patrick.net

Same day you made your call to buy gold.

The first chart breaks historical options data into 30-day atm vol bins. From the historical vols, i calculated an implied one day move, then compared that implied move to the average market performance of the underlying. You can see that with vix lower than 17, vol very seriously under-performs its implied one-day move. Over 29 vol, the market tends to OVERPERFORM its implied one-day move.

Most investors understand the inverse relationship between the stock market and the vix... however in the second chart I am suggesting that the IV is a function of % drawdown from previous market high rather than absolute level of the market.

In the 3rd chart I track IV per day after a market high. Market volatility simply DOES NOT happen until after 6 weeks from the last market high.

Historically high vol environments starts around 100 days after a market high, after a greater than 15% decline from he previous high AND with an IV starting point of over 29... Thats when you buy vix calls.

Within 60 days or 8% of a market high, with IV less than 17%... this is a very strong risk/reward vol selling environment.

Geez.It looks like climate change is starting to show what it can do

Damages are a lot lower when you sexually assault men rather than women. Republicans are thrifty that way.

Hillary Clinton, so qualified to run a government that the basics of classified material handling is too confusing. That's the optimistic interpretation.

Be thankful the witch lost

CBOEtrader says

Within 60 days or 8% of a market high, with IV less than 17%... this is a very strong risk/reward vol selling environment.

Usually, yes, I agree. However, recently there were some opportunities for long volatility trades with excellent risk/reward. They don't come often and don't last long.

FP says

Usually, yes, I agree. However, recently there were some opportunities for long volatility trades with excellent risk/reward. They don't come often and don't last long.

Yes, within a low vol environment, i have rules for staying flat... and breakout points wherein i flip and go long vol. As you said, its rare during these times. Given how recently we've made new market highs, a legit long vol environment is most likely at least 4 months out.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/03/business/dealbook/puerto-rico-debt.html

Puerto Rico Declares a Form of Bankruptcy

With its creditors at its heels and its coffers depleted, Puerto Rico sought what is essentially bankruptcy relief in federal court on Wednesday, the first time in history that an American state or territory had taken the extraordinary measure.

The action sent Puerto Rico, whose approximately $123 billion in debt and pension obligations far exceeds the $18 billion bankruptcy filed by Detroit in 2013, to uncharted ground.

While the court proceedings could eventually make the island solvent for the first time in decades, the more immediate repercussions will likely be grim: Government workers will forgo pension money, public health and infrastructure projects will go wanting.

The total includes about $74 billion in bond debt and $49 billion in unfunded pension obligations.

While many of Puerto Rico’s circumstances are unique, its case is also a warning sign for many American states and municipalities — such as Illinois and Philadelphia — that are facing some of the same strains, including rising pension costs, crumbling infrastructure, departing taxpayers and credit downgrades that make it more expensive to raise money. Historically, Puerto Rico was barred from declaring bankruptcy. In the end, however, financial reality trumped the statutes, and Congress enacted a law last year allowing bankruptcy-like proceedings.

The island’s many creditors — whose lawsuits filed against Puerto Rico on Tuesday prompted the island’s request for court relief on Wednesday — are likely to receive far less of their money back than they want. Their predicament may turn out to be a cautionary tale for bond holders of other troubled states and cities. Puerto Rico’s case could show public workers and retirees that seemingly inviolate pension systems can be changed, too.

The next step is for the Supreme Court — specifically, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. — to designate a bankruptcy judge to handle the case.

The island’s lawyers may view some bankruptcy courts as more likely to be favorable to them than others. Some creditors fear Puerto Rico will seek to have the case handled in the Southern District of New York.

