patrick.net

1978- trade balance took off

Which means we have some cheaper goods... and inflation fell

This is what you're basing your 1929 collapse thesis on

Because consumption has taken off

and right in line with our prime age labor force take off which started in 1979 really

It's not like Output has fallen, output is high, but in one sector job growth has stalled

Basically in short

Americans are on the verge of some epic 1929 crash

Because they have 155 Million plus working and real wages are at all time highs with inflation is low

Wow

Your entire 36 year thesis is flawed

I am not the one talking about deflationary collapse you are

And I think it's official. Logan was schooled.

Tampajoe says

And I think it's official. Logan was schooled.

Yes clearly a bunch of old people who are crying about a deflationary collapse using a black swan thesis

You guys follow a guy who used oil as a headline deflation factor

Rookies

You don't even know enough to know how bad you all sound

Anti American sissy cry babies

Go buy a bunker and hide .... Please..

Breitbart is on it

I see them linked right there in your OP

Look, the last thing the media needs is a Feminism Sunshine moment, right while they have their horse out in front down the home stretch

I wake up to this every morning. No better way to get psyched for the day.

www.youtube.com/embed/Vhh_GeBPOhs

www.youtube.com/embed/edN4o8F9_P4

www.youtube.com/embed/4KUeCUMJPMI

www.youtube.com/embed/8zEQhhaJsU4

www.youtube.com/embed/8pdkEJ0nFBg

And then there's his John Boehner moment.
www.youtube.com/embed/CYKFcwrHmi0

I'm waiting for Patrick Swayze to run on stage and make sweet, sweet love to Ballmer.

Classic Gates/Ballmer...

www.youtube.com/embed/FyutQrCP4zk

www.youtube.com/embed/C2Zd3HYKCRE

Bonus

www.youtube.com/embed/nNOohFst9Lc

No wonder Apple Watch has such bitchy ripostes.

They don't care it's really up to the Americans now. Hopefully there will be more Black people and Hispanic people that will step up and want to get out of the Democrat ghetto shadows and do the right thing for their family. That's the best we can hope for. I find American minorities like American Blacks and Latinos that have been here more than 12 years. Knows more about what's at stake than most Hillary supporters.
People that are Hillary supporters at this point, don't care about nothing else but party politics. She could decapitate a baby on stage and they would bash a typo in one of Trump's late night Tweets.

Poor hookers. Bill Gates makes me want to beat him up with a royal lift thrown in.

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

Apparently, he'd show up shitfaced and try to get the hookers to grab his gonads without intending to pay for a blow job

He could have just dressed up as a woman and let Trumpigula grab his pussy. Same effect and no one gets pissed off.

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

Fuckface Ballmer is a billionaire because he kept hookers in Bay Village from beating up Bill Gates when they were loser undergrads at Harvard who couldn't get sucked off by Radcliffe chicks like normal guys in their class. Daddy Gates appreciated Steve's menacing size and the utility it had in scaring away vicious prostitutes and their marauding pimps who would harm their darling Billy.

For a minute there,I was believing this! lol

Both parties are co-opted by corporations and foreign actors (globalists).

Trump, regardless as to what one thinks of him, is a genuine threat to the order and predictability that corporations and globalists invested in heavily, and depend on.

He's the 1st genuine outsider to have a shot at becoming president of the U.S. since Barry Goldwater or Robert Kennedy (though RFK was assassinated before he could announce his intention to run and mount a campaign that he likely would have won).

If Ballmer weren't a billionaire, he could get work playing fat, vicious psychopaths on TV and in movies. He's a shoo-in for Criminal Minds. Bill could play his wimpering gimp.

Right...Trump is essentially an independent, with an interesting mix of social & economic ideas, who used the Republican Party as a springboard to get to one of the two slots for a shot at being elected as POTUS.

Ross Perot was effectively boxed out by the GOP & forced into a very weakened position of having to run as an independent once he came out against NAFTA and proposed major cuts to entitlement spending (at least slowing increases to such programs), and disfavoring American military adventurism unless real, core American interests were truly at stake.

Trump leans right to independent on social issues, is truly independent economically (leans left on foreign trade but is nearly libertarian on gov't regulations/strangling of small and mid size businesses), and co-opted the idiotic establishment GOP platform to get to where he's at.

This is why the establishment wing of both major parties hate him, and why Jill Stein actually prefers him to Hillary; he's the closest thing to an anti-establishment candidate to have a shot at winning the position of POTUS in the modern era.

