patrick.net

Strategist says

Syria isn't that important to the world either. Just another violent and crazy Mid East country.

That's your opinion. I'm sure plenty of others disagree. That doesn't negate the fact that Aleppo has been in the news for years and has been an important regional city for thousands of years. People should know where it is. The fact that you/they don't speaks more to your/their lack of knowledge than the importance of that city.

Rashomon says

Strategist says

Syria isn't that important to the world either. Just another violent and crazy Mid East country.

That's your opinion. I'm sure plenty of others disagree. That doesn't negate the fact that Aleppo has been in the news for years and has been an important regional city for thousands of years. People should know where it is. The fact that you/they don't speaks more to your/their lack of knowledge than the importance of that city.

Why should anyone care about Aleppo? What's so special about it?
If people don't care about Syria, why would they care about Aleppo, a Syrian city. I care more for where my next vacation will be at, and Aleppo is not on the list.

They called him Beaver because he was fucked in the head.

Strategist says

Why should anyone care about Aleppo? What's so special about it?

If people don't care about Syria, why would they care about Aleppo, a Syrian city. I care more for where my next vacation will be at, and Aleppo is not on the list.

The only Middle East countries I would consider visiting are UAE, Egypt and Israel. The rest of the Mid East is # 1 million on my bucket list. Honestly, if the whole crazy Mid East was swallowed up by the earth, I would buy everyone on Patnet a beer.

indigenous says

Bullshit nobody knew where Aleppo before some NBC reporter used to trick Johnson.

Cut twice; never measure.

neplusultra57 says

indigenous says

Bullshit nobody knew where Aleppo before some NBC reporter used to trick Johnson.

Cut twice; never measure.

What you talkin about Willis.

Daddy says Chelsea living high off the foundation for a decade is proof enough of Clinton corruption. AND her 6 figure wedding funded by qutarCash should garner some juicy state department favors.

I decided to read this thread backwards, from finish to start. About halfway done and it's so much fun!

Strategist says

Why should anyone care about Aleppo? What's so special about it?

If people don't care about Syria, why would they care about Aleppo, a Syrian city. I care more for where my next vacation will be at, and Aleppo is not on the list.

Er, there's a difference between caring and knowing.

Rashomon says

Strategist says

Why should anyone care about Aleppo? What's so special about it?


If people don't care about Syria, why would they care about Aleppo, a Syrian city. I care more for where my next vacation will be at, and Aleppo is not on the list.

Er, there's a difference between caring and knowing.

My point....no one knows nor cares about Aleppo. If i owned Aleppo, i would trade it for a car.

This latest use of the FBI circus to attack Clinton happened during the days over 20 million Americans voted
==========================

But many more will vote on Tuesday. And let's face it.... The college votes are what matter. And that happens Tuesday. The fact is.... had Comey said nothing and it got out, it would have been much worse for them then just admitting that the emails existed and expediting the reclosure of the investigation. They were in a tough situation. Reopening the case had its risk to the early voters... But given how little they matter... I think they did the math and decided that it was better to lose out on some of the early voting in order to have her cleared by the time the real voting, the college voting, the voting that actually elects the President, happened.

So Jazz.... at no time has a president won the popular vote but lost the electoral college vote, thus losing the presidency? Are you saying that's never happened before?

Then you misunderstood my original post, because that was my point. You say that there's great gravity to her potential loss in the early voting due to Comeys announcement. I said, it doesn't really matter because the situation was resolved before Tuesday when the rest of the country, and more importantly, the college votes occur. And you said I was wrong. Now you say that I'm changing the subject. Seriously, no more wine for you! ;)

jazz music votes early says

accuse me of being drunk.

Because you said I changed the subject when that subject was the very point of my original post.... but I was just kidding about the drinking. Notice the wink-smiley face after The sentence. A commonly recognized symbol for kidding around.

turtledove says

So Jazz.... at no time has a president won the popular vote but lost the electoral college vote, thus losing the presidency? Are you saying that's never happened before?

The electoral college is based on the popular vote in each state. Each early vote counts as much as each vote on the 8th, so there is no'real vote'. Plus, if Clinton wins Florida, it is pretty much over. More than 2/3rds of the Florida vote is expected to be early. So if there were a 'real' vote, it would be the early vote.

That said, I agree with Obama that Comey is an honest person doing his best, but that he made a mistake going public. Note that reopening the investigation and going public are two different things. Like I said many times, they could filter through the bulk of those emails very quickly. So he could have realized quickly that there was probably nothing much there.

Strategist says

My point....no one knows nor cares about Aleppo. If i owned Aleppo, i would trade it for a car.

Then your point is sadly mistaken. A great many people know and care about what has happened to Aleppo and the people living there.

Tenpoundbass says

I think Hillary has peaked.

Lol, Hillary's early voting push may be all she gets.

If so, it shows how few people want her "out of prison."

"Is that what CNN and Mother Jones told you today?"

No--but you go right ahead and keep posting articles from zerohedge. That's a well respected, unbiased source.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/11/florida-democrats-widen-early-vote-lead-thanks-to-south-florida-sunday-blowout-107167?lo=ap_e3

turtledove says

I thought something was up when Obama said that Comey was just doing his job.

