patrick.net

Re: “need based predictions can work both ways”…(implying that I have a need to see the price of my property hold up?…..and dont worry, I’m just arguing because I enjoy the back and forth too much, no big deal!)

Jack, no--I was not directing my rant at you (and rant it was). I'm only suggesting that some investor optimism I heard in Marin strikes me as a need for the market to go up--versus the alternative. Ok, so I picked apart Marin, but it was only to get at the heart of those "intangibles"; I could roast Palo Alto just as easily.

"Cycles": I think both you and I agree the RE inflation since '98 is vastly different than previous booms. Hell, take Marin's growth data for 20 years previous to the bubble, and extrapolate to today, the difference is huge. So, it's an unprecedented boom; what follows is hard to predict.

Jack, I apologize if I sound dismissive; I'm not trying to pidgeon-hole you. Like you, the reason I'm striving to make a point here is based on previous experience too. Up north, my family lived in this somewhat chi-chi waterfront country club, exclusive, "prime," bla, bla, bla.. (Tiburon here is the closest analogy).
Life was good, until the bottom fell out of Boeing, and droves lost their jobs, plummeting proprety values. That's a little bit of where I'm coming from, hence my angle on the current scene.

MarinaPrime, San Francisco median prices dropped from 776K in July-05 to 745K in Aug-05.

BTW, do you want to have sushi this weekend? Seriously. Jack needs to go to Hayweird.

From July-04 to July-05, SF (not just BA) median went from 650K to 668K. Oops, there was a sizable increase from July to Aug last year.

There is a decrease this year from July to August. The market is turning in San Francisco?

Sub-prime locations are registering huge growth. Should I change my name to "San Jose Sub-Prime"?

Then, I’d just drive the mofo around, and as prices only go up for
ever and ever, I figure with gas prices and housing insanity colliding I
should be able to refi my bubblemobile at the gas station everytime I fill
er up, using the cash out to buy the gas. I can just drive this damn thing around the earth FOREVER!

Amoney, LMAO...that's a perputual money machine.

Jack, Kurt, interested in lunch this Saturday?

Jack, Kurt, interested in lunch this Saturday?

Yeah, that would be cool to hang w/you guys--time/place?

All your points are worthy of much consideration, and I often read your posts twice. Even Monty Python.
Hey, thanks...yeah--and your posts keep me from straying too far into "the bear pit"

I can't top Monty Python; perhaps I should simply quote them from now on?

Yeah, that would be cool to hang w/you guys–time/place?

I am planning to go to Marin county this Saturday to look around and take some pictures. I know nothing about the place but I guess we can meet in one of the restaurants you guys recommended. :)

(My wife is going to a cruise so I will be alone. :( )

That leaves me a rather small window. Besides really FULL by dinner! Perhaps meeting up for coffee or something might be easier for me on this particular weekend.

That's sounds good to me. Kurt, what do you think?

If you make it around 1:30, I could hang out for awhile at least. We should meet somewhere central, unless you guys want to meet in Fairfax WAY out here!

That's fine with me. Or San Rafael?

Sushi or Thai are both fine to me.

Jack, Kurt, if you both agree, I will send you the e-mail address of the other person.

Let’s move to e-mail so MP cannot figure out where we meet. Just in case he decides to troll restaurants as well. :)

That leaves me a rather small window. Besides really FULL by dinner! Perhaps meeting up for coffee or something might be easier for me on this particular weekend.

That’s sounds good to me. Kurt, what do you think?

I'll be around until 3 pm...one option would be Marin Brewing Co. (Larkspur), since it's close proximity to 101 (ok, close to me) I'm good for anywhere along SFD.

http://www.marinbrewing.com/

Two or three sushi bars on fourth street also… but Kurt likes Thai food….

I'm totally open to anything...except that Thai restaurant on 4th, Lisanne and I got something nasty there. Ok: email--kurtstory[at]yahoo[dot]com

It is only when I come to this site, I see a lot of comments on house prices going down

SK,
I think what I've noticed sofar here (and a few others elsewhere) is increased inventory, and lagging sales, which could be a precursor to falling prices. Just a guess.

