patrick.net

joeyjojojunior says

Really to be precise, I should state that increasing supply will lead to lower prices (than what would have existed absent the increased supply)

You really want to state...increasing supply will lead to lower prices (other things being equal)
The answer is yes, it will lead to lower prices.

Reading can be a good thing

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/12/31/2017-housing-economic-predictions/

2. Home Prices

Home prices still have legs to go higher in 2017. This is due more to supply then demand.This cycle has demonstrated that you don’t need strong demand for home prices to rise. Millions of people buy homes every year and this cycle has had the weakest demand with the lowest interest rates ever. But home prices continue to rise due to low inventory. For many years I have been stressing that the U.S.housing market doesn’t “naturally” support 6 months of inventory. This has been true of the market since post- 1996 outside the housing bust years of 2006-2011. With this in mind, home prices should continue to rise until a job loss recession. I predict growth of 1%-4% in home prices for 2017.

Remember, inventory fell in 2016 and home sales still hit a cycle high. Higher home prices did not bring more inventory into the market, a lot owners still did not have enough equity to move up. We also have millions of rental housing and booming rental demand still keeping those homes in a rental status. Don’t look for inventory to move too much either way because housing affordability issues are keeping both would-be buyers and sellers where they are. The tenure of living in the same home hit another all time high in 2016.

Strategist says

You really want to state...increasing supply will lead to lower prices (other things being equal)

The answer is yes, it will lead to lower prices.

No, I think mine states it better

Logan Mohtashami says

If the chart wasn't transparent I speak no English My lady..

The chart was both transparent and irrelevant. I'm going to assume this means, once again, that you don't know the basics of supply and demand. In all honesty, a 16 yr. old that has taken one semester of high school level Economics is more knowledgeable in the subject than you.

Logan Mohtashami says

I predict growth of 1%-4% in home prices for 2017.

What about So Cal and OC? I'm expecting double digit price increases for 2017.

joeyjojojunior says

Economics is more knowledgeable regarding Econ than you.

clap clap clap .....

Getting warmer .... come on you're almost there

Logan Mohtashami says

clap clap clap .....

Getting warmer .... come on you're almost there

I thought I was there. You think middle schoolers are smarter as well?

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

You really want to state...increasing supply will lead to lower prices (other things being equal)


The answer is yes, it will lead to lower prices.

No, I think mine states it better

There are lots of variables that impact the eventual outcome. Holding one constant, and ignoring the others won't cut it.
"Other things being equal" is the correct phrase to be used.

joeyjojojunior says

I thought I was there. You think middle schoolers are smarter as well?

Now that I have you here...

Post 1996.. when home prices have deviated from historical norms... the only time we had 6 months inventory was due to a recession and mostly due to distress inventory investor increasing.. Feb 2006 was the first 6 month print a time where 40% of purchases were investors.. peak of the housing bubble madness..

20 years of data and 3 economic cycles

Logan Mohtashami says

Now that I have you here...

Post 1996.. when home prices have deviated from historical norms... the only time we had 6 months inventory was due to a recession and mostly due to distress inventory investor increasing.. Feb 2006 was the first 6 month print a time where 40% of purchases were investors.. peak of the housing bubble madness..

20 years of data and 3 economic cycles

Uh, OK. Do you have a point?

The reason why the PHD's ask is because this is something I have brought up to them before and the 2016 data line proved my thesis to be correct

Sales hit a cycle high, due to mortgage demand hitting cycle highs, mortgage demand back to 1998 levels per the MBA data line

Strategist says

There are lots of variables that impact the eventual outcome. Holding one constant, and ignoring the others won't cut it.

"Other things being equal" is the correct phrase to be used.

Yep--I wasn't holding one constant. I was saying that price with increased inventory will be lower than price without increased inventory. Regardless of what all the other variables do.

Logan Mohtashami says

The reason why the PHD's ask is because this is something I have brought up to them before and the 2016 data line proved my thesis to be correct

Sales hit cycles high, due to mortgage demand hitting cycle highs, mortgage demand back to 1998 levels per the MBA data line

Again. So what? It has nothing to do with our discussion.

Logan Mohtashami says

mortgage demand hitting cycle highs

Wait

This doesn't fit into the deflation thesis does it.. I mean how can the young buy homes if they're broke?

joeyjojojunior says

Again. So what? It has nothing to do with our discussion.

It has everything to do with the conversation... but then again, I speak to PHD's who find it interesting and you... Miss Expert... Miss I know it all... Miss Deflation ......

can't even put the pieces together yet

It's ok....

Logan Mohtashami says

Wait

This doesn't fit into the deflation thesis does it.. I mean how can the young buy homes if they're broke?

I see. You're trying to change the subject.

Before you do, let's put this one to bed. Do you understand that you are wrong that increasing supply will absolutely lead to lower prices than would have been present without the increased supply

joeyjojojunior says

Do you understand that you are wrong that increasing supply will absolutely lead to lower prices than would have been present without the increased supply

Again my chart if it wasn't transparent enough ... let me add another one to it

But who are we... we are just idiots at conferences ... some with PHD's

So, no you don't understand then? It helps if you actually use written words to state your opinion.

I can't imagine that some of the other speakers appreciate you lumping yourself in with them as if you are peers.

joeyjojojunior says

I can't imagine that some of the other speakers appreciate you lumping yourself in with them as if you are peers.

