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Social effects of the bubble


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2005 Sep 21, 3:01am   51,441 views  583 comments

by SQT15   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per Jamie's request

What kind of social impact do you think there has been by the bubble? Are people any different because of the wealth effect? What about the social impact on people who have not bought into the RE market? Do you think what we are seeing is predictable human behavior that will occur again in the next bubble?

Is there a social impact we haven't discussed yet?

#bubbles

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251   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 3:41pm  

HARM,

I don't think he has me listed as spam. A post that I made last night is still there.

252   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:50pm  

Wow, talk about thin-skinned. We put up with MP's crap for over a month (and still are) before we booted his masturbatory flame-provoking ass. As long as it doesn't get excessivly personal, crude or spammy, I'd prefer not to block.

253   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 3:54pm  

Well, you know we value your insights and no one here (I think) objects to thoughtful opinions whether we agree or not. I for one think you are a great resource and I’m glad you’ll spend time with us.

Ditto - debating in the absence of contrary viewpoints is like clapping with one hand.

254   Zephyr   2005 Sep 22, 4:02pm  

Thanks, I am not shy about expressing my opinion, and I can be strong in my views. But, the appropriate response is a counter argument, not deletion.

255   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 4:05pm  

But, the appropriate response is a counter argument, not deletion.

Absolutely.

256   praetorian   2005 Sep 22, 4:09pm  

OMFG.

Longest. Thread. Ever.

Who is this Randy H kid, and why does he seem to think that informed, rational argument is any way to discuss things?

@Harm: heh

@Peter: head down, tempo, back and through on plane

@sqt: Holy crap! *ahem* How's sac?

@SurferX: Sometimes, the dude... Well. He's the dude.

@Jack: Could you do your ascii art in a more classical style? Since ascii artists threw out concepts such as symmetry, proportion and humanism, it's no wonder that the public audience has faded. It is not the public that has failed ascii art, but rather ascii art that has failed the public.

Cheers,
prat

257   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 4:31pm  

Welcome, back, Prat!

You're right --this is the longest thread ever. This is exactly why we need solid bloggers like you to put a stop to it by registering and starting new ones ;-).

258   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 4:38pm  

Well, dudeareno if you're not into the whole brevity thing....:)

259   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 4:41pm  

Regarding immigrants, each time I drive through King City and see all those mofo's picking whatever, I yell out the window "you sons o'bitches how dare you take jobs from amerikans". Or alternatively "hola pendehos"

260   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 4:43pm  

I kid, I kid. :) *

*disclaimer -- I'm 1/2 mexican

261   praetorian   2005 Sep 22, 4:52pm  

I emailed patrick. I'll chip in.

We've got a piper down. I repeat, the piper is DOWN.

What?

Cheers,
prat

262   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 5:05pm  

A320 pilot to cabin "what the fuck did you expect, we're French"

263   surfer-x   2005 Sep 22, 5:05pm  

BTW, never ever consider a Boston Terrier, they snore something terrible.

264   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:18pm  

Ben definately does delete posts that he disagrees with. I was just deleted a while ago.

Well, when I was posting as an anon in Ben's blog, someone thought I was a troll. And I was not possessed by Bull$hitter at that time.

265   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:27pm  

Well, I don't don't why Zephyr and Mr.Right/Wrong/Left would be deleted there. I thought we are already deleting more than we would like to. :roll:

266   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:38pm  

Anyway, Zephyr and Mr.Right/Wrong/Left, I am really glad that you guys are here. You add new dimensions to the discussions.

267   HARM   2005 Sep 22, 5:45pm  

@Prat & Surfer-X,

Thanks for chipping in, guys --really appreciate it. I'm going to be away for a month, so Peter, SactoQt will really need the help.

G'nite all...

268   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 5:54pm  

Nite Harm

Glad to hear from Prat (Yaaaa!)

