patrick.net

Strategist says

mell says

What's your outlook for 2018?

Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.

My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.

Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?

Strategist says

mell says

What's your outlook for 2018?

Not going to appreciate much, could even dip. But no crash in sight yet.

My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.

Not here in the bay area, People are tapped out. I put the range of YoY appreciation at -5% to +5% but we will see.2017 brough 5%-7% increase YoY depending on condo/SFH. Not much room left here. Lot of properties taking months to sell now due to their high prices, but it's also winter though bay area doesn't have much of a winter. I think you're too optimistic, If, of course the stock market keeps rising at 10%-20% rates and now layoffs in sight it may pan out more bullish. Many hedge funders expect significantly more volatility in 2018 but who knows.

WineHorror says

My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.

Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?

Wherever there is a shortage, which is in most of the country. The population keeps increasing, while home construction has lagged in the last 10 years. It's the only reason why rents and home prices keep going up. Build they will, which is why homebuilders way outperformed the S&P in 2017, and will continue to do so until they build enough to catch up.
The time will come when home construction will over overshoot, along with the stock price of the home builders. That will be the time to sell.

mell says

My predictions:
Construction will go through the roof. The homebuilders index - ITB, increased 60% in 2017. Should increase more than 60% in 2018.
Home prices in OC should shoot up 10% +
Stock prices.....I predict a 6% jump. I hope I am wrong, and the S&P jumps 10% +
Champagne will be in short supply.

Not here in the bay area, People are tapped out. I put the range of YoY appreciation at -5% to +5% but we will see.2017 brough 5%-7% increase YoY depending on condo/SFH. Not much room left here. Lot of properties taking months to sell now due to their high prices, but it's also winter though bay area doesn't have much of a winter. I think you're too optimistic, If, of course the stock market keeps rising at 10%-20% rates and now layoffs in sight it may pan out more bullish. Many hedge funders expect significantly more volatility in 2018 but who knows.

The Bay Area is a very unique region. It was always overpriced, and continues to be so. Just watch the population figures in the BA. If it keeps increasing, nothing can stop the rise in home prices.

WineHorror says

Where, exactly, do you see or will see home building going through the roof?

East Dubin. West Livermore. West Pleasanton. Rows upon rows of hideous condo developments are going up.

AF is killing it with comedy today

Strategist says

The Bay Area is a very unique region. It was always overpriced, and continues to be so. Just watch the population figures in the BA. If it keeps increasing, nothing can stop the rise in home prices.

There's actually an exodus of Americans out of CA and an influx of mostly immigrants who cannot afford these prices. The market was supported by the foreign cash buyers. SF itself is going to shit and cannot cope with the rising population. San Jose seems to be doing a bit better at coping and has a better appreciating housing market. SF and the bay area are beautiful but horribly mismanaged. It all hinges on the new tech bubble.

Also many high-end properties have price cuts like fuck. I'm talking more than 20% easily. And they're not selling. The pressure remains in "starter" shacks.

mell says

Also many high-end properties have price cuts like fuck. I'm talking more than 20% easily. And they're not selling. The pressure remains in "starter" shacks.

I am consistently seeing actual house sales of $200/sf in my area now. This is on houses that are quite large, and luxurious. Comparatively, smaller houses like my old one sell for $400/sf. I found a foreclosure app that I suspect is a conglomeration of lenders. There are many foreclosure auctions coming up. It appears that this time, banks learned to not take ownership, so they are literally advertising the trustee sale. Purchasers have to bring the full price with them in cash to the auction. The amounts owing are staggering. Many auctions are for houses that are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, upside down. This means for example, someone owes $800,000 and the starting price is $300,000.

The second massive bubble is clearly bursting in San Diego.

This is all excellent news.

Interesting, in my areas winter is slow, because nobody can move here then. But even here not selling that much. That would be interesting a massive drop in stocks and home prices-well home prices drops may be good.

But this is not CA.CA is just overpriced.

Malcolm says

The second massive bubble is clearly bursting in San Diego.

