patrick.net

Hausmeister T says

Is that so

So far so good. Dollar traced out the prediction above almost exactly. A multi-month correction will now carry the dollar down to the 84-85 range.

Conversely, the Euro will see gains of the same magnitude (in the opposite direction, of course).

darlag says

So far so good. Dollar traced out the prediction above almost exactly. A multi-month correction will now carry the dollar down to the 84-85 range.

Not so fast this was your "prediction" 9/29/14 and it wasn't even close to how the dollar preformed over the last 4mo.

http://patrick.net/?p=1250133

http://www.barchart.com/interactive_charts/futures/DXY00

I am not convinced the dollar has hit it's high water mark yet although it may have there is still room for a new high. I agree the dollar may retest however I would be at least considering the high 88's for some reaction and the point for it's journey back to new highs.

Graybox says

Not so fast this was your "prediction" 9/29/14 and it wasn't even close to how the dollar preformed over the last 4mo.

Since you're not all that familiar with EW, here's a detailed 2 hour look at the climb, a three wave correction into wave (iv) and a five wave impulse into wave (v). Pretty easy call.

The only remaining question is whether Subminuette wave v has completed. There may be another buck in the offing, but it could also have turned last week.

As for the depth of the pull back, in EW, wave 4 of one lesser degree is a typical area to look for a reversal. That would be in the 84-85 area. While your guess of 88 is certainly possible, that would be a very shallow wave 2 of Minor degree, approx. 38% of wave 1 (and a Fibonacci level, so that part's good), but typically a .5 or .618 is a more common area for a second wave and wave [iv] of Minute degree is within 50 cents of a Fibonacci .618 -- a better fit for this structure.

We'll know in a few months.

Graybox says

Not so fast this was your "prediction" 9/29/14 and it wasn't even close to how the dollar preformed over the last 4mo.

http://patrick.net/?p=1250133

http://www.barchart.com/interactive_charts/futures/DXY00

I showed you the confirming chart. Wave [v] was extended which is not unusual. I tried to help you understand it, that's all I can do. This is not a pissing contest.

Do you notice the word imminent, now 4mo later you are basically saying the same thing after price has run up 10+/- points.

Graybox says

Do you notice the word imminent

One more time... wave [5] extended. It happens often. I'll give you that imminent was not a good choice of words at that juncture, but that doesn't change the count.

I can't help you more than I already have. You can have the last word.

LOL....

darlag says

that doesn't change the count.

As if that matters, really.

darlag says

I'll give you that imminent was not a good choice of words at that juncture,

10 points is very significant concerning DXY.

darlag says

I can't help you more than I already have.

Absolutely true..... I already know the EW strengths as an indicator as well as its weaknesses.

darlag says

You can have the last word.

I have heard that one before.

DXY, new highs yesterday and counting.
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=DXY00&style=technical&template=&p=WO&d=X&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=2&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump

The DXY just keeps going up up and away.
S&P taking a rest while the USD is on the stage.
S&P to follow. Not looking for anything more than
2.5% - 5.5% pullback in the S&P. Best guess......

A real shift has to take place before any real change
to trend can take affect. USD and US equities strength
should continue until Euro concludes it's current situation
one way or another... Not to mention the war factor effect of
other nations

USD is just reloading and the US equities should be the benefactor.
RE not so much however may receive some benefit from the gusher
of money flow coming to the USD.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102478157

Euro drops under $1.10; USD hits 11-1/2 year peak

That French wine, BMW, European Vacation is now cheap cheap cheap.

Cheaper for us, but not so much for the Europeans.

DXY screaming again.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
97.5 @ resistance odds of getting below 92.50
on retest are slim and losing the odds.....
S&P off to new highs soon

Graybox,

BTFD?

hanera says

Graybox,

BTFD?

On price confirmation of a plan already developed.
I know where I want to buy on confirmation before I commit,
then it's up to price to prove I'm wrong. I also can admit when
I'm wrong and have all the contingencies in place for capitol
preservation in that event before the buy or sell is executed.

I trade and hope to get a longer term investment out of it, most here
invest and don't trade in the real context of trading as it were.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?[SECT]

If you have planned it out then that's what I would do...

