drinking and bogging.

HARM, will you and that hot young biscuit, aka Mrs. HARM be attending the "lets stop Peter P from eating all the food" party this coming labour day?

If so, let me know and I shall pencil you in for lodging at my pathetic rental.

All others, fuck off :)

Sincerely

Surfer-X

Many posters here are opposed to smart growth. Most of them blame Californias high home prices on a supposed inability to build houses here.

The truth is, California is building houses like mad. Too many, if you ask me.

We should let the free market, not residents, decide what will be built.

Robert Toll was right that California has too much regulation.

I also believe that all rent control and condo conversion regulations should be dropped.

Rent control is too good at creating bad neighborhoods.

Oh, Randal H. Esq. and Sacramento Sassypants are welcome to stay also.

Perhaps all you JBR's could carfool on the way down. A hint, 10 miles before and 10 miles after King City, do the speed limit, otherwise there be a ticket in your future.

Peter P. it's albacore season. Let me assure you my food loving fiend, I knows how's to cook me's some's albacore.

aofo

all others fuck off

That is precisely what smart growth is all about: suburban and urban infill, higher density, tranit oriented growth, etc. But it has a bad reputation on this blog.

If only the city allows more hgher density housing. Prop 13 is not helping urban renewal.

If we stop trying to protect everyone, we will find out that everyone is suddenly protected.

Perhaps all you JBR’s could carfool on the way down. A hint, 10 miles before and 10 miles after King City, do the speed limit, otherwise there be a ticket in your future.

I will be coming down with my wife and a friend. I will let them know. Thanks. I usually do speed limit though.

Albacore. Yum.

What time shall we meet? I need to plan activities for my wife and my friend and sneak out for the blog party.

BTW, I am 73% less of a market fundamentalist in person. ;)

HARM, will you and that hot young biscuit, aka Mrs. HARM be attending the “lets stop Peter P from eating all the food” party this coming labour day?

But of course. There's no way I'd miss an opportunity to meet the legendary Peter P --in person!!

all others fuck off

Awww... c'mon now. What about our other Bay Aryan brothers and sisters? SF Woman, SHTF, skibum, Glen, Conor, etc. Can they at least stop by for cocktails?

I am so very, very thankful that this mother of all housing bubbles has occurred at this point in my life at 45 years. Had it not, the economic catastrophe that will ensue, might have been put off for another ten or twenty years, at which point, I would not be able to make a decent living and prepare for my retirement.

I am so very, very grateful to all those that participated in driving housing prices into the stratosphere so that no normal working class people can afford to buy anything at this point in time. This will hasten the demise of our fake economy and will cause our trading partners to suspend trading with our debtor nation.

Only than can this nation secure our borders, and erect trade barriers against countries that compete unfairly with the working class in the US.
The working class wages have been undermined for decades by cheep wages from overseas, and the importation of cheep labor from south of the border. This practice must end if this nation is to survive. The working middle class must not be allowed to die. The cure that is coming will be like chemotherapy; not pleasant, but necessary.

I am a happy participant sitting on the sidelines, watching the economic disaster unfold in real time. As an experienced machinist, I have seen my prospects of a fruitful life eroded away by wage arbitrage, and the war against the working middle class in this country, for the gain of a few. That will end soon.

I thank you all, for causing the destruction of our current economy, sooner rather than later. I may be a BA (bitter American) for now, but hopefully that will change, when things change for the better, due to the meltdown currently underway.

hang on, how many janitors jobs have been created by the housing boom? through land speculation, trading little pieces of paper?

all the little people at the bottom have been hurt by being priced out of the market, they will be grateful for a collapse...

i saw david lereah on a newsfeed for the first time today, talking about the imminent US collapse. he seemed a nice, honest man... :) at the same time, the ABS here pronounced growth of about 2% over whatever period -- i don't get it... although the figures don't include the latest interest rate rise... the various people who compile the figures get them from different sources, so they say different things, and none of them are too accurate anyhow...

i wonder if the market here is just hanging before the fall, and the money is just about to run out... RE agents have been reporting a price slump, so don't know how the esteemed ABS gets 2% growth...

