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Ptiemann,

Please elaborate --what does the proverb say? Personally, up until this year, I felt more like the fabled Cassandra of Troy.

is that like coals to newcastle? i.e. owls are metaphorically wise, and there were fabled to be many philosophers in athens...

I for one have failed miserably in my attempts to dissuade any loved ones or friends from becoming FBs. Those rare times in the past when I dared commit the blasphemy of disputing "it never goes down" & "buy now or be priced out forever", I was roundly insulted and rebuked. I have a sister in law and two friends/co-workers who became FBs late last year, over my vain protestations.

You can lead a horse to water, but...

I feel it needs more controversy here;

I do a reasonable job of that--and usually not on purpose.

--

Anecdotal from Marin:

I'm looking at a glossy from First Marin Realty. The pretty color kinds that feature "premier" listings. These are in Tiburon & Belvedere. The first one catches my eye, instantly. "Tropical Paradise", it reads. The picture is stunning. Indeed, a luxurious 3-lot tropical landscape complete with pool, cascading spa, etc...

But what catches my eye is the 2,[49]5,000 price. The [49] written atop whiteout. It's like playing the lottery! As I scratch off, revealing the recent asking price, the [49] is replaced by a [99].

That's HALF A MILLION off. That's 17% down right there. Consistent with the "Versailles Palace" in Belvedere that's down over 25%.

I have the good fortune and latitude to confine my comments and guidance to strictly the equity markets, the economy at large (with the potential to make or reserve my opinions where RE is concerned).

Everyone wants to "own" their home. No question. That's a tough one to work around. It's imperative while making your observations clear that you are NOT anti-home ownership (you just don't think it's a good entry point). This usually piques their interest. The usual response is something like; "Oh, I get it". "What you're saying is that if I wait a little longer, prices may come down some and I'll be able to pocket even greater fat stacks of cash down the road?"

At this point they will have at least thought about it before taking that head long plunge into becoming an "FB for life" with no possibility of adequately funding their retirement needs (or immediate needs for that matter).

You've done your job! (Please to note that you need to mark the occasion). Do something completely "out of character". Make an odd and uncomfortable gesture, like walking them back to their car in the parking lot (or not if you normally do). I am SO SERIOUS on this point! Take the pains to do something "odd". Try doing an "about face" with military precision as you end the conversation at the water cooler. Just anything that marks the incident. This way 18 months from now when they're completely underwater and singing the blues you can say, "Do you remember the conversation we had in October 2005?"

The topic started with:

> Please open your hearts, bear witness and share
> your stories of sheeple/FB/specuvestor conversion
> with us now.

Then spike66 Says:

> I also plan to keep my mouth shut and confine my
> opinions to blogging.

As I have said before the reason I like this BLOG is that I can say what I want vs. social settings in SF where I keep my mouth shut after I hear things like:

“We got a great deal on a $2mm condo that sold for $1mm two years ago, I bet it will go for $3mm in two years when we sell to buy a house”

We were able to buy the $3mm place in the Marina with a 4% IO loan fixed for three years. If we can’t afford the payment when it resets we will just get another IO loan or sell and put the $1mm profit in the bank”

My rule is: “That unless a real estate purchase will directly impact me I keep my mouth shut”.

The good news is that (even thought they didn’t finish college) my parents are very smart as is the rest of my immediate family so we all laugh at the bubble heads when the doors are closed.