Decreasing sales, increasing inventory, unstable market.

Wow, no kidding! I'm surprised a realtor publishes these figures.
I suppose the increasing inventory I've seen isn't a "local anomaly".

Look at this:
http://tinyurl.com/a5hw6

That market looks quite unstable - what’s next? Will houses for sale decrease as the owners take them off the market, or even higher as more folks try to sell before it’s too late?

@BubbleSitter,

Leading/Lagging indicators of a bubble bust was actually the subject of a previous thread (“I See Debt People” July 12th, 2005 : patrick.net/wp/index.php?paged=5). Most of us were in general agreement that rising unsold inventory and time-to-sell are both leading indicators preceding busts in previous RE cycles.

Houses take longer to sell as the pool of potential buyers who can afford the payments (even with NAAVLPs) dries up. Smart speculators, sensing a shift in the market psychology gradually move to the sidelines, and so inventory slowly but steadily builds.

Crazy loans: Is this how the boom ends?
Lenders are pushing risky loans with low payments. Desperate home buyers snap them up. Worried yet?
MONEY Magazine: tinyurl.com/7tze2

At greatest risk, says David Lereah, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, are markets where a majority of buyers are opting for nontraditional loans.

"There will be cases where lenders and borrowers will be caught with their financial pants down," he says.

Wow. :shock:
Did David Lereah, chief pimp for the NAR, just say something truthful, or have I fallen into an alternate Universe? Hmmm... default risk must now be so obvious that even the NAR feels the need to start its CYA campaign.

But like I said, not even my dog listens to me.

My cats do not listen to me either, they still want me to buy them a cat condo. :)

Some strange shit going down today.
First, Bush makes a speech promising massive LBJ-style federal spending programs to help poor hurricane victims, now David Lereah telling the truth. What's next??

Tomorrow's headlines(?):

Victory Declared in the War on Terror - Osama says "my bad" and turns self/comrades in to U.S. Military

Cats and Dogs Living Together

He's definitely a conservative when it comes to the culture war/family values thing, but as you say, not on spending. Hence the term, "Big-Government Conservative".

Personal disclaimer:
I'm a registered independent. I don't care for PC, knee-jerk neo-liberalism any more than I care for stingy, militaristic neo-conservatism.

"stingy, militaristic neo-conservatism."

Awwwwwww.

_hangs head and starts to walk away_

_kicks cat_

_walks a bit futher_

_kicks a poor person_

_walks a bit further_

_kicks a defenseless puppy_

_walks a bit further_

_starts a preemptive unilateral war_

_walks a bit further_

_holds side while cackling with Karl Rove, exposing razor sharp yellow teeth_

Cheers,
prat

LOL
Ok... now what about "PC, knee-jerk neo-liberalism"??

_hangs head and starts to walk away_

_rescues cat from shelter_

_walks a bit futher_

_gives homeless person his money (homeless person spends it all on booze/drugs)_

_walks a bit further_

_gives illegal immigrant a drivers license_

_walks a bit further_

_goes to Hollywood/George Soros sponsored anti-war rally_

_walks a bit further_

_holds side while cackling with Bill Clinton, exposing self to girls at strip club_

Nice piece. As a guess, I'd say AG's recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the "legacy" before his retirement.

I am sure SactoQT will enjoy that picture also.

You know it!

Isn't it interesting that the Sacto area seems to be leading the BA in the changing of the RE picture. In the past, we've tended to follow. But I think the rampant building out here has changed the picture. It's impossible to sustain BA type price increases without the factors that make the BA unique.

Btw. Love Harm and Prat's take on the politics of the day.

Nice piece. As a guess, I’d say AG’s recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the “legacy” before his retirement.

On his last day, he will say...

"By the way, it is now possible to ascertain the existence of the national housing bubble. It is certain that the bubble will burst and people will be ruined. It is very likely that the slide will start tomorrow when I am on the beach."

Nice piece. As a guess, I’d say AG’s recent reversals are more about 11th hour CYA and preserving the “legacy” before his retirement.

If this thing is a ticking time bomb and it goes off the "legacy" will definitely get shot to Hell.

