patrick.net

The bad news for Apple is that the huge buying cycle that happened with the Apple 6 will start petering out soon. People wanted a larger screen, now they got it (or will soon). After that, people will not upgrade for a small camera improvement or a remotely faster processor - at least for a while.
Also competitors in China are ramping-up. A smart phone is a commodity, and for many, there is very little to justify the extra cost of the fat Apple margins.
There's really nothing Apple can do to compensate with other businesses. It's not music or TV or watches that are going to plug the hole.

Based on this I would expect a crash of some sort for Apple stock similar to what we saw in 2013.

Call it Crazy says

“If AAPL doesn’t find its footing soon, it may risk a deeper drop,” writes Andrew Nyquist, over at See It Market.

I love these kinds of information-free wall street prognostications. NOT! Andrew Nyquist is saying: If it does not stop falling, it will continue falling.

Well, gee, that is quite an insight you've got there Andrew.

i owned some apple 10 years ago and selling it was a big mistake in retrospect. but now i'm afraid to buy it because it's just so freaking huge. it's the biggest stock by market cap:

http://www.iweblists.com/us/commerce/MarketCapitalization.html

What do you think about GOOG? They seem to be doing all the right things lately.

AAPL stores are still packed in our neighborhood, even poor people who can barely afford rent seem to be buying iPhones. But I'm just like you, frightened to buy more of AAPL due to their market cap already.

FortWayne says

What do you think about GOOG?

I try not to think about them. I expect they will continue to intrude and spy on every aspect of our lives, probably continuing to grow by being evil.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-is-nearly-40-more-valuable-than-the-city-of-chicago-2017-05-22

Apple is nearly 40% more valuable than the city of Chicago

I agree. I personally used only Linux laptops for 20 years, but last year gave up and got a MacBook Air because my wife loves hers so much, and because every single programming job in the last decade simply issued me a Mac laptop of some kind and I got very used to them.

I run Linux in a VirtualBox VM on the Mac and pretty much have the best of both worlds: reliable and functional hardware (printing! wifi! suspend mode!) and a bit-for-bit identical Linux OS so I can develop or test web stuff there before pushing to production with certainty that the code will run the same.

zzyzzx says

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-is-nearly-40-more-valuable-than-the-city-of-chicago-2017-05-22

Apple is nearly 40% more valuable than the city of Chicago

They exaggerate a bit:

At current levels, Apple Inc’s AAPL, +0.03% market capitalization of about $803 billion is 38% larger than Chicago, which had a real GDP of $581 billion in 2016.

They are comparing Apple's market cap (cost per share times all shares) with an annual turnover of all goods and services. To be slightly more accurate, we could compare the value of all residential housing to Apple:

Together, all homes in the Chicago area were worth $772.6 billion at the end of 2016

But that's just residential. I bet with all the office space, Chicago is still worth more than Apple.

Anyway, these comparisons assume linearity where there isn't any. Prices change with volume. So if Apple tried to buy all of Chicago, prices for the land would go up. I think it's called "slippage".

Makes sense to me. I'd rather own Apple than the city of Chicago.

Up after hours on good earning:
After-hours: 159.50

win some, lose some . . .

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/apple-earnings-q2-2017-how-much-cash-does-apple-have.html

Apple cash pile hits new record of $261.5 billion
Apple's new record cash pile is up 13 percent year over year.

They can now buy a small country.

back in Jan i said it would be $155 by next Jan.

i guess i need to revise my estimate since the stock has performed much better than i expected: $180 by Jan 2018.

And all those dollars are fiat currency.

HEY YOU says

And all those dollars are fiat currency.

anything outside of cash and bonds go up with inflation.

But can the highest-valued stock continue to go up forever?

jazz_music says

The United States is so small these days, nothing compared to what it once was.

Visualize pledging your allegiance to the shareholders.

...or going to war against the non-complaint.

