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What the fuck is this thread about? Is Logan having a conversation with an imaginary friend?
I am actually going to use this for a future articles. What I call E.E.T
Extreme Economic Theory. It's a new thing for me and I have taken data points for the last 12 months on this, hence why I wrote that Economic Crash Article and Saved all the hate email I got.
I have extreme right economic thinkers and now I got some left minded thinkers.
Trump and Bernie supporters.
It's really interesting the mind set of both. When the post recessionary cycle starts, me and some other of my financial friends we are going to make sure that the
New Normal and Secular Stagnation people gets ripped beyond belief
We think there needs to be a change in the economic.
My thesis
Is that the Old linger to long while the young suffer with bad information.
Small Steps ... they can lead to big things, don't bet against America folks, going to look horrible
I believe we're approaching the last phase of the cycle
The cycle is old yes and inventory to sales and good metric for that.
However, recessions happen when we have a supply and demand imbalance, a major over investment thesis that creates that type of economic enviroment where demand can't keep pace
Tech and Housing clear and simple cases in the last 2 cycles
It this cycle, not so much
but what about the 2nd half of 2017 or 2018?
I am trained not to really go over 3 months on data mining the #NoRecession2016 push my was in response to people who thought 100% that recessions happen in a 7 year time lot with out any real data reads, hence why a lot of my articles this year was to really mock them
Peter Schiffs, Harry Dents, Tom Harmen, MMT and a host of others
I wanted to show the American people that these people are just frauds story tellers, it's been a horrible 8 years for the The 2nd Great Recession Bears.
You should follow me on my facebook pages over 10,000 people there and just let them have it
Most are Gold Bugs, its been funny to watch the last 12 months and some of Harry Dent People
Are you grasping this, Logan? There cannot be an intelligent discussion of any topic unless you introduce the topi
This wasn't a topic headline like I usually to with an article , this was a bait ;-)
When Claims get to 323K
When LEI falls 4-6 months
I think that's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.
That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.
Let me ask you this: what do you think will be the catalyst for the next recession?
Oil ran it off this cycle and it did nothing
So now, watch commercial real estate + Rising short term rates and we get a over supply in cars and housing. It could be 2019-2022 even as labor force growth is starting to pick up.
I am posting a article today that goes into that Demographic thesis with housing starts
That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.
You Forget Fed Fighting inflation
I think that's called closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.
That's not a predictive model--that's a model that acknowledges what has already happened.
Also, not a lot people know this stuff, because they don't track data for a living but also the key
Find the over investment thesis in each cycle and they give it a multiplier impact
This is why the recession bears of 2015 and 2016 ... a lot economic professionals blew it because they read the PMI data wrong
Dollar that drove oil down not Demand
I am not kidding when I say I data mine everything, at least 10-20 new economic data charts daily based on all economic data that comes out. Because I work in housing, that is my area.
For example the oil bears said America was going into a recession due to the oil collapse and yet Texas has held up because this isn't the the Texas of the 1980's
What is a interesting thesis, something that I am working on, but don't have enough work done on this done yet.
Super Economic Cycle in America right now
March of 2009 was the start of the expansion and can this cycle break to all time highs in terms of duration
This is my case for the 11 year plus expansion .. Nothing final yet
- Demographic never patch to a Demographic strong patch late in the cycle, this really hasn't happened in recent modern day economics
- No inflation for the Fed to fight, this is key and I went into this in Fed Article recently
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/15/fed-rate-hikes-need-more-inflation/
- We are in the lower band of productivity growth and this could get better in a late cycle period
Tons of other data points there
However, I am been working on this the last year to see if this can carry over, Super Nerdy I know, but I love this stuff ;-)
So you are a disciple of Harry Dent?
No comment on Ironman's comment?
The problem is, you pick and choose what data you want to fit your narrative or tweak what you present to fit your narrative
Most of the data are simply economic data report charted.
Also, Have I been wrong on the U.S. economic story? When everyone was calling for recession in 2009 -2016.. Stayed the course in my 2% economy and if you at my job creation number per each year they have been more right than anyone
Plus on record with a 2015 and 2016 10 year call of 1.60% lower band when everyone for years was calling for 3% GDP and 4% 10 year
So you are a disciple of Harry Dent?
He has circus talked the Demographic story
He is calling for 40%-67% declines in home price and if you look at his chart work it's really funny, he actually has a key level of 2006 dow theory and this is why he always has Dow 6,000 has to breaking point to go lower
That's not how it works
He has had the worst economic cycle I have ever seen 5 Great Recession 2 calls in 8 years
Jim Rodgers mr. Commodity boom has joined the mix and all he said
We have to have a recession we have one every 5-7 years
WTF
These people aren't economist they're $$$ story tellers
in a few minutes I am going to post a demographic housing article you can at least see why I believe in a few years housing = economic output will look a lot better than this cycle in terms of economic growth.. but also showing respect that we have built a lot homes in the last 5 decades
Obviously Bill McBride ( Calculated Risk) and I are the big American Economic Bulls
Be mindful, come the next decade both the left and right are going to be massively wrong about America so we want to show you now why
#FutureIsBright so much, I have to wear shades
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2015/12/the-futures-so-bright.html
"In 1979, using this criterion, the average middle class household brought in $61,542 annually. By 2011, the last year of EPI's study, middle-class household income had only increased to $72,036, or just 17% overall. By comparison, the annual household income of the top 1% of American households rose by almost 150% over that same timespan to more than $1.5 million. The EPI estimates that if middle-class household incomes had kept pace with the top 1% between 1979 and 2011, they would have had an average annual income of $156,318 in 2011."
