patrick.net

Auto Correlation (Causal effect with a time lag).

If I were in quantitative economics these large Debt and the following debt restructuring is done because the debt was not brought under control in a timely manner.

If you just printed up a bunch of money and eased it away, the Question is - is that capitol spent efficiently and result in a ROI?

You cannot blame the Germans for being furious. Who the hell does Tsipras think he is, Germany? In 1953 Germany still owed many, many, billions to the Western countries for war reparations and costs. The West forgave 50% of that debt and the remainder was allowed to be paid back in small increments tied to the improvement of Germany's economy. Tsipras has a lot of gall!

saroya says

You cannot blame the Germans for being furious. Who the hell does Tsipras think he is, Germany? In 1953 Germany still owed many, many, billions to the Western countries for war reparations and costs. The West forgave 50% of that debt and the remainder was allowed to be paid back in small increments tied to the improvement of Germany's economy. Tsipras has a lot of gall!

Did that know that - didn't surprise me though!

Also, when East and West Germany merged, they were allow to wildly violate EU Debt standards for a decade.

saroya says

In 1953 Germany still owed many, many, billions to the Western countries for war reparations and costs. The West forgave 50% of that debt and the remainder was allowed to be paid back in small increments tied to the improvement of Germany's economy.

Link please!

zzyzzx says

saroya says

In 1953 Germany still owed many, many, billions to the Western countries for war reparations and costs. The West forgave 50% of that debt and the remainder was allowed to be paid back in small increments tied to the improvement of Germany's economy.

Link please!

Easy, like taking candy from a baby or clubbing a baby seal. Thanks zzyzzx http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/27/greece-spain-helped-germany-recover

Wow, is the Guardian seriously comparing todays public deficits, which are a result of out of control government spending and massive tax evasion, with war reparations? Reparations are an arbitrary fine that is roughly sized to the ability of the fined economy to pay.

Do they seriously want to compare the devastated Germany after WW2 with its destroyed infrastructure, millions of refugees and starving population to modern day Greece which has been enjoying a western lifestyle for decades?

Do they think forgiving half of the money will have the same effect as rebuilding a bulwark against an eastern superpower? If it wasn’t for the imminent cold war confrontation nobody would have considered reducing the fine. I don't think Greece can claim the same situation today.

Are they equally optimistic about the Greek economy and its highly educated workforce that it will experience a roaring comeback such that half the debt can easily be paid back by growing exports?

Tsipras makes the most sense of all the European politicians I have seen in a while. He is able to distinguish between the French, German and other banks that flooded Greece with unsustainable credit (and enjoyed high interest) and the EU tax payers (mostly German) who are now asked to bail them out.

thunderlips11 says

As you can see from actual observation of reality, the correlation between defaulting and shrinking GDP is, shall we say, "Overstated".

Yea, but it was a hell of a rough ride for the people living there.

libero says

Do they seriously want to compare the devastated Germany after WW2 with its destroyed infrastructure, millions of refugees and starving population to modern day Greece which has been enjoying a western lifestyle for decades?

Half the debt was cancelled in 1953 - that was 8 years after the surrender. West Germany also received major stimulus in outright grants, the stationing of countless UK and American troops spending their pay, and delivery of aid in the form of food, goods and tools direct from the USA.

Unlike Greece, Germany was a belligerent. Greece has fought the Nazis and stayed a Western Ally since the moment Italy attempted to invade the country. Their reward for fighting the Nazis and Italians tooth and nail the whole war was to have Churchill ram the same Nazi Collaborators and the old King down their throats. And sponsor several military coups. Why should loyal Greece be treated worse than a former two-time belligerent?

And the damage to German industry was grossly overstated. Again, production increased every month of the war until just before the very end when raw material shortages and interdiction and invasion finally took their toll. Precision bombing didn't work in WW2 either.

thunderlips11 says

And the damage to German industry was grossly overstated. Again, production increased every month of the war until just before the very end when raw material shortages and interdiction and invasion finally took their toll. Precision bombing didn't work in WW2 either.

Well put libero,....and don't get us started on the relaxation of reserves required by the EU on Germany's Central Bank when Germany needed 5-6 years to assimilate the former Eastern Germany starting in 1990.

One other quick point: Greeks work the most hours in the Eurozone. Almost 1/3 more hours per year that holiday lovin', shortened work week, high vacation/sick time usin' Germans. Once you figure that it and look at retirement by lifetime hours worked, the Germans are lazy sods and the Greeks are workin' their asses off. Greeks also enter the workforce earlier.

thunderlips11 says

One other quick point: Greeks work the most hours in the Eurozone. Almost 1/3 more hours per year that holiday lovin', shortened work week, high vacation/sick time usin' Germans.

