patrick.net

1.62% 10 year yield

10 basis point reversal from the lows of yesterday

Yield slippage outer band thesis has worked perfectly in this cycle at key technical points

This multi year 1.60% has now held up through every world mama drama story we have seen

Work off this thesis and know that only the Spanish default fears was the only economic story that was able to push yields lower than this

4 basis point reversal on 10's ... Once again 1.60 has held 💪🏾💪🏾

Que paso

1.46% Flight from Europe.

errc says

Que paso

Heraclitusstudent says

1.46% Flight from Europe.

If we can get a close under 1.43%... this will break the Spanish Default Fear Trade lows on 2012.

Then, we are in uncharted areas in 10's

The only print we had intr day was 1.35% during 2012

Both 2012 and 2016 getting to these levels, both caused by Euro Zone issues, this time... we have massive negative yields in play unlike 2012

Germany's 15 year is negative... I can't express how nutty that is

The most interesting fact now... We have rising service inflation at 3.2% and ECI wage inflation at 3.5% and Wage inflation for Job switchers at 4%

It doesn't matter, negative yield story and the deflationary factors from Europe and Japan... Makes our yields too juicy to resit

Logan Mohtashami says

Makes our yields too juicy to resit

You will doing a lot of refis.

Together with a flood of oil and commodities bust. Not a safe haven.

Strategist says

You will doing a lot of refis.

Not as much as you think, I was explaining to CNBC today with charts that to see a 2012 Refi Boom again 10's need to be 0.87%- 1.08%

Always a supply of refinance people but to get a boom you need lower yields

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

You will doing a lot of refis.

Not as much as you think, I was explaining to CNBC today with charts that to see a 2012 Refi Boom again 10's need to be 0.87%- 1.08%

Always a supply of refinance people but to get a boom you need lower yields

Maybe not a boom, but a surge, definitely.
Home purchases will boom like crazy, just wait and see.

Strategist says

Home purchases will boom like crazy, just wait and see.

No on that either, seasonality kicked already, it helps those who are in contract now... but the low rate velocity has been totally debunked in this cycle

Even 2016 purchase application data is only back to 1998 levels where rates were 4% plus higher

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Home purchases will boom like crazy, just wait and see.

No on that either, seasonality kicked already, it helps those who are in contract now... but the low rate velocity has been totally debunked in this cycle

Even 2016 purchase application data is only back to 1998 levels where rates were 4% plus higher

Lets make a sportsman's bet.
I say home sales will hit multi year highs for the US and OC. - 2016
Home prices will hit a double digit increase in OC - 2016

Strategist says

I say home sales will hit multi year highs for the US and OC. - 2016

That isn't saying much considering how low sales are at.. all you need is a 5.30 total sale beat for existing homes and over 500K in new homes

Heats month in terms of total volume for applications come in 2nd week of Jan - 1st week of May, after that seasonality kicks in

You will see a boost in refinance application but.. housing is a process, no 1 week push for people to buy a home that were never looking to buy...

Hence why the heat months are the most important for total home sales, that was positive this year up 25% when it mattered

Logan Mohtashami says

That isn't saying much considering how low sales are at.. all you need is a 5.30 total sale beat for existing homes and over 500K in new homes

I'll be thrilled with 3.5

Strategist says

I'll be thrilled with 3.5

I am still waiting for the MBA index to break 300 on the 4 week moving average, then we can get back to 1999 demand

Wow! Yes with May's 0.6% growth in ECI and 0.2% growth in CPI I'm sure the Fed will raise rates any day now. It was a narrow miss last time, so now with the Brexit, money fleeing into bonds/treasuries and even gold, it looks like we will need to cool this bad boy down. (end sarcasm)

Economic engine for the recovery has been stuck in idle, low flat growth, and the nationalist populist barbarians haven't gotten to participate in the recovery. They are pissed off, and at the gates.