Puerto Rico’s case will be the first ever heard under a federal law for insolvent territories, called Promesa, which was enacted last summer; the Obama administration had warned that a “humanitarian crisis” would ensue if Puerto Rico were not given extraordinary powers to abrogate debt. There is no existing body of court precedent for Promesa, but the island’s creditors — who range from hedge fund managers to mom-and-pop investors — are bracing for a titanic battle.

zzyzzx says

Puerto Rico Declares a Form of Bankruptcy

With its creditors at its heels and its coffers depleted, Puerto Rico sought what is essentially bankruptcy relief in federal court on Wednesday, the first time in history that an American state or territory had taken the extraordinary measure.

Let them go BK. Who cares?

Comey Huma Abedin Weiner. What exactly is the message?

My favorite is guys saying why should I have to pay for someone else's pre-existing condition. Uh, where do you think the Federal Government's $8 billion is coming from?

Ironman says

Does EVERY American have pre-existing conditions?

According to Kaiser, only 1 in four do, so each of them will get $100. While not necessarily enough to pay for a 10 minute conversation with a doctor, it will cover enough beer to drown their sorrows for a couple of weeks if they exercise moderation.

Ironman says

So, it took the Repub majority House a little over 3 months to pass a Obamacare Bill under Trump's leadership (with 20 Repubs voting NO)

I'll give it to them. I didn't think that they had the balls. Part of the reason for the speed is that they knew it wouldn't pass if they waited for people to figure out what was in it.

The first time I heard a Republican say that they wanted to 'save preexisting conditions', I thought it was a mistake. But they keep talking about protecting preexisting conditions instead of protecting people with preexisting conditions. I hope Republicans enjoy the celebration, because it's going to get ugly.

Ironman says

WASHINGTON (CBS/AP) — The House of Representatives passed the latest Republican-revised health care bill to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Obamacare was failing. Something had to be done.

"Obamacare was failing. Something had to be done."

And the cure will be worse than the disease in this case. But, it will make for some interesting mid-term elections, that's for sure.

She wouldn't have two black eyes if you hadn't had to tell her twice.
Black eyes aren't pre-existing,they heal without a medical record.
It's the broken orbital sockets that are the problem.
STFU! Ragged bitch!

People are getting fucking rich left and right by being booted off the planes! Need to book a flight to somewhere, anywhere. Pronto. Don't want to miss out on this boondoggle.

Watching Nancy Pelosi losing her mind never gets old.

OBAMACARE IS NOTHING BUT A FAILING PILE OF GARBAGE

PS: I love the salt

This stinking pile of crap bill polls at about 20-30%. I've read that any House Republican that won last election by 15 pts or less and voted in favor of this bill is in serious jeopardy in the mid-terms.

Strategist says

Obama meant well when he introduced Obamacare, but it did not work. Our healthcare system is ridiculously expensive, which is why it is difficult to cover everyone. If preexisting conditions have to be accepted by the insurance companies, people will tend to apply only after they get sick, which will raise premiums for the rest.

I hope TrumpCare works better.

Trumpcare addresses none of the issues with healthcare in the US. It's another in a series of giveaways to the rich by Trump.

joeyjojojunior says

I hope TrumpCare works better.

Trumpcare addresses none of the issues with healthcare in the US. It's another in a series of giveaways to the rich by Trump.

How would you have fixed Obamacare?

Ironman says

When it was Obamacare, you were all over it, Now that you've renamed it, it's a "stinking pile of crap".

Got it!!

Why didn't you bitch about the last 6 years??

He he he. Because Obama could do no wrong. He screwed up with the economy. He screwed up with terrorism. He screwed up with Obamacare. But other than his screwups, Obama was perfect.

Strategist says

How would you have fixed Obamacare?

I would study the healthcare systems that work for other countries, learn from them, and copy the best.

Ironman says

When it was Obamacare, you were all over it, Now that you've renamed it, it's a "stinking pile of crap".

Got it!!

Why didn't you bitch about the last 6 years??

You mean now the House voted to repeal and replace with Trumpcare? That doesn't have coverage for pre-existing conditions--one of the only good parts of Obamacare? That's why.

Ironman says

Why didn't Obama and the Dems do that before he signed the Obamacare bill?