Yup. Those were the good ole days.
Slave labor everywhere. Now they want minimum wages.
Obedient women. Now they think they have the right to vote.
Native Americans. So many to kill. Now they get upset and sue you.
Life sucks!

$172 after hour and iPhone X didn't even sell yet.

$200 by next earning date.

fingerprint and facial recognition data are only stored on the phone.

BorderPatrol says

fingerprint and facial recognition data are only stored on the phone.

But everybody is free to download it from the phone.

mell says

BorderPatrol says

fingerprint and facial recognition data are only stored on the phone.

But everybody is free to download it from the phone.

not that simple. it's stored in the cpu and definitely encrypted. you can crack the case open and physically access the chip but the data will be garbage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touch_ID
Apple says fingerprint information is stored locally in a secure enclave on the Apple A7 and later chips, not in the cloud, a design choice intended to make it very difficult for users to externally access the fingerprint information.

In order to overcome potential security drawbacks, Apple's invention includes a process of collapsing the full maps into a sort of checksum, hash function, or histogram. For example, each encrypted ridge map template can have some lower resolution pattern computed and associated with the ridge map. One exemplary pattern could be a histogram of, e.g., the most common angles (e.g., a 2 dimensional (2D) array of common angles). The exemplary pattern could include in each slot an average value over a respective vector of the map. The exemplary pattern could include in each slot a sum of the values over a respective vector of the map. The exemplary pattern could include the smallest or largest value within a respective vector of the map or could be a difference between a largest and a smallest value within the respective vector of the map. Numerous other exemplary embodiments are also possible, and any other exemplary pattern calculation can be used, where the exemplary pattern includes enough associated information to narrow the candidate list, while omitting enough associated information that the unsecured pattern cannot or cannot easily be reverse engineered into a matching texture.

WatermelonUniversity says

fingerprint and facial recognition data are only stored on the phone.

How can we be certain of this?

It would be very simple for Apple to say that, and yet upload fingerprint and facial data.

You would think that this would violate Apple Music's terms.

Anyone have an Apple Music account? Would be good to prove that this is real.

Houston... we have a problem....

BOOM!!!!!

After hours trading.... down 10%... to $146. (was $233. a few months ago)



Apple lowered its Q1 guidance in a letter to investors from CEO Tim Cook Wednesday.

Apple stock was halted in after-hours trading just prior to the announcement, and shares were down about 7 percent when trading resumed 20 minutes later.

Apple lowered revenue guidance to $84 billion, down from the $89 to $93 billion it had previously projected. The company lowered gross margin to about 38 percent from between 38 percent and 38.5 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/apple-warns-on-q1-results.html

Hurray, our teams are losing. Bring out the cheer-leaders. Happy new year.

I love it; I am compounding dividends so every 3 months I get some shares of AAPL for free.

I guess soon I will get a couple more shares than I did with the last dividend. I'll take it.

He who has the most shares when he wants to cash them in wins. Over the next few years, AAPL is going back up.

Nobody makes money like Apple does, over time this makes the stock go back up.

clambo says

I love it; I am compounding dividends so every 3 months I get some shares of AAPL for free.

I guess soon I will get a couple more shares than I did with the last dividend. I'll take it.

He who has the most shares when he wants to cash them in wins. Over the next few years, AAPL is going back up.

Nobody makes money like Apple does, over time this makes the stock go back up.

There seems to be an "Apple funeral" every 3-4 years when all kinds of pundits come out of woodwork to declare that APPL has no upside because they "can't innovate anymore" and "their products are overpriced"...

DASKAA says

clambo says

I love it; I am compounding dividends so every 3 months I get some shares of AAPL for free.

I guess soon I will get a couple more shares than I did with the last dividend. I'll take it.

He who has the most shares when he wants to cash them in wins. Over the next few years, AAPL is going back up.

Nobody makes money like Apple does, over time this makes the stock go back up.

