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Dan8267
2016 Sep 28, 12:30pm
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
To kill Donald Trump's chances of capturing the White House, Hillary Clinton needs to win Florida.
Hillary at all costs is starting to seem like a losing strategy. Yeah, the Democratic Party insiders got to fuck us independents in the primary. We get to do the same to them in the general election. Want me to vote Democrat for the president, have Hillary withdraw from the race and Bernie replace her. Short of that, fuck them all.
If they really are so damn scared of a Trump presidency, then they should have considered that during the convention. The entire purpose of those super delegates was to ensure that the party base did not cost the Democrats the White House in the general election. They failed and they have no one to blame but themselves.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 28, 12:56pm
If they really are so damn scared of a Trump presidency, then they should have considered that during the convention. The entire purpose of those super delegates was to ensure that the party base did not cost the Democrats the White House in the general election. They failed and they have no one to blame but themselves.
Yep. And the media often included Hillary's Superdelegate numbers in primary projections, which disheartened many people from voting for Bernie - a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Had Bernie been in the race, this would be a meat-and-potatoes election (which the media does not want, it wants fat shaming and orange tan discussions) and Bernie, not burned by decades of lies, smears, secrecy, bankster ball licking, Saudi Schlong Sucking, would have had a pretty good chance.
It's funny that some say Trump is an empty vessel voters fill with their dreams. Hillary is a vessel full of Bankster Cock Cream.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 28, 1:08pm
One other point, Dan.
Early in the Primary, it was clear Bernie had big Millenial and Hispanic Support, the very groups Hillary isn't wowing. And made inroads into White Working Class Voters because of his anti-TPP stance. It was also obvious that Blacks weren't coming out in big numbers FOR Hillary, that's how Bernie made some of Nate Silver's Predictions fall flat; Nate was counting on Hillary getting the Black and Millenial vote like Obama in states like Michigan based on 2008-2012.
But too many Dem voters were fooled by the Superdelegate Support and listened to the Very Serious People at the NYT and WaPo.
Dan8267
2016 Sep 28, 1:20pm
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
Early in the Primary, it was clear Bernie had big Millenial and Hispanic Support
As well as vast numbers of independents.
Lot of people hate Trump. Lots of people hate Hillary. Bernie was the only candidate on either side, save for that other Democrat that no one can name, who wasn't hated viciously by at least half the people in the country.
If needed to follow the first black president with the first woman president, no matter what, then the obvious choice was Elizabeth Warren, not Hillary. Warren not only has a clitoris, but also a brain and a sense of ethics. Hillary Clinton has effectively blocked a Warren bid for the White House.
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
It was also obvious that Blacks weren't coming out in big numbers FOR Hillary, that's how Bernie made some of Nate Silver's Predictions fall flat
Huh? Silver made predictions based on polling data and they were almost perfect. His demographic model was very accurate--to the point that even when polling claimed Hillary was up big on Bernie in Michigan, he posted that he was surprised as the demographic model predicted a much closer race. And, lo and behold, Bernie won Michigan.
Tenpoundbass
2016 Sep 28, 1:53pm
Trump never insulted the Mexicans he called for law breakers to be stopped. Liberals made this about Mexicans and it cost them their constituency for playing so stunningly from intelligence.
Trump won as great as he has because of the Liberals, the Republicans and the Establishment's reaction to him.
They were so busy calling him a racist cracker, it never occurred to them, that every word they called Donald they called his supporters, and anyone fed up with those calling Donald Trump names.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 28, 1:59pm
Huh? Silver made predictions based on polling data and they were almost perfect. His demographic model was very accurate--to the point that even when polling claimed Hillary was up big on Bernie in Michigan, he posted that he was surprised as the demographic model predicted a much closer race. And, lo and behold, Bernie won Michigan.
Hillary was supposed to win Michigan by a big margin. Nate had her chance of victory at near 100%
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/09/469837001/why-did-the-polls-fail-to-predict-sanders-win-in-michigan
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 28, 2:01pm
But Trump insulted Mexicans, and they are the same as Cubans.
Tee Hee! I think of all the White Coasties "But he insulted Mexicans". Cubans, Dominicans, Puerto Ricans, Guatemalans, all insult Mexicans. They have a reputation as stupid, violent peasants by most other Hispanics, kind of like the way Americans view Poles or Scots-Irish. "There they go again, praying to Saint Death that their brother who was stabbed last Winter at the Market will be avenged".
