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Press exaggerates rent increases


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2006 Oct 19, 1:10pm   12,146 views  183 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (59)   💰tip   ignore  

Lately there has been a rash of articles about Bay Area rents going up. This is odd, because there was a big surge in rents in May and June, but not now. Two years ago I started monitoring and making graphs of Bay Area rents on the home page at http://patrick.net/ so I have plotted a huge amount of data, and I'm sure that the rental news lately is pretty boring.

So why the sudden burst of articles? Random noise in the press, or an attempt to encourage whatever few people who may still be thinking of buying a house?

Patrick

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68   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:46am  

I saw an ad for Park Place one bedroom for $2081. WTF? Good luck with that.

We almost rented a $2600 one bedroom from Avalon Towers. It is very nice with excellent view. Only one bathroom though.

We soon realized the silliness of it. Well, even that would be much cheaper than buying.

69   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 4:48am  

Surgeons are born with open heart sugery skills I presume. They dont have to practice at all.

I feel bad that I called tham sturgeons a few times. I have really bad Freudian slips. ;)

70   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 4:53am  

Surgeons are born with open heart sugery skills I presume. They dont have to practice at all.

Yes, I'll admit it, Phil. I was born able to do what I do. I am god's gift to humanity. And I deserve lots of Ha Ha's for being born that way.

You have misinterpreted Peter P's argument. (I think) what he is trying to argue is that the final engineering product of a computerized ABS system or pacemaker programming is the end result of years of development and fine-tuning. Of course surgeons and other MD's need to learn their trade, but it's done in a controlled environment, and specifically, when they perform an operation on a particular individual, that specific procedure needs to be basically error free. Every single time. You (the generic engineer) do not need to design a new pacemaker for every pacemaker that is implanted each time. Your argument is flawed.

71   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 5:00am  

Ahem,

Regarding rent increases/having rental sold out from under you:

On my list of "Bad things that can happen to me today"

1. NASD investigation

2. Diagnosed with cancer

3. Mrs. DinOR reveals she's a lesbian

_
_
_

39. Rental gets sold out from underneath me.

Seriously guys, if that's the WORST thing that happens to me that day, I'm gonna be fine. AND it's Friday so the "Low Beer Warning Indicator" is fully illuminated!

72   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:04am  

(it took 3 years to get all the plans and approvals done, though again, that’s just ancedotal… ymmv…)

This is madness. Landowners should be able to do anything to their land unless public health and safety would be materially impacted.

If neighbors do not like what is happening next door, they can buy the land and keep it vacant. If they cannot afford that, TOUGH.

73   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 5:12am  

SQT,

Please to notice having cancer "not quite" as serious as NASD "cavity search".

I guess it's easier for you and I to have a hardy yuck on this b/c rentals are so plentiful in PDX/SAC! I saw a "Contractor's Own Home" listed for weeks on C/L and now the putz wants to "rent it out" to the tune of $3,900 a month? In Portland? Dude...... Can't wait to refine search by adding "Motivated" and see that one come up!

74   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:18am  

I saw a “Contractor’s Own Home” listed for weeks on C/L and now the putz wants to “rent it out” to the tune of $3,900 a month?

Looks like people do not know what a market is.

75   surfer-x   2006 Oct 20, 5:23am  

DinOR, I love you, can we cuddle? ;)

76   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 5:26am  

I do not care about renters rights, because much of them actually hurt renters in the long run.

However, the lease is a contract and it should be fulfilled. I do not understand how people can be kicked-out if a lease is in effect.

Agreed. I was not intending to make any kind of statement in support of "tenants rights". Like you, I believe that *everyone* should be obligated to perform duties under contracts they've agreed to.

There's the problem. As a practical matter, the process of assignment by the landlord when the property is sold can be used as a loophole for the new owners to legally cancel the contract without damages. The only upside is that, with a letter from a competent lawyer, the tenant can often cancel those contracts and demand refund of deposit without damages also -- but it will cost you your deposit in legal fees.

