patrick.net

Bad form.

I don't believe that you believe that this country is as miserable as your fake name says it is

All of you are educated men and women...

You create left wing and right wing people on this site but you give up your education when you talk normal

They're asking me to debate David Stockman at the end of the month... If I get that chance on air

I am going to show all of you Why the Anti Fed crowd has been wrong and why the Anti American crowd has been wrong...

I pray I can get the video on this so you all can hear... why we kick ass as a country!!

Why all of you are wealthy because of it

36 bob2356 2016 Oct 7, 4:51pm

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward

Hey bob:

The labor PARTICIPATION RATE IS NEAR AN ABSOLUTE POST WWII LOW, and it even ECHOES LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE THE POST-GREAT DEPRESSION ERA 1930's.

You are obviously too stupid to click on the link and look at the chart? This has to be yet another ironbrain alt account. Only ironbrain is mathematically challenged enough to honestly believe believe 62% down from 67% is near an absolute post WWII low of 57.5%.

Hey dumbass, no one knows the 1930's participation rate, records weren't kept until 1946. You are part of the just make shit up movement I see.

Great job adding to the conversation there ironbrain. Or at least making such a fool out of yourself as to be entertaining.

MMR says

freespeechforever says

The labor PARTICIPATION RATE IS NEAR AN ABSOLUTE POST WWII LOW,

I'm sure he knows; he just does it to push peoples buttons

You can't look at the chart either? or have you been taking math lessons from ironbrain? Obviously a trump voter, it's true because hey I just made it up.

37 freespeechforever 2016 Oct 7, 4:51pm

Logan, you're a nice enough guy, and literate on specific economic matters such as mortgage originations and such, but you wander too far from your core knowledge base and into pure Pollyanna too often, and it makes you look really ignorant.

38 HEY YOU 2016 Oct 7, 4:53pm

It's really bad that american voters haven't had any say in where this country has ended up after + 200 years.
DAMN THOSE ELECTED OFFICIALS! IT'S ALL THEIR FAULT!

zzyzzx 2016 Oct 7, 4:53pm

YesYNot says

I'll give you that, but the graph doesn't come close to proving cause and effect,

_ 2016 Oct 7, 4:55pm

Its funny, you guys still think of me as a loan officer... when I am asked to speak at national conferences about economics

I promise you, if I get the shot against David Stockman... bring down the Anti Fed crew ..

Math, Facts and data wins!

Limf (x) =sky
x-a

Heraclitusstudent 2016 Oct 7, 5:02pm

Men .. are brave.... Americans are brave

Americans work

None of these charts change the story.
- If jobs were lost due to technology, we would be in a productivity boom. We aren't. This explanation just doesn't compute.
- The number of jobs in manufacturing is large. Apple employs in its supply chain 10x the number of its US employees working on development.
- Each manufacturing job did support probably 10x as many service jobs around them. (food, retail, etc...)
- many of the jobs you show are minimum wage or part time, do not replace manufacturing income.
- Instead as we lost the backbone of manufacturing we had to compensate that lost income with debt. The US national debt grew an average 9% per year since 1980.

This, coupled with not-in-workforce statistics, shows eloquently that the current globalization is not working well and is a very negative force for a large part of the population.
Denying there is a problem is silly.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:02pm

- If jobs were lost due to technology, we would be in a productivity boom. We aren't. This explanation just doesn't compute.

What you're not accounting for are the job created by technology and why we have 155 Million working

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:03pm

- The number of jobs in manufacturing is large.

We have the highest job opening for manufacturing in this cycle and it's the lowest work force group we have in America

44 bob2356 2016 Oct 7, 5:03pm

Ironman says

MMR says

I'm sure he knows;

Sadly, Bob doesn't know. Just scroll his comments and you'll see he adds nothing to the conversation, and being an idiot is his "normal":

https://patrick.net/comments.php?a=1795

Bob is in the running for the most useless member at Patnet and neck and neck with Roberta.

I see everything you've added to the conversation. Nothing at all as usual. Anything at all to back up your bullshit? No, of course not. Here is BLS (you know, the people who come with the statistics in the first place) explaining it for you. http://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-the-labor-force-why-arent-they-working.htm

Of course this is totally useless link for you because a) it is far beyond your comprehension, it has numbers and multi syllable words int b) if you were to somehow magically gain the ability to comprehend it you still wouldn't have the desire to since you are without a doubt the most proud of being wilfully uninformed person on the planet. The ignorant and proud of it movement has uses you for their poster child.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:04pm

- Each manufacturing job did support probably 10x as many service jobs around them. (food, retail, etc...)

I would love for you to prove this thesis, this is a dying industry for decades

output is awesome because of technology advances not trade

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:06pm

- many of the jobs you show are minimum wage or part time, do not replace manufacturing income.