Lazy Germans sit on their fat asses and go on long vacations but somehow manage to flood the whole world with their high-quality exports while hardworking Greeks work their asses off but nobody ever seen anything made in Greece (except maybe some canned olives at TJ). So where all this hard work goes?

"The debate in the EU shouldn't be austerity vs. spending, but over the regulations and labor laws that make it hard to do business."

Historical events are irrelevant here. Greeks need to stop living their past.
http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/30/steven-rattner-europes-anti-competitiveness-problem/

gsr says

"The debate in the EU shouldn't be austerity vs. spending, but over the regulations and labor laws that make it hard to do business."

Historical events are irrelevant here. Greeks need to stop living their past.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2015/01/30/steven-rattner-europes-anti-competitiveness-problem/

Past is prologue. People keep comparing Germany to Greece, but forget that both have had very different situations in the past 70 years, with Germany being the Golden Child recipient of grants, aid, special favors, debt forgiveness, and privileges at ever turn; but not Greece.

Straw Man says

Lazy Germans sit on their fat asses and go on long vacations but somehow manage to flood the whole world with their high-quality exports while hardworking Greeks work their asses off but nobody ever seen anything made in Greece (except maybe some canned olives at TJ). So where all this hard work goes?

Read the above, and the other thread where 50% debt forgiveness in 1953 was mentioned.

The US/UK went all out to rebuild Germany and help it establish an export market and create an ideal worker-business state with lots of vacations, short work weeks, and benefits. Greece got Western-sponsored military governments for most of it's post WW2 history instead.

Germany: You have problems? Let's give you money build big factories, keep people employed, and help you sponsor a generous social welfare state. We'll write off most of the debt later, and help you pay the rest by directing imports from you.

Greece: You have problems? Let me give General Souvlaki 3 B-26 Marauders armed with bombs. Now, bomb the suburban neighborhood where all the problems are. Here's a 10 year multimillion dollar 15% interest loan to pay for it, your Greek workadays can pay for their own bombing.

thunderlips11 says

Past is prologue. People keep comparing Germany to Greece, but forget that both have had very different situations in the past 70 years, with Germany being the Golden Child recipient of grants, aid, special favors, debt forgiveness, and privileges at ever turn; but not Greece.

I can guarantee you that debt forgiveness won't make an iota of difference in Greece. They will keep messing things up.

thunderlips11 says

Straw Man says

Lazy Germans sit on their fat asses and go on long vacations but somehow manage to flood the whole world with their high-quality exports while hardworking Greeks work their asses off but nobody ever seen anything made in Greece (except maybe some canned olives at TJ). So where all this hard work goes?

Read the above, and the other thread where 50% debt forgiveness in 1953 was mentioned.

What some debt forgiveness in the 50s has to do with my question re what all this supposedly "working harder than Germans" Greeks are producing now? Where are the fruit of their long working hours and years?

gsr says

I can guarantee you that debt forgiveness won't make an iota of difference in Greece. They will keep messing things up.

Greeks didn't ask for the loan. Mr. and Mrs. Whateverpoulos never wanted it. What happened was that the EU didn't want to change their German-bank/neoliberal friendly laws, so they tossed money at the problem.

Well, the problem didn't get fixed.

The current government wants to change the EU rules, not more money.

Straw Man says

What it has to do with my question re what all this supposedly "working harder than Germans" Greeks are producing NOW? Where are the fruit of their long working hours and years?

Unlike Germany, Greece never got billions upon billions of freebies from the Marshall Plan and Uncle Sam Deep-pockets. The only thing Greece got from the West other than high interest loans was bombs for the Military General-Presidents to bomb the populace with.

Now they're in the Euro, which makes their exports expensive and difficult to market.

thunderlips11 says

Read the above, and the other thread where 50% debt forgiveness in 1953 was mentioned.

The US/UK went all out to rebuild Germany and help it establish an export market and create an ideal worker-business state with lots of vacations, short work weeks, and benefits. Greece got Western-sponsored military governments for most of it's post WW2 history instead.

You are conveniently ignoring the fact that Greece has the earliest retirement age in the EU. Meanwhile in Germany, they are thinking of raising it to 69. Greeks have become lazy. The hard-working ones left the country.

thunderlips11 says

Greeks didn't ask for the loan. Mr. and Mrs. Whateverpoulos never wanted it. What happened was that the EU didn't want to change their German-bank/neoliberal friendly laws, so they tossed money at the problem.

Agreed, it has been a futile exercise. BTW, the same goes for Greece. They have failed to implement single reform.

thunderlips11 says

Now they're in the Euro, which makes their exports expensive and difficult to market.

Bingo! That, coupled with heavy regulations have choked the growth. OTOH, German products flood the Greek market.

