patrick.net

Gee, it's lucky Cali has NIMBY. No new houses, no solar panels.

CovfefeButDeadly says

Strategist says

California is finally doing something right.
Wether you like it or not, renewable fuels is will kill fossil fuels for ever. By 2030 solar power will be almost free. The great savings from almost free fuel will result in a gigantic boost in living standards the world over. The future is good. Just wait and see.

Thats gonna help home affordablity. Im certain of it.

Solar panels are more economical than power from the grid. Your mortgage may go up hypothetically by lets say $100, but your electricity bill will go down by $200. You are better off. You also get a tax write off because your half price electricity cost is now factored into the mortgage.

OK, so if the neighbors tree shade my roof, do I still have to put up solar panels, or will my neighbors be forced to cut down their trees?

This is unconstitutional.

Not bad. I think a couple of other states try and put taxes on solar so the electric companies can make massive profits?

Yep, solar is coming. Not just in CA, but in other states over the next decade you will see solar roof shingles, solar road surfaces, and solar attached to may other structures - all connected to the grid. Now you smart engineer types need to get busy and develop a demand storage system for all that daylight generated power. Capacitors, paper batteries, electron spin, whatever you can think up. Also, get cracking on that room temperature superconductor to stop all that electrical resistance line loss. Without line loss, Niagara Falls could power everything east of the Mississippi. We are going to need all the electricity we can get when we go to a nation of electric self drive vehicles.

Strategist says

California is finally doing something right.
Wether you like it or not, renewable fuels is will kill fossil fuels for ever. By 2030 solar power will be almost free. The great savings from almost free fuel will result in a gigantic boost in living standards the world over. The future is good. Just wait and see.

Said that this morning, completely agree. I expect within 10 years, we won't even be metering electricity. Fortunately, I don't pay for electricity for my Bolt. You would not believe the wealth effect of not needing to pay for gasoline for your car.

WarrenTheApe says

So, with projected performance/economic advances in power storage (batteries, supercapacitors, etc.) yes...one could generate most if not all the energy one uses at the residential level. But making money selling excess to the utilities, that's going to be a goose that won't keep on giving.

But this is OK. It will just be the market saying "OK, we're good on electricity."
When the price gets that low, we collectively will sell to other states. Then, like I mentioned above, we won't even need electric meters. Everyone will just pay $10 a month for tapping in.

I find it noble knowing that everyone benefited from individuals investing in solar.

WarrenTheApe says

Also, it is ONLY affordable when you consider the feed-in-tariffs that the utilities are forced to buy your power at. But paying retail for wholesale power is economically unsustainable. Not to mention that the grid is not set up for this after roof-top solar gets to around 11% or so feed-in-tariff saturation.

Once solar power on rooftops gets close to zero, the feed in tariffs will be irrelevant. Anyone will be able to generate power for almost nothing.
Skyscrapers, apartments and factories that cannot generate their own power will need to rely on the grid. Remains to be seen how that will be addressed.

Nobody has said the punchline yet. New solar installs will be put on Time of Use metering schedules by 2020. Peak rates are from 4-9pm. Guess what ain't shining then? You can't avoid the duck. Got your Powerwall yet? There are some massive subsidies available right now for solar fed energy storage systems.
https://www.energysage.com/solar/solar-energy-storage/energy-storage-tax-credits-incentives/

WarrenTheApe says

You DO KNOW, right...that the State forces the utilities to pay solar roof homeowners RETAIL prices for their juice, right? Please explain how that is economically sustainable?

They don’t pay retail for electricity, they credit back at the tier you’re at. You just replace what you used. It”s like saying, not running a light bulb is the utility paying for retail electricity, because you didn’t need it.

It is sustainable because they don’t bill for the electricity, they bill for distribution. SDGE doesn’t generate anymore, they are power brokers. The guys without solar are basically the ones paying retail. SDGE needs to source less power and that is where they make money on the generation side.

Solar homes still pay a minimum charge of $8 a month. That is the cost for transmission and profit.

After this they'll mandate everyone must buy something else their billionnaires like Tom Steiner produce? This is just the beginning of slavery.

EBGuy says

Nobody has said the punchline yet. New solar installs will be put on Time of Use metering schedules by 2020. Peak rates are from 4-9pm

This is actually a good thing because it is easy to not use electricity at night. It is a marketplace repricing of electricity. Peak rates used to be during the day, now pricing is reflecting abundance and even excess supply during the daytime thanks to solar.

I am reminded of all of the naysayers who used to say solar wouldn’t make a dent, well they were wrong.

Also, don’t buy a Powerwall, it doesn’t make financial sense.

Seems like a sensible rule to me, as long as they actually BUILD some more houses! Makes sense for grid power consumption planning as well, making the new construction as close to “neutral” as you’re going to get. Solar shouldn’t add that much to a home price wise. Certainly less than your average realtor takes. An extra $10k won’t make the houses more expensive anyway, since they’ll be sold for the highest price the developers can ask. Really it just comes out of their profit.

