patrick.net

I meant 65% of today's value, 35% of today's value, yeah, I wish.

Randy really has a point. I much rather have higher rent and higher overall income in the economy in order to justify the higher price than have a crashing economy. If my preference is irrelevant. We must position for the crash if that is the likely outcome.

Well Vancouver is kinda “prime” but there is evidence of overbuilding
and the September inventory may be up above the last two years ultimately it is a glacial pace and requires infinite patience….

It has "overbuilding" written all over the wall. I guess condos will be a good buy in a few years.

Plus the CAD/USD exchange rate was around 1.6/1.0...

I looked at Vancouver in 2001 and am sorry to have passed. Well, there will always be opportunities in the future since RE will likely become very unpopular in the next decade.

yes we have oil, we have minerals and coal, we have water and at some point will be willing to sell everthing to the highest bidder

Oil or tar sand?

here’s today’s sunset

primetroll, please do not tempt us.

Primetroll,

we are well aware of the black gold reserve up there. We consider Canada a province of the Empire of America, thanks for keeping the oil, gold, lumber intact. :-)

But, Peter, am I to understand that as a climb down from your previously stated “October Surprise” position shared by all of the wizards on Ben’s mushroom farm?

Not exactly. It will be a credit market event. RE corrections take years.

Mushroom farm? If it is white truffle I am up for it.

Jack--
LOL...online here, it's good to be reminded we're both reasonable guys...even if I know how to tap phone boxes ;)

SactoQt -

Hey, sorry for the primadonna thing back top this thread. Shouldn't have done the "I'm leaving thing." Really not a response to anything said here. Really juvenille.

Further, thanks for monitoring the thread. It's a public service, and you're not even taking my tax money at the point of a gun.

Finally, I meant what I said about letting trolls talk, but I didn't say it with the intent to rub salt in the surfers wounds. I apologize for doing that.

As for the person who questioned my level of hate?
There is almost none left. What you read is disappointment and disgust, not hate.

Oh, and Jamie, please don't assume too much when you read my posts. When I said middle america would find california type diversity unwelcome, I neither implied nor stated that I was of like mind. I don't like American culture much, so I find it quite easy to deal with others.

"Oh, and Jamie, please don’t assume too much when you read my posts."

Escape, I'm sorry I read more into your post than you meant. :-)

Central Cali,

I don't have any fast stats on how many migrant workers are still employed in CA agriculture, but I doubt it's zero (the UFWs still in business, I gather ;-) ). You may be right about mechanization eliminating many of those jobs, but last time I travelled up the I-5 I saw plenty of 'em working the fields.

Mr Left-Right-Wrong,

Hispanic tax-paying, legal workers: no problemo! The more skilled & educated, the better for everyone. Illegal, easily exploited, wage-depressing anything: not so good.

Mr Left-Right-Wrong,

I find it a little hard to believe your comments were deleted from Ben's blog --they're a more high-strung bunch, yes, but not intolerant. You're way too low key and, as you say, don't anger easily. I wonder, are your posts being mistaken for a certain troll known to pollute such RE blogs? Just curious...

OwnerOccupier,

Vancouver is a funnel for Chinese money into North America, there is as much industry in Vancouver as in any city in California. There was a big crash in prices in 97 after Hong Kong reverted to China and that money temporarily dried up. Prices in Vancouver are still not as high as in California, and so now in the last three years a lot of American money has flowed north. Of course, this is now slowing as markets in the US get shaky, and the Canadian dollar has risen from .62 to .85 in just over a year on the back of sound federal finances and strong commodity prices, and now record oil prices as well.

We are heading back to a Canadian dollar on par with the US dollar, a flood of American "immigrants" (like the Chinese before them), and wholesale advantages for local industry (can you say, BC Hydro?).

But of course, our real estate markets are still overextended and heading for a correction as well, usually trailing yours by a year, all else being equal.

Risky financing is not nearly as prevalent here, but absentee investor landlords are common.

Personally, if rich americans could please stay in America for another year or so to let our prices drop a bit, it would be appreciated by all canadians who can't afford houses right now.

In Victoria, a family earning over the median household income is unable to qualify for any kind of townhouse or house without at least $100,000 down. How ridiculous is that?

That means prices here are also now completely disconnected from incomes.

I find the deleting of Mr. Right-Left-Wrong's post's surprising too. I hope it isn't because of a bullish slant, that would be very wrong. I certainly have never thought of you as a troll.

Escape from the District.................with Kurt Russel

Thanks for the post. I have liked a lot of what you have had to say and I think your imput is valuable. I guess a lot of us got a tad angry, and like Surfer-X said, maybe there should be a post asking why we're all so angry about a housing market?

Btw, I’m getting very busy these days. We need more threadmaster’s. Anyone anyone??? I’m going to keep pestering until someone steps up.

So far no one's stepped up to the plate on SactoQt's request...

C'mon, how hard is it to register and create ONE MEASLY THREAD! Some of the posts I've read here are so long they should be broken down into chapters. You're telling me you can spend an hour writing a doctoral disseration on macroeconomics, but can't spend ONE MINUTE creating a new thread??

