patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

Wow--who is preaching fear now? That response is more typical of CIC or indig-I would have expected better of you Logan.

Logan Mohtashami says

And you see no problem with that chart? Really?

tatupu70 says

-I would have expected better of you Logan.

You're the one who said what happens to their wealth when they fall

Most Americans even my darkest Marxist wanna be friends believe in property ownership... only a few tea leaves hippies even question the notion of rent and mortgages.

Old school Socialism died a long time ago and even great families of the dark Russian empire love the mob life too much to keep any glimmer of hope alive

tatupu70 says

And you see no problem with that chart? Really?

No, I don't, manufacturing sole economy is a dying business and all the countries that held to that thesis are really having issue.

Now, I do give credit to the Chinese for getting the memo on this and trying to move to a service sector jobs

154 Million working and we are still the 2nd biggest manufacturing country in the world

Look at the battle against poverty globalization did

What happened to me

40 years old listening to Beethoven - Moonlight Sonata, drinking mineral water, writing an article about demographic economics and housing, posting charts of poverty decline, fighting Gold bugs on twitter...

Not what I thought in my 20's ;-)

Logan Mohtashami says

Most Americans even my darkest Marxist wanna be friends believe in property ownership... only a few tea leaves hippies even question the notion of rent and mortgages.

Old school Socialism died a long time ago and even great families of the dark Russian empire love the mob life too much to keep any glimmer of hope alive

And consider me among that club too. Last I checked the US had property ownership in the 1960s. That's the US economy I want.

Complete with rent, ownership, capitalism. So, please try again.

Also, with respect to your demographics argument. In the mid sixties, say 1966, looking forward at that time, wasn't the next 15 years going to see a HUGE HUGE increase in the 25 to 54 demgraphic ? The oldest boomers were then about 20. Markets are forward looking. Why did the staock market go into s secular downturm for 16 years.

I'm not saying it's because of the boomers. But if your theory is mostly built on that, it does refute it fairly well. It seems like the real boom was after the economy had finished absorbing the baby boom.

Any you guys and gals like art, I post historical photos timeline to history and historical art work each night

Any favorites you guys or gals have?

Logan Mohtashami says

No, I don't, manufacturing sole economy is a dying business and all the countries that held to that thesis are really having issue.

You can never have an honest discussion, can you? Nobody is talking about a sole manufacturing economy. The US is moving closer to a sole service economy. That is not sustainable.

marcus says

I'm not saying it's because of the boomers. But if your theory is mostly built on that, it does refute fairly well. It seems like the real boom was after the economy had finished absorbing the baby boom

How did you think we great from 2 Trillion to 19 Trillion from 1978 to now... 1980's and 1990's demographics was great that stopped in 2007.

Now the irony of Trump is that 90% of the labor force growth coming in the next 10 years are coming from Hispanics, if we didn't have Hispanics we would look like Japan 1994

tatupu70 says

You can never have an honest discussion, can you?

When I take you out to Dinner, Husband permitting, you and I are going to have a wonderful conversation about this

tatupu70 says

Nobody is talking about a sole manufacturing economy.

2nd biggest manufacturing country in the world, it's roughly 8.61% of the total work force.

Outside a trade war, not sure we want to grow that base, should focus 100% on green energy

Logan Mohtashami says

When I take you out to Dinner, Husband permitting, you and I are going to have a wonderful conversation about this

Your trolling needs some work too.

tatupu70 says

Your trolling needs some work too.

Can a man who post charts and reveals his full name be a troll

You should google my name, don't think a troll could do that

Logan Mohtashami says

If I was just going to base a stock market prediction on this, and considering it to be as huge a factor as you, I think I would have to assume a secular bear market until 2032 or so. Or maybe ending more like 2028.

Logan Mohtashami says

Can a man who post charts and reveals his full name be a troll

You should google my name, don't think a troll could do that

Clearly it's possible as you are showing.

marcus says

I think I would have to assume a secular bear market until 2032 or so

I try not to think that far out.. really my data lines keeps me keen with 3 months only. However, we don't have to worry about a Japan style 1989 top here... As you can imagine I have thousands of Japan charts, best case of demographics economics with Germany. But they are big economies.

tatupu70 says

Clearly it's possible as you are showing.