AllTruth says

In other news, DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie LOVES HILLARY CLINTON BECAUSE SHE SUCKS WALL STREET'S ASS, AND TAKES HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS TO FINANCE HER CAMPAIGN FROM BANKS AND WALL STREET, INCLUDING ...

...BANK OF AMERICA !!!

(DBOAPD is a pro-Hillary twat-eating troll)

Beginner!

AllTruth says

(DBOAPD is a pro-Hillary twat-eating troll)

perhaps. i think he's a CALPERS leach.

Logan. It seems like demographics (working age workers/consumers) alone were not sufficient to turn the great depression around. How do you reconcile that with your emphasis on demographics ?

"New comment by marcus in Time Stamp your 2016 Recession Call Now:
Logan. It seems like demographics (working age workers/consumers) alone were not sufficient to turn the great depression around. How do you reconcile that with your emphasis on demographics ?"

Hmm good point. Do you have demographic data from that time period?

errc says

Am I reading that last chart correctly?

We're all too stupid and uneducated to understand it.

Where is the demographic data?

indigenous says

Where is the demographic data?

There is No demographic data that matters because we have 155 Million plus working people now

1929 had 121,000,000 people in general, women weren't even working in mass then

This is a Sick Mad scientist thesis

The economy of the roaring 20's and post Depression cycle is not the country we live in

I know why you need a Great Depression II thesis

It will never happen, M's are 90 Million plus alone, let a lone peak earnings years are ages 45-54

This is a crazy man thesis...

Basically humans won't buy gas or food in 2017-2020 ....

That's the only hope you have for the Black Swan thesis

Run and hide. That's all Logan can do.

Why don't you compare wealth disparity--1929 vs. 2016? Then get back with me about how nothing is similar.

Tampajoe says

-1929 vs. 2016?

Left wing Liberal non sense the great low velocity thesis leading to a 1929 crash... cry baby nation

Highest nominal debt owners have highest nominal financial assets

Home owners which isn't going to collapse 60%

Cry all you want on this site

Beg and hate America all you want...

You will lose ....

and I promise you in the next 20 years I will smash your Great 2nd Depression thesis

Piece by Piece

Americans don't beg or cry like this

Go to Chile ... leave before the storm happens, don't come back

But you dare think you will be part of this Great Country in the next recession/recovery cycle when you pile this Mickey Mouse economic theory

There is always a lot of talk about the causes of the Great Depression.

I recall you mentioning somewhere that demographics had something to do with it.

I don't believe there was a black swan back then or in 2008.

My obligatory statement is that it was the Fed in both cases.

You don't agree...

Any economic collapse has to come from a over investment cycle

This is what I am going to tell David Stockman and all the Anti American Bears who this we are in a bubbl

You can't even have a mass bubble cycle without a prime age labor force boom which would lead into an over investment cycle

Tech 2000 and Housing 2007

Demographics where good 1996-2007... speculation happened..

We had the Great Recession and we got out of it in 18 months

This isn't 1929

This is 2016

So, you've posted multiple times now without ever addressing the one topic I raised--wealth disparity.

All you can do is run.

I have no doubt.

I don't think demographics are the main reason for over-investment.

Tampajoe says

I raised--wealth disparity.

Why does wealth assets have to do with consumption

The extreme left wing radicals in this country who hate wealthy people.. fine

Believe that net asset wealth or the $ hording by 1% somehow means the system is going to collapse because people don't spend

Yet the Middle class in this country from 1967 -2015 shrunk more due to more Americans making 100K

"Why does wealth assets have to do with consumption"

Nominated.

It's hard to buy stuff without assets. If you go to the store, they usually expect you to, you know, pay for anything you want to bring home.

No wealth = no demand. Doesn't matter if one is "prime working age" or not.

Now if the country's middle class were high school drop outs and 2nd wage earners.. then you could have a thesis that would make sense, and yet 70 years of data would disagree with that

Anti American left ... now that women are working and making money, always forget the college educated dual income power we have

I don't hate America. Logan sure seems to be anti-American

I don't cry or whine, either. I'm open to the possibility, that the next economic shitstorm, won't be your standard recession. People like Logan can't see it coming, because they are stuck inside of a box.

errc says

People like Logan can't see it coming,

I am going to bury all of you left wing people on this site just as I did the right wing people the last few years

You are all trapped in this

Great Depression II thesis

You picked the wrong country to bet against...

I will never let any of you Left Wing people off the hook

Peddling Fiction ..... President Obama ....