Needless to say, Greece needs to get out of Euro and experience a *real* austerity. And, Germany needs to experience a recession.

thunderlips11 says

Unlike Germany, Greece never got billions upon billions of freebies from the Marshall Plan and Uncle Sam Deep-pockets.

Bullshit: Greece was a participant of Marshall Plan too.

"On March 17, 1948, President Harry S. Truman addressed European security and condemned the Soviet Union before a hastily convened Joint Session of Congress. Attempting to contain spreading Soviet influence in Eastern Europe, Truman asked Congress to restore a peacetime military draft and to swiftly pass the Economic Cooperation Act, the name given to the Marshall Plan.
...

Truman signed the Economic Cooperation Act into law on April 3, 1948; the Act established the Economic Cooperation Administration (ECA) to administer the program. ECA was headed by economic cooperation administrator Paul G. Hoffman. In the same year, the participating countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, West Germany, the United Kingdom, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United States) signed an accord establishing a master financial-aid-coordinating agency, the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (later called the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or OECD), which was headed by Frenchman Robert Marjolin."

Straw Man says

Bullshit: Greece was a participant of Marshall Plan too.

Got piss compared to Germany. It's like saying that GM and Wanita Jackson got the same level of welfare.

gsr says

Needless to say, Greece needs to get out of Euro and experience a *real* austerity. And, Germany needs to experience a recession.

Greece should dump the Euro, then it wouldn't need Austerity. Flocks of vacationers will go to the Islands on Vacay, versus spending Euros and encountering high prices in the Malorcas or in Tuscany or either side of the Adriatic.

There's bupkiss historical evidence that Austerity works. Financiers want it because A) Almost guarantees price deflation, making their loan worth the same or better yet, more. B) panic selling from those who can't sell what they produce and have to unload = picking up assets for a song for those with cash reserves and C) It guarantees any gov't revenue will be spent on debt payments to them.

gsr says

You are conveniently ignoring the fact that Greece has the earliest retirement age in the EU. Meanwhile in Germany, they are thinking of raising it to 69. Greeks have become lazy. The hard-working ones left the country.

You're ignoring that if you count the hours worked, Greeks are the longest working Europeans, the Germans are at or near the bottom in hours worked.

Greeks start working earlier, busing tables at 16,17,18. Germans bum around until their mid-to-late twenties when they finally find their "Real Job" and the idea of a trade school or college grad working at a restaurant or stocking shelves to earn money until then is anathema to them.

Not only was 50% of the debts cancelled, but Germany got outright grants (not loans), plus all kinds of export assistance. AND, much of Germany's debt was postponed until "Reunification", which means decades of US/UK export assistance and free loans to accumulate wealth.

Germany needs to pay back the ~500M Deutschemarks it forced Greece to loan it when it invaded the country in WW2. With 3% compounding interest, that would be about 95B Euros. That doesn't include the massive quantities of agricultural and metals it took on without compensation.

thunderlips11 says

here's bupkiss historical evidence that Austerity works. Financiers want it because A) Almost guarantees price deflation, making their loan worth the same or better yet, more. B) panic selling from those who can't sell what they produce and have to unload = picking up assets for a song for those with cash reserves and C) It guarantees any gov't revenue will be spent on debt payments to them.

I don't think the current austerity works. It is an attempted bailout of the bondholders.

But please remember that Greeks did enjoy the benefit of strong euro for sometime until the bill came. There is enough blame to go around.

With a weaker currency, they will have to get accustomed to a lower level of consumption until their productivity lifts their GDP.

gsr says

But please remember that Greeks did enjoy the benefit of strong euro for sometime until the bill came. There is enough blame to go around.

Wealthy Greeks saw the value as their properties and concerns got valued in Euros. Regular Greeks only saw their rents go up, their wages stay the same.

Going back to the Drachma would probably result in at least one attempted Coup attempt by 1%ers.

gsr says

With a weaker currency, they will have to get accustomed to a lower level of consumption until their productivity lifts their GDP.

Probably. Most of their debt is probably in Euros, though.

thunderlips11 says

Straw Man says

Bullshit: Greece was a participant of Marshall Plan too.

Got piss compared to Germany. It's like saying that GM and Wanita Jackson got the same level of welfare.

Useless without per capita numbers.

thunderlips11 says

You're ignoring that if you count the hours worked, Greeks are the longest working Europeans, the Germans are at or near the bottom in hours worked.

Greeks start working earlier, busing tables at 16,17,18. Germans bum around until their mid-to-late twenties when they finally find their "Real Job" and the idea of a trade school or college grad working at a restaurant or stocking shelves to earn money until then is anathema to them.

So you're saying that people should be paid for their effort, not the results of their labor? We've heard this tune before, Comrade.