One thing I learned in sales is that (with rare exceptions) you can not change anyone’s beliefs and even more important that most people spend their entire life trying to convince themselves that the decisions they have made are the best decisions so trying to change them is almost impossible. You don’t see the Mormon kids on bikes out in front of churches trying to convert people, they go door to door looking for people who have already decided that they want a new religion…

jesus (no pun intended) -- divine interecession may well be needed in a deflationary market -- luckily, everyone burying statues of the aforementioned will sort them out -- woe betide those who don't... (see superstition, individualism)

Need a little edge in selling your house? Many people rely on the practice of burying a statue of Saint Joseph, convinced that the patron saint of home life can help them toward a speedy and successful transaction. In Saint Joseph, My Real Estate Agent: Why the Patron Saint of Home Life Is the Patron Saint of Home-Selling, Stephen Binz contends that seeking Joseph's intercession is not a superstitious act, but a devotional one. After having a house on the market for seven months with nary a nibble, Binz sheepishly took the advice of his Presbyterian real estate agent and buried a Saint Joseph statue in his yard. A week after the ritual, he had an offer and sold the house-to a man named Joseph. In this book, he offers advice on intercessory prayer to Saint Joseph, even including a prayer service for burying the statue. He also explores the person and character of Saint Joseph as a husband, father and carpenter, inviting readers to know Joseph in a spirit of "prayerful devotion."

St. Joseph, My Real Estate Agent: Patron Saint of Home Life and Home Selling

SQT,

For all my "soap box preaching" that is EXACTLY my track record. One. That gives me a batting average of .00087!

However; I like to think (I like to think a lot of things) that the real impact was more likely raising your peers level of awareness where equity extraction is concerned. Most people in 2004/5 were not going to say, "OMG, you're right, I'm gittin' while the gittins' good!" Not gonna happen. In fact the data would overwhelmingly indicate that quite the opposite took place.

BUT, if we had a broader impact at least slowing the tide of House ATM withdrawals these folks may fare the downturn better than had the continued their borrow and spend lifestyles!

Randy H,

LOL! That IS a good one!

It reaffirms my long held belief that RE "glossies" are pretty much for entertainment purposes only! In fact they should be labeled as such.

So somewhere between the meeting of the minds that conjured up this "blue sky" price and going to print "price taking seller" lost his nerve to "test the market" and decided he didn't need to add another "priced to sit" listing? What a caffone.

If I were in that market I would be caddying for FAB AND detailing his Audi! Anytime I'm in a market contemplating a purchase you will know b/c I will become every insider in that arena new best friend!

Suck up? (Hey, say what'cha want) you ALWAYS make your money on the BUY!

Its Sticky alright Randy, Sticky in Big Friggin’ Clumps.

Clumps like cat litter? Yuck!

How to convert the wayward sheeple? How about subliminal suggestion?

BTW, why do we need to convert them again?

There are a few I would love to say “I told you so” to, but I doubt I will get the chance. Oh well, karma will do the work for me I’m sure.

Karma is powerful. Have faith.

I loves me some Jeebus, why just the other day Jeebus and I were talking and Jeebus turns and says to me "are you fu$king crazy, why would you want so much debt"?

See, that's why I loves me some Jeebus.

Amen, Brother Coté!

Ditto for brothers X & John P. You obviously have the Spirit --go forth and spread the Good Word!

Yea, I walk through the valley of the shadow debtors, I shall fear no ARM resets; For my cash reserves are my keeper. Your debt load and upside down mortgages comfort me.

For Chrissake’s people, if you’re going to be a RE agent, Please, PLEASE make sure you have a bit of common sense. Your broker will thank you for it.

Now George, I don't know what planet you are from, but in Coastal California, houses sell themselves, all you need is a glossy headshot and the ability (being kind here) to at least be able to sign your name on all the commision checks you'll be getting.

George, I kid I kid :)

Robert Cote'

Every thread from now on should start with the prayer you have handed down to us!

Let us now bow our heads........

George,

That agent was stupid but it sounded like a typical stupid beginner's mistake. Of course, this guy is in his 40s and ought to know better from life experience.

I'm surprised these sorts of etiquette things aren't covered in realtor school.

George,

I'm not sure which was the funniest thing, the clueless newbie, the flopper in foreclosure, the shrewd genius of bill collectors or an agent offering to do an open house for someone IN foreclosure! LOL!