My lady, if I acting like a Troll, I promise I don't dance like one and you should always dance with a devil in pale moonlight ...

Lighten up, it's Sat night! :-)

Logan Mohtashami says

My lady, if I acting like a Troll, I promise I don't dance like one and you should always dance with a devil in pale moonlight ...

Lighten up, it's Sat night! :-)

Oh, I'm not mad--just amused at your feeble attempts to troll me.

Barry Goldwater advises President Ford on how to beat Ronald Reagan, 40 years ago this month:

tatupu70 says

Oh, I'm not mad--just amused at your feeble attempts to troll me.

I have no idea what that even means, trust me, I have no intention of trolling anything

, If I have trolled you I am very sorry

Logan Mohtashami says

I have no idea what that even means, trust me, I have no intention of trolling anything

, If I have trolled you I am very sorry

Uh-huh. If only you were half as clever as you think you are...

tatupu70 says

Uh-huh. If only you were half as clever as you think you are...

I hear that every night from my wife, she big bleeding liberal :-)

Logan Mohtashami says

40 years old listening to Beethoven - Moonlight Sonata, drinking mineral water, writing an article about demographic economics and housing, posting charts of poverty decline, fighting Gold bugs on twitter..

Sounds like tilting at wind mills?

indigenous says

Sounds like tilting at wind mills?

Ironman says

cycle high auto sales, everyone is so flush with cash,

BMW 3 series used to be a hot car back in 90's. With so many on road, especially 328 lease cars, it's cool factor is significantly diluted. I just assume when I see a 328 that it is some crap lease car. The people who've taken these leases haven't really gotten the memo, that its no longer cool.

People who drive 335 are much more likely to actually have money in bank unlike the average 328 driver. Due to affordable monthly payment and lease deals, there are probably 7 328s to each 335 on the road.

http://www.bimmerforums.com/forum/showthread.php?1700087-335i-sales-stats-in-US

I'd rather use uber than buy a second car, which I do extensively. 2006 Honda civic still hanging strong.

What BMW and Acura was, in terms of coolness factor in the 90's is what a bentley or Lamborghini is today, due to precisely the phenomenon you are discussing.

stuff like this is has to be an example of what prompted people like the late George Carlin to say: "People are fucking dumb! Say what you want about this country. And don't get me wrong I love this place...I love the freedoms we used to have. I love that."

Logan,

Thanks for sharing Barry Goldwater's letter. Barry got it right. You can't change people's mind. People will believe what they want to believe.

Let's get back to economics. Based on the current economic indicators, there's no recession insight, but that can change in the coming quarters. What does your crystal ball say? I think you're a little too bullish while I'm starting to get cautious. I believe we're approaching the last phase of the cycle. Things should remain good until spring/summer 2017, but all bets are off after that IMHO. I will re-evaluate my position then.

With that said, I'm with you that there's no recession this year or even the 1st half of next year, but what about the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018? I expect the next recession to be a mild one so regardless of who's getting elected, that person has a high probability of being a one term president if history is any indication. Let me ask you this: what do you think will be the catalyst for the next recession?

What the fuck is this thread about? Is Logan having a conversation with an imaginary friend? This is the 2nd time in two days that Logan has posted a completely nonsensical thread that has no introduction of what the thread is about, and no hypothesis stated. Instead it contains some semi-random graph, some rambling disconnected statement, and finishes with a challenge to "join Team Logan" or "Team Debt Serfs".

What on earth is it you are rambling about this time, Logan? Please remember, blog readers do not live inside your head. They cannot understand your references to thoughts inside our head that have not been been expressed in writing.

Are you grasping this, Logan? There cannot be an intelligent discussion of any topic unless you introduce the topic, AND create a frame of reference for the topic, AND make a clear statement of the null hypothesis that you want to test. If I was your english teacher, or your debate teacher, or you rhetoric teacher, you would get an F grade (fail).