Yes, I'd be surprised if Obama does not coordinate with Clinton.

An analogy with the investigations of Bill 20 years ago is false. The republicans are now lying low because they don't like Trump. Wait until after the elections.

We'll find out tonight!

"Nice job disproving the email in the OP.... Why do you hate FACTS???"

I love facts. Let me know when you decide to start posting some.

It's not a prediction. It's his summary of where the polling stands stated in terms of probabilities.

How accurate was Nate in the Primaries?

I bought some Hillary at -300 last week and sold most of it back yesterday with Trump +420.

I still think Hillary wins, but I'm not the type to pass up free money

How accurate was Nate in the Primaries?

Pretty accurate actually. His demographic model performed very well.

It looks about right. However, there are a number of toss-ups that happen to be in Clinton's columns. She will likely win, but she will likely lose at least one of NV, FL, NC, and NH. Nate is showing them all blue, but that doesn't mean that he'd tell you he thinks that they will all go that way. You can go look at the individual likelyhood of Hillary winning each state.

NH: 70%
NV: 58%
NC: 55%
FL: 55%

That means that if these were statistically independent (no underlying bias towards one candidate across states) that Clintons chances of winning all of these states are just:
0.7*0.58*0.55*0.55 = 12%. Trump's chances of winning all of them are 0.3*0.42*0.45*0.45 = 2.5%. So, even if the polls are fair, he has a 2.5% chance of winning all of those states. If you assume inherent bias in his favor, his odds go up.

So, Nate would predict that she will likely not win all of those states. But if you had to bet on any one in particular, you would be better off betting on Clinton.

Tampajoe says

It's not a prediction. It's his summary of where the polling stands stated in terms of probabilities.

Uhhhh... seriously?

Send Nate back to the Sewer where he came from. This Clown has never been known until he was conscripted by the Media to derail Trump's Primary. He released bogus polls the whole damned time. And for the last 4 months, every Liberal on the planet has been lying and denying that Nate Sliver never had one single Primary poll right the whole time. Not even one, everyone of the candidates at one point or another. Was going to be the candidate that was going to end Trump's chances the following Tuesday. Every single last one of them.
They kept repeating over and over "Trump has no clear path to victory" remember that?

After today, let's hope Nage the not so Great Sivler goes back to hell where the Liberals found him.

Ironman says

Here is RCP today without toss-ups and where they think states will go:

All Trump needs to do is flip NH.

joshuatrio says

Uhhhh... seriously?

Yes. Read my post if you want to know why.

Here's a summary of his model: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
Here's what Nate's prediction is:
On popular vote. Most likely outcome is Clinton by 3.5. He has editorialized that it might be more like 4 by the time the polls, b/c they are moving in her direction and the polls lag. He's also said that usually, things fall within 2 points of the expected mean, but things can clearly be and have been off by more than two. You can eyeball the popular vote distributions to see that he gives her about a 20% chance of beating her in the popular vote. One tail on a single deviation is about 16%. He's closer than that though.

He gives Trump a 30% chance of winning the electoral college. If you eyeball that chart (mentally integrate over Clinton with 270-360), you get about a 50% chance (0.6*90). There's clearly a 30% chance of Trump winning. That leaves about a 20% chance of Clinton getting > 360. What I think is interesting is that the peak on that distribution is so broad. I think that his model must not assume that the states are independent (as it shouldn't). Otherwise, I would think that the peak would be narrower.

Silver is predicting she'll win by 3.5%. I agree with him that it will probably be 4%. I'd be surprised if it wasn't between 1% and 7%. You posted facts without any interpretation. You want to be able to imply something without offering an opinion, so that you can hedge your bets.

I think that the polls are pretty accurate and the results usually fall within +-2%. I don't believe that there is any giant conspiracy of Jewish overlords controlling the banks and media and skewing these polls for Clinton. If you do (like Trump and Giuliani) then go ahead and tell us what you think the popular vote will be.

Here's what oversampling means and how it is legitimately used: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/25/politics/donald-trump-polls-rigged-oversampling-democrats/

That particular sample may be of by a couple percent. But there is probably a reason so many polls keep getting lots more dem responses. It might be a different way they are asking the questions. For example, how are you registered. Might give a different result from how do you identify. How you identify might be impacted by how you are voting in the present election or how you feel today.

Trump's internal polling agrees with the major polls, so trump knows they are fair. He's just lying about it. You actually believe the lie.

This shit cracks me up.

I don't believe God will allow a nuclear holocaust. But the end of the world could be near.

Watch CNN now for a good laugh...

APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE says

TRUMPLIGULA!'s FIRST DICTATES:

OBAMFUCK: Back to Kenya!

IHLLARY: Under arrest by AG Steven Segal

God willing.

No I'm just watching CNN trying to come to terms with the facts. Wolf almost pissed his pants because Clinton was up 99 votes in NH. Only to be disappointed 45 seconds later.

I guess you flail a lot when you don't get your talking points direct from the DNC. Guess they're not picking up the phone.

"Hello Donna?"
"Donna... can you hear me.?"

"Donna... Donna?"