82% full time workers
Real wages are at all time highs
Multi jobs as a % of workers are at 20 years lows

Don't make me bring out the median and mean income for educated people it will shut down a lot non sense but I will if you want

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:07pm

The US national debt grew an average 9% per year since 1980.

Not a problem what so ever

Strategist 2016 Oct 7, 5:08pm

- If jobs were lost due to technology, we would be in a productivity boom. We aren't. This explanation just doesn't compute.

Productivity goes in spurts. It will catch up.

- Each manufacturing job did support probably 10x as many service jobs around them. (food, retail, etc...)

All jobs support other jobs. (multiplier effect) Technology is supporting a lot of high paying jobs. What would you rather have......low paying manufacturing jobs, or high paying technology jobs

49 freespeechforever 2016 Oct 7, 5:12pm

Logan, you're pointing to the very real problem of higher efficiencies & productivity (culminating in autonomous or nearly-so production - think 13 man-hours to produce a vehicle today compared to 80 hours 60 years ago, or self-checkout supermarket lanes) supplanting he need for as much human labor.

In fact, some credible economists believe the future, increasingly autonomous machinations of production will foment revolutions and wars.

However, you need to build a more specific case as to how increasing productivity and further automation has impacted the labor non-participation levels on a relative basis versus foreign competition/trade liberalization (without equal laws, constraints, regulations, environmental standards - externalities, etc.).

Heraclitusstudent 2016 Oct 7, 5:13pm

I would love for you to prove this thesis, this is a dying industry for decades

I'm talking of the way it used to be. One person with a solid income, spending in the community, with the money circulating creating jobs.
Now you have only service, the income is not enough.
The only way it sort of works right now is because of massive debt growth.
Balance the deficit and your graphs would look catastrophic in no time.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:17pm

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/07/02/robots-are-not-taking-all-the-jobs/

However, you need to build a more specific case as to how increasing productivity

The reject the thesis of automation killing jobs

We have the highest job opening print ever recorded in human history today at 5,900,000 in all sectors of the U.S. even manufacturing

"Robots Are Not Taking All The Jobs"

"U.S. Job Market Reality"

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/02/united-states-job-market-reality/

2016 was the highest job opening to lowest unemployment claim spread every recorded in human history last month

Labor shortage, not a job one

Heraclitusstudent 2016 Oct 7, 5:17pm

Technology is supporting a lot of high paying jobs.

Really? What fraction of US jobs are good paying high tech jobs?
Again if this is the case, why do we need the 9%/yrs debt growth? And why are so many people left behind?

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:19pm

Balance the deficit and your graphs would look catastrophic in no time.

Deficits are a positive for the economy and mostly due to demographics

Economy has moved to a service economy and this has created the job boom as the exporting economy was dead duck for growth, everyone knew it ... world trade moves really around oil as that is the big import

Strategist 2016 Oct 7, 5:28pm

Strategist says

Technology is supporting a lot of high paying jobs.

Really? What fraction of US jobs are good paying high tech jobs?

Again if this is the case, why do we need the 9%/yrs debt growth? And why are so many people left behind?

I doubt there is a strong correlation between high paying jobs and deficits.
1. The 9% is a nominal rate. Inflation was high in the 70's and 80's.
2. After 911 and pointless wars,our deficit shot up.
3. 2008 crash resulted in more deficits due to bailouts, and keeping the economy afloat.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:32pm

2008 crash resulted in more deficits due to bailouts

Post recession deficits was all due to lack of revenue, the budget was in line actually.

government debt work is a area of mine, the budget doesn't really get whacked until years 2024

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:34pm

Most of the debt is to ourselves and we have more net wealth than all the other countries total GDP combined with the U.S. dollar.. what a sweet spot.. not to mention ass kicking demographics

Strategist 2016 Oct 7, 5:34pm

Strategist says

2008 crash resulted in more deficits due to bailouts

Post recession deficits was all due to lack of revenue, the budget was in line actually.

government debt work is a area of mine, the budget doesn't really get whacked until years 2024

Because we may have a recession in 2024?

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:36pm

Because we may have a recession in 2024?

No all mandatory payouts will exceed government revenue then, all demographics

We actually don't really spend much in America for as wealthy we are, it's a lot mandatory payouts

Which will mean nothing for us anyway, Germany and Japan are borrowing negative rates 10 years out now and we will never catch up to their debt to GDP and we have a lot more wealth than both of them combined 10X over

Heraclitusstudent 2016 Oct 7, 5:41pm

1. The 9% is a nominal rate. Inflation was high in the 70's and 80's.

But Inflation and real growth were low under Bush and Obama and yet national debt doubled under each one of them.
i.e. the debt is exploding much faster than nominal economy.