Nice, another new high in the DXY.....98.60 with a high probability of challenging 99.5-102
soon. Meanwhile S&P giving up little as it waits for the DXY retest (95+/-?) before unleashing it's
new highs.

What others see as stretched in the technicals seem not be able to weigh price on an ongoing bases
and the true effect of retest. The real technical numbers as a whole are not as stretched as most may
think as retest relieve that tension.

Some cause and effects due to this environment is gold should test 1075 which has small odds of being
a bottom and oil should continue on it's path to 31-28. Gold's high water mark of resistance now is 1220-1230
and oil is 55.
http://www.barchart.com/interactive_charts/futures/CLY00

DXY hit the logical resistance price with a new high 99.51 On a close above that the next
resistance zone I see starts at 101.32-102.20.By weight IMHO it will be easier for both S&P
and DXY to go up then down. Something of significants will have to happen in order to break
the current trends otherwise the pull backs are just tension relief in price. My take is that price
may go into retest as it consolidates in to a range however I am looking for new highs in both
before that range has been established.

"Technical analysis" is astrology for investors, someone said. I forget who.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-tumbling-euro-143736470.html

#1: The dollar bears were dead wrong. The dollar hasn't just rallied vs the euro...it's on a tear vs. almost every other major currency. The lesson here: folks like Glenn Beck, Peter Schiff and many others who implored you to dump your dollars, stock up on canned goods and buy gold are just modern day snake oil salesman -- they also have a political ax to grind vs. an economic one. The hard core dollar bears weren't just concerned about 'Helicopter Ben', they also believe President Obama was a foreign-born, Muslim socialist (or worse, a Commie!) bent on destroying the greenback..and the American way of life.

Strategist says

The dollar bears were dead wrong

It's a relative reevaluation of assets. If the real estate outside of US was expensive relative to US a year ago, that's no longer the case or at least it's more balanced now. Real, Ruble, and many others are 50% down. .

My personal belief that many of these currencies will bounce but they may fall more before the bottom. In the example of Ruble, you are getting 16% annual to hold it vs 0 in US.

tr6 says

Strategist says

The dollar bears were dead wrong

It's a relative reevaluation of assets. If the real estate outside of US was expensive relative to US a year ago, that's no longer the case or at least it's more balanced now. Real, Ruble, and many others are 50% down. .

My personal belief that many of these currencies will bounce but they may fall more before the bottom. In the example of Ruble, you are getting 16% annual to hold it vs 0 in US.

And yet foreigners don't want to invest in rubles. Even Russians are willing to give up 16% return in Rubles, for the safety and reliability of the good old greenback.
It's not just our dollar, our real estate and stocks are also more attractive.

justme says

"Technical analysis" is astrology for investors, someone said. I forget who.

I use both and they keeps me on the right side of the trade 65-80%
of the time, so "they" whom ever they are can compare to what ever they
choose.

So do you have anything of real value to contribute....??? What do you use?

Strategist says

And yet foreigners don't want to invest in rubles. Even Russians are willing to give up 16% return in Rubles

Actually if you bought ruble when they announced 16% interest rates in December 2014 you would be up about 7 to 8 % right now. Not bad for 3 months.

justme says

"Technical analysis" is astrology for investors, someone said. I forget who.

http://stocks.about.com/od/Technical-Analysis/fl/Technical-Analysis-Your-Advantage-in-the-Stock-Market.htm

DXY dollar index new overnight high 100.06 (nice ;)
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

Graybox says

DXY dollar index new overnight high 100.06 (nice ;)

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

The DXY is up 25% from one year ago. Somehow I don't feel 25% richer. :(

Strategist says

Somehow I don't feel 25% richer.

Dollar strength is deflationary for US and inflationary for countries whose currencies are weakening so you should feel richer as things such as oil are getting cheaper.

tr6 says

Strategist says

Somehow I don't feel 25% richer.

Dollar strength is deflationary for US and inflationary for countries whose currencies are weakening so you should feel richer as things such as oil are getting cheaper.

Houses he owned is also getting higher... unless he didn't own any house, what a horror!