patrick.net

Logan Mohtashami says

Nazi = don't read

"The obvious problem with this thesis is that builders are not building starter homes."

joeyjojojunior says

And to your other point--even if new houses are built at higher price points, it will still drive down prices of all houses. As the more expensive houses sit empty, they will have to drop prices. This will force existing houses to drop price to compete with the new houses. Etc, etc.

I think you're the one who doesn't read.

And, are you implying that PhD's in Economics are attending these conferences to listen to you?? You're killing me.

joeyjojojunior says

I think you're the one who doesn't read.

This is a perfect statement by you! joeyjojojunior says

This will force existing houses to drop price to compete with the new houses. Etc, etc.

Existing homes have always had a discounted price compared to new homes, always

Build bigger and bigger homes always, 2,500 median sq 2016 vs old homes, the gap gets bigger

Sales uses to be 6-1 ratio and in this cycle E homes sales to New home, gap much much wider

No need for special lists: one letter D next to a name on the ballot is enough to not vote for the fuck.

Logan--

Stop--you're digging a bigger and bigger hole with every post. Of course existing houses typically sell at a discount to new houses. Everyone knows this. It is irrelevant to the topic at hand. More new houses will drive down the price of houses at the new house price and all lower price points as well. Do you really not understand that?

joeyjojojunior says

PhD's in Economics are attending these conferences to listen to you?? You're killing me.

For example chief economist Mark Fleming and I spoke on two panels.

Master of Science, Agricultural Economics

Ph.D, Agricultural Economics

Bachelor of Arts, Economics

You can look him up as well at the other economist for all the housing shops around the country

and then there is you ...

The expert of everything and your name is
Logan Mohtashami says

joeyjojojunior

Tsk Tsk

Logan Mohtashami says

Americans never had it so good. You won't find this kind of sq footage to be normal anywhere in the world.
USA USA World's greatest country.

Logan Mohtashami says

For example chief economist Mark Fleming and I spoke on two panels.

He wasn't attending the conference to listen to you. He was there to speak.

joeyjojojunior says

He wasn't attending the conference to listen to you. He was there to speak.

Yes, and he spoke on only 2 panels the same ones I did. The rest we where in attendance with everyone else ... I can give you a big list of everyone there

Then there is you ....

Deflation lady, because of your cousins? right? Amanda Perry... who is Amanda Perry, not your name, but it's the same person

I am head panel speaker with economist Dr. John Husing PHD at the CAR conference coming up at the end of the month

and then there is you?

JOEY JO JO Junior

Leonard Kiefer, Ph.D. another one that I mix with head economist at Freddie Mac

and then there is you

JOEY JO JO Junior

Mrs. Deflation...

Deflation Deflation Deflation ... the lovely theme of the extreme left wing of this society ...

Great--do you understand that increasing inventories leads to lower prices now?

joeyjojojunior says

Great--do you understand that increasing inventories leads to lower prices now?

NAZI don't read ... Model is very simply you need 6 months inventory plus to get pricing to go down just like we saw from 2006-2011.. but that isn't what I was even talking about

You create false narratives, this works only on rookies not on someone who speaks to PHD's all the time ....

But who am I... I am a nobody, just a little loan officer with a degree in history

I have no idea why these people would ever chat me up... None what so ever

You're the Queen my lady, I am humble before the breath of God

So, is that a yes or no? Do you understand that increasing supply will lead to lower prices?

It's an important concept that you need to understand.

joeyjojojunior says

So, is that a yes or no? That increasing supply will lead to lower prices?

If the chart wasn't transparent ... then I speak no English

The chart doesn't answer the question at all. Will increasing supply lead to lower prices? Really to be precise, I should state that increasing supply will lead to lower prices (than what would have existed absent the increased supply)

joeyjojojunior says

Really to be precise

If the chart wasn't transparent I speak no English My lady..

joeyjojojunior says

Really to be precise, I should state that increasing supply will lead to lower prices (than what would have existed absent the increased supply)

You really want to state...increasing supply will lead to lower prices (other things being equal)
The answer is yes, it will lead to lower prices.

Reading can be a good thing

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/31/2017-housing-economic-predictions/

2. Home Prices

Home prices still have legs to go higher in 2017. This is due more to supply then demand.This cycle has demonstrated that you don’t need strong demand for home prices to rise. Millions of people buy homes every year and this cycle has had the weakest demand with the lowest interest rates ever. But home prices continue to rise due to low inventory. For many years I have been stressing that the U.S.housing market doesn’t “naturally” support 6 months of inventory. This has been true of the market since post- 1996 outside the housing bust years of 2006-2011. With this in mind, home prices should continue to rise until a job loss recession. I predict growth of 1%-4% in home prices for 2017.

Remember, inventory fell in 2016 and home sales still hit a cycle high. Higher home prices did not bring more inventory into the market, a lot owners still did not have enough equity to move up. We also have millions of rental housing and booming rental demand still keeping those homes in a rental status. Don’t look for inventory to move too much either way because housing affordability issues are keeping both would-be buyers and sellers where they are. The tenure of living in the same home hit another all time high in 2016.

Strategist says

You really want to state...increasing supply will lead to lower prices (other things being equal)

The answer is yes, it will lead to lower prices.

No, I think mine states it better

Logan Mohtashami says

If the chart wasn't transparent I speak no English My lady..

The chart was both transparent and irrelevant. I'm going to assume this means, once again, that you don't know the basics of supply and demand. In all honesty, a 16 yr. old that has taken one semester of high school level Economics is more knowledgeable in the subject than you.