Are you able to step back, see if you can create a coherent train of thoughts, and put them in writing in a logical manner? I think that even if I WERE a mindreader, I would not WANT to read the discombobulated jumble of thoughts that seem to occupy your brain.

E-man says

but that can change in the coming quarters

When Claims get to 323K

When LEI falls 4-6 months

Fed Fights inflation and raises rates

Then and only then do you have recessionary economic trends, Post WWII I have never been wrong with this model

justme says

What the fuck is this thread about? Is Logan having a conversation with an imaginary friend?

I am actually going to use this for a future articles. What I call E.E.T

Extreme Economic Theory. It's a new thing for me and I have taken data points for the last 12 months on this, hence why I wrote that Economic Crash Article and Saved all the hate email I got.

I have extreme right economic thinkers and now I got some left minded thinkers.

Trump and Bernie supporters.

It's really interesting the mind set of both. When the post recessionary cycle starts, me and some other of my financial friends we are going to make sure that the

New Normal and Secular Stagnation people gets ripped beyond belief

We think there needs to be a change in the economic.

My thesis

Is that the Old linger to long while the young suffer with bad information.

Small Steps ... they can lead to big things, don't bet against America folks, going to look horrible

E-man says

I believe we're approaching the last phase of the cycle

The cycle is old yes and inventory to sales and good metric for that.

However, recessions happen when we have a supply and demand imbalance, a major over investment thesis that creates that type of economic enviroment where demand can't keep pace

Tech and Housing clear and simple cases in the last 2 cycles

It this cycle, not so much

E-man says

but what about the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018?

I am trained not to really go over 3 months on data mining the #NoRecession2016 push my was in response to people who thought 100% that recessions happen in a 7 year time lot with out any real data reads, hence why a lot of my articles this year was to really mock them

Peter Schiffs, Harry Dents, Tom Harmen, MMT and a host of others

I wanted to show the American people that these people are just frauds story tellers, it's been a horrible 8 years for the The 2nd Great Recession Bears.

You should follow me on my facebook pages over 10,000 people there and just let them have it

Most are Gold Bugs, its been funny to watch the last 12 months and some of Harry Dent People

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami

justme says

Are you grasping this, Logan? There cannot be an intelligent discussion of any topic unless you introduce the topi

This wasn't a topic headline like I usually to with an article , this was a bait ;-)

Logan Mohtashami says

When Claims get to 323K

When LEI falls 4-6 months

I think that's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.

E-man says

Let me ask you this: what do you think will be the catalyst for the next recession?

Oil ran it off this cycle and it did nothing

So now, watch commercial real estate + Rising short term rates and we get a over supply in cars and housing. It could be 2019-2022 even as labor force growth is starting to pick up.

I am posting a article today that goes into that Demographic thesis with housing starts

tatupu70 says

That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.

You Forget Fed Fighting inflation

tatupu70 says

I think that's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.

That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.

Also, not a lot people know this stuff, because they don't track data for a living but also the key

Find the over investment thesis in each cycle and they give it a multiplier impact

This is why the recession bears of 2015 and 2016 ... a lot economic professionals blew it because they read the PMI data wrong

Dollar that drove oil down not Demand

I am not kidding when I say I data mine everything, at least 10-20 new economic data charts daily based on all economic data that comes out. Because I work in housing, that is my area.

For example the oil bears said America was going into a recession due to the oil collapse and yet Texas has held up because this isn't the the Texas of the 1980's

What is a interesting thesis, something that I am working on, but don't have enough work done on this done yet.

Super Economic Cycle in America right now

March of 2009 was the start of the expansion and can this cycle break to all time highs in terms of duration

This is my case for the 11 year plus expansion .. Nothing final yet

- Demographic never patch to a Demographic strong patch late in the cycle, this really hasn't happened in recent modern day economics

- No inflation for the Fed to fight, this is key and I went into this in Fed Article recently

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/15/fed-rate-hikes-need-more-inflation/

- We are in the lower band of productivity growth and this could get better in a late cycle period

Tons of other data points there

However, I am been working on this the last year to see if this can carry over, Super Nerdy I know, but I love this stuff ;-)