2. After 911 and pointless wars,our deficit shot up.

3. 2008 crash resulted in more deficits due to bailouts, and keeping the economy afloat.

These were just what we did with the debt.
It doesn't change the fact that without going 9% deeper in debt every single year we would be in deep recession.

Deficits are a positive for the economy and mostly due to demographics

If the deficits are due to retirement savings (money not spent), how come the saving rate is so low in the US?
Not only the debt grows 9% a year but this is not like this is due to a temporary factor: this is extra debt just to pay for our current living expenses as things are setup now.
All this while a number of people in their prime years are out on the side watching.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:47pm

If the deficits are due to retirement savings (money not spent), how come the saving rate is so low in the US?

Mandatory pay outs

S.S. and Medicare

any reduction of this payout would be bad

As long as their is no inflation created we are good and there hasn't be currency induced inflation due to federal debt

This is what I want to nail David Stockman on

61 freespeechforever 2016 Oct 7, 5:49pm

We are going to have an inflationary push-cost economic crash similar to 1980-1983.

Anyone claiming inflation is low is buying the purposefully misleading, adjusted and hedonically adjusted again, wrong "basket of goods" - over-weighing flexible, unnecessary goods (HDTVs & plastic trinkets) and under-weighing inflexible goods (medical bills, rent, education, utilities, taxes) that the BLS is intentionally disingenuously selling.

What will cause this crash to be much worse and much longer in duration than 1980-1983 is a) massive debt on government, corporate and household balance sheets + b) radical monetary policy of central banks the globe over for the last 8 years keeping interest rates at the zero bound while conducting monetization of government debt through QE and monetization of bad corporate debt through LSAP (large scale asset purchases) + c) massive underemployment and stagnant or declining real wages for 90% of populations (wealth inequality at levels higher than any periods other than the 1920s, revolutionary periods, etc.) + d) declining aggregate demand (look at exporting nations and indicators such as Baltic Dry Index) + e) currency devaluation wars that have already begun and will accelerate + (I'll write the remaining factors later after doing things on Friday night that must be tended to)...

to be continued

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:51pm

We are going to have an inflationary push-cost economic crash similar to 1980-1983.

People have been saying this for years

The best case for inflation is when our young demographics kick in, years 2020-2024

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:52pm

Another thing I am bringing up at the conference

U.S. dollar and imports

Dollar gets stronger it's deflationary for us

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:53pm

Service inflation grows stronger

Rent and medical inflation but our imports get cheap

Hence the Gap between PCE inflation and core inflation over decades

Malthus failed Folks!!!

We killed inflation on imports here

Strategist 2016 Oct 7, 5:54pm

These were just what we did with the debt.

It doesn't change the fact that without going 9% deeper in debt every single year we would be in deep recession.

The real number that counts is the debt/GDP ratio. We are OK there. We can afford it.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 5:57pm

On another note

Born 7 October 1885 - Niels Bohr, Denmark, physicist, expanded quantum physics (Nobel 1922)

67 freespeechforever 2016 Oct 7, 6:00pm

We killed inflation in much of the flexible goods type segments (e.g. Electronics - see post above) that people buy infrequently (maybe once a year or every 3 years), while we killed much of the labor demand for native workers and suppressed their wages with liberalized trade with nations not being as regulated (child labor, pollution, other laws), while inflation is roaring in inflexible goods/services (rent/housing, medical care, tuition, utilities taxes, etc.

We will see an inflationary cost-push crash followed by stagflation, and then because structural damage to economy (globally) is so severe, aggregate demand will crash leading to massive deflation ultimately.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 6:03pm

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/07/5900000-job-openings/

labor demand for native workers

I don't know how else to say this

We have 5,900,000 job openings in America in all sectors of the economy ( Highest level ever recorded in human history)

Read the report here

Strategist 2016 Oct 7, 6:05pm

We killed inflation in much of the flexible goods type segments (e.g. Electronics) that people buy infrequently (maybe once a year or every 3 years), while we killed much of the labor demand for native workers and suppressed their wages with liberalized trade with nations not being as regulated (child labor, pollution, other laws).

True, but the rest of our society benefited from cheaper and better quality products like cars.
As for child labor, many families in 3rd world countries would starve to death if they did not put their kids to work. You would have done the same.

_ 2016 Oct 7, 6:06pm

As for child labor, many families in 3rd world countries would starve to death if they did not put their kids to work. You would have done the same.

Heraclitusstudent 2016 Oct 7, 6:34pm

As long as their is no inflation created we are good and there hasn't be currency induced inflation due to federal debt

This is what I want to nail David Stockman on

So you want the debt to continue to grow 9% a year for decades while economic growth and inflation converge to 0?
Do you realize Stockman is going to make you look like a total idiot?

Heraclitusstudent 2016 Oct 7, 6:38pm