:-)

It's so easy being a troll, hiding behind that fake name, trying to create a false narrative ....

Some of us don't have that luxury... we have to provide data with our talks

Then again all you do is cry about America all day long

You're Amanda Perry .... Miss Deflation

I am just a guy with charts

I see. It's time to change the subject again?

joeyjojojunior says

I see. It's time to change the subject again?

same subject always

You cry about deflation, you create false narratives with no data, this is what you do... and you hide behind that fake name

I can't do that, I actually talk to real people, I have to provide data at these events ...

Difference between those who can show the truth and those who think they're big talkers

That is why people like you will always hide in the shadows ... you could never have this discussion in the open...

Sure seems like you're changing the subject. It was a simple question--do you understand that increasing supply will lead to lower prices than would have existed absent the increased supply?

Can you answer that simple question? Either a yes, or a no. Feel free to post as many charts as you'd like, but just make sure you being with a "yes" or a "no"

joeyjojojunior says

but just make sure you being with a "yes" or a "no"

Difference between someone who hides behind a fake name

and then someone who talks to economist who have PHD's

We ... only live with our data and why I love to fight the Anti American bearish trolls, is that they hate facts and data

So I shall leave you with these... the same ones that I run with with economist, data analyst but this isn't for those who have no face or name

Logan Mohtashami says

Difference between someone who hides behind a fake name

and then someone who talks to economist who have PHD's

We ... only live with our data and why I love to fight the Anti American bearish trolls, is that they hate facts and data

So I shall leave you with these... the same ones that I run with with economist, data analyst but this isn't for those who have no face or name

No, Economists with PhD's present an opinion and then use charts and data to support it. You simply post a bunch of charts with no explanation, theory, or opinion. You're basically a chart monkey. No Economist worth anything would ever post like you.

Logan Mohtashami says

but just make sure you being with a "yes" or a "no"

Vs

It's not my fault you don't care about the national housing data.. hence why no PHD will ever ask your view on housing

And again, you can't answer the question. I guarantee you that a PhD in Economics wouldn't be afraid to answer such a simple question.

joeyjojojunior says

And again, you can't answer the question. I guarantee you that a PhD in Economics wouldn't be afraid to answer such a simple question.

Mrs. the data charts answered the question 10X over ... this is your false narrative, this is why you hide behind your many fake names...

This is why you cry about deflation everyday

This is why your Anti American Deflationary thesis non sense is simple paranoia

You're Amanda Perry ( Deflation, Deflation, Deflation)

Why no one will ever ask you to speak about economics, you don't believe in data, charts or numbers, prime driver of troll talk....

Logan Mohtashami says

Mrs. the data charts answered the question 10X over

OK--then please post the answer and explain how the charts support your answer. That's how we do it in the real world.

joeyjojojunior says

OK--then please post the answer and explain how the charts support your answer. That's how we do it in the real world.

I did, your lack of a economic background shows, and the fact that you're still talking is why I use you and Pat.net as examples.

Don't listen to Trolls who hide behind fake names who talk without data

They just talk... your data should provide the answer clearly

But.. you never provide any

Keep on talking... that's always the trick with the Anti American bears on Pat.net ... keep them talking long enough

I do have to say, my facebook followers all love your comments... I mean the entertainment value .. is nice... but the economic discussion

whistle

Logan Mohtashami says

I did

Great--please tell me which post# that was, I'm assuming it starts with a "yes, I agree" or a "no, here's why you're wrong" and then contains some charts or data to back up your initial response. Right?

joeyjojojunior says

Great--please tell me which post# that was, I'm assuming it starts with a "yes, I agree" or a "no, here's why you're wrong" and then contains some charts or data to back up your initial response. Right?

Nope....

Pumpkin I not only explained in words I even provided 20 years of data to prove what I said ... you just don't care about data, you never did

Keep on talking .... you're one my best examples why extreme liberals are as just as bad extreme conservatives

Logan Mohtashami says

Nope....

Pumpkin I not only explained in words I even provided 20 years of data to prove what I said ... you just don't care about data, you never did

Great--which post number was that?

joeyjojojunior says

Great--which post number was that?

Reading is good

Go back up and read

Look I even provided charts for you... with color too

Logan Mohtashami says

Reading is good

Go back up and read

Look I even provided charts for you... with color too

I've read them all. I see no such post which is why I'm asking you for clarification. Should be simple for you to just provide a post#.

joeyjojojunior says

I've read them all. I see no such post which is why I'm asking you for clarification. Should be simple for you to just provide a post#.

If you can't understand 20 years of housing data.. I am afraid you will never understand

This is the life of Anti American Deflationary Troll who bad talks America every day ...

Logan Mohtashami says

If you can't understand 20 years of housing data.. I am afraid you will never understand

This is the life of Anti American Deflationary Troll who bad talks America every day ...

Great. What's the post#?

joeyjojojunior says

Great. What's the post#?

Go read them.... many posts..

Reading is a good thing... understand charts is a good thing ... even for Anti American Trolls who bad mouth their country every day

Logan Mohtashami says

Go read them.... many posts

I read them all. In none of them do you answer the question then provide supporting charts.

Please prove me wrong by providing the post#