patrick.net

Yes, it "helps" people engage in bidding wars, like if they still exist in SD at all!

Soon enough...

“They need to buy. We have an extraordinary inventory, excellent interest rates, 60% lower prices than just a few years ago. What are they waiting for?”

In talking to him yesterday I had to suppress my shock in learning that the annual interest on his mortgage is over $300,000.

Holy ____! What's the principal on that--$20M+?

Yes, that $300k/year annual interest is hard to believe on a government salary.

Don't worry. One can pay his mortgage by taking out a home-equity loan.

Holy ____! What’s the principal on that–$20M+?

If he pays 6% interest, the principal would be 5M.

If he pays 4% interest, the principal would be 7.5M

Ouch! 50K to 100K of property tax a year!

I'd like to know what kind of "government job" pays enough to buy a $5-7 million house?? The President of the United States only earns $400,000 a year in salary.

I’d like to know what kind of “government job” pays enough to buy a $5-7 million house??

Above or below table?

I am very aware that on this blog, I am perceived as a homeowner who doesnt want his home’s price to slip, and who is all “rah-rah” for Marin County intangibles, and therefore in total denial and unable to see the obvious.

No, you are actually very objective even without considering the fact that you are a homeowner.

“need based predictions can work both ways”…

This is why we need faith-based predictions. ;)

Re: “need based predictions can work both ways”…(implying that I have a need to see the price of my property hold up?…..and dont worry, I’m just arguing because I enjoy the back and forth too much, no big deal!)

Jack, no--I was not directing my rant at you (and rant it was). I'm only suggesting that some investor optimism I heard in Marin strikes me as a need for the market to go up--versus the alternative. Ok, so I picked apart Marin, but it was only to get at the heart of those "intangibles"; I could roast Palo Alto just as easily.

"Cycles": I think both you and I agree the RE inflation since '98 is vastly different than previous booms. Hell, take Marin's growth data for 20 years previous to the bubble, and extrapolate to today, the difference is huge. So, it's an unprecedented boom; what follows is hard to predict.

Jack, I apologize if I sound dismissive; I'm not trying to pidgeon-hole you. Like you, the reason I'm striving to make a point here is based on previous experience too. Up north, my family lived in this somewhat chi-chi waterfront country club, exclusive, "prime," bla, bla, bla.. (Tiburon here is the closest analogy).
Life was good, until the bottom fell out of Boeing, and droves lost their jobs, plummeting proprety values. That's a little bit of where I'm coming from, hence my angle on the current scene.

MarinaPrime, San Francisco median prices dropped from 776K in July-05 to 745K in Aug-05.

BTW, do you want to have sushi this weekend? Seriously. Jack needs to go to Hayweird.

From July-04 to July-05, SF (not just BA) median went from 650K to 668K. Oops, there was a sizable increase from July to Aug last year.

There is a decrease this year from July to August. The market is turning in San Francisco?

Sub-prime locations are registering huge growth. Should I change my name to "San Jose Sub-Prime"?

Then, I’d just drive the mofo around, and as prices only go up for
ever and ever, I figure with gas prices and housing insanity colliding I
should be able to refi my bubblemobile at the gas station everytime I fill
er up, using the cash out to buy the gas. I can just drive this damn thing around the earth FOREVER!

Amoney, LMAO...that's a perputual money machine.

Jack, Kurt, interested in lunch this Saturday?

Jack, Kurt, interested in lunch this Saturday?

Yeah, that would be cool to hang w/you guys--time/place?

All your points are worthy of much consideration, and I often read your posts twice. Even Monty Python.
Hey, thanks...yeah--and your posts keep me from straying too far into "the bear pit"

I can't top Monty Python; perhaps I should simply quote them from now on?

Yeah, that would be cool to hang w/you guys–time/place?

I am planning to go to Marin county this Saturday to look around and take some pictures. I know nothing about the place but I guess we can meet in one of the restaurants you guys recommended. :)

(My wife is going to a cruise so I will be alone. :( )

That leaves me a rather small window. Besides really FULL by dinner! Perhaps meeting up for coffee or something might be easier for me on this particular weekend.

That's sounds good to me. Kurt, what do you think?

If you make it around 1:30, I could hang out for awhile at least. We should meet somewhere central, unless you guys want to meet in Fairfax WAY out here!

That's fine with me. Or San Rafael?

Sushi or Thai are both fine to me.

Jack, Kurt, if you both agree, I will send you the e-mail address of the other person.

Let’s move to e-mail so MP cannot figure out where we meet. Just in case he decides to troll restaurants as well. :)

That leaves me a rather small window. Besides really FULL by dinner! Perhaps meeting up for coffee or something might be easier for me on this particular weekend.

That’s sounds good to me. Kurt, what do you think?

I'll be around until 3 pm...one option would be Marin Brewing Co. (Larkspur), since it's close proximity to 101 (ok, close to me) I'm good for anywhere along SFD.

http://www.marinbrewing.com/

Two or three sushi bars on fourth street also… but Kurt likes Thai food….