...It is very likely that the slide will start tomorrow when I am on the beach.”

"And now I'd like to introduce everyone to my successor, the new Fed Chairman: Michael Brown."

Peter P

Do you think he would say it that coherently? I wonder what that would sound like in Greenspeak?

"By the way it is now possible to conjecture that there may be some spilling over of the froth that is now in the housing market. Is is assured that the spill over will occur and people will find their earnings in a state of deterioration. It is likely the overflow will occur after I absent myself to a sandy luminous retreat."

“By the way it is now possible to conjecture that there may be some spilling over of the froth that is now in the housing market. Is is assured that the spill over will occur and people will find their earnings in a state of deterioration. It is likely the overflow will occur after I absent myself to a sandy luminous retreat.”

LOL :lol:

Wow, SactoQt - that was so good, maybe YOU should apply for the job (*not employment advice*). ;-)
G'nite all...

Wow, SactoQt - that was so good, maybe YOU should apply for the job (*not employment advice*).
G’nite all…

Oops. My post got messed up somehow.

I meant to say thanks........ I think.

Nite Harm.

Hymie

You mentioned that you wonder what happens to people who move out of state to afford a house after the market falls. I can give you my personal experience, and I bet it'll be fairly close to what happens to a lot of people.

My parents found themselves priced out of the Ca housing market back in late 70's early 80's. I don't know what the market in Ca was doing at that particular time, but it was my family's situation nonetheless. Anyway. We moved to Oregon and my parents were able to buy a really nice house in a nice area and all was well, for awhile. Turns out, Oregon wasn't really our cup of tea. Or maybe it was just the town. It was really small and everyone was in everyone else's business. My family lasted 5 years.

We moved back to Ca and were able to find a house. Housing must've fallen in the 5 years we were gone in order for my parent's to afford a house, and it definitely fell in Oregon because my parent's couldn't give the house away. They rented the house out for a few years, put it up for sale again and still couldn't get rid of it. My mom's friend worked at the bank and said that people were turning their keys in because no one was buying anything. That's what my parent's ended up doing.

..........zzzzzzzzzzzZZZZZZZZZZZZ..........._IRQwakeup_ ....

Hi All,
I need some more therapy.
I can almost believe that RE can go up forever.

Ahhh, RE's little conundrums:-
1) Short term rates increasing, long term rates dropping.
(AG's problem, not mine)
2) Median house price increasing, house prices dropping.
(can happen, where different market segments are behaving differently)
3) House owners being equity rich, but being cash poor.
(SEP (Someone Elses Problem))
4) House prices going up, owners being able to redraw less on equity.
(Interest rates going up will limit loan ammounts that can be serviced)

(Not real life advice)

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...........

We should probably organize more get togethers should this Saturday works out.

1) Short term rates increasing, long term rates dropping.
(AG’s problem, not mine)
2) Median house price increasing, house prices dropping.
(can happen, where different market segments are behaving differently)
3) House owners being equity rich, but being cash poor.
(SEP (Someone Elses Problem))
4) House prices going up, owners being able to redraw less on equity.

Looks like we are in the decade of conundrum.

Remember that Star Trek TNG episode of the same name? We will eventually figure it out.

“It’s getting a little bit scary right now,” she said. “I’m not a person of means. I’m a retired nurse and a widow and I don’t have millions to call upon.”

Generas, 64, moved to a condo in Tierrasanta last spring and put a $1.1 million asking price on her 1,879-square-foot, three-bedroom home in Kensington. Since then, it’s been in and out of escrow three times and is listed at $950,000 to $975,000. Her son Tony is house-sitting and helping cover her two mortgage payments, which total $6,000 a month. But she’s not ready to accept lowball offers.

Sorry, but I need to comment.

Which bank in their right mind would lend a retired person this ammount of money. A quick reality check here please.
Did the lender ok the loan on the basis that a retired person has an income stream to make payments, or was this a bridging loan?

It would appear that she was allowed to be in a financially risky position.
Was this her choice, or her incompentant lawyer or banker?

The banks must be sweating for October 17.

GREED IS BAD.