patrick.net

Level = 111.2, June 3, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.9, June 6, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.0, June 7, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.4, June 8, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.3, June 9, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.5, June 10, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.7, June 13, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.1, June 15, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.0, June 17, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/dp.aspx

Does anyone think there is an increase in risk for deflation?

I have been purchasing properties mostly at 80%LTV. Not overly concerned, but I would hate to carry debt in a deflation environment. All my properties are being rented out with positive yield and I don't really believe rental rates will go down, maybe stay flat, but they have been going up and I think they will continue to go up.

Did some research at the Atlanta Fed website (graph above) and suddenly there is a 12-13% deflation probability.

Hi CC,
I don't know!
Usually one uses the past as important input for supposing the future ..., BUT the massive market manipulation since early 2009 evident in the Real Dow chart suggests 'anything is possible', IMO.
My thinking is safety first, trust not. Remember, this is kept unseen:

Level = 110.8, June 20, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 110.6, June 22, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.1, June 23, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

It has never been more clear that the cost of living has skyrocketed, regardless of how we currently measure "inflation"

Level = 108.3, June 24, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000
Price fell 3.4% today.

Level = 106.6, June 27, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.5, June 30, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.7, July 1, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.0, July 5, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 111.4, July 6, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 112.9, July 8, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 113.3, July 11, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.2, July 13, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 115.1, July 14, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.9, July 15, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.9, July 18, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 115.3, July 20, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.8, July 21, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Patrick, any chance we can allow the graphs/images to be a little bigger... Too often you can't even make out the font.

I am ttsmyf. Is the chart at the beginning of this too small??
http://patrick.net/Here+is+the+Long-Term+Dow%2C+Inflation-Adjusted%2C+Up+to+Date
You could get it larger by linking to
Elaboration here:

Level = 115.2, July 22, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.7, July 25, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.5, July 27, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.4, July 28, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.3, July 29, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 113.5, August 2, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 113.8, August 4, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 115.0, August 5, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000

Level = 114.9, August 8, 2016
Base = 100.0 = monthly average of January 2000