patrick.net

I'm still fascinated by the coincidence of Roger AIlles stepping down at the same time that TRump's nomination became official. Someone's head had to roll.

That chart is more Liberal Propaganda Bullshit! Trump has a 2 to 7 point lead over Hillary, your chart shows HIllary over 50, That's a LIE!
shows Hitlery with a 5 or 7 point lead over Trump another lie.

Even Hillary is using the phrase now:

Tenpoundbass says

That chart is more Liberal Propaganda Bullshit! Trump has a 2 to 7 point lead over Hillary, your chart shows HIllary over 50, That's a LIE!

shows Hitlery with a 5 or 7 point lead over Trump another lie.

That chart is from Nate SIlver's 538, probably the best go to site for this kind of analysis.

You might want to consider the difference between probability (that why the title uses the word "odds.") versus polls. Hillary having a 56% percent chance of winning is actually a very small lead. Not long ago she was considered by SIlver, and everyone betting actual money a 4:1 favorite, in other words about 80% likely to win. She might be back to that next week. Stay tuned.

Tenpoundbass says

Trump has a 2 to 7 point lead over Hillary

Maybe before the DNC. You go ahead and hang on to that old data as long as you can. Here, I'll show you a lagging graphic from REal CLear Politics. This one lags a lot because its averaging in polls from several days ago.

Again. That's a lagging graph and hasn't hardly begun to show the DNC bounce.

I know who it's from it's from this Idiot

http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/

1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart

2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll

4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom

5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination

6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan

His analysis has always been about probability, something you don't understand.

If an analysis indicates something has a 60% chance of happening, and then the opposite (40% chance of happening) happens, it doesn't make the guy an idiot. But I'm not going to bother explaining that to you. Most readers that care, are very capable of understanding this.

WAnt to explode your mind ? Go here and see that Silver currently has 3 different probabilistic analyses of the expected results. The one I posted last night, the "now cast" has actually flipped back toward Trump for some reason.

Go here and try the three radio buttons on the upper right hand side.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Correct.
However, it does make the data he posts useless...

marcus says

If an analysis indicates something has a 60% chance of happening, and then the opposite (40% chance of happening) happens, it doesn't make the guy an idiot.

marcus says

If we refused to have that occur, or insisted that it not occur this would mean essentially isolating ourselves, and allowing global competing corporations of other countries to take advantage of that labor to their competitive advantage in the global market place.

Bullshit! There is NO reason why stuff sold in USA can't be made in USA. For consumption outside the US, you can have a separate factory somewhere else for that. The US market for most products is big enough to warrant a separate manufacturing location in the US. That, and a lot of things are made in more facility anyway.

I think I almost decoded what you're trying to say. But it still makes no sense. Not if you understand the most basic economics. People tolerate paying more for drugs than people outside the U.S pay, but that has nothing to do with where they are manufactured.

Answer this. SAy we make the Nike shoes here and sell them for $250, and we have a plant in China that sells them there and in a few other countries for $60 (US). Which ones do we sell in Austria, France, Iceland, New Zealand and England (to name only a few) ? Are we going to sell the Chinese Nike shoes made in China by an Amercian firm to everyone except ourselves ? Really ?

If you explore the logic and the example it sets, yes, you're talking about isolationism. Does everyone need to be totally isolationist for your thoughts on this to make sense ?

marcus says

I think I almost decoded what you're trying to say. But it still makes no sense. Not if you understand the most basic economics.

You are the one who is too strip to understand that today many, if not most things are made in more than one facility, and it would be easy enough to have one of pretty much everything made in USA, like it used to be.

That and made in USA shoes won't cost $250 either. Probably closer to $80 which is what nicer New Balance shoes used to cost. I don't know if Kswiss still makes them here, but if I could find them online I could get more accurate pricing.

Yes it's possible to have factories just for the US market, and a factory in Thailand to. Export everywhere else. Perhaps you aren't old enough to remember, but I do remember when pretty much everything in the stores was made in USA.

marcus says

Are we going to sell the Chinese Nike shoes made in China by an Amercian firm to everyone except ourselves ?

Yes. Why not? But shoes are a poor example. We could create more and better paying US jobs with domestic requirements for things like cars, car parts, and some basic materials. We can make our own TV's , air conditioning systems, etc. Just like we used to

marcus says

People tolerate paying more for drugs than people outside the U.S pay, but that has nothing to do with where they are manufactured.

The made in China Craftsman tools I see in the stores is priced exactly the same as the previous made in USA ones were. I also see a LOT of others thugs where the price never changed when the factory moved to China or Mexico, so I have no reason to necessarily expect price increases when stuff is made in USA again. Have also noticed that cars made in Korea and Mexico cost about the same as similar cars Made in USA

Chinese man works for 10c/hour. None of you can compete your labor with that unless you fine starving to death, while making global elites rich.

Booger says

Probably closer to $80 which is what nicer New Balance shoes used to cost.

THat's in the 1980s. A price of $80 in 1988 is like paying $160 now. Clothing and shoes are way cheaper now than they were 30 years ago if you adjust for inflation.

YOu should listen to the Goldsmith video above and listen to the debate a ways into it. The trade deals aren't even the reason manufacturing is done overseas. THat was happening anyway. The trade deals are about helping our exports and protecting so called intellectual capital.