77   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 5:31am  

Nurses and Doctors are in that field to make money period.

For an engineer you're surprisingly ignorant. Nurses? Yes, they are so overpaid it is disgusting. And the damned public school teachers too, bunch of greedy bums. In fact, those sneering Starbuck$ workers, with their cushy tips and fancy green aprons...."you think you're better than me, huh?"

For the record, many doctors earn less in salary than many CPAs, MBAs, CFAs, and all the others who sacrifice so hard every day to breathe life back into dead presidents.

78   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 5:40am  

Surfer X,

Yeah sure. Seriously though it's a shame *Julie hadn't informed us earlier so we could have had the "Neighbor from HELL" going away party! You been hearing about the "ghost towns" sprouting up all over Phoenix and Vegas? 80% vacant? Can you say "over estimated demand a little".

Yeah, we're partying 24/7 whatcha gonna do 'bout it? Oh, you're gonna call the cops? In case you haven't heard we've been "UN-incorporated" and are no longer under their jurisdiction! Hey @sshole! I guess they didn't tell you when the realt-whore said "gated community" they might have neglected to mention the gate is there to keep you in!

79   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:48am  

Sometimes, they have town-hall meetings on community TV. Oh buy it is difficult to watch.

In short, it is all about residents trying to exercise every right to make things difficult. I compare this to bureaucracy.

The "shareholder of the city" concept is looking more promising.

80   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 5:50am  

The “shareholder of the city” concept is looking more promising.

So long as it's a real *share*holder model and not some fluffy, anti-capitalist *stake*holder model.

The only way I'll be a stakeholder of anything is if the stake is wooden and I'm holding it piercing the heart of CSR.

81   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:52am  

For instance, I was listening to this guy who tried to present a case against building four homes. He said the traffic impact would be too much.

Give me a freaking break.

82   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 5:53am  

The only way I’ll be a stakeholder of anything is if the stake is wooden and I’m holding it piercing the heart of CSR.

Would it be similar to Vlad the Impaler?

83   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 6:02am  

Julie,

I said I was SORRY! It's just that typically when people post about how this or that home sold for "X" above asking (they're usually a troll). When it comes to ALL of the truly awful things that can happen to us in life, this isn't so bad.

84   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 6:13am  

SFGuy,

I was over at Ben's blog and txchick57 had a great link called "maxedoutmovie" complete w/parody of the MasterCard Logo? Most of it was just plain funny like the gal owing CitiBank that rec'd a bump in her credit limit when she was actually no longer even making payments! That's how crazy things have become.

What is really shocking is that the movie stars and pols are on a "special list" where they are given "special treatment"! Anyone with a high profile and access to the media is treated w/kid gloves so any time the topic comes up they're like "What problem?" My credit report is just fine!

Sick ain't it.

85   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 6:29am  

so you’ re fine with Paris Hilton / Sergey Brin / David Hasselhoff having millions more votes than you?

Extreme stylized examples aside, yes, I'm completely fine with it.

86   surfer-x   2006 Oct 20, 6:33am  

Senor Cote', dude you should have stopped by!

Yeah fuck $anta Barbara, but hey, it could be worse, we could be in Pittsburgh.

DinOR, that's the one thing people forget about, if the landlord gets twitchy take a chainsaw to the walls and floors, pour concrete in the toilet and leave. Keep the fucking deposit asshole. I say scorched earth. "Not one step back" J. Stalin, Stalingrad 1942

87   HARM   2006 Oct 20, 6:38am  

surfer-x Says:
DinOR, I love you, can we cuddle?

I think I might be feeling jealous. Is that wrong... gay...?

@Randy H, etc.

Based on the way some here have complained about BA rent control in the past, I pretty much assumed it was rampant. The fact it's not (outside SF proper & Berkeley) makes the reported rent hikes that much more mystifying. Is rental inventory really THAT scarce that LLs can hike 15-20% at will and get it? Things are pretty tight here in L.A., but even so, increases above 10% are still pretty rare.