Regarding immigrants, each time I drive through King City and see all those mofo’s picking whatever, I yell out the window “you sons o’bitches how dare you take jobs from amerikans”. Or alternatively “hola pendehos”

LMAO. It's good to have some humor amidst all these discussions about immigration. I think a lot of the comments are meant seriously, but sometimes it's hard to tell if there is veiled racism or if too much is being read into the remarks. Either way, we've all begun to take too many of the comments waaaaaaaaaaay to seriously. Thanks for lightening things up.

269   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 5:55pm  

Re: the deletions on Ben's blog.

I'm feeling a lot more tolerant right about now.

270   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 5:59pm  

I think a lot of the comments are meant seriously, but sometimes it’s hard to tell if there is veiled racism or if too much is being read into the remarks.

I do not think anyone is a racist. Most people here are very nice.

271   Peter P   2005 Sep 22, 6:00pm  

I’m feeling a lot more tolerant right about now.

Yes, indeed. Shouldn't we be proud for that?

Nite.

272   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 6:03pm  

I do not think anyone is a racist. Most people here are very nice.

Peter P

I still maintain you are the nicest person here. ;)
But you're right, most people are are very nice, and I am constantly amazed at how intelligent and well thought out most of the posts are.

273   OO   2005 Sep 22, 6:28pm  

Stanman,

I believe, regardless of whether you like it or not, the whole world is moving towards freer flow of capital AND labor. If you don't allow immigration, job will go. If you allow, job may go too. In a word, in highly desirable places, you need to EARN YOUR RIGHT to live here. The fact that your ancestors arrived a generation or two earlier than mine doesn't give you a necessary edge in your competing with your contemporary, unless your ancestors played their cards right, e.g. hoarding large number of land when they first arrived.

Stopping people from moving upwards for a better life is simply impossible. That desire to lift ourselves up will express in the form of immigration/emigration, job outsourcing/insourcing, capital flowing out/flowing in...The whole evolution of human being is about flattening all arbitrage opportunities and giving the best of our kind a fair chance to compete against each other. Life, will find a way.

So the best way for the native citizens who got lucky for being born to the right country or right family to keep their edge is, work hard to lift themselves. A native citizen whose skills can only be qualified for a job that can be fulfilled in China at 1/10 the cost will become obsolete no matter what. Any immigration control is just a temporary fix, if this land continues to be desirable, people will come, legally or illegally. And for my own sake, I hope they keep coming.

274   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 6:32pm  

Stanman

This ground has probably been covered before, so forgive me if I bring up something that's been discussed to death.

But isn't the argument for immigrant workers usually that they do jobs that native workers typically don't want? Or maybe it's more accurate to say that they are willing to work for wages that American's won't work for since they can get welfare that pays out more. As far as I know (and I may be wrong) illegal immigrants can't get welfare (though they probably can find a way to obtain it since they can get driver's licence's and health care) so they have to take low wage jobs.

275   SQT15   2005 Sep 22, 6:48pm  

Prop. 187 was meant to change some of this, but one lone federal judge threw it out as supposedly “unconstitutional.” He never was able to show what part of the 14th Amendment he was pretending to be referring to

Let me guess, 9th circuit judge? California can be ridiculous sometimes.

276   investwith6s   2005 Sep 22, 7:04pm  

Escaped from the District . . . With Kurt Russel ,

Stick around. I rather enjoy your posts since they fit my world view (which is neither Left or Right ... since they lie on the same corrupted body).

277   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 7:05pm  

Yes, the in-state tuition for illegal immigrants is unbelievable beyond words.

Regarding illegals doing work for lower pay as justification:
The premise is not good...and as per Stan's earlier post, it's mired in short-term thinking. The fact is, a balance of some sort will be achieved. Would we really pay $10 for a head of lettuce for eternity? No. Of course not. (Or maybe we would, but then we would gradually spend less & less on other things...like housing). More likely, there would be accelerated innovation...automation, etc., that could actually create other types of jobs (i.e. tech) thus buoying other sectors. No way of knowing for sure, though, right?...& when there is no way of knowing, it's best to just enforce the fn law.

278   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 7:11pm  

California illegal immigrant cost info:
http://www.fairus.org/site/PageServer?pagename=iic_immigrationissuecentersffec
There is a link to a 19 page .pdf file that includes references for data ( no, haven't read it).
I don't know anything abou this website...just found thru ggl.

