patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

We are simply too big and to strong of an economy to have an imported recession...

Yes we have our own recessions every 6-10 years. Last one was 8 years ago.
Maybe we can't be pulled into someone else's ditch but we can be nudged into our own?

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

Heraclitusstudent says

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

Which is created by a supply & demand imbalance ( over investment) thesis ... which we really don't have in this cycle outside of oil, which we handled relatively well

Also, mature economies have a lot general term infrastructure built out, so with a growing labor force, you obviously need more building, but America, Japan, and Europe are old but America does have the labor force growth advantage due to immigration build up over decades

Heraclitusstudent says

Yes we have our own recessions every 6-10 years. Last one was 8 years ago.

Maybe we can't be pulled into someone else's ditch but we can be nudged into our own?

You know, butterflies creating hurricanes and all that.

We haven't fully recovered from the last recession, and now the damn Brexit crap bits us in the ass.

Then there is Japan!

Logan, tell me straight up why you think global bond yields have declined to zero in a long term trend starting around 30 years ago.

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How about starting 50 years ago. What were the long term effects of the very high rates that preceded the 30 ( hell now almost 40) years of decline?

Rates, yields and inflation move hand in hand and you can add the dollar to this as well

YoY wage growth as well

One more item, as I noted in the article, It's not a domestic issue in terms of the events that brings down yields to these levels

Also, however, the taper spike was a over crowded trade that way haywire on the technical levels and the 10 year really shouldn't have be at 3.04%

If the 40 year goes negative, throwing a party

Buy bonds they only ever go up in price

#storyofmylife

Gentlemen this is America... the world can't compete with us... since 2011 we have show we are kicking the worlds ass and .... Oh Lord.. just wait

Demographics is a plus for us and Europe, China and Japan and going to Bigger elderly stage !

As always this is all a set up for the next decade.. I am just letting everyone know why they're wrong about America now..

So, saying I told you so, just won't cut it in the next cycle

#USA

The article itself was a smack down against the world vs U.S.A.

Since 2011 we have multiple European Crisis events, Japan has had issues and China has slowed down

But 2016

Retail sales cycle highs, home sales cycle highs and car sales over 17,000,000

We are the best in the world!

Even with a oil and commodity crash .. Nothing.. Unemployment claims never got over 300K

Marvel at what we have done as a country while the world has had many issues

Either we've had disinflation for 35 years, or rates dont track inflation. Rates have been falling for 35 years, this is an indisputable fact. So do yous think rates have bottomed?

My 2007 thesis , that rates had to continue lower is still in tact. Now, rates around the world are either zero or even negative, and i see no mechanism to buck this trend

you keep on adding other countries to this discussion

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This is a global economy. Look at your thread title

errc says

Either we've had disinflation for 35 years, or rates dont track inflation. Rates have been falling for 35 years, this is an indisputable fact. So do yous think rates have bottomed?

My 2007 thesis , that rates had to continue lower is still in tact. Now, rates around the world are either zero or even negative, and i see no mechanism to buck this trend

A full economic rebound will buck the trend.

Total growth and YoY growth or declines 2 different things

errc says

Look at your thread title

and the U.S. economy

Guys we won... we kicked and are kicking everyone's @$$ for a reason

I see. The New-New New Economy

Where the mountainous pile of debts begins a new phase of being rolled over at ever greater costs

I get it that this a slightly tilted liberal economic view you guys have

Your sentence structure are very similar to my facebook MMT friends

Who have also been wrong about America

I am giving you guys a different non ideological take on economics

Don't bet against America going forward... other countries to talk bad about... the best is coming!

What happens next?

errc says

What happens next?

Enjoy a booming stock market, and real estate prices.

errc says

What happens next?

We will have a recession at some point, but we will also have better demographics, unlike 2007 where it peaked

Prime age labor force growth was good in 1980's and 1990's all this obsession over who was president is crazy, demographics run the show

get it that this a slightly tilted liberal economic view you guys have

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Thats funny. Its not every day that I'm accused of not seeing things for how they are, because of my liberal bias.

Probably because nothing could be further from the truth. All i see is numbers and math, theres no political bent clouding my judgement or assessment abilities

errc says

Thats funny. Its not every day that I'm accused of not seeing things for how they are, because of my liberal bias

Liberal people = deflationary spiral

Conservative people = inflationary spiral

I am generalizing a bit

But its' the MMT view vs the Gold Bug view

I 100% believe both have been terribly wrong and don't understand demographic economics

My point is to only show why... why have the economic bears been wrong about America and why has all the economic drama happened outside the U.S. since 2011.. X out the fiscal bluff nonsense here

On another note

Bond market being flat today is amazing action! on U.S. 10 year

and on currencies .. anyone here taking a vacation in the next 2 months?

Going to Mexico and staying at the 4 seasons in Punta Mita and they're pushing currency exchange on their website! Awesome

http://www.fourseasons.com/puntamita/

Olympic greetings!

Call CalTrans!

Logan Mohtashami says

Global Yields Are Falling!

marcus says

Logan argues we will grow our way out or it.

As you all know I am a big demographic person

We had good demographics in 1980's and 1990's

Overall I believe mature countries are limited by growth anyway but the U.S. is going to have a great advantage in the next cycle as we are demographic light 2008-2019

But 2020-2024 we will have better prime age labor force growth numbers

Strategist says

QE will bail us out.

No QE... if something is to be done it's Fiscal not something the FED can do... velocity will be limited but it's a much better transmission (Fiscal) than anything the Fed can do

Not a Big QE fan here

Labor is becoming capital which has never happened before so it's not surprising that no one understands where this is going.

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On its face, one would see this as a good thing, kinda. In our present system where you have a massive government with its grubby fingers on everything, not so much. Especially when the government takes its power primarily through (taxing/regulating) labor, and uses it to help prop up capital, all the while being the force that allows for private control of land. One would think that the negative effects could be smoothed over, if the government derived its power/revenue via Land Taxes, rather than Labor taxes. I'm reminded of my learnings here on patnet of Henry George and classical economics. Seems as applicable to todays problrms as it did over a century ago

On June 29, the #GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in Q2 2016 is 2.7% https://goo.gl/nrTp86

#USA .... get on board !!! ;-)

PCE growth is tracking over 4% in Q2

The current deflationary (or low inflation) environment to some extent is a chicken game between countries trying to force others to spend more. China in particular is still saving a huge amount and must spend more if things are to get better. What we see is the developed countries, Europe in particular, are going on strike and telling the Chinese: "we stop spending until YOU do."

Strawman. I said nothing about inflation. I was talking about savings. We don't need inflation for growth to happen, we just need people to spend the money they have so that money circulates.

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Me thinks that flow chart is busted. The paycheck economy is tapped. They don't have savings to keep this all going.

errc says

Me thinks that flow chart is busted. The paycheck economy is tapped. They don't have savings to keep this all going.

errc says

The paycheck economy is tapped. They don't have savings to keep this all going.

Who doesn't have the savings? The richest boomers are loaded for savings precisely set aside to spend during their old age.

Logan Mohtashami says

You know, in the domain of AI, statistics are less and less regarded as a good angle to approach intelligence.
Why?
For the exact reason your chart illustrate: an average is not a good generalization. You can always calculate an average and you will find one. But this doesn't tell you whether this average is actually the center of a cluster or whether this is just a random point between clusters.