DS,

Quite a few jobs have been created by the growth of consumer credit spending in the US, largely supported by growing home equity "wealth effect". If you generalize that janitor into all the marginal working class jobs created in the economy, I've seen estimates that 6 in 10 up to 8 in 10 are attributable to the housing bubble, over the last 5 years.

surfer-x Says:

"...all others fuck off."
_____

In God we trust "...all others fuck off."

Tell it to the mouse!

:o~~

surfer-x Says:

"...all others fuck off."
_____

In God we trust, "...all others fuck off."

Tell it to the mouse!

:o~~

surfer-x Says:

"...all others fuck off."
_____

In God we trust, "...all others fuck off."

Tell it to the mouse!

:o~~

Unfortunately I will be forced into taking SQT's position on the matter.

The "public" and the "private" DinOR.

We have lifelong friends (yes, also clients) who's daughter is like our "third daughter". We have as much camcorder footage of her birthday parties and graduations as we do our own! Well she married a nice guy but regrettably he is originally from Sacramento. A few years ago they moved down there from OR and she took an accounting job w/major homebuilder! So there our "third daughter" is, in the epicenter of the crash (bought in 2005 before they were priced out) and employed directly in RE!

I talked like a "dutch uncle" to stop her mother from making a down payment and said I would manage an account for the kids until there was a better window. Mind you, all the while RE is going through the roof! So a lot of good that did. Now they're stuck, and may soon be stuck with a jumbo payment and no job with which to make it.

Like my old drinking buddy used to say:

The definition of "mixed feelings" is watching your mother-in-law drive off a cliff (in your brand new Corvette!)

SFWoman,

I'll agree, but with conditions.

My wife's first job was at the Navy Exchange in San Diego and she said that officer's wives brought back a lot of apparel items on Monday, tags in tact and oddly smelling like perfume? Whatever.

More importantly though Americans are conditioned to believe "the time to buy a home is when you think you can least afford it"! Structure your finances around the home! But GET THAT HOUSE!

In truth though I think our elders were talking about 3/1 bungalows in Cicero, IL, NOT a McChateaux w/ an unworkable commute?

after that brilliant piece of socratic argument, i just read through the last 70 posts - i think people are in opposition from the same side - you're not french, are you? like that french john kerry, thanks rupert murdoch... points to anon tho for coming up with the most humourous plays on 'republican' in one thread...

drgoodword said:
With the housing crash goes not only the housing industry, but the unprecedented housing ATM economic driver. Right now the American economy is like Wile E. Coyote running off the edge of a cliff. For a brief moment, all seems fine…and then gravity kicks in.

i really wonder if this is what the oz market is doing, just before the fall -- the 'responsible' media are too afraid to report a drop -- even the supposedly responsible ABC quoted ABS statistics in the form of 'it always goes up' yesterday...

Digger,

Not bad, not bad.

Regardless of party affiliation the very issue you bring up absolutely chaps my @ss! What exactly did you do now to warrant pocketing 200K Mr. Asshat? Oh, I see! You took out the garbage and hung Xmas lights.......

Just like any dad is EXPECTED to do!

Does that entitle you to a guaranteed 125% profit in 4 years?

NO!

i'm allergic to pate de fois gras :(

but brie and champagne are good... :)

i actually like the french, i suppose i was being wryly ironic about the boycott and common republican smear tactics all in one...

SFWoman Says:
I love fois gras, but hate pate de fois gras.

i wonder which part i'm allergic to, then... poor overfed ducks :(

as well as the neo-imperialists

hmm, which party do they belong to... the julius caesar party...

Fukuyama.

language!

i would hold my nose and vote for the dems even tho they're centre right and not liberal enough...

i would say the reps have only gotten it wrong with 1. foreign policy, and 2. domestic policy...

breathing problems... apparently 96% of french production is from ducks, only 4% from geese - altho the egyptians originally used geese etc. the rest of the duck is worth more, is why... chances are you would be served duck liver, i guess, as foie gras is technically only 'fattened liver'...

@ Alien - thanks for the lowdown on Topanga!