Who are you trying to kid here :???:
I have a little "homework" assignment for the following regulars:

Kurt S
Jack (and I don't want to hear another lame "I don't have time" excuse!)
Surfer-X
primetroll
Mr. Right
Praetorian
Van Kouver
Stanman
Randy H
Jamie
Karrie
SJ_Jim
dipanjan
AntiTroll from Oz
Escaped from DC
pop!
CentralCali
Owneroccupier
pbass
jbunniii

Register (if you haven't already done so) email Patrick asking for moderation rights (p@patrick.net) and start ONE THREAD. That's all I'm asking. If you decide you don't ever want to moderate again, no problem --I'll never bug you again, I promise :-).

I have noticed a change in tone when I talk to people about the housing market. I mean, it's really noticeable. For the last couple of years whenever I told anyone that I was a renter, I usually heard comments like "Oh, why don't you buy?" And of course, everyone's favorite "You really should buy in or you're going to get priced out."

Now, whenever I say I am renting and waiting the market out for another 2-3 years, every person I talk to now says "Oh, that's smart in this market." And I'm also hearing a lot of comments like "My cousin/in law's/brother is doing the same thing."

Maybe the tone has changed more dramatically here because our market is likely to go down before the BA, at least I think that is going to be the case. Actually, I'm seeing anecdotal evidence (like the story I posted earlier) that prices are already declining here. And there isn't any sentiment among people I'm talking to that the market is going to rebound in the near future.

Fellow Canadian/psuedo Americans up there (aka tsusiat, primetroll, ..)

While I like the Pacific Northwest in general, I am a bit concerned over your infrastructure standard in the earthquake-prone zone. As far as I can tell, most of your structure built up there (including Seattle) cannot stand well in a >5.0 earthquake. It is not unlikely that you guys will see a BIG one in the near future, some scientists pointed out that you are long overdue.

Apart from that, Pacific Northwest rocks.

Ben definately does delete posts that he disagrees with. I was just deleted a while ago.

I just reposted there. He will probably delete it again.

Zephyr - can you post the offending comment here? I'm curious to see what it takes to get deleted there.

Zephyr, I read your post.
It's a little combative in tone and the argument's a little straw-man-ish perhaps, but hardly troll-worthy material. I can't see why it got deleted.

Ok, I've registered, and would like to post a new thread,

"why you so bitter, bro"

how do I do so?

Btw, I posted an almost identical thread to Ben's latest ("How Would You Fix This Housing Bubble?") called "Bubble Reform" back on August 10th.

I really can't think of a single time when I've thought Zephyr ought to be deleted. I can handle argumentative. It's outright insults that one has to draw the line at, simply for the sake of sane discussions. But to delete when you disagree with someone is wrong.

Bravo, Surfer-X!

Just email Patrick (p@patrick.net), asking for thread creating/moderating rights. Once he's granted you rights, log on then click on the 'Site Admin' link under 'Meta' on the main page. Click on "Write" and there you are...

I just checked, and Ben deleted it again. No surprise.

Zephyr, your comment got deted again. Your name must be on his "spam" list for some reason --no way Ben can be actively moderating 24/7.

I LOVE the idea of Surfer-X creating a thread!

BTW, I rarely post there. So it is very unlikely that I have any kind of reputation there.

Zephyr

Well, you know we value your insights and no one here (I think) objects to thoughtful opinions whether we agree or not. I for one think you are a great resource and I'm glad you'll spend time with us.

Ok I'm done with the love fest. But I think it needs to be said.

HARM,

I don't think he has me listed as spam. A post that I made last night is still there.

Wow, talk about thin-skinned. We put up with MP's crap for over a month (and still are) before we booted his masturbatory flame-provoking ass. As long as it doesn't get excessivly personal, crude or spammy, I'd prefer not to block.

Well, you know we value your insights and no one here (I think) objects to thoughtful opinions whether we agree or not. I for one think you are a great resource and I’m glad you’ll spend time with us.

Ditto - debating in the absence of contrary viewpoints is like clapping with one hand.

Thanks, I am not shy about expressing my opinion, and I can be strong in my views. But, the appropriate response is a counter argument, not deletion.

But, the appropriate response is a counter argument, not deletion.

Absolutely.

OMFG.

Longest. Thread. Ever.

Who is this Randy H kid, and why does he seem to think that informed, rational argument is any way to discuss things?

@Harm: heh

@Peter: head down, tempo, back and through on plane

@sqt: Holy crap! *ahem* How's sac?

@SurferX: Sometimes, the dude... Well. He's the dude.

@Jack: Could you do your ascii art in a more classical style? Since ascii artists threw out concepts such as symmetry, proportion and humanism, it's no wonder that the public audience has faded. It is not the public that has failed ascii art, but rather ascii art that has failed the public.

Cheers,
prat

Welcome, back, Prat!

You're right --this is the longest thread ever. This is exactly why we need solid bloggers like you to put a stop to it by registering and starting new ones ;-).

Well, dudeareno if you're not into the whole brevity thing....:)