patrick.net

Trump approaching statistical tie in Michigan:

Obama won Michigan by almost 10%.

http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-connecticut-in-play-for-trump-20160717-story.html

Trump On The Ticket Could Mean Connecticut Is In Play

"I think a lot of people are thinking it's going to be a blowout with Hillary in a blue state like this,'' Rose said. "I am not as absolutely as confident in that conclusion as some others are. The demographics and the party distribution are lined up against Trump, but the independent vote in Connecticut could be decisive. We are talking about 41 percent of the registered voters, and Trump could tap into that. He will do well among Republicans, and he will do well among independents. That could result in Connecticut being in play.''

State Rep. John Frey, a Republican National Committee member and Cleveland convention delegate, said Connecticut is "definitely'' in play based on his conversations with voters around the state.

"I was getting tires at Town Fair Tire in Danbury,'' said Frey, a Ridgefield resident. "There was an African American guy working there, and he was all excited about Trump. I was in The Owl Shop in New Haven a month ago, talking to three young people in there. Two of them are living with their parents, and one had four part-time jobs. They're saddled with heavy student loans. They want to try something new, and that's what Trump represents.''

http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/article/739056/212

Donald Trump may be winning converts from an unlikely source — Democrats — a new unpublished poll shows.

What's more, according to the poll, Trump is tied with Hillary — and in fact, the Republican candidate is within striking distance in several historically Democratic states.

Sources I interviewed said the poll was conducted by the Harper Polling Firm for the U.S. Senate campaign of GOP State Rep. Dan Carter.

The as-yet published poll shows Trump tied with Clinton — each with 43 percent — in heavily Democratic Connecticut.

Trump now predicted to win parts of Maine (which splits it's electoral votes).
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/18/polls-trump-electoral-edge-today/

So if Clinton maintains a slight lead in national polls due to lopsided liberal states, Trump actually would have a pretty comfortable election today.

Johnson getting 5%, hahahahaha. Some of these polls are complete BS.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/288118-manafort-trump-campaign-expanding-number-of-battleground

Trump aide: Close to 20 states in play

"The target list is actually expanding, the 12 battleground states are probably closer to 20 now," Paul Manafort said at a Bloomberg Politics breakfast in Cleveland, according to Bloomberg News.
He named Oregon, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia as states that are "in play."

In the 2012 election, President Obama won all of those states.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Sunday he thinks Trump will "expand the map," adding he thinks the party will be able to "flip" a few states to win.

I think it's very telling that for the last 3 months the biggest news story in the world was "Who will Donald Trump pick as his running mate?"

Then the second biggest under reported story is, nobody gives a crap about Hillary's running mate nor the lack of any publicity on her running mate selection.
Though I did find this obscure article on HIllary's top 5 pick.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-clinton-vp-prospects-20160714-snap-htmlstory.html

The lack of interest in Hillary's VP pick is demostrative of the people have already spoken.

Tenpoundbass says

Then the second biggest under reported story is, nobody gives a crap about Hillary's running mate nor the lack of any publicity on her running mate selection.

Though I did find this obscure article on HIllary's top 5 pick.

That's a good point. Nobody gives a shit about Hillary's running mate, which is illustrative of the large numbers that won't be bothered to vote for her.

Tenpoundbass says

I think it's very telling that for the last 3 months the biggest news story in the world was "Who will Donald Trump pick as his running mate?"

While it's pretty funny that you think that was the biggest news story of the last 3 months, the reason is more because his campaign is such a clown show that people were curious who would actually agree to be his VP. And the off chance that he'd pick someone completely nuts just to get more publicity.

Never in my life have I seen an election where people just don't want you to vote for your guy.
They aren't demanding you vote for their guy(which has been the case in the past).
They just want to stop you from going to the polls, rallying and supporting your candidate.

This is some pretty chickenshit weak stuff here. Hilary's rallies are Whiter than the Brady Bunch.

Hillary will be in jail by November mock my words.

Tenpoundbass says

mock my words.

He usually does.

I'm going to wait until a few days after the RNC to post an accurate update of Trump versus Clinton polling averages in this thread.

It's not going to be pretty.

www.youtube.com/embed/7ZSZsVM_cBo

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2016/07/17/pollster-trump-will-win-because-majority-of-americans-seek-change-from-obama/

Pollster: Trump Will Win Because Majority of Americans Seek Change From Obama

She's still down 1.5% from just a few days and several polls ago.

Clearing out Bernie has actually made her lose points rather than gain them.

I LOL'd at one poll having Johnson at 17%.

thunderlips11 says

Johnson getting 5%, hahahahaha.

Anything more than 3% is prob ridiculous; Still not convinced that trump will pull it out against hillary but as high as 17% for Johnson is really silly

http://rsbn.tv/2016-republican-national-convention-live-stream/

Mrs. Trump now.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/amp/poll-clinton-trump-now-tied-gop-convention-kicks-n611936

NBC Poll:
The contest is also competitive in a four-way general election scenario between Clinton (39 percent), Trump (40 percent), Libertarian Gary Johnson (10 percent) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein (5 percent). These results are according to the latest from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll conducted online from July 11 through July 17, 2016 among 9,353 adults who say they are registered to vote.

www.youtube.com/embed/Qvc1t-g6JqA

Looks like he's being introduced at WrestleMania.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/18/poll-trump-leads-clinton-by-11-points-with-independents/
Poll: Trump Leads Clinton by 11 Points with Independents

Donald Trump is leading presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 11 points with Independents, 38 percent to 27 percent, according to a new Morning Consult poll.

zzyzzx says

Poll: Trump Leads Clinton by 11 Points with Independents

Translation: THe ugly Fox news, Talk Radio, etc, moronic nature of right wing media in the past 20 years has caused many more republicans to refer to themselves as independents than democrats.