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
Hillary was supposed to win Michigan by a big margin. Nate had her chance of victory at near 100%
http://www.npr.org/2016/03/09/469837001/why-did-the-polls-fail-to-predict-sanders-win-in-michigan
Yep. And he was right. Remember--with 50 primaries in each party, you would expect a big upset to happen. The prediction wasn't wrong. And, like I said, Silver actually predicted that the race would be closer than the polls using his demographic model. So, blacks and Hispanics came out for Hillary just like he expected.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 28, 2:25pm
Yep. And he was right. Remember--with 50 primaries in each party, you would expect a big upset to happen. The prediction wasn't wrong. And, like I said, Silver actually predicted that the race would be closer than the polls using his demographic model. So, blacks and Hispanics came out for Hillary just like he expected.
No, he was wrong. Did you read the beginning of the interview? Enten admitted they got it wrong and that 538 had her chances of winning at 99%.
MCEVERS: And, Harry, one of the reasons we called you specifically is because FiveThirtyEight and your boss, Nate Silver, have a really good track record of forecasting elections. So yesterday, what was the prediction that you all had for Clinton to win Michigan?
ENTEN: Well, we had her chance of winning was greater than 99 percent. And that was based upon a whole bunch of polls. And what we saw yesterday was very, very shocking based upon the polls that you just illuminated upon, where Clinton was leading not just in one, not just in two, but all of the polls. And the polling average, in fact, had her winning by somewhere around 20 percentage points, so this was a real shocker.
Also keep in mind Nate Silver completely flubbed Trump, asserting he'd be gone by Super Tuesday (at the very latest) for months and months. Trump didn't just stay in past Super Tuesday, he won the Primary and is within a couple of points, well within the average MOE, of Clinton. Pretty big goof!
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
Yet going from 95% to 85% of the entire Black Vote could lose the whole state for the Democrats. That doesn't sound like Whitey is on the ropes.
I wonder what those numbers would be if 25% of blacks in florida hadn't lost their vote permanently because of a felony conviction. Pretty interesting that there is such a high rate of disenfranchisement all over the south, where serving your time doesn't get your vote back like the rest of the country. Do you suppose the white republican legislatures across the south that wrote the rules were aware of how many blacks would lose their votes? The same ones now writing all the voter id laws and taking all the polling places out of black areas. Na, must just be a coincidence.
MisdemeanorRebel
2016 Sep 28, 2:38pm
They already take into account Black Felon ineligibility when they do their internal polling. I'm pretty sure the leader of a Florida Democratic Black Women's caucus is aware of the issue. They're worried about non-Felon Blacks not showing up.
Too many Blacks have seen the "Superpredators - bring them to heel" videos.
Hillary isn't Bill. She's not anywhere near as charismatic.
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
No, he was wrong. Did you read the beginning of the interview? Enten admitted they got it wrong and that 538 had her chances of winning at 99%.
I read it and they weren't wrong. When I say there's a 99% probability of the Saints winning this Sunday and they lose, it doesn't mean I'm wrong. If they played 100 times, the Saints are expected to lose 1 time. It means the polling data was probably suspect and there was a lot of noise in the data. Which is why the probability wasn't 100%. But, like I said, if anything it showed how good Silver's demographic model was/is. He knew the polling was probably off because it didn't match what he expected from his model.
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
Also keep in mind Nate Silver completely flubbed Trump, asserting he'd be gone by Super Tuesday (at the very latest) for months and months. Trump didn't just stay in past Super Tuesday, he won the Primary and is within a couple of points, well within the average MOE, of Clinton. Pretty big goof!
Yep-Silver underestimated Trumps appeal and overestimated the party's control. That he was wrong about.
thunderlips11 is deplorable says
One other point, Dan.
Early in the Primary, it was clear Bernie had big Millenial and Hispanic Support, the very groups Hillary isn't wowing.
I don't know...from what I've heard millenials are with Hillary. They are susceptible to groupthink.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/hillary-clinton-florida-black-voters-228822
Remember the #MSM with glee telling us Whites, esp. White working class and Senior votes, are less important? Yet going from 95% to 85% of the entire Black Vote could lose the whole state for the Democrats. That doesn't sound like Whitey is on the ropes.