We drive Topanga Canyon fairly reguarly to and from the SFV and my spirits always lift as we go through the lovely tree-lined valley. It has just the right mix of otherworldiness and dilapidation that I find so attractive.
I've been keeping an eye on Pacific Palisades and the more easterly part of Malibu too, but to be honest they're all a bit too toney and exclusive for me.
From what I can tell, there's been some fairly 'creative' financing for some of these places - $1.5 million places that cost 25% of that in 2000...keeping track of quite a few of these to see what happens.

I take it from your post that you're renting near/at Top 'O Topanga?
Lots and lots of places for sale up there, on the roads with the Native American names...;-)
I'd consider buying one at rock-bottom prices next year, except I have an allergy to gated communities (or compounds, as I prefer to call them) and the extra 10 miles up N Topanga Canyon make them impractical for the husband's commute to Santa Monica.

Re:schadenfreude/guilty gloating:

I'm also of the firm belief that karma will get you every time.
I believe that life doles out exactly the lessons you need , and that gloating on my part is just, well, tacky.
I know that the cosmos will eventually catch up to those that deserve it. No action on my part is needed.

Having said that - I do feel the same exasperation about underwater FBs as I feel towards people who sue tobacco companies after a lifetime of smoking. Despite there having been a warning label on the side of the pack for 30 years, it still comes as a 'surprise' to some that cigarettes will kill you...dammit, Janet, Litigation Time!!
I expect to see a lot of finger pointing in the next few months/years as people try to place the blame on anyone but themselves.

I want no part of the resulting carnage.
"Buyer Beware" and "Always Read the Label before Use" need to be tattooed somewhere discrete on every person over 18.

SFWoman,

I don't know that there's anything necessarily "survivalist" with what some of your friends are doing. In Oregon those are pretty common practices and we derive a certain amount of joy from these things as well.

Now building an "ark" does sound a little weird b/c I don't see what it resolves? What can possibly be less efficient than a yacht?

"These people are distorting markets"

Robert, that is so true! It's not just CA either. While I do have contempt for these people (privately) as an advisor making my personal views on this level of fraud really has no upside and that's why I share my opinions here. Thanks for saying it though.

SQT,

Seriously? There are guys out there that actually do that? That is pathetic. I don't even go to "bowl parties" anymore. Too loud, too much indulgence, too big of a hangover on Monday. Now if they had them on SATURDAY!

FB's? Je ris Tu ris Nous rion

George,

It seems like every 3rd article over at Ben's pertains to the FL market, and it's not good as you well know.

The big difference that I see is realtors are allowed to take positions in the very product they are promoting. Stockbrokers on the other hand have to be the last to buy and the last to sell if they take a common position w/clients. (This way they are buying at the "top" and selling at the "bottom" so to speak, especially with thinly traded issues).

While this seems unfair on the surface it actually makes sense and usually prevents brokers from becoming entangled in their clients affairs. However realtors often own one or more homes in the very projects they are attempting to fill. If RESPA addresses some of these issues pain could be spared on both sides of the transaction.

I'll reserve my schaudenfraude for a very few demonstrably horrid people and in private. But by the same token, I'm not going to be very sympathetic to FBs and flippers.

George,

What I should have said is that both NAR and RESPA need to draw a better defined line between a "broker or agent" and a "market maker".

I am somewhat surprised that no one seems to have actually read this thread's initial post.

I was never talking about people who bought overpriced McMansions, designer handbags or Hummers with slot machine home equity. These people aren't collateral damage, by definition.

What no one seems to want to accept is that there are lots of people -- up to 60% of 1/3 of working Americans across the entire country regardless of the "color" of their state, that rent and are at some risk of losing their jobs because of all this.

And I am a bit surprised at the universal contempt that most everyone here seems to have towards everyday working folks who are guilty only of trying to make a living in an economy that offers them ever more McJobbed opportunities. Everyone seems to be locked into some kind of tunnel vision focusing only the enemy across the trench. Well, all those folks you can't or don't want to see will take the brunt of this; much more so than the FBs you have in your sights.

I think that healthy schadenfreude has become seething anger and outright hatred. Good luck with all that.