Straw Man says

thunderlips11 says

Straw Man says

Bullshit: Greece was a participant of Marshall Plan too.

Got piss compared to Germany. It's like saying that GM and Wanita Jackson got the same level of welfare.

Useless without per capita numbers.

If you're going to contest on those grounds, feel free to post the evidence.

Straw Man says

So you're saying that people should be paid for their effort, not the results of their labor? We've heard this tune before, Comrade.

"Make Work Pay".

thunderlips11 says

Not only was 50% of the debts cancelled, but Germany got outright grants (not loans), plus all kinds of export assistance. AND, much of Germany's debt was postponed until "Reunification", which means decades of US/UK export assistance and free loans to accumulate wealth.

Germany needs to pay back the ~500M Deutschemarks it forced Greece to loan it when it invaded the country in WW2. With 3% compounding interest, that would be about 95B Euros. That doesn't include the massive quantities of agricultural and metals it took on without compensation.

Please don't confuse many of the posters here with facts. It makes their heads hurt and then they start throwing Palin wordsalads at the rest of us.

thunderlips11 says

Straw Man says

Bullshit: Greece was a participant of Marshall Plan too.

Got piss compared to Germany. It's like saying that GM and Wanita Jackson got the same level of welfare.

But then you can go back to WW1 and the ridiculous reparations (Germany was ransacked back then), with 3% compounding interest this is quite a large sum - who is going to reimburse for those? But I think Germany at least partially "defaulted" back then and I have no problems with a Greek default, esp. since the recent loans were made knowing they were already bankrupt. So do a proper BK/default proceeding (it will hurt the banks where it should), but to demand that Germany pays Greece after WW2 has been settled is absurd, esp. since all allies and Greece agreed.

Tsipras is an idiot: All he needs to do is continue austerity a couple more years until he runs a surplus and then leave the euros and default.

And creditors do know now that this is exactly what might happen.

So all your talks of WW2 is BS. The past is the past and Greece will have it's debt relief. It just needs to do its homework.

Heraclitusstudent says

Tsipras is an idiot

who just brought on board a brilliant top-tier professor of economics who was employed by the world's finest universities.

Yanis Varoufakis is a personal friend of Minsky Credit-cycle advocate Steve Keen, one of the handful of economists who predicted the International Housing and Credit Bust:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2015/01/31/my-friend-yanis-the-greek-minister-of-finance/

thunderlips11 says

who just brought on board a brilliant top-tier professor of economics who was employed by the world's finest universities.

He made promises he can't keep, was elected based on anger, and goes to a poker game where everybody else knows he's bluffing.

Heraclitusstudent says

thunderlips11 says

who just brought on board a brilliant top-tier professor of economics who was employed by the world's finest universities.

He made promises based on nothing, was elected based on anger, and goes to a poker game where everybody else knows he's bluffing.

How many troops do you think the modern German Populace will agree to send to Athens to enforce their demands?

thunderlips11 says

How many troops do you think the modern German Populace will agree to send to Athens to enforce their demands?

The real question is how many troops will Greece send to get the money it needs.

Professor Varoufakis in London:

The chancellor hosted a meeting at 11 Downing Street with his Greek counterpart, Yanis Varoufakis, who, just a week after being elected, is on a whistlestop tour of Europe to win support for renegotiating Greece’s €240bn (£181bn) bailout.

“We had a constructive discussion, and it is clear that the standoff between Greece and the eurozone is the greatest risk to the global economy,” Osborne said. “I urge the Greek finance minister to act responsibly but it’s also important that the eurozone has a better plan for jobs and growth.

“It is a rising threat to the British economy. And we have got to make sure that in Europe, as in Britain, we choose competence over chaos.”

Varoufakis, fresh from talks in France on Sunday, was in London before meetings with the Italian prime minister, Matteo Renzi, and the head of the European commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.

Varoufakis expressed optimism that a deal could be achieved within days. “There will be a deal within a very short space of time that is going to make it perfectly clear to everyone that Greece can play within the rules and in a way that puts the Greek crisis away, once and for all,” he told Channel 4 News.

The economist, who was appointed finance minister last week after anti-austerity party Syriza swept to power, has offered to produce proposals for a reworked debt deal within a month. He has appointed Lazard, the US investment bank, to advise on Greece’s negotiations about its debt, which amounts to more than 175% of GDP.

Sounds like the Chancellor is more worried about Syriza standing firm and stretching out the timeframe to a deal, than Syriza is worried about making a deal.

How many divisions and cash for the occupation of Athens does City of London have?

thunderlips11 says

Sounds like the Chancellor is more worried

This country is not even in the euro zone. Are they gonna pay for Greece? I don't think so.