patrick.net

YesYNot says

Science is settled by theory and experiment. It is not settled by debate. Debate is just what you have before science is settled, before people become aware of the speed science, and to a lesser extent when some new evidence comes along that seems to contradict known theories. Occasionally it does contradict and change things, but usually it just needs an explanation.

Real science is never settled. Science always leave a room for skepticism, otherwise its religion not science.

The assuredness w which climate activists state ridiculous predictions (An Inconvenient Truth) is religion. Its usually an expression of faith, not science.

For those of you who have researched this, please recommend an intellectually honest reading list.

CBOEtrader says

For those of you who have researched this, please recommend an intellectually honest reading list.

Start with the IPCC report. Follow the references. Draw your own conclusions.

As for settled science, settled is a relative term. Things settle. Sometimes, they get disrupted. You can say that the theory of gravity is not settled. It's quite possible that someone will come along with another theory that puts gravity inside a larger theory. It's often possible that what works fine within some wide set of conditions (Newtonian physics) cannot be extrapolated. That doesn't mean that Newtonian physics is proved wrong. If we get into distracted about the meaning of settled and set a really high bar for something being settled, that is meaningless. What we should focus on is quantifying risk.

When most scientists state that parts of climate change theory are settled, that does not mean that they know what the temperature is going to be next year with a high degree of accuracy. It also doesn't mean that they can predict what the temperature is going to be in 50 years. It means that they can run various scenarios and determine within a given range what the average temperature is likely to be (by average I mean global average temperature over a 10 year period). If you want to see the scenarios (how much pollution we emit going forward) that are being used, and the estimates of global average temperature and risk, look at the IPCC reports.

CBOEtrader says

which climate activists state ridiculous predictions (An Inconvenient Truth) is religion

Like many 'documentary' films, an inconvenient truth was a heavily narrative laden movie by an activist. If you want to say that the scientists had it wrong, go look at what the scientists said. Don't refute part of a movie by an activist and claim that the science was wrong. That's just tragically bad logic. Here is a quote from the first page of the executive summary of the first IPCC report:

Based on current model results, we predict:
* under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A)
emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of
*global mean temperature during the next century of
about 0.3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of
0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade), this is greater than that
seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a
likely increase in global mean temperature of about
1°C above the present value by 2025 and 3°C before
the end of the next century The rise will not be
steady because of the influence of other factors

Note that even back in 1990, the IPCC report was pretty accurate. They didn't know how fast China's or India's economy would grow. They had to predict what fossil fuel emissions would be as well as how the earth's climate would respond. They stated right up front that the rise would not be steady (there is a high noise to signal ratio). How did they do?

https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf

Tell your friends and family, come to Patrick.net. Where you will be beaten into submission by stupidity and negativity! It's highly contagious 😷

What we should focus on is quantifying risk.

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The lost Art of a once great Capitalist Nation. nowadays people just buy more insurance and oddly bitch about taxes, regardless of how terrible a deal it is, and defer that which made them Capitalist in the first place. As evidenced here over and over, the education system needs to teach people how to do a cost benefit analysis, because they've lost that skill over time.

Democrat leadership baffled as massive number of voters leave the party.

YesYNot says

What we should focus on is quantifying risk.

That would make too much sense. We need to debate the risk. If the 97% of climate scientists are wrong, maybe there is no risk.

Funny, a bank or clearing firms risk manager would get fired instantly for such stupid rationalizations (unless it was the risk that his boss was taking on that he argued was debatable).

marcus says

YesYNot says

What we should focus on is quantifying risk.

That would make too much sense. We need to debate the risk. If the 97% of climate scientists are wrong, maybe there is no risk.

Funny, a bank or clearing firms risk manager would get fired instantly for just stupid rationalizations (unless it was the risk that his boss was taking on that he argued was debatable).

We need to start only listening to people with skin in the game

joeyjojojunior says

Great-please show me the difference. With data and analysis.

Do your own research, troll!

www.youtube.com/embed/y2R3FvS4xr4

Quigley says

Do your own research, troll!

No money from Mexico.
No Wall.
No Ghina currency manipulator.
No 35% tariff.
No Repeal.
No Replace.
NATO was obsolete,now it's not.
Russia's great,now it's not.

Stupid people believe LIES.

"Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh lamented Tuesday that President Donald Trump is “caving” to Democrats,"

"..it looks like President Trump is caving on his demand for a measly $1 billion in the budget for his wall on the border with Mexico.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/04/25/rush-limbaugh-donald-trump-border-wall-237594

And the Goldman Sachs SWAMP?

HEY YOU says

"Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh lamented Tuesday that President Donald Trump is “caving” to Democrats,"

"..it looks like President Trump is caving on his demand for a measly $1 billion in the budget for his wall on the border with Mexico.”

Why aren't you happy? Isn't that what you want?

Hater says

Does anyone know what the ideal temp and co2 percentage is for human life.

This is a bullshit argument that if a precise optimal CO2 level cannot be agreed upon, then we should allow pollution to go unchecked, climate change to run rampant, and countless residences and businesses to be destroyed by rising sea-level.

What makes climate change bad is
1. It's happening damn fast.
2. It's completely uncontrolled.
3. We aren't prepared for it.
4. It threatens the very places where 100 million Americans live and work.

Humans could live with the entire east and west coast states destroyed, but it's not in our economic interest to lose all that real estate, infrastructure, and commerce. It's just bad economics.

Hater says

You can say that CO2 will cause all the ice to melt and the world will become an unlivable sauna, but that does not make it true.

Great. We agree on something, so we are making progress.

Do you agree that the important task is to quantify risk for different CO2ppm scenarios and then make decisions based on that risk?

YesYNot says

Do you agree that the important task is to quantify risk for different CO2ppm scenarios and then make decisions based on that risk?

No. You cannot make good decisions from bad models.

We should tell people they are on their own and let them make their own decisions. If they still want to buy coastal properties it is their own choice. Those who believe their country will be uninhabitable in the future should look for alternative citizenships now.

There is a HUGE gap between "the world is warming up" and "there is a reliable risk model for CO2 scenarios."

Hater says

Dan got so triggered

Translation: Hatred could not produce a single sensible argument to support his case, so he's labeling Dan as a leftist SJW in an attempt to poison the well.

This is par for the course.

Anyone who would compare me to the leftist SJWs is a fool given everything I've written about the conservative left, SJWs, triggering, and political correctness. It's like calling Martin Luther King, Jr. a violent psychopath.

Peter P says

No. You cannot make good decisions from bad models.

You seem to have determined that climate models are bad. Did you use any specific criteria to make that determination?

Hater says

Science is not settled by consensus. It is settled by debate, experiment, and facts.

It is not the consensus of scientists that has settled the question of climate change. It is the consensus of evidence. And that consensus of evidence is demonstrated by the 99% of peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change that confirm man-made climate change and openly provide the physical evidence, physical evidence that can and is independently confirmed by scientists around the world. This level of collaboration of evidence simply cannot be faked. A single false incident would be exposed.

www.youtube.com/embed/QIubkvNT4Bo

Bonus videos
www.youtube.com/embed/plReQcO6sz0

www.youtube.com/embed/6VUPIX7yEOM

How much is 107k views worth?

Hater says

You can say that CO2 will cause all the ice to melt and the world will become an unlivable sauna, but that does not make it true.

Another straw man argument. People aren't saying you are going to sweat your balls because of climate change. People are saying that Florida and New York City will be underwater. And already we see that happening.

www.youtube.com/embed/raNel0Or5uY

www.youtube.com/embed/yAKZaQkWSIo

www.youtube.com/embed/-JbzypWJk64

If you say that losing Miami is OK, I say fuck you. You don't get to say that the cities I love, live in, and work in are acceptable casualties just so some rich, lazy fuck can have a third yacht. Fuck that.

If you think that it's OK for a hundred million Americans to loser their wealth and possessions to rising sea-levels, then let's start with you. Let all the climate change deniers lose their possessions through state seizure so that the victims of rising sea-levels will have houses to move into when theirs are flooded. If you aren't willing to put your money where your mouth is, you don't get to demand we pay the bill for climate change.

It was just the obvious context your words implied. Perhaps if you'd prefaced that statement with some other character failing of Ironman, the "also" would have been clearly an addenda to that list, and not a tacit admission of group ownership. Careful there!
If you're not a shill, don't admit to being one!

So go there again tomorrow and video the violence on display at Ann Coulter's speech in the Free Speech Zone. Maybe you'll get something really good!

Edit: don't take your wife. Probably dangerous.