88   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 6:45am  

HARM

Keep in mind the reports of rent increases, my own included, are purely anecdotal. It could well be more a reflection of the demographic of folks who visit and post here more than the overall rent trend of the BA. The BA is pretty big, and not everyone here works for Google, Apple or Oracle, despite the common perception.

89   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 6:47am  

"scorched earth" LOL!

"Uh, roger ONE-FIVE we're fixing ta' f@ck with it"

"Uh, that's a roger, bring in all your ships wing abreast and get your people back and heads down......this is gonna be a big one"

Some of the greatest nights of my life were "We're not getting our deposit money back anyway" parties! You know, one need not even "rent" some of these places in the very near future. With all of the abandoned McAlbatrosses and all the parties goin' on they can't bust all of us!

90   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 6:49am  

And I don’t really give a shit what the market is like in Florida or any other awful backwater where nobody wants to live. I’m talking San Francisco, where rents are up, and there’s no inventory.

@julie,
Sorry about your situation. However, it's not that constructive to trash places where many posters (and probably readers) live. Doesn't win you many friends.

This probably doesn't make you feel any better, but unless the buyer has a huge down payment, he/she will be paying significantly more than the $1800/mo you mentioned. More like $3K/month+ in PITI.

91   HARM   2006 Oct 20, 6:49am  

And I don’t really give a shit what the market is like in Florida or any other awful backwater where nobody wants to live. I’m talking San Francisco, where rents are up, and there’s no inventory.

allah beat me to it, but, yes, San Francisco really is "special". Aside from shitty, cramped, unaffordable housing, the architecture sucks: The San Francisco Paradox
When good cities have bad architecture

92   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 6:57am  

@HARM,
Interesting but shallow article. I basically agree with their thesis - SF has remarkably little distinctive architecture. The "painted ladies" are overexposed, and there are victorians in many US cities. Aside from the high end stuff like upper Pac Heights, Presidio, and a few other neighborhoods, there are a lot of really depressing looking homes. Lots of boxes slapped together in the 60's or 70's shoehorned together. What's worse is that a lot of neighborhoods have no trees and are criss-crossed by electrical and Muni wires. You can walk/drive for blocks and blocks in the Sunset or Richmond without seeing more than a couple of trees on any given block. But then again, every city has its architecturally "ugly" side. Boston has the triple deckers, NYC has those weird looking duplexes in the outer boroughs, etc.

93   DinOR   2006 Oct 20, 7:00am  

Allah,

I can't even get ramen (Top or otherwise) past my nose! It smells like cat pee (to me anyway) but when you're the only "non-asian" in your own home you kind of get used to it? I hate when they don't finish it and leave it on the counter!

Oh, they've made me an "Honorary Filipino"!

94   HARM   2006 Oct 20, 7:06am  

(you do know SF is #1 most desirable for travelers/tourists right? It’s not because it’s ugly)

Really? I thought it was the abundant recreational drugs and live sex shows that attracted tourists. My bad... ;-)

95   Randy H   2006 Oct 20, 7:13am  

I guess alot of people would rather eat top raman in CA than filet-mignon in GA.

The cuisine in Atlanta is slightly better than Columbus OH or Indianapolis IN; I'll give it that. And Stone Mountain. Woot. Who needs the Golden Gate National Recreation Area?

96   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 7:15am  

The cuisine in Atlanta is slightly better than Columbus OH or Indianapolis IN;

Great fried chicken and ribs in Georgia. Not too good for you, but once in a while... mmmmm.

97   FormerAptBroker   2006 Oct 20, 7:24am  

Vita Says:

> One conspicuous rent increase on the Peninsula resulted
> from a change in ownership and the desire to start
> recovering the costs of the purchase. In San Mateo the
> Hillsdale Garden Apartments, almost 700 units under
> one owner for 40+ years, was sold to a company this year.

The Hillsdale Gardens was built in San Mateo by Bohannon Development just after WWII when there was nothing in the middle of town (the Hillsdale Mall and Hillsdale High did not open until the mid 50’s).