In fact, I am anticipating an inflationary “solution”, which will reward FB’s and penalise savers,

It is written that the only certainty in life is death and taxes. The last and most hideous of the 99 faces of Taxation is:

http://tinyurl.com/outtr

Flat RE prices with 4.5% inflation leads to "I'm not losing money, it hasn't dropped."

-------------------

Thus, there are four classes of potential converts:

1) If they're highly leveraged in a 5.3% 30 year fixed, their Faith in the idioacy of their Mortgage Lenders is more powerful than our Bubble God.

2) If they own the property outright, the death of the buying power of their assets is happening too quietly to convert them.

3) If they are in an ARM, they may be converted to our faith, but Hellfire and Damnation is all that awaits them.

thus, focus your efforts brothers and sisters to the last group:

4) The ones who haven't bought yet.

and lead them to salvation.

George, astrid,

In a way it's sad. Here's a guy in his late 40's and I don't know what his accomplishments or failings were but he came in wide eyed and bushy tailed only to have his ass handed to him in a lunch sack.

This is real common in this phase of the market. All of the older "vets" are hunkering down doing damage control and don't have a minute for anyone (no matter how eager). Rather than get any real mentoring they encounter indifference. The mind set of the vets is that this guy hasn't paid his dues, doesn't have their best clients 250K underwater, isn't underwater himself and....... probably won't make it anyway.

True story, I'll make it quick. Young gal from Portland fresh out of college gets job selling comm. phone service "cold walking". (Mind you she's been on the job starting her SECOND week) goes up on the north side of Columbia Blvd. She is never seen nor heard from again. I went up there ONE time to pick up a boat trailer off a guy from an ad. Brought a baseball bat. Every now and then local channels run a "feature" on the still grieving parents and their quest for "the real killer".

What? Your kidding right?

The "real killer" was her fucking employer for sending a 21 year old girl into the roughest part of town! It's all heavy equipment dealers, strip clubs, pawn shops and tattoo parlors for crissakes. WTF were they thinking! Second week on the "job" and you send her into the roughest part of town BY HERSELF?

This how we treat the next generation of sales people in this country, assuming they make it that far.

Scumbags.

George,
The underlying sad truth about your buffoon realtor story is, given the current RE environment, especially in FLA (tanking), what idiot decides NOW to get into RE? Did this guy just crawl out from under a rock somewhere?

The “real killer” was her fucking employer for sending a 21 year old girl into the roughest part of town!

She should not have gone. I would not have gone if I were her. Much of the Bay Area is a No Go Zone for me.

(We did go to a rough part of San Jose for some ethnic food. My wife said: we risked our lives for THIS?)

That’s HALF A MILLION off. That’s 17% down right there. Consistent with the “Versailles Palace” in Belvedere that’s down over 25%.

RandyH-
That's quite a find--I'll pass it on. I'm sure we'll see other jaw-dropping reductions in the future.

Re: "carrying owls to Athens". Since owls were the symbol of ancient Anthens, I imagine that proverb is akin to "preaching to the choir". Sure, enough of that on these bubble blogs, but some of the concerns were well-founded, IMO.

Brother HARM,
RE: your thread graphic, have you seen the stories about how more sellers are using the St. Joseph statues to help sell their homes? This is the case in heavily Catholic Boston:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2006/08/20/when_sales_fall_they_call_st_joe/

My question: where in the Bible, or whereever St. Joe comes from, does the real estate link come from? Was he a realtor in Bethleham or something? President of the BAR? Was he a New Testament Flipper?

For those that may be even remotely curious this is what we know so far:

www.doenetwork.us/cases/1954dfor.html

What a sad commentary on how we "look out" for younger people and newer sales people. I still think about what her parents must still be going through. They had hoped that the scumbag that's a suspect in the Brooke Wilberger case might "know" something.

Scumbag.

However, as they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

All roads in the Bay Area are paved with gold bricks.

George,

Its Sticky alright Randy, Sticky in Big Friggin’ Clumps.

I'll openly and gladly report observations and analyses even if they contradict my theories or conclusions. In fact, learning I was wrong about something is far more of a growing experience than learning I was right.

