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Donald Trump likely to resign before Congress can impeach him
We can go up to $5,000
Will Vice-President Pence Also Face Impeachment?
Zero chance Trump resigns.
CBOEtrader saysZero chance Trump resigns.
Zero chance?? OK then giving me 1 to 1000 odds should be free money for you.
I bet $20 to your $20,000 that Trump is impeached or resigns before the end of his first term. Deal?
I’ll give you 1 to 5 at $5000 right now. Let’s do it.
So you think the chances of impeachment are less than 20%? My estimate (I admit, without much thought going into it), is around there too - between 10 and 20%. Since I don't gamble (i.e. I only play when the odds are in my favor), I am willing to take bets with 1 to 10 or better odds. Of course the size of the bet is also adjusted based on the odds.
if Trump resigns in 2018
There's a market for this type of betting. The odds are such that anyone who believes that Goran would actually pay up can make easy money on arbitrage. You would have to believe that Goran is honest, though. So, if nobody takes the bet, that means that either nobody thinks that Goran is honest or nobody wants a free $2K. I'm going with the former option.
How the hell is this uncivil?
FP saysSo you think the chances of impeachment are less than 20%? My estimate (I admit, without much thought going into it), is around there too - between 10 and 20%. Since I don't gamble (i.e. I only play when the odds are in my favor), I am willing to take bets with 1 to 10 or better odds. Of course the size of the bet is also adjusted based on the odds.
I'll do 10 to 1 at $1,000. I pay you $10,000 if Trump resigns in 2018 or you pay me $1,000 if he doesn't. I'll go as high as $2,000 if you want.
Game? We can get an agreement signed ASAP.
He's calling Goran dishonest, that's a personal attack and uncivil.
I think this is a fair bet. Any leftist that wants to put their money where their mouth is, let me know. We can go up to $5,000, but I kept it at $1,000 to make sure anyone could bet.
A lot of loud mouth leftist on MSM and various communities talking a lot of bull shit.
He's calling Goran dishonest
Where is there a market wherein you can sell the Trump-to-be-impeached trade for more than 10%? Prove me wrong, cause I'll go there and lay into that risk.
Congress Woman Jackie Speier Says That Donald Trump Will Resign When Faced With An Impeachment Indictment..Will Vice-President Pence Also Face Impeachment?
CBOEtrader saysWhere is there a market wherein you can sell the Trump-to-be-impeached trade for more than 10%? Prove me wrong, cause I'll go there and lay into that risk.
Wow. Even CBOE thinks there's only a 10% chance that Trump will not be impeached. That's a little low I'd say, even to many liberal gamblers.
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/international/us-elections/donald-trump-specials/225147663/
The odds for Trump "To Leave Office Via Impeachment Or Resignation Before End 1st Term" are listed as even right now. If you bet that he doesn't resign by end of term at ladbrokes for $1K, and then place $1K down that he does resign with Goran, then you break even at worst or win $4K if he does resign. If you bet $3K at Ladbrokes that he doesn't resign and $1K with Goran that he does, if he does resign, you win $2K ($5K-$3K). If he doesn't resign, you win $2K ($3K at ladbrokes - $1K with Goran). It's a guaranteed $2K winning. Who wants a free $2K. I've shown you exactly how to do it.
Who wants a free $2K. I've shown you exactly how to do it.
He's also lying. Where is there a market wherein you can sell the Trump-to-be-impeached trade for more than 10%? Prove me wrong, cause I'll go there and lay into that risk.
I don’t see where it says even odds for him resigning. Can you show me the specific betting link? I will bet $25,000 right now and post my bet receipt for all to see.
I will tell you how to place the bet when you tell me why comment 27 is in jail. I asked you politely in comment 30 and am still waiting for a response.
27 Heraclitusstudent ignore (1) 2017 Nov 22, 4:30pm like (5) dislike (1) jailed by GonzoReal liberate quote edit delete
Ok maybe just: Piggy's extraordinary cynicism.
It's just an attack on another user.
essentially calling them liars
Jackie Speier, who represents California's 14th Congressional District near San Francisco
errc saysThere's a market for this type of betting. The odds are such that anyone who believes that Goran would actually pay up can make easy money on arbitrage. You would have to believe that Goran is honest, though. So, if nobody takes the bet, that means that either nobody thinks that Goran is honest or nobody wants a free $2K. I'm going with the former option.
How the hell is this uncivil?
He's calling Goran dishonest, that's a personal attack and uncivil.
Based on your posting history, you have a problem understanding personal attacks. The current Comment jail is proof of that.
Sorry forgot to add this @Goran_K still waiting
Hutch says
Sorry forgot to add this @Goran_K still waiting
I went through the sign up process and ladbrokes doesn't allow U.S bets otherwise I would have put up a sizable bet.
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Donald Trump likely to resign before Congress can impeach him, says senior Democrat
Tom Batchelor,The Independent Fri, Aug 4 2:33 AM PDT
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Jackie Speier, who represents California's 14th Congressional District near San Francisco, said the probe into Russian meddling 'could get very muddy very quickly': Getty
Donald Trump would resign before Congress is able impeach him, a senior US representative has said, as pressure mounts over his team's alleged links to Russia.
Jackie Speier, who sits on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, said attempts by the President to pardon members of his family or fire the man appointed to investigate Russian meddling in last year’s presidential election could trigger an impeachment vote.
“I have always thought that he was never going to fulfil his full term,†she said.
“I am more convinced that he will leave before any impeachment would take place.â€
On Friday it emerged that the special counsel appointed to investigate Russian meddling in the 2016 vote, Robert Mueller, was using a grand jury – suggesting his probe was entering a new, more serious, phase.
The move piled further pressure on the President, whose seven months in office have been dogged by accusations that his team worked with Russia to swing the vote.
Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, Ms Speier said: “I do think the potential for the House to start to think in terms of impeachment is not outside the realm of possibility.
“It is not something that would be happening any time soon but if the President were to act precipitously at any of these situations, pardoning his family members, taking actions to try and get rid of Mr Mueller, I think those would be tipping points and could end up in the House calling for impeachment.â€
In order for Mr Trump to be impeached, a simple majority (50 per cent plus one representative) is needed in the House.
A trial would then take place in the Senate, where a two-thirds vote is needed to remove him from office.
Ms Speier said the current makeup of the House of Representatives meant only 24 Republicans were needed to join with Democrats in order to pass an impeachment vote.
Describing the similarities between the Mr Trump and Richard Nixon, who resigned following attempts to impeach him, as “starkâ€, she said the investigation into the incumbent president “could get very muddy very quicklyâ€, adding: “You can’t make this up, that is what is so mind boggling.â€
Mr Mueller was appointed special counsel in May by the justice department following the firing by Mr Trump of FBI director James Comey.
He has since assembled a team of more than a dozen investigators, including current and former justice department prosecutors with experience in international bribery, organised crime and financial fraud.
News of the grand jury came as senators introduced two bills aimed at protecting Mr Mueller from being fired by Mr Trump, with both parties signalling resistance to any White House effort to derail the investigation into Russian meddling in last year's election.
Mr Trump's defence team has been looking into potential conflicts of interest among members of Mr Mueller's team, such as past political contributions to Democrats including Hillary Clinton.
Mr Trump has warned that any effort by Mr Mueller to look into his finances would fall outside the scope of Mr Mueller's appointment.
Related:
Trump calls Russia investigation a ‘total fabrication’
During a rally in Huntington, W.Va., on Thursday, President Trump continued his criticism of and disdain for the federal investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, telling the cheering crowd that the probe is a “total fabrication.â€