There seems to be an "Apple funeral" every 3-4 years when all kinds of pundits come out of woodwork to declare that APPL has no upside because they "can't innovate anymore" and "their products are overpriced"...

I'd agree but I think this time it could be real in the sense that they won't get back to highs for a long while. Doesn't mean they won't make money. But at this point I'd like to see what is the next moneymaker now that iPhones reached their peak.

DASKAA says

There seems to be an "Apple funeral" every 3-4 years when all kinds of pundits come out of woodwork to declare that APPL has no upside because they "can't innovate anymore" and "their products are overpriced"...

The issue now is that the cell carriers aren't subsidizing the iPhone costs anymore and the consumer needs to anti-up the price upfront for the $1,000 iPhone. So, this stops growth, as the Snowflakes don't have that $1000 to spend. The poor Snowflakes end up having to keep their existing phones for more than a year, boo hoo, and can't impress their friends.

MrMagic says

The issue now is that the cell carriers aren't subsidizing the iPhone costs anymore and the consumer needs to anti-up the price upfront for the $1,000 iPhone. So, this stops growth, as the Snowflakes don't have that $1000 to spend. The poor Snowflakes end up having to keep their existing phones for more than a year, boo hoo, and can't impress their friends.

Um, no:

kt1652 says

Hurray, our teams are losing. Bring out the cheer-leaders. Happy new year.

Hahaha! There are a lot of haters out there including our native folks who are rooting against our country’s best interest. SMH!

DASKAA says

Um, no:

Um yeah...

The majority of people can't come up with $400 for an emergency. Is buying a new iPhone an emergency?

3/4 of the country live paycheck to paycheck, so no, they AREN'T running out to buy a new iPhone with their spare cash.

MrMagic says

DASKAA says

Um, no:

Um yeah...

The majority of people can't come up with $400 for an emergency.

You are moving goalposts, my friend: first it was "Snowflakes can't afford $1K to upgrade to the next iPhone" and now it's warrenesque "majority of people cant afford $400 for emergency".

I don't think Apple targets "the majority of people" in the first place - they are not interested in playing extra-high-volume extra-low-margins kinda game.

DASKAA says

You are moving goalposts, my friend: first it was "Snowflakes can't afford $1K to upgrade to the next iPhone" and now it's warrenesque "majority of people cant afford $400 for emergency".

Hmmm, I believe $450 and $1000 are more than $400. But I didn't take math class in L.A., so maybe it's different there.

DASKAA says

I don't think Apple targets "the majority of people" in the first place -

They're just the phone of choice for the poor Snowflakes... Smart people with money buy Androids.

MrMagic says

They're just the phone of choice for the poor Snowflakes... Smart people with money buy Androids.

True, but $600 for a Samsung phone isn't smart either.

$143.66/sh -14.26 (-9.03%)

Considering that they do have a shitload of cash and actually have earnings and pay a not so bad dividend, I think this is way overblown, at least compared to Tesla, FB, and Alphabet.

MrMagic says

Hmmm, I believe $450 and $1000 are more than $400. But I didn't take math class in L.A., so maybe it's different there.

Bottom line: yes, snoflakes can upgrade their phones for $450 which is far less than declared $1000. The $400 number and the group of people who alledgedly doesn't have even that are irrelevant to the conversation. It's not who Apple is catering to, pure and simple. They are irrelevant for both sides of the investment thesis on AAPL stock.

DASKAA says

The $400 number and the group of people who alledgedly doesn't have even than are irrelevant to the conversation. It's not who Apple is catering to, pure and simple.

So, 2/3rds of the population don't have or use an iPhone? Their not possible Apple customers?

Okey Dokey, never knew a iPhone was a rich mans phone...

Learn something new here every day!

Over 80% of teenagers prefer iPhone to Android — and that’s great news for Apple
https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-iphone-popularity-teens-piper-jaffray-2018-4

Wow, I didn't realize that 80%+ of teenagers are RICH!!