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Will Strategist be right?
Which ETF & % ... anything that has Lowes or Home Depot in it has been a plus or pure home builders? The only reason I went on CNBC to talk about TOL & XHB is because the growth they're saying on air for 6 months was just simply not true, you needed to see the Builders up 44% on total sales to get that type of growth, it started at 24% and then went lower when rates moved from 3.625%- 4.125% so they missed the revision story like most people do on the up and down side with new homes
If I told people back in 2013 ( When Housing Was Supposed To Be In Nirvana) that New Home Sales would be struggling to break through 500K in 2015 with 3.625%-4.125% everyone would have laughed at me and said I was out of my depth ....
Sales are so low that the downside is limited but the market place has been telling everyone a story for years, very few listened.
It's all about how much lower priced homes they can sell next to existing inventory which is much cheaper, that until demographics get better for housing
Will Strategist be right?
Which ETF & % ... anything that has Lowes or Home Depot in it has been a plus or pure home builders?
ITB - up 30%+
AAPL - $130.00
S&P 10%+
OC Median home prices - 15%+
ITB - up 30%+
This is a good point ITB was $26 dollars In Early 2013 and it be open at $27.11 into 2016 :-)
but I think it was $9 bucks at the bottom
ITB - up 30%+
This is a good point ITB was $26 dollars In Early 2013 and it be open at $27.11 into 2016 :-)
but I think it was $9 bucks at the bottom
What about the OC median?
What about the OC median?
Much higher than 15% from the bottom in 2011/2012
Let's take my home, 2006 it appraised for $695,000 it went to as low as $395,000 and now is $625,000
My rental home peak 2006 was $320,000 got as low as $170,000K and Now last model sold $270K
What about the OC median?
Much higher than 15% from the bottom in 2011/2012
What? It's already there. I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.
I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.
Are you still drinking?
I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.
Are you still drinking?
I just poured some wine into a small glass to enjoy with my dinner.
I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.
Year over Year? Peak Price gains YoY was in 2013, I don't see that happening next year 15% year over year with inventory rising
I am hearing from a few of my friends that rentals-atleast in the east bay-are slowing down and even slightly dropping? Is this true?
I am hearing from a few of my friends that rentals-atleast in the east bay-are slowing down and even slightly dropping? Is this true?
Yes, there is a bit of a slow down in rents and sales as well. I saw a house fall through from pending that I though would go for sure. Also one of my neighbors that bought a house at the bottom is putting it for sale (never lived in it for 4 years; I think he is Chinese national).
I'm expecting a 15% increase in the OC median from today to Dec 31, 2016.
Are you still drinking?
I just stopped drinking. For some strange reason there was nothing left in the bottle. :(
I'm in San Diego and I'm seeing a lot of homes come onto the market on Redfin, which seems weird given it's not Spring/Summer.
Also,
New Homes 500K in sales
Existing Homes 5.2 million in sales
Though New Homes is more important to the economy
Each sector has it's own value , New Home inventory is well over 5 months now, so their is no reason for the slow down in the rate of sales from the start of the year, unless the demand curve really did get weaker from a 0.50% move up in rates.
Existing homes as been more steady, though growth has been more difficult since the Taper spike in rates in 2013.
5.10 2013 Miss
4.90 2014 Miss
5.20 ( roughly) around there, is on par with some estimates .
Not much velocity in this cycle, a lot low bar starting points
New Homes 500K in sales
Existing Homes 5.2 million in salesThough New Homes is more important to the economy
Each sector has it's own value , New Home inventory is well over 5 months now, so their is no reason for the slow down in the rate of sales from the start of the year, unless the demand curve really did get weaker from a 0.50% move up in rates.
Existing homes as been more steady, though growth has been more difficult since the Taper spike in rates in 2013.
5.10 2013 Miss
4.90 2014 Miss
5.20 ( roughly) around there, is on par with some estimates .Not much velocity in this cycle, a lot low bar starting points
OK, I get it. Please remember December 2011 was even worse. A lot lot worse. But what happened? A huge wave of desperate buyers who suddenly decided the time was right to buy. This Spring the time will be ripe again, except it will be a Tsunami of desperate buyers.
OK, I get it.
No you don't, it is about demographics, and hopefully jobs
I thought you understood "theory of comparative advantage" This is a U Turn.
I thought you understood "theory of comparative advantage" This is a U Turn.
Splain me
OK, I get it. Please remember December 2011 was even worse. A lot lot worse. But what happened? A huge wave of desperate buyers who suddenly decided the time was right to buy.
Disagree 100% due to this fact, if the 50 year avg for new home sales is 700- 750K, just the average rate of sales.
The add the fact
322 million Americans
153 Million working Americans
Interest rates below 5% since early 2011
Here is the rolling 8 year sales trend, ignore the miss by Wells Fargo for 2015, it's still a toss up if we even close at 500K this year....
That means 8 years running we have never broken over 500K sales with the lowest mortgage rate curve post WWII
This is why I found the pent up demand thesis not only to be funny, but to be mathematically incoherent with the data
I wonder if it is the modern economy. With jobs being so fluid and transient-do people even want to buy homes? I bought one , because it is a low cost area. now if you have a business etc or an overseas Chinese dude with tons of cash you want to get out of China-then fine. But for the average American job person-upper middle income-one never knows what the newest corporate strategy-aka outsourcing-Is going to hit.
Tru Dat, but the mercantilism will presumably subside for a while. IOW China has to start building a consumer society and that is not going to happen by continuing to devalue the yuan. Which is why Mexico and other countries are going to start seeing some benefit from this shift. Other than India, I don't see any other countries that can play the same game as China. And India is hopeless mired down with bureaucratic corruption. The US on the other hand will grow hopefully with good jobs.