There's no problem here! 'Merika is the best! U. S. A. U. S. A.!!!!!!!!!!!!
There's no problem here! 'Merika is the best! U. S. A. U. S. A.!!!!!!!!!!!!
Logan... you're a legend in your own lunchtime.
2015 Dollars college Grads make 48K-54K adjust it to inflammation grow on wages it makes you entire thesis go to hell
How is possible that people are buying homes, cars when everyone is supposed to be a high school drop out equivalent earnings power
Wait.. I forget
Real Median Household Income is a function of a) Real Median Weekly Earnings and b) the Participation Rate
Please I beg you Anti American cry babies
Keep on talking your non sense when post recession recovery happens and there is no Deflationary massive down turn then everyone will know
Why you guys hide behind those fakes names ...
Utter non sense what you're saying
Americans aren't high school drop outs with drug problems, that group needs massive federal intervention but quit putting all of us in that group
Rookies ....no different than Gold Bugs
Either the world is going to end due to inflation or deflation
Please I am keeping this thread for the next cycle and personally going to write an article add this group to the new normal thesis group that has already loss due to birth rates going positive
Keep On talking
That's the whole point of this thread ..... Live it up! #Timestamp
By all means.... cry away
Tell me again how Horrible the American Economy is .. Please don't let me stop you!
I know
It's called ZeroHedge Join your polar opposites on this site and join the comment section on how bad America is and how good the Russian economy looks like
Household income is a known canard as the divorce rate in the 70s had more to do with the household income than anything else. The corollary would also be true as many well to do households have more than one income per household.
This:
One major conclusion of their research is that the family income of children whose parents divorce and remain divorced for at least six years falls by 40 to 45 percent. Food consumption is also reduced by 17 percent. Families respond to the absence of a second parent in a variety of ways that help mitigate some of the costs, the authors note. In the case of children born to single parents who subsequently marry and remain married for at least six years, post-tax family income increases 50 percent and pre-tax income rises 57 percent. But there is no related increase in food consumption. This suggests that children's access to essentials, such as food, may be somewhat better protected than is assumed by focusing on income changes alone.
These different types of measures can be helpful for policymakers considering the skyrocketing number of single-parent families in the United States in the past 50 years. Between 1960 and 1995, the number of children living apart from one of their parents increased from 12 percent to almost 40 percent, the rate of divorce increased by more than 200 percent, and the fraction of children born out of wedlock rose from about 5 percent to more than 30 percent. Half of all American children today are expected to spend part of their childhood in a family headed by a mother who is divorced, separated, unwed, or widowed.
From this:
How dare anyone suggest there is anything wrong in the best country in the world!!??!!
Heresy!
Pinkos!
Cry babies!
Just wait until the poor 20 year olds become poor 25 year olds! 5% GDP growth here we come.
How dare anyone suggest there is anything wrong in the best country in the world!!??!!
Let's see how many times do I have repeat this... So I will do it one more time #timestamp
Focus on this group
- High School Drop outs
- Non college educated Americans
- Non Trade Show Skill Americans
- Drug Users
- Criminal Active
- Those with a criminal record outside of jail
This group needs massive amounts of federal intervention because they're doing horrible and they need emergency help
The rest don't need much compared to the group as a the wealthiest country in the world with the biggest economy, biggest military, 100 Trillion dollars plus of wealth, 154 Million working people..
We can afford to give this group above more attention that the middle class. Our middle class is fine.
You can't help the poor if everyone is poor outside the 1%
I would also include animals being a big animal person here. :-)
5% GDP growth here we come.
Very difficult for any mature country to have 5% GDP in a consistent fashion maybe for a short term Jolt with massive stimulus but that can't last forever.
On a different note I so agreed with Krugman on his critiques of Freedman plan on Sanders 5% GDP economic growth
A nice quiet war in Liberal land between economic mind set... MMT hates Paul Krugman, you should hear the things they say about Clinton's Krugman, Obama now
Fun to watch them squabble on the net
Logan - did you have a triple shot of espresso this morning?
I don't eat sugar during the week but on the Weekend it's Carb Party so yes I had a donut which amounts to 100 X velocity of espresso
I don't eat sugar during the week but on the Weekend it's Carb Party so yes I had a donuts which amounts to 100 X velocity of espresso
I'm in a similar situation. On the weekends, I get my old fashioned glazed donut with a vanilla latte from Coffee Bean. Culinary orgasm.
We can afford to give this group above more attention that the middle class. Our middle class is fine.
You mean except for the face that they are fading away to oblivion? Pretty soon they will be an endangered species.
glazed donut
What I had today, they're so bad for you but it is so good!
I have been training for a year now, so the weekends are fun for me and the weekdays are a piece of cake now
Here is one idea
Federal funded programs to boost productive training in jails. Then post Jail, Federal funding program to train or make sure post Jail people can work.
No Man Or Women Left Behind thesis.
This is where a MMT thesis can be useful.
Tons of ideas but something in that nature to help people who need help. A big supporter of Families Forward as well. Stuff like that done on a massive level from the Federal side of the equation not the state.
Yes because clearly only felons are having a hard time in this economy.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/10/25/1-in-2-working-americans-make-less-than-30000-a-year
/
Notice the ratio getting smaller and smaller? That's inequality again.
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I want names and everyone to pick their side and I want to save this thread for when the next decade comes I want us all to remember those who bet against this country
#Economics
The days of running your false economic theories on this site are over
Pick a side and Let this war begin because the recession timeline isn't that far off ... We will see how your 1929 thesis holds up