Ahhhh, history repeats itself. For the Patrick veterans, does any of this sound familiar?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/26/rising-mortgage-rates-hit-new-home-sales-hard-a-bad-sign-for-builders.html

OMG, this one is even worse. The supply of available homes is as high as 2009.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-new-home-sales-hit-5-month-low-supply-highest-since-2009-idUSKCN1GA1X9

All of the blue dots are foreclosures in 92069. This was the neighborhood that I just got out of.

Sounds like they are giving money away. Page 4 states it’s a non recourse non interest loan that is forgiven in 10 years if I understood it correctly.

Basically free money to those who bought what they could not afford.

Our tax dollars at work... unions robbing us, gov is subsidizing housing bubble, homelessness is through the roof... liberal paradise of failures. It’s why there will never be enough taxes, plenty of theft every minute.

FortWayne says

Basically free money to those who bought what they could not afford.

It is funny, I just saw the commercial again. Yes, that is what is disgusting about it. It is causing homelessness because it is preventing prices from adjusting to what the market can pay.

lets Wait and hope for a great RE crash

You know it’s probably a scam. Guys connected on inside get all their loans subsidized, while average Americans are left to compete vs unfair advantage. This is awe full and corrupt.

anon_3a1a3 says

lets Wait and hope for a great RE crash

We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?

A very interesting article supporting the fact that some housing markets have become unsustainable. Amazon is literally concerned that employees will end up in foreclosure, which would cause labor problems.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-amazon-hq2-finalists-overvalued-housing.html

Half of the metro areas on Amazon's "short list" for its new HQ2 have overvalued housing—including the Dallas area, according to a new report by economists at CoreLogic.

"CoreLogic has reviewed home price trends in the cities that are being considered for the second headquarters for online retail giant Amazon," chief economist Frank Nothaft says in a new report. "All the cities on the shortlist are experiencing home price increases.

"Some cities have even exceeded the national average of 6 percent."

CoreLogic considers Austin, Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Montgomery County Md., Nashville, New York, Northern Virginia and Washington, D.C. as market where home values have exceeded sustainable levels.

Indianapolis and Pittsburgh—also on Amazon's HQ2 shopping list—CoreLogic sees as undervalued.

Real estate costs are just one of the factors the Seattle-based digital retailing giant is said to be considering in its hunt for the huge new employment site.

"Whatever decision Amazon makes will certainly be a boon for the selected city," Nothaft said.

North Texas housing analysts have said that if Amazon's HQ2 lands in D-FW the area won't have any problem housing the anticipated 50,000 jobs the new office center would create over 10 years.

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices are currently at record levels, having risen by more than 40 percent in the last four years.

CoreLogic estimates than Dallas-area home prices have risen about 6.4 percent in the last year.

Malcolm says

A very interesting article supporting the fact that some housing markets have become unsustainable. Amazon is literally concerned that employees will end up in foreclosure, which would cause labor problems.

https://phys.org/news/2018-02-amazon-hq2-finalists-overvalued-housing.html

Malcolm, this a very bad assumption you posted. Just propaganda crap.
Very silly assumption by Amazon. How the fuck do they know home prices will fall.
Most of their employees will have already own homes.
If Amazon thinks home prices will fall, they could tell their employees not to buy homes.
If home prices crash, is it just an Amazon problem, or the problem of the nation?
My opinion.....Amazon is focused on the HQ2 site that benefits them the most, not what home prices do.

If they pick Texas reasonable home prices will not be an issue. Urban sprawl being an understatement. Fortunately, in the near term, they have the land.

Strategist says

We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?

Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.

FortWayne says

Strategist says

We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?

Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.

If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened. Good thing trump isn't going to cut taxes, slash regulations on the financial industry, and raise government spending. Oh wait, never mind.

Cutting taxes is good unless you are a communist like Bernie.

bob2356 says

FortWayne says

Strategist says

We had the great RE crash 10 years ago. Who did it help?

Obama and the left to get elected. Those were the only real benefactors.

If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened. Good thing trump isn't going to cut taxes, slash regulations on the financial industry, and raise government spending. Oh wait, never mind.