I wonder if it is the modern economy. With jobs being so fluid and transient-do people even want to buy homes? I bought one ,
People tend to buy when they have kids,
2015 has 5.7 million roughly total homes bought, this with a mild demographic cycle too.
I have always had this economic process for strong demand curve housing cycles
Americans
1. Rent
2. Date
3. Mate
4. Marry
3.5 - 6 years after marriage = kids and = home buying. College educated dual incomes Americans, the best of bread buy homes. The rest are renters and probably will be renters the rest of their lives unless something changes for them
This is a huge factor why I was 100% sure back in 2010 this cycle would have the worst demand curve post WWII
However, renting for longer periods is a norm now and staying at home with your parents is very strong in this cycle
What I wrote in 2010
“The longer term consequences of an unstable residential real estate market may be more serious than just the destruction of individual wealth. The ideal of middle class home ownership may be at stake. The census bureau reported a 7% decline in national rental vacancy rates in 2010, along with an overall decline of 0.7% in home ownership rates compared to a year ago. There were fewer “organic†buyers, more renters and more investment buyers in the market in 2010 and I expect this trend to continue into 2011. Are we at the beginning of a sociological movement away from middle class home ownership and towards a cultural split between the investment property landlords and their renters both of whom may have less personal investment in neighborhood security, local schools and shared public facilities compared to primary homeowners.â€
A lot pent up demand for renting in coming years
Time, these Americans simply need more time
Also, Gen X got thrashed in the Housing bubble and those cashing out 2-4 times took out a lot equity, it's why you see a lot boomers renting homes, household formation has been strong by those over the age of 40 renting
Logan prides himself on emulating Harry Dent. (8^())
I like Harry, but his thesis on demand curve economics in relationship to the economy is dreadful, I have actually never read his work
for this reason. Once in a while I see a headline that always gives me his laugh. I do have some of his readers as facebook friends, so it seems like we are in line with things
since demographic economics is something that rarely gets mentioned.
However, Dent has been terrible this cycle, his tactic is prolong his 6,000 call until the cycle ends which in this cycle, the cycle lasted to long for the Perma Bears.
I have had a lot fun with my Perma Bear friends in this cycle ;-)
Not to mention Dent called for a crash in 2010, he probably had the worst economic cycle out of anyone in the past 50 years
Not sure Dent knows what a business cycle is.
Still he is a great marketing guy, anyone else that would have been this wrong for 7 years would have been fired or lost his readership with 3 stock market crashes in 7 years.
He does point out how effective demographics are in predicting markets. Beyond that not so much, there are too many moving parts in an economy just to focus on demographics.
there are too many moving parts in an economy just to focus on demographics.
I am huge demographic guy myself, but the sole focus on demographics and not adding any other moving part variables into the equation leads him to some of the worst calls I have ever seen in my life.
Malthus failed, look at the price of wheat, he never would have believed on commodities being so much cheap at this cycle of human history
Perhaps Malthus can be excused as technology was not so obvious a catalyst for change as it is today. Who would have predicted a Norman Borlaug?
The reality today is that technology trumps all other factors in the economy you might say economic progress/higher standard of living is solely from technology.
That's why you need to believe that humans will still move forward with process and technology advances
:-)
2015 Commodity ETF Returns
Oil: -46%
Nat Gas: -41%
Broad Commodities: -28%
Agriculture: -17%
Silver: -12%
Gold: -11%
Not to mention Dent called for a crash in 2010, he probably had the worst economic cycle out of anyone in the past 50 years
To be fair though, guys like Dent and Schiff make good arguments as to why the economy should be worse than it is. If the gov't suddenly decides to create trillions in easy money to fight off recession, then it's just kicking the can down the road and temporarily making doomsayers "look stupid", but it doesn't mean they're wrong. It's not in the control of doomsayers if the gov't intervenes to delay the inevitable.
Am I wrong?
To be fair though, guys like Dent and Schiff make good arguments as to why the economy should be worse than it is.
When Dent says down 6,000
That means millions of jobs lost and really at this point a 2nd Great Recession, he has 3 calls in 7 years of this happening. = #EpicFail
Peter is just dreadful,
Gold 5,000
Oil 200
Recession, Recession, Recession
Part of me doesn't really care because this is marketing material for them which I understand why they have to do it.
Economic cycles have 7-10 year life spam so be bearish 100% of the time, you will be right 3X in 20 years.
So, they can't ever say anything good really because their followers would leave them. This is the Zero Hedge game plan.
Yellow Journalism, Or Bubble and Crash talk is very popular this century so it makes sense for them to be very down beat on humanity itself.
Marc Faber is another one in the group
To be fair though, guys like Dent and Schiff make good arguments as to why the economy should be worse than it is. If the gov't suddenly decides to create trillions in easy money to fight off recession, then it's just kicking the can down the road and temporarily making doomsayers "look stupid", but it doesn't mean they're wrong. It's not in the control of doomsayers if the gov't intervenes to delay the inevitable.
Am I wrong?
If they are way off and wrong after many years, yes, they are wrong. Sure, they printed trillions, but a growing economy can absorb the trillions over time. Some of it would be taken back when the economy starts taking big jumps.
Hi Logan,
Can you please give a short summary for "Dummies" please? Something like "will go up by x%, or will go down by x%"?
I don't understand the charts or what they mean really, not my industry.
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/12/30/bloomberg-interview-2016-housing-predictions/
Another note, since I went on CNBC (June) and warned that TOLL Brothers was over rated and Builders index is pricing in too much growth and not growth from a low bar...
Both have fallen double digits from the top, XHB, barely positive for the year, all that hype early on with housing, fell flat toward the end of the year
#Housing
#Economics