279   OO   2005 Sep 22, 7:21pm  

Stanman,

don't get me wrong, I am for immigration control, take away all the privileges currently available to all illegal immigrants, or cut down drastically on the quota of H1B, or raise the bar for labor certification, raise the financial hurdle for family reunion. I am fine with these measures because they don't affect me a single bit. But what I want to say is, this won't work in the long term. Control imposed by human beings can only go so far.

When you close the door, jobs will simply leave. Jobs will always go to harder working, smarter people, no matter where they are. How many native citizens are able to obtain PhDs in scientific disciplines? How many native citizens are able to get off their fat ass and put in some hard work, instead of running up massive insulin injection bills cos' they are hooked on McDonald's? How long do you think US consumers can pull credit from their inflated home equity to support their unjustifiably excessive lifestyle? The American moral of hardworking and frugality was long gone before the recent immigrants arrived. It was the immigrants who are still hardworking and saving hard to realize their American dreams.

Immigrants or transplants simply work harder because they have nothing to fall back on. If the illegal immigrants can make a living by taking the minimum wages, why can't the Americans? If the native citizens find the ag jobs too low for them, perhaps one day all our food will be grown in Mexico. Even a lordship's estate gets diluted several generations down, you can't expect any native citizen to naturally assume that simply because his great-great-grandpa came here in the 1700s, he is more entitled to enjoy a better lifestyle than all other human beings. America is about, what have you done for yourself, for me, lately?

America needs a big recession because we have been lazy, incompetent as a national for a while, and the past laurels that this country's great founders and ancestors collected had gone through the last mile, we need some new ones, NOW. This country currently lacks leadership, vision and motivation, immigration is just a minor issue compared to the above. Confident Americans should never be afraid of competition, a true winner should thrive on competition. Perhaps native citizens have lost that fighting spirit, and that's exactly why we need hungry, smart, willing-to-risk-it-all immigrants to carry this country further.

280   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 7:29pm  

Ownerocc,
Many of your arguments work so nicely for anti-illegal immigration...and once again, nobody here has a problem with LEGAL immigration. If suddenly there are no illegal immigrants to work the hard work...the long days, etc...the things to which you allude. Here in California, that would lead to some tough times...recession??? People WILL have to look for some kind of work. Shit, can you imagine today's spoiled college kids going to work in the fields of the central valley to earn a few bucks for the upcoming school year? I can't either; but if times get desperate enough...i'd wager it would happen. It's happened before: I had an instructor once in a Comm. Coll. course who, in the early '60's, worked his ass off picking apples in washington to help pay for undergrad tuition. Kind of like college kids who, more recently, would go to Alaska to work the fishing boats.

281   investwith6s   2005 Sep 22, 7:34pm  

Social Effects of Bubble:

1) Divorce (Actually have read anecdotal stories on craigslist about divorces happening because a husband didn't want to buy into this hype ... but the reality is many more divorces will happen in the fallout of this RE bubble ... financial stress is a major factor in divorce, i.e., blaming ones partner for bad decisions). Divorce has many affects on the childeren of divorce but will not be felt for many years later.

2) Vice is not Nice. Vice funds should do well (although I will never invest in one). People like distractions from reality and reality is going to suck for many in this credit deflation. I see social and moral entropy ... not across the board since some people will reflect on their decisions and awaken but many will seek distractions that will lead to their further downfall.

3) A minority of debtors (see 2) will strengthen themselves and become better for it. Struggle makes strength.

4) More Government and Taxes. If you rob Peter to Pay Paul you can always count on Paul's vote. I think we will tilt more socialistic since many voters will demand government to ease their suffering (suffering that is deserved in many cases such as speculator greed ... but I feel empathy to those that bought out of fear of being priced out, no matter how misguided they were).

5) Our illegals will be able to afford houses that are subsidized by the current housing debtors (and through Amnesty will be gifted with citizenship). This will further divide our country (divide and conquer is the moto -- I believe the death of the Constitution is the goal -- but I hate typing and it would take way to long to state my case).