It would be interesting to know how Trump is doing among true independents That is people that never considered themselves D or R and who have voted for a lot of people on both sides.

My guess is at least 11% in the other direction.

What kind of person does it take to not see unacceptable risk with Trump as President ? MAybe some people don't realize that terrible things can happen. And if they do, he would be the President ? How can you not get this ? How would he handle a worse financial crisis than 2008 ? Or being on the brink of WW3. You really feel that you can trust that guy ? What are you people thinking ?

Consider Hillary's closest confidant, a rhode scholar that has been President before.

I mean we all have an intuition about these things. How does yours tell you Trump is the answer ?

tatupu70 says

Looks like he's being introduced at WrestleMania.

Trumps been to Wrestle Mania a few times. He wins at that too....

www.youtube.com/embed/5NsrwH9I9vE

And then there was the time he fired Dan

www.youtube.com/embed/nYcfsLfwQcM

It's now a tie in New Hampshire:
https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_summer_presrace072116.pdf

37% for both Trump and Hillary.

http://regated.com/2016/07/clinton-campaign-freaking-donald-trump-leads-polls/

CLINTON CAMPAIGN FREAKING OUT AS DONALD TRUMP LEADS IN THE POLLS

In a recent poll done by OANN/Gravis where they asked 40% Dems, 33% Republicans and 27% Independents who they would vote for, Donald Trump won with flying colors. Keep in mind these poll numbers came out before the DNC email leaks, where they were exposed for collusion with the media, lies and deception. Once new polls come out, there will be an even more drastic difference in people not wanting to vote for Hillary Clinton and i’m sure a lot jumping on to the Trump train.

The truth is that is socially unacceptable to say you are a Trump supporter with fear of losing jobs, friends and family many people say they will vote Democrat. Although, it’s possible that on election day, Trump could end up with upwards of 57% of the popular vote.

Donald Trump is known for saying “I haven’t even started on her yet” and this is very true. Once Donald Trump faces Hillary Clinton in a one on one debate in September.. things will change drastically. Now that the DNC email leak is making the rounds of the main stream circuit, it’s obvious that there will be another major drop in Clinton’s numbers in the polls.

Clinton campaign is most definitely freaking out at this point, in an attempt to overshadow Clinton’s misuse of emails they choose Tim Kaine as VP who is supposedly strong on foreign affairs. Sanders supporters who Hillary needs to win this election are very skeptical of Kaine and his support for NAFTA, Trans-Pacific Partnership and his recent move for regulations on small sized banks.

Notice something about the last few polls?

The bigger the sample size, the better Trump does. Likely Voters - reliable voters - favor Trump.

The more Voters see of her, the less they like her.

-------------

Can she hide out in a discreet safe zone for a couple months? That's her only hope.

That and relying on the populace being gullible enough to eat up all the anti-Trump propaganda

http://harlanhill.com/poll-alert-trump-takes-commanding-lead-in-la-timesusc-poll/

Trump Takes Commanding Lead in LA Times/USC Poll

Donald Trump has taken a commanding lead over Hillary Clinton in the latest LA Times/USC Poll. The poll shows Trump leading with 45.1% to Hillary’s 41.7%.

Going into the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump had a very slim lead against Hillary Clinton in the same poll. It’s now clear that the Convention and the most recent WikiLeaks/DNC email scandal is helping Trump.

I'm waiting a few days to see where it settles. I'm not going to cherry pick right now (like you guys). But real politics still has the average of all the polls with Hillary ahead. This is good, but considering what a clown Trump is I'm not happy to see him even close.

What a basket case this country is.

I know you guys equate intelligence and good analysis with liberal bias, but this is the one to watch.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

You should be celebrating that he (or they) has it down to only 58.3% chance that Hillary wins, and the dust hasn't settled from the RNC yet. These are probabilities, not poll numbers. A 58.3% probability of winning reflects a spread of only a couple points in the average polls.

If and when they have Trump ahead, you can imagine me being very disturbed.

Found an infographic that's going to get Hillary elected didjya?
Well you hang on to that.

AS expected. Okay don't listen to me. Go back to your cherry picking. We both know Trumps absolute peak may be happening right now on the heels of the RNC. So you should find the best polls you can right now and savor them, you know, just in case it's all down hill from here.

Chuck Norris endorses Trump.

http://mobile.wnd.com/2016/07/the-people-have-spoken/

Booger says

Chuck Norris endorses Trump.

http://mobile.wnd.com/2016/07/the-people-have-spoken/

Trump should have picked Norris as VP.

Trump up 9 in New Hampshire:
https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/757917305183596544

Trump 48
Clinton 39

Almost another full point!