I don't know. I guess they didn't consult me.

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

How would you have fixed Obamacare?

I would study the healthcare systems that work for other countries, learn from them, and copy the best.

We have studied the health career system of every developed country without a solution.
I think the answer lies with the fucking lawyers, the ambulance chasers, who make it impossible for us to have an efficient health care system.
All we need to do is outsource health care to other countries, and screw the lawyers.

Obamacare is still in full effect.
Republicans have nothing.

Have you Wingnuts read the bill?
Surely you got a copy to see what the TRASH you elected is
doing for your healthcare.

Ironman says

So that's the only piece that matters, pre-existing conditions??

Having tens of millions of people getting fucked over by YYuuggeee deductibles and Yyuuggeee co-pays or having policies canceled that they liked by Obamacare didn't matter and you were OK with that?

And that's going to change now? This bill does nothing to reduce cost of service. It just rations services to poor people.

Now you'll have tens of millions of people getting fucked over by insurance companies refusing to cover essential services and/or refusing to cover them at all.

The only good part is that Trump and Republicans will own this one.

Strategist says

I think the answer lies with the fucking lawyers, the ambulance chasers, who make it impossible for us to have an efficient health care system.

You've been brainwashed by the Koch Bros. Lawsuits and malpractice insurance are a rounding error in the cost of healthcare.

joeyjojojunior says

Strategist says

I think the answer lies with the fucking lawyers, the ambulance chasers, who make it impossible for us to have an efficient health care system.

You've been brainwashed by the Koch Bros. Lawsuits and malpractice insurance are a rounding error in the cost of healthcare.

No Joey, you don't get it. The frivolous lawsuits is what results in "defensive medicine" Doctors will order every unnecessary test and procedure, just to protect themselves.
Our system is fucked up.

joeyjojojunior says

I would study the healthcare systems that work for other countries, learn from them, and copy the best.

I don't think grass is greener on the other side.

Ironman says

I was hoping you would spew that false narrative. Now for FACTS...

...."After the ACA was passed in 2010, the federal government established a temporary high-risk pool for people not being served by the state polls, and it enrolled another 135,000.

In all, estimating generously about 500,000 people would likely need high-risk pool coverage after ObamaCare is repealed.

That’s a far cry from the Obama administration’s claim that 129 million Americans with a pre-existing condition could be denied coverage.” That inflated number exaggerates what medical conditions trigger a coverage denial."

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/healthcare/309081-the-pre-existing-conditions-myth

See, the "pre-existing conditions myth" was just that, scare tactics by Obama, and you bought the lie:, hook, line and sinker.

Forgive me if I'm a bit skeptical of an article written by a former Republican Lt. Governor. Her opinion is that fewer than 129MM would be denied, but she has no basis for that opinion. And she is 100% incorrect that pre-existing conditions don't matter in the private sector. They don't matter until you are laid off and are not continuously covered. She paints a rosy picture, but even her rosy picture estimates that $16B is needed for the high risk pool. Trumpcare sets aside $8B. And guess what, you're paying for it.

https://apnews.com/56832ece99244ce585d20e8196f0afec

Annual and lifetime caps are back!!!

FortWayne says

I don't think grass is greener on the other side.

If cost is one of your concerns, then it definitely is. The US spends more per capital on healthcare than any other civilized country. By FAR.

Ironman says

joeyjojojunior says

The US spends more per capital on healthcare than any other civilized country.

You can thank Obama and the Dems for NOT addressing that with their major healthcare reform bill of Obamacare?

Why didn't they address the costs??

How we reduce the cost of healthcare is the million dollar question. Here are are a few suggestions.
1. Revise/ change the liability laws.
2. Offshore our healthcare do other countries.
3. ....I don't know...please comment.

Strategist says

How we reduce the cost of healthcare is the million dollar question

just copy the healthcare system of any of the other developed countries, it will already be a huge imporvement