Essex Property Trust the Palo Alto REIT controlled by George Marcus (who personally gave $15mm to the De Young Museum last year) bought Hillsdale Gardens and is doing a MAJOR re-hab of all the units (many that really need it after 60 years).

In the past few years’ lots of REITs (and other investment firms like Hanover Property Corp. also controlled by George Marcus) have been buying many well located apartments and renovating units as people move.

Remember when you see rents going up by $500 at a property rents may be rising across the board or it may be due to a complete renovation of a unit that added a second bath to the unit and granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances…

98   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 7:43am  

come on now! Rat infested (human and otherwise) it may be, but it IS beautifull no matter what this guy says. And that includes its architecture (if you exclude most of the western, southwestern, and southeastern parts) .

San Francisco has a huge homeless population. Palo Alto has the same problem too. Sometimes, I really feel threatened.

99   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 7:45am  

SF is actually too cold for me, I prefer Oakland, but I work in SSF, so SF it is.

Is it really that cold? I doubt it dips into the 30s too often.

I cannot stand temperatures north of 75.

100   skibum   2006 Oct 20, 7:58am  

@allah,

Just substitute "any city in the South" for "GA" and "most cities in the Northeast or coastal CA", and you are onto something. You definitely get a lot for your money relatively speaking. This was the mantra of nomadtoons/ww2. If that's worth moving when you weigh in all the other factors, I'd say go for it.

On the other hand, living in the "White House" or "Dracula's Castle" doesn't do it for me. especially the dracula's castle part...

101   OO   2006 Oct 20, 8:04am  

Apartment rental and house rental are two different markets. It also depends on the price point.

The closer you get to $3K rent, the bigger the apparent drop in BA. The 1b, 2b places are most subject to increases. I posted a couple of days about friends finding house rental in Saratoga and San Mateo, finding far more choices with their 2.5-3K house rental.

You also need to look at the quality of the stock. These houses come fully remodeled with wooden floor throughout, appliances, and yeah baby, granite countertop. Originally these inventory never came on the market for rental, they went straight from one seller to another buyer. The fact that these newly renovated houses come on rental market already says a lot.

102   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 8:06am  

If you spend most of your time outside (day laborer) than that can be a problem, but if you work in a nice air conditioned office, then it is redundant. On the weekends and days off you can just spend more time in the pool!

I just prefer fresh air. That said, cool air is more important.

I do not swim.

I actually think that cooler weather is more productive. Many of the world's economic centers are far away from the equator.

Cold weather is also a natural defense against homelessness.

103   e   2006 Oct 20, 8:21am  

It looks to me that the future economy there will get progressively while here on LI it will get progressively worse.

Uh, was there ever really an economy on Long Island? Other than Roosevelt Field Mall, real estate, potato farming, and fighting Shoreham?

104   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 8:23am  

You should learn, it can keep you from drowning.

I can swim. I just hate swimming.

So is affordable housing.

Homelessness is not about housing.

I can tolerate the heat if it is super dry like Vegas.

105   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 8:30am  

It is if you can’t afford to put a roof over your head!

They should really find something to do. I am not against social programs that re-educates homeless people. (At least those who can be educated.)

106   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 8:34am  

NYC had plenty of that. Now it doesn’t.

I see that as an argument against global warming. :)

SF has plenty of “homeless” even in August when it’s “freezing” here.

True. Perhaps homelessness is just an artifact of urbanism.

If "aid" continues to be available, the problem will not stop. It is really not in the society's best interest to encourage homelessness. What does this imply?

107   Peter P   2006 Oct 20, 8:43am  

I’m not talking about social programs, I’m talking about your take home pay being enough to be able to pay the rent on your apartment or mortgage.

I do not think the homeless has the concept of "take home pay". I heard that many cash panhandlers evade tax.

I agree that affordable housing is important. I contend that it can be achieved only with a free-to-build policy. NIMBYism created the misfortune you described.

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