THAT SAID (lol, I couldn't resist DinOR), this listing has been on the market since at least late January, perhaps even last Fall then delisted in late Nov 05.

That sounds pretty sticky, but again, one stubborn seller a market does not make. ;)

Peter P Says:

We did go to a rough part of San Jose for some ethnic food. My wife said: we risked our lives for THIS?

Peter, you of all people should realize that some food is worth the risk! We've gone into shady parts of San Josebag for outstanding Vietnamese, or Oakland for ribs and BBQ.

It seems very pagan.

Speaking of pagans... the Wicker Man remake is coming out this Friday. I doubt it can be as good as the original one.

Randy H,

Well how "sticky" is using white-out?

SFWoman Says:

Saint Joseph is the patron saint against doubt and he is represented by carpenters’ tools, so perhaps that is why they bury one of those? It seems very pagan.

Not to sound like a fundamentalist purist, but it's funny to me how much of Christian and Catholic tradition seems indeed pagan and or idolatric (is that a word?) in nature: Christmas trees, celebrating Christmas near the winter solstice, patron saints, the rosary, Virgin Mary worship, Mormon protective undergarments, etc. Not to offend anyone of those faiths, but I just find it fascinating.

I have always been fascinated by the Catholic patron saints. It is, er, interesting....It seems very pagan.

I imagine the practice arose from ancient Rome's pantheon of gods. As a onetime catholic, even I find the whole thing confusing. It would suck to be a "saint" if you're burdened for all eternity by the faithfull's prayers, like a NYC switchboard. Burying St. Joseph in your front yard for "seller's luck" really takes it. Yep, from an anthropological standpoint, it's very similar to beliefs we now deem "pagan".

Peter P,

I hear you on the "no go zone".

Even the services do a better job than this. (Perhaps b/c we were considered "property" of the U.S taxpayers). Any time we went up to the BA we were told stay out of Hunter's Point, this street and ESPECIALLY this bar or whatever.

I'm from the southside of Chicago but there's plenty of places that everybody knew nothing good ever happens! We need to help young people, not just let them "sink or swim"! IMHO.

George Says:

As long as price levels remain consistent (even if slightly declining), it remains easy to list the flips you buy well at 5-10% below everyone else.

You bring up a very intersting point. If indeed the RE market experiences a more or less "orderly" decline, it seems plausible to be able to continue to profit as a flipper. If you're able to purchase properties below comps and "flip" them quickly enough at prices below comps while still raking in a net profit, you can basically take advantage of distressed sellers on the buy side and falling knife-catchers on the sell side. I wonder how feasible this is?

it’s very similar to beliefs we now deem “pagan”.

That's because in order to stamp out paganism - all the Christian holidays and beliefs etc were tailored to coincide with pagan ones - Christmas=Winter Solstice etc

Robert, nice adaptation of the 23rd. I actually did my own a few months back:

http://patrick.net/wp/?p=161

The Realtorâ„¢ is my Shepherd; I shall not want.
He maketh me to lie down in green pastures
He leadeth me beside the still waters.
He restoreth my soul
He leadeth me in the paths of appreciation for Amerika’s sake.

Yea, though I walk through the Valley of the shadow of Bitter Renters,
I will fear no Bubble: For thou art with me;
Thy Lexus and thy staff, they comfort me.
Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine bidders;
Thou annointest my head with liquidity; My cup runneth over.

Surely bounty and wealth shall follow me all the days of my life,
and I will dwell in the House of Everlasting Appreciation forever.

Any time we went up to the BA we were told stay out of Hunter’s Point, this street and ESPECIALLY this bar or whatever.

Much of the SF is not that safe anyway, not just Hunter’s Point. There are bad areas in Atherton, Menlo Park, and Palo Alto.

Even Sunnyvale, one of the "safest" cities in the US, does not look that safe.

Why is the Bay Area so infested with gang problems?