282   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 7:43pm  

investwith,
Sadly I agree with your point #4; and it relates to a big gripe of mine: more and more, when we as a society screw up, we look to government for the solution...rather than collective societal introspection. I think it relates to a social psychology that is increasingly based on external (vs. internal) locus of control (some psycho-babble terms I just heard about...google it--it's kind of interesting).

283   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 7:56pm  

"Also, in an economic way, socialism can make sense to many. For instance, “taxes for the rich” are a constant success because few people fall into that rich category. As long as the poor and middle class outnumber the rich, there will always be political advantage to proposing to tax the rich and redistribute to others."

It's sad because it reflects that these people either (a) are only concerned with short-term affects on themselves (as opposed to general economic/societal well-being of America) and/or (b) they don't have any hope that some day they, or their children/grandchildren, will be the ones shouldering this increased burden.

284   investwith6s   2005 Sep 22, 8:02pm  

SJ_Jim,

You're right on the no societal introspection. Many people are afraid to look inside of themselves out of fear that they may be wrong and have to change. Change can be painful, but only those who have love for the truth will bear down and accept the truth ... and change. Most will take the path of least resistance and look externally for blame. Winston Churchill once said...

"Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing ever happened."

"we look to government for the solution…"

So true.

I think people want to be lead because it is a lot of work to be the leader. Personally, I cut my own path through this world. I don't care what people think of me but most people who know me like me ... only because I love my neighbor and sincerely watch out for those who are foolish (I don't believe in the kind of gain that relishes in 'stupid' money passing into the hands of 'smart' money)

285   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 8:12pm  

Stan, agreed; didn't mean to sound too naive and overly enamored with the "american way"...or whatever. I'm pretty well aware that there is overly gratuitous tax structure for extremely rich...which I would consider a long-time (how long?) shame for this nation.
Hey, going to bed. It was good to exchange thoughts. G'nite all.

286   SJ_jim   2005 Sep 22, 8:18pm  

Hey anyone dig astronomy? Just looked up and saw the moon, the pleiades star cluster, and mars arranged in a nice bilateral triangle. Pretty cool. g'nite again.

287   SQT15   2005 Sep 23, 1:09am  

‹^›_‹(ô¿ô)›_‹^›

288   SQT15   2005 Sep 23, 1:20am  

The scary thing about the doom-and-gloom prediction is that it could happen. A lot of parallel's have been drawn between the great depression and now. Low savings rate, credit bubble, RE speculation and so on. Does this mean we're in for another big depression? _shrug_
I sure hope not.

Maybe we should focus on what's different now to see if a similar depression is realistically possible. I'm not as economically savvy as a lot of posters so I'd need input from elsewhere to make the comparisons. But we didn't have FDIC insurance before the great depression. Will that make a difference? It should, but would it be enough? I'm afraid I have more questions than answers. Does anyone else have thoughts on this? Maybe a new thread possibilty?

289   KurtS   2005 Sep 23, 1:26am  

Holy ____! Look at the size of this thing! Where do I begin?

"I was remembering something more in the neighborhood of cutting the line….
(still completely reasonable though! IMHO) (and in this particular case) "

Jack--
More of a joke than a real threat--although I felt the urge, and if an animal needs a mercy killing, I'm willing to obligue.

290   Randy H   2005 Sep 23, 1:36am  

the reason American farmers have not invested in the capital is that the have the cheap labor.

Just for clarification, between 1948 and 1996 US agricultural productivity, as measured by inputs-to-outputs capital efficiency, increased by 250%. During that same period most European agriculture (excluding small, insignificant producers which usually have high productivity but low output), increased by less than 100%. I couldn't find Austrialian data for this same exact period, but from 1960 to 2000 Austrialian productivity rose by less than 100%, so unless Australia grew productivity astronomically between 1948 and 1960, they lag far behind US efficiency.

In the King & King International economic policy report they cite overly strong US agricultural productivity as being the primary reason that developing nations seek 1-way trade barriers on agricultural goods. Simply, if the US agricultural output was turned loose on the global markets it would destroy prices for Europe and most of the developing world.

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