I'm totally open to anything...except that Thai restaurant on 4th, Lisanne and I got something nasty there. Ok: email--kurtstory[at]yahoo[dot]com

It is only when I come to this site, I see a lot of comments on house prices going down

SK,
I think what I've noticed sofar here (and a few others elsewhere) is increased inventory, and lagging sales, which could be a precursor to falling prices. Just a guess.

Decreasing sales, increasing inventory, unstable market.

Wow, no kidding! I'm surprised a realtor publishes these figures.
I suppose the increasing inventory I've seen isn't a "local anomaly".

Look at this:
http://tinyurl.com/a5hw6

That market looks quite unstable - what’s next? Will houses for sale decrease as the owners take them off the market, or even higher as more folks try to sell before it’s too late?

@BubbleSitter,

Leading/Lagging indicators of a bubble bust was actually the subject of a previous thread (“I See Debt People” July 12th, 2005 : patrick.net/wp/index.php?paged=5). Most of us were in general agreement that rising unsold inventory and time-to-sell are both leading indicators preceding busts in previous RE cycles.

Houses take longer to sell as the pool of potential buyers who can afford the payments (even with NAAVLPs) dries up. Smart speculators, sensing a shift in the market psychology gradually move to the sidelines, and so inventory slowly but steadily builds.

Crazy loans: Is this how the boom ends?
Lenders are pushing risky loans with low payments. Desperate home buyers snap them up. Worried yet?
MONEY Magazine: tinyurl.com/7tze2

At greatest risk, says David Lereah, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, are markets where a majority of buyers are opting for nontraditional loans.

"There will be cases where lenders and borrowers will be caught with their financial pants down," he says.

Wow. :shock:
Did David Lereah, chief pimp for the NAR, just say something truthful, or have I fallen into an alternate Universe? Hmmm... default risk must now be so obvious that even the NAR feels the need to start its CYA campaign.

But like I said, not even my dog listens to me.

My cats do not listen to me either, they still want me to buy them a cat condo. :)

Some strange shit going down today.
First, Bush makes a speech promising massive LBJ-style federal spending programs to help poor hurricane victims, now David Lereah telling the truth. What's next??

Tomorrow's headlines(?):

Victory Declared in the War on Terror - Osama says "my bad" and turns self/comrades in to U.S. Military

Cats and Dogs Living Together

He's definitely a conservative when it comes to the culture war/family values thing, but as you say, not on spending. Hence the term, "Big-Government Conservative".

Personal disclaimer:
I'm a registered independent. I don't care for PC, knee-jerk neo-liberalism any more than I care for stingy, militaristic neo-conservatism.

"stingy, militaristic neo-conservatism."

Awwwwwww.

_hangs head and starts to walk away_

_kicks cat_

_walks a bit futher_

_kicks a poor person_

_walks a bit further_

_kicks a defenseless puppy_

_walks a bit further_

_starts a preemptive unilateral war_

_walks a bit further_

_holds side while cackling with Karl Rove, exposing razor sharp yellow teeth_

Cheers,
prat

LOL
Ok... now what about "PC, knee-jerk neo-liberalism"??

_hangs head and starts to walk away_

_rescues cat from shelter_

_walks a bit futher_

_gives homeless person his money (homeless person spends it all on booze/drugs)_

_walks a bit further_

_gives illegal immigrant a drivers license_

_walks a bit further_

_goes to Hollywood/George Soros sponsored anti-war rally_

_walks a bit further_

_holds side while cackling with Bill Clinton, exposing self to girls at strip club_

Nice piece. As a guess, I'd say AG's recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the "legacy" before his retirement.

I am sure SactoQT will enjoy that picture also.

You know it!

Isn't it interesting that the Sacto area seems to be leading the BA in the changing of the RE picture. In the past, we've tended to follow. But I think the rampant building out here has changed the picture. It's impossible to sustain BA type price increases without the factors that make the BA unique.

Btw. Love Harm and Prat's take on the politics of the day.

Nice piece. As a guess, I’d say AG’s recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the “legacy” before his retirement.

On his last day, he will say...

"By the way, it is now possible to ascertain the existence of the national housing bubble. It is certain that the bubble will burst and people will be ruined. It is very likely that the slide will start tomorrow when I am on the beach."

Nice piece. As a guess, I’d say AG’s recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the “legacy” before his retirement.

If this thing is a ticking time bomb and it goes off the "legacy" will definitely get shot to Hell.

...It is very likely that the slide will start tomorrow when I am on the beach.”

"And now I'd like to introduce everyone to my successor, the new Fed Chairman: Michael Brown."

Peter P

Do you think he would say it that coherently? I wonder what that would sound like in Greenspeak?

"By the way it is now possible to conjecture that there may be some spilling over of the froth that is now in the housing market. Is is assured that the spill over will occur and people will find their earnings in a state of deterioration. It is likely the overflow will occur after I absent myself to a sandy luminous retreat."