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I welcome the right and left to join forces against me for the next 15 years and their massive American crash economic theories, Or U.S. citizens becoming Serfs or some deflationary spiral
Last 5 years I have studied the hard left and right and what they preconceive to be economic equilibrium to some disaster American end
I have realized that
A. Investing thesis
B. Actually don't have a background in economics or versed in economic data
C. Create False economic theories base on their own political and economic ideology back ground
This is very normal in history for the extreme left and right cry a sad river pain when they just act like Drama Queens
So, I renounce them all, every last one of them and their false death and destruction theories
We aren't Europe, Japan, South American, Russia or some desperate debasing currency exporting nation that gets punished when the dollar rise
You people picked the wrong country to bet against...
This time .... someone is going to call you both out... because once we get this recession and it doesn't creates Serfs or some titanic deflationary spiral, or some Great Depression
They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.
This is battle I am willing to wanting to take on 2021! No Great American Depression...
They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.
You are free to have your opinion that demographics somehow override inequality. And that real wages will somehow go up as more people enter the workforce.
But don't pretend that economic data supports your theory. All the charts and graphs you've posted support my thesis. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.
. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.
Get on talking .. this is game plan for the next 15 years to show the extreme left are just as off as the extreme right
Your lack of understanding employment to population economics shows
Your lack of understanding employment to population economics show
You often mistake disagreement as lack of understanding. I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.
I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.
If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America
Except Americans don't cry, Americans don't beg, We work!
I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden
Your children and grand children becoming Serfs ... why would you ever put them through that horror?
If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America
What are you talking about?
I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden
Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.
... and houses can only go up?
Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.
It has been my honor, namaste.
@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.
@Strategist what do you think
BWA HAHAHAhahahahahaHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!
Our Shakespeare read the crisis facing Venezuela, the country that is over the cliff. He is in deep pain at the thought of his comrades being overthrown.
Eat some cake, Jazz.
And I want to help fix this country, not run away.
fixing a country is different than 1929 depression and we are serfs
Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.
The best way you can help is......do nothing.
fixing a country is different than 1929 depression and we are serfs
Obviously. Not sure why you would think otherwise.
Obviously. Not sure why you would think otherwise
Lead from strength not weakness
When you start saying Serfs and Great Depression that is fear and when that reality doesn't happen, the people that do need help then now and in the past won't get it
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4ei1 … Real Median Household Income is a function of a) Real Median Weekly Earnings and b) the Participation Rate
The Real Recession is over: real median weekly earnings are finally at fresh all time highs.
Your days of channeling data to not show the entire story are done , 5,000,000 charts will counter everything you put here
This is My site now with economic data
According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) increased to 193,000 in February from a downwardly revised estimate of 157,000 in January. The current estimate beat the previous cycle high of 177,000 unfilled positions set last May and represents the highest monthly count of job openings since July 2007.
Which goes to my point that we are closer to full employment and what is left in this cycle can't be filled because we are labor light
Below 3% from college Grads on unemployment and last leg of high school drop outs were being hired fast in 2015
What's left
Low level quality, Drug addicts, Criminal active people
New York Times just had a piece saying how hard to was to hire someone because a lot people couldn't pass a drug test
Every sector has job openings and this stage of the cycle if you're not working it's you, it's not the economy
This is why Claims, JOLTS, LEI and are important in economic cycle timing ..
We don't have a job problem in America, plenty of jobs out there and after year 8 of this cycle, if someone hasn't worked in 8 years, it's not the economy faults
Need a quick course in demographic economics and here is BLS table for 1. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted
You're Deflationary Spiral thesis is just as bad as the Gold Bugs, Don't you dare leave this site come 2020 when post Recession cycle looks nothing like you're claiming it be
You're mistaking YoY % over a long term extended run
Not the correct way
And another Logan cop-out. Can't answer the question?
Jesus Holy $)(_#0-
Wow...
You can't believe this non sense, you're just talking for the sake of debating this is bordello madness
I refuse to believe what you said
And another Logan cop-out. Can't answer the question?
No cop outs you're both off the Grid... I even gave you the data, You're not even versed in... Seriously
No... No.... No...
I refuse do believe this, you can't be this far off the Grid, no way
And you can't keep posting this chart that is average of all earnings. The 1% is doing great and will skew that chart.
Seriously for the sake of not totally being embarrassed post the next recession
Older economies have limited capacity growth, that's given.
However, you're running right into a young work force bigger than the Boomers with a median college 2015 Grad pay of 48K-54K
This isn't going to end well for you Deflationary Depression Spiral thesis
This isn't going to end well for you Deflationary Depression Spiral thesis
I'm afraid it's not going to end well for 99% of the US population.
Another point that could create a crink in Logan's thesis is that if the interest rates go up to just 4% the debt service will be 1.5 Trillion. Plus it will be twofer in that the value of the treasuries the Fed holds will go down in value.
This I'm paraphrasing from David Stockman.
Anyway add this to the pile of un-refuted points I have made.
Older economies have limited capacity growth, that's given.
And that's another ridiculous statement. What is limiting US capacity of anything?
What is limiting US capacity of anything?
When you're a young country... infrastructure build is massive, because you're building out for a growing labor force.
When you're older country, you start doing things like repair because a lot your infrastructure build out is limited
This is why countries always grow really fast when they're young and when they get older their growth models fall because they're big.
Here in America we were awesome because we had a mass immigration for decades which lead to massive booms in prime age labor force in 1980's and 1990's and now you see that growth peaked in 2007
My next article will explain why we haven't been able to to get to the 50 year average in housing starts up to 1.5 million that everyone thought would be so easy in this cycle
Demographics matter and as you can see below so does labor force growth
When you're a young country... infrastructure build is massive, because you're building out for a growing labor force.
When you're older country, you start doing things like repair because a lot your infrastructure build out is limited
This is why countries always grow really fast when they're young and when they get older their growth models fall because they're big.
Here in America we were awesome because we had a mass immigration for decades which lead to massive booms in prime age labor force in 1980's and 1990's and now you see that growth peaked in 2007
Yes, thanks for that lesson. My question was what is limiting our capacity of anything? Labor, capital?
Because what you forgot to mention in your lesson was that older countries are much, much more efficient than younger ones. All those productivity gains every year mean that US capacity is actually growing every year. It takes much less labor to produce today vs. 100 years ago.
We grew our economy from 2 trillion to near 19 trillion in 1980's and 1990's no it wasn't Reagan or Clinton it was awesome prime age labor force growth
Labor, capital?
Every question you have just think of these 2 charts
Both of you two aren't versed in demographic economics and that's fine not a lot people but that's my thing.. prime age labor force growth matters
I hate to tell you this but we are never going to agree on American economics ever not for second
Both of you two aren't versed in demographic economics and that's fine not a lot people but that's my thing.. prime age labor force growth matters
You think it's just magic, don't you? If there are people aged 25-54 than the economy magically grows.
Others, like me, understand why it has worked this way in the past and why it may NOT work that way in the future.
Gold Bugs have their thing and you Liberals have your thing
But Jesus if you think America sucks you must hate the entire world then
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Unlike 2007, prime age labor force peaking won't be an issue, No crash coming!
Next recession will be very normal
No over investment thesis in this cycle
Don't get caught in the everything is a bubble mentality
#Economics