What you are advocating makes no sense to me. How do you make it happen ? Is it just for selected products ? I don't know whether you just haven't thought this through, or whether you are unable to.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/759620538113273856

Trump up by 4 points in VA

zzyzzx says

Trump up by 4 points in VA

I've been practicing my gloat face. I'm going to want to force stunning tears.

Maybe you should be practicing your nostalgia face, fondly thinking back and daydreaming about that special week back in late July '16.

If it gets back above 75% on Nate's "now-cast," then I can breathe again and sleep well again.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Come on man. All hands on deck! You need to make up some compelling propaganda RIGHT NOW. This bounce might be taking TRump back to 4:1 dog.

Look at the bright side. You and zzyzzx are gonna have years of whining about Hillary and making up nonsensical crap about how everything is her fault. It will be fun !

But they erased their data and reworked the Hillary trend, the Polls are shit now. You're going to have to open your Trump present on November 8th and cry.

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/08/01/donald-trump-tops-every-poll-on-sanders-for-america-twitter-account/

Hillary really needed every Bernie voter to pull this off.

From today:

he he he

I think there is a non-zero chance that Trump drops out in the next month. And Paul Ryan is the next President.

Tenpoundbass says

There's just no way Trump would be polling at 15% cut it out.

Do you not understand what that graphic is saying? It's the probability that either candidate wins the White House based on state polling data. It's not saying that Trump is polling at 15%, it's saying that Trump is behind (3-7%) in most swing state polls and therefore has a small chance of winning enough states to become President.

This one kind of lags.

Remember last week when Trump was winning ? Sigh...those were the days...

dont forget assange says he still has emails that will put Clinton behind bars.

You'll crawl back in your swerer when you are proved wrong again.

Ironman says

Ha Ha ha, clueless, as usual.

The current polls are OVER SAMPLING Dems by 10% - 20% to get Hillary a few point advantage, yet, in reality, there are approximately the same percentage of Dems/Repubs in the country.

And we've come full circle. Despite claiming that polls were "skewed" in 2012 before the election, and then seeing that the polls were actually biased FOR Republicans, CIC is going to start all over with the polls are biased again. How idiotic are you? Do you ever learn anything?

Today's update:

Arizona and Georgia ready to flip next.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/08/04/shock-poll-trump-at-over-30-percent-with-black-vote-in-north-carolina/

Trump At Over 30 Percent With Black Vote In North Carolina
A poll released Wednesday of likely North Carolina voters shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton while at the same time gaining 32 percent of the black vote.

Ironman says

It's just factual numbers, tatty boy, from the major polling companies, but I wouldn't expect you to understand them based on your 2nd grade math skills.

Yep--and those numbers have proven to be VERY accurate predicting actual voting totals. Any bias is FOR Republicans.

It's hard to believe, but you may wish to at least consider that companies that do this for a living and depend on accuracy of results may have better and more sophisticated algorithms than assuming the country is 50/50.

zzyzzx says

Then how come nobody is showing up for Hillary rallys to the point where she has to cancel them?

Same reason you can have a huge KKK rally next to a nearly empty public library. Would you conclude that therefore hate is better than knowledge ?

marcus says

Same reason you can have a huge KKK rally next to a nearly empty public library. Would you conclude that therefore hate is better than knowledge ?

That's not an answer? You don't have an answer so I will have to give it to you. It's because nobody really likes Hillary.

Yep, 538 now-cast is saying about 10 to 1 odds against Trump winning if the election were held today.

zzyzzx says

marcus says

Same reason you can have a huge KKK rally next to a nearly empty public library. Would you conclude that therefore hate is better than knowledge ?

That's not an answer?

I thought it was a perfect answer. I like Hillary infinitely more than I like Trump, but I'm not someone that would go out of my way to go to any political rally, especially if I could see it on you tube.

What,... you think that because Trump has rock star or messianic following in some circles, more so than Hillary, that makes him a better candidate ? That's off the charts stupid. Even if the average IQ at a Trump rally was over 100 this argument wouldn't hold water. But we both know that isn't the case.

http://www.nytimes.com/video/us/politics/100000004533191/unfiltered-voices-from-donald-trumps-crowds.html

Surely it can't go much further than 1/11 that is 10:1 odds in favor of Hillary, before the end of the week. Right ?

marcus says

Surely it can't go much further than 1/11 that is 10:1 odds in favor of Hillary

In all seriousness, there are signs Trump has bottomed out, and is rebounding.

He has doubled his support among blacks: Marist has him at 1%, but only 3 hours later, NBC shows him at 2%.

TRUMP WHINING=TRUMP WINNING

Ironman says

Really?? They can actually control who picks up the phone and answers their polls? Wow, talk about power!

Instead of continuing to spew your lies and dis-information, why don't you dig into the recent polls and look at the data of the sample.

Nah, you won't do that, it will interfere with your delusional narrative.

I can't even believe you are this big of an idiot. Do you think they just call 1000 people at random and report the results without adjusting the data?

Ironman says

tatupu70 says

Any bias is FOR Republicans.

Do you think reporting the same lie over and over without proof makes it true?

No, I think showing data makes it true. Polls are overall very accurate, but any bias was favoring Republicans.