I believe that she has cancelled her appearance. For once, Berkeley College Republicans came to their senses.

OK, let's say that in 100 years, sea levels have risen two feet.

Hell, the tide varies more than that in San Francisco twice a day. Sure, it could be a problem, but that level of sea rise not the end of the world by a long shot.

Make sure to wear all your Trump gear, liberals are very progressive thinking and not only tolerate ideologic diversity they fucking love it.

Hater says

Did I get it right.

Scientists would not label CO2 as evil. It's just known that we have hugely increased the quantity of it in the atmosphere and that CO2 warms the planet. Science also tells us approximately how much this extra CO2 is warming the planet, melting water, and increase sea levels. You got that part correct. Scientists don't use terms like salvation of the planet, and the don't prescribe specific solutions. They provide expected outcomes and the risks of those outcomes. They provide costs for mitigation of those outcomes. They also provide options for avoiding those outcomes. Currently those options do include alternative energies and conservation.

There is no evil or salvation involved.

This is what Reagan did when he was California governor:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/this-is-how-ronald-reagan-dealt-with-uc-berkeley-protestors-in-1969/
www.youtube.com/embed/Bpg0UfpuUAs

Dan8267 says

Buy yourself a drone with a camera and fly it over the protest. Best of all, the assholes can't stop you

I wonder if the drone would survive.

Hater says

no.

How do you suggest we make decisions if not based on science?

rando says

Hell, the tide varies more than that in San Francisco twice a day. Sure, it could be a problem, but that level of sea rise not the end of the world by a long shot.

The daily variation is irrelevant. It's the maximum that's important. If high tide near my house is 1 foot below the bottom of my front door, and low tide is 15 feet below my front door, 2 feet would not seem like a big deal based on your argument. On the other hand, 2 feet of rise would ruin my house. I could pay a bunch of money to raise the house, but then the road to get there would be under water at high tide. On top of that, the high tide water level varies with the moon, so even if the water did not rise enough for most high tides did not flood my house, some might. Even if the highest high tide won't flood my house, higher water levels might cause storm surges from small storms to ruin my house.

Maximum temperature follows the same argument.

Hater says

But not by CO2.

You think that humans cause global warming, but not by CO2 emissions?

Wear a pink wig, a stuffed brassiere under your shirt, and secretary glasses and you'll be OK, but you might have to rinse your mouth out after being grabbed and kissed.

Here's sea level rise from the 4th assessment report for scenario SRES A1B. This scenario is based on population peaking in 2050 and a balanced outlook of fossil and alternative energy use (https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/029.htm)
The range is 0.2 to 0.5 meters by 2100, and the 4th assessment report was published in 2007, so this is nowhere near new.

To make matters worse, the sea level is not going to rise equally in all locations. It will rise much more in some locations.

Dan8267 says

If you say that losing Miami is OK, I say fuck you. You don't get to say that the cities I love, live in, and work in are acceptable casualties just so some rich, lazy fuck can have a third yacht. Fuck that.

Dan, Miami is thriving partly because rich people want a place to dock their yachts.

Then again, rich people with superior information advantage are still buying $30M waterfront homes in South Florida. Perhaps the rising sea level threat is overrated.

Hater says

You would agree that co2 is essential for life on planet Earth, wouldn't you? You would also agree that the main source of Earth's warmth is the sun, yes?

Yes. Neither of these is inconsistent with global warming theory. Watch the very basic introduction that Dan posted earlier. CO2 amplifies the warming by the sun.
Do you think that CO2 being essential for life on earth means that it cannot be bad or that too much of it cannot be bad?

Hater says

Nope, it's the Sun.

Has anybody measure the output of the sun and used that to predict the ocean and atmospheric temperature? If it's so simple, someone must have proven it, no?

YesYNot says

You seem to have determined that climate models are bad. Did you use any specific criteria to make that determination?

Let's say I spend a lot of time on quantitative models...

Note that I definitely believe that global temperature is rising. I am a bit less sure about whether the change is caused by human activities. There is no plausible way to link extreme weather events to climate change.

Using those "models" to make long-term projections for policy decisions is batshit crazy. Those "climate scientists" are asking you to take a leap of faith by appealing to your fear.

It is a sleight of hand. They try to conflate the statistically robust claim of rising temperature with the questionable predictive power of their long-term models. And they want to effect policy decisions.

Carry a KKK hood to wear in a pinch.