Logan, please post them some of your graphs, and make them understand. They are about to eat my 401K and much much more.

Rew says

Yes with May's 0.6% growth in ECI

Did you just use ECI... eekkksss..... So he has called 2 recession back in 2011 and in 2015 and his own index went against him

Here is a common theme for Americans recession

World economic problems will eventual hit the U.S. shores

Just a penny for this bad thesis since 2011...

It is very true, the major world economies are having many issues, France, Germany, Japan, China, Brazil... etc etc and now the U.K.

We are simply too big and to strong of an economy to have an imported recession...

The world is relying on us to dig them out of a recession.

Strategist says

The world is relying on us to dig them out of a recession.

We are always playing Atlas

So embarrassing ... Europe... since 2011.. one drama to another .... and now their demographics are going to get bad... France declares a Economic State of Emergency and are having riots due to labor laws

F*_+@#)$# pathetic ....

Logan Mohtashami says

We are simply too big and to strong of an economy to have an imported recession...

Yes we have our own recessions every 6-10 years. Last one was 8 years ago.
Maybe we can't be pulled into someone else's ditch but we can be nudged into our own?

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

Heraclitusstudent says

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

Which is created by a supply & demand imbalance ( over investment) thesis ... which we really don't have in this cycle outside of oil, which we handled relatively well

Also, mature economies have a lot general term infrastructure built out, so with a growing labor force, you obviously need more building, but America, Japan, and Europe are old but America does have the labor force growth advantage due to immigration build up over decades

Heraclitusstudent says

Yes we have our own recessions every 6-10 years. Last one was 8 years ago.

Maybe we can't be pulled into someone else's ditch but we can be nudged into our own?

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

We haven't fully recovered from the last recession, and now the damn Brexit crap bits us in the ass.

Then there is Japan!

Logan, tell me straight up why you think global bond yields have declined to zero in a long term trend starting around 30 years ago.

--------------

How about starting 50 years ago. What were the long term effects of the very high rates that preceded the 30 ( hell now almost 40) years of decline?

Rates, yields and inflation move hand in hand and you can add the dollar to this as well

YoY wage growth as well

One more item, as I noted in the article, It's not a domestic issue in terms of the events that brings down yields to these levels

Also, however, the taper spike was a over crowded trade that way haywire on the technical levels and the 10 year really shouldn't have be at 3.04%

If the 40 year goes negative, throwing a party

Buy bonds they only ever go up in price

#storyofmylife

Gentlemen this is America... the world can't compete with us... since 2011 we have show we are kicking the worlds ass and .... Oh Lord.. just wait

Demographics is a plus for us and Europe, China and Japan and going to Bigger elderly stage !

As always this is all a set up for the next decade.. I am just letting everyone know why they're wrong about America now..

So, saying I told you so, just won't cut it in the next cycle

#USA

The article itself was a smack down against the world vs U.S.A.

Since 2011 we have multiple European Crisis events, Japan has had issues and China has slowed down

But 2016

Retail sales cycle highs, home sales cycle highs and car sales over 17,000,000

We are the best in the world!

Even with a oil and commodity crash .. Nothing.. Unemployment claims never got over 300K

Marvel at what we have done as a country while the world has had many issues

Either we've had disinflation for 35 years, or rates dont track inflation. Rates have been falling for 35 years, this is an indisputable fact. So do yous think rates have bottomed?

My 2007 thesis , that rates had to continue lower is still in tact. Now, rates around the world are either zero or even negative, and i see no mechanism to buck this trend

you keep on adding other countries to this discussion

--------

This is a global economy. Look at your thread title

errc says

Either we've had disinflation for 35 years, or rates dont track inflation. Rates have been falling for 35 years, this is an indisputable fact. So do yous think rates have bottomed?

My 2007 thesis , that rates had to continue lower is still in tact. Now, rates around the world are either zero or even negative, and i see no mechanism to buck this trend

A full economic rebound will buck the trend.