FortWayne says

Cutting taxes is good unless you are a communist like Bernie.

The government borrowing money to give to the wealthy is good? How does that work?

Balancing the budget and paying down the debt is good., Things republicans are only interested in when out of power.

San Diego is experiencing a 10% decline in housing sales year over year. This is despite being back to full employment. Like the last time around, the median price continues to climb. This is due to top feeders buying expensive homes at a perceived bargain, in my opinion. The number of listings are growing, according to other more current articles that I am finding.

http://www.kpbs.org/news/2018/feb/07/san-diego-home-sales-down-10-percent-home-prices-7/

Does anyone want to debate whether the housing market in California is slowing down? In my opinion, starting to crash?

Yup, perusing Zillow, surprising number of foreclosures. Get the cash and buy at 60-70 percent "face" value on comps from bank.

Ceffer says

Yup, perusing Zillow, surprising number of foreclosures. Get the cash and buy at 60-70 percent "face" value on comps from bank.

Some of the valuations got so outrageous, I'm going to suggest that some homes will sell for 30-40% of their Zillow highs.

Hope the housing market holds up thru Sept. so I can sell my rental in Pasadena, CA.

Time to cash out.

It ain't over, 'til it's over. We may be seeing some of the final resets/recasts from the original bubble. I know there was a story or two in my area about folks hanging in there by their fingernails, but finally deciding to throw in the towel.

it's probably a scam, where people connected to government get their friends and family loans paid off by taxpayers, that sort of thing. while everyone else gets fucked with taxes.

that's how this government always operates.

Checking today, the trend I have been following seems to be holding. It is only houses above 2,000 s/f that are selling in my area. There are smaller homes listed, but those sales seem to have stopped.

Evan F. says

Hope the housing market holds up thru Sept. so I can sell my rental in Pasadena, CA.

Time to cash out.

What's the reason for not selling it now? It's the "hot" spring market right now in Realtor speak. If it's a multi-unit building you're probably fine, but if it's a house/condo, most people don't want to be looking to move in October/November if you go on the market in September. You guys got good weather, but you'd be starting to compete with the holidays and people not wanting to move that time of year. Just my $0.02

Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.

bob2356 says

If bush hadn't cut taxes, slashed regulations on the financial industry, and raised government spending that wouldn't have happened

Par for the course. Who signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall?

Malcolm says

Either somebody got a deal, or this is the beginning of severe pricing discounts in San Diego County.



This house sold for $205 per foot. It is 70s construction, but it looks like it was somewhat updated. For comparison, I sold for over $400 a foot for $445K last November. My house was under 1,100 square feet. 80s construction, but not even as nice as this house.

Anecdotal evidence is not indicative of anything, least of all the beginning of a housing crash.
This is what matter.

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/04/23/southern-california-home-prices-hit-record-highs-in-march-amid-slower-sales/
Southern California home prices soared to all-time highs in March, pushing values further out of reach for some buyers and causing others to stretch their finances more than expected.

Home sales, meanwhile, dipped from year-ago levels due mainly to a persistent lack of inventory.

Strategist says

Southern California home prices soared to all-time highs in March, pushing values further out of reach for some buyers and causing others to stretch their finances more than expected.

Home sales, meanwhile, dipped from year-ago levels due mainly to a persistent lack of inventory.

We'll have to see. A valid sale is hardly anecdotal evidence. If you look, the reason isn't lack of inventory, it is lack of sales at the lower level. This is significant because it shows what the smaller houses are potentially worth. The median price will go up, just like last time, but it is misleading, because it is reflecting discounted larger homes and a drop in the smaller ones. You are also corroborating my observations that sales are down 6-10%. That's actually pretty significant. I can show you pages of larger homes selling between 200-300 per square foot. When smaller homes sell for 200 a foot, like this one did, that is the price they were going for in 2004 in this area. I bought in that area in 2000 and have lived in San Diego since 1990, so I have a general feel for the county's price history. One last thing, I am now seeing multiple open house and for sale signs on corners, we are not hurting for inventory, it is growing.