Logan Mohtashami says

I predict growth of 1%-4% in home prices for 2017.

What about So Cal and OC? I'm expecting double digit price increases for 2017.

joeyjojojunior says

Economics is more knowledgeable regarding Econ than you.

clap clap clap .....

Getting warmer .... come on you're almost there

Logan Mohtashami says

clap clap clap .....

Getting warmer .... come on you're almost there

I thought I was there. You think middle schoolers are smarter as well?

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

You really want to state...increasing supply will lead to lower prices (other things being equal)


The answer is yes, it will lead to lower prices.

No, I think mine states it better

There are lots of variables that impact the eventual outcome. Holding one constant, and ignoring the others won't cut it.
"Other things being equal" is the correct phrase to be used.

joeyjojojunior says

I thought I was there. You think middle schoolers are smarter as well?

Now that I have you here...

Post 1996.. when home prices have deviated from historical norms... the only time we had 6 months inventory was due to a recession and mostly due to distress inventory investor increasing.. Feb 2006 was the first 6 month print a time where 40% of purchases were investors.. peak of the housing bubble madness..

20 years of data and 3 economic cycles

Logan Mohtashami says

Now that I have you here...

Post 1996.. when home prices have deviated from historical norms... the only time we had 6 months inventory was due to a recession and mostly due to distress inventory investor increasing.. Feb 2006 was the first 6 month print a time where 40% of purchases were investors.. peak of the housing bubble madness..

20 years of data and 3 economic cycles

Uh, OK. Do you have a point?

The reason why the PHD's ask is because this is something I have brought up to them before and the 2016 data line proved my thesis to be correct

Sales hit a cycle high, due to mortgage demand hitting cycle highs, mortgage demand back to 1998 levels per the MBA data line

Strategist says

There are lots of variables that impact the eventual outcome. Holding one constant, and ignoring the others won't cut it.

"Other things being equal" is the correct phrase to be used.

Yep--I wasn't holding one constant. I was saying that price with increased inventory will be lower than price without increased inventory. Regardless of what all the other variables do.

Logan Mohtashami says

The reason why the PHD's ask is because this is something I have brought up to them before and the 2016 data line proved my thesis to be correct

Sales hit cycles high, due to mortgage demand hitting cycle highs, mortgage demand back to 1998 levels per the MBA data line

Again. So what? It has nothing to do with our discussion.

Logan Mohtashami says

mortgage demand hitting cycle highs

Wait

This doesn't fit into the deflation thesis does it.. I mean how can the young buy homes if they're broke?

joeyjojojunior says

Again. So what? It has nothing to do with our discussion.

It has everything to do with the conversation... but then again, I speak to PHD's who find it interesting and you... Miss Expert... Miss I know it all... Miss Deflation ......

can't even put the pieces together yet

It's ok....

Logan Mohtashami says

Wait

This doesn't fit into the deflation thesis does it.. I mean how can the young buy homes if they're broke?

I see. You're trying to change the subject.

Before you do, let's put this one to bed. Do you understand that you are wrong that increasing supply will absolutely lead to lower prices than would have been present without the increased supply

joeyjojojunior says

Do you understand that you are wrong that increasing supply will absolutely lead to lower prices than would have been present without the increased supply

Again my chart if it wasn't transparent enough ... let me add another one to it

But who are we... we are just idiots at conferences ... some with PHD's

So, no you don't understand then? It helps if you actually use written words to state your opinion.

I can't imagine that some of the other speakers appreciate you lumping yourself in with them as if you are peers.

joeyjojojunior says

I can't imagine that some of the other speakers appreciate you lumping yourself in with them as if you are peers.

:-)

It's so easy being a troll, hiding behind that fake name, trying to create a false narrative ....

Some of us don't have that luxury... we have to provide data with our talks

Then again all you do is cry about America all day long

You're Amanda Perry .... Miss Deflation

I am just a guy with charts

I see. It's time to change the subject again?

joeyjojojunior says

I see. It's time to change the subject again?

same subject always

You cry about deflation, you create false narratives with no data, this is what you do... and you hide behind that fake name

I can't do that, I actually talk to real people, I have to provide data at these events ...

Difference between those who can show the truth and those who think they're big talkers

That is why people like you will always hide in the shadows ... you could never have this discussion in the open...

Sure seems like you're changing the subject. It was a simple question--do you understand that increasing supply will lead to lower prices than would have existed absent the increased supply?

Can you answer that simple question? Either a yes, or a no. Feel free to post as many charts as you'd like, but just make sure you being with a "yes" or a "no"

joeyjojojunior says

but just make sure you being with a "yes" or a "no"

Difference between someone who hides behind a fake name

and then someone who talks to economist who have PHD's

We ... only live with our data and why I love to fight the Anti American bearish trolls, is that they hate facts and data

So I shall leave you with these... the same ones that I run with with economist, data analyst but this isn't for those who have no face or name

Logan Mohtashami says

Difference between someone who hides behind a fake name

and then someone who talks to economist who have PHD's

We ... only live with our data and why I love to fight the Anti American bearish trolls, is that they hate facts and data

So I shall leave you with these... the same ones that I run with with economist, data analyst but this isn't for those who have no face or name

No, Economists with PhD's present an opinion and then use charts and data to support it. You simply post a bunch of charts with no explanation, theory, or opinion. You're basically a chart monkey. No Economist worth anything would ever post like you.