Malcolm says

Also, don’t buy a Powerwall, it doesn’t make financial sense.

Yet.
The day will come when energy storage will be dirt cheap. At that point even utilities will be doomed. Imagine one day taking your 1000 KW powerwall the size of a laptop to Walmart for a quick charge.

Does it make sense in places like Pacifica, Humboldt and Mendocino counties where there is very little sun?

lostand confused says

Does it make sense in places like Pacifica, Humboldt and Mendocino counties where there is very little sun?

Pacifica is quite sunny in winter.

Strategist says

The day will come when energy storage will be dirt cheap.

.

Not anytime soon!

I want a windmill and bullet train with my new Ca home........plus no property tax and a 50% price discount.....and no homeless close by.

Satoshi_Nakamoto says

lostand confused says

Does it make sense in places like Pacifica, Humboldt and Mendocino counties where there is very little sun?

Pacifica is quite sunny in winter.

Yeah but does it make sense for non sunny climates? Bakersfield or Phoenix yup. But where I live, we get a few months of sun at most.

lostand confused says

Satoshi_Nakamoto says

lostand confused says

Does it make sense in places like Pacifica, Humboldt and Mendocino counties where there is very little sun?

Pacifica is quite sunny in winter.

Yeah but does it make sense for non sunny climates? Bakersfield or Phoenix yup. But where I live, we get a few months of sun at most.

Have no idea, but Germany is big on solar and it's often overcast there. BTW, solar panels don't like heat, so summer in Bakersfield could be not that great from the solar output point of view. Pure speculation, of course, as I don't have any hard numbers.

Malcolm says

Also, don’t buy a Powerwall, it doesn’t make financial sense.

You obviously didn't follow the links.
Under SGIP, the first 10 kWh receive a $400/kWh incentive, and the remaining 3.2 kWh are eligible for a $200/kWh incentive, worth a total of $4,640. That’s enough to cover almost the entire cost of purchasing the Powerwall equipment, which is priced at $5,500.
Incentives have fallen to $350/kWh, but are still quite generous when combined with the federal rebates. Plus you'll be the only guy with electricity on your block after the Big One hits.

EBGuy says

You obviously didn't follow the links.
Under SGIP, the first 10 kWh receive a $400/kWh incentive, and the remaining 3.2 kWh are eligible for a $200/kWh incentive, worth a total of $4,640. That’s enough to cover almost the entire cost of purchasing the Powerwall equipment, which is priced at $5,500.
Incentives have fallen to $350/kWh, but are still quite generous when combined with the federal rebates. Plus you'll be the only guy with electricity on your block after the Big One hits.

True, I did not. I did check it out and you missed the total cost. It doesn't make financial sense.

Component
Estimated Cost
Powerwall battery $5,500
Installation cost $2,000 to $4,000
Shipping, components and fees $3,000 to $4,000
SGIP value -$4,640
ITC value -$3,150 to -$4,050
Total cost (approximate) $2,710 to $4,810

I was originally just going by what they had told me at a Tesla store.

Strategist says

Yet.
The day will come when energy storage will be dirt cheap. At that point even utilities will be doomed. Imagine one day taking your 1000 KW powerwall the size of a laptop to Walmart for a quick charge.

This is the key point. Yes, I do agree that one day soon, completely off-grid will be cost effective, even dirt cheap, but also consider that the grid could become dirt cheap as well. Consider places where already a surplus of electricity makes the price go negative. I believe grid tied will become a $10 a month charge for as much as you want.

I just don't lose sleep over the potential for a power outage. In San Diego it happens once a decade. I even own a 100 amp hr battery for a small inflatable boat I have. I even have a small inverter. Another thing to consider is how electric cars can be used as electricity buckets. My Bolt has a 60KWH battery. I'd rather invest in a nice 3KW pure sine wave inverter and that would more than take care of a power outage. If nothing else, I can connect to the Internet from my iPhone, it even has a flashlight. Power outages just don't worry me.

Malcolm says

Strategist says

Yet.
The day will come when energy storage will be dirt cheap. At that point even utilities will be doomed. Imagine one day taking your 1000 KW powerwall the size of a laptop to Walmart for a quick charge.

This is the key point. Yes, I do agree that one day soon, completely off-grid will be cost effective, even dirt cheap, but also consider that the grid could become dirt cheap as well. Consider places where already a surplus of electricity makes the price go negative. I believe grid tied will become a $10 a month charge for as much as you want.

The grid costs a lot in overheads, maintenance of the power lines, billing etc. Even if the wholesale cost of electricity was to go to zero, these costs would still remain and go even higher, because wages etc keep going higher.
We are a long way from utilities being outdated, but when it happens, it happens suddenly. Look how quickly Kodak, an American icon collapsed when digital cameras arrived. Even oil companies will be obsolete because there is no way they can compete with roof top solar power at 9 cents/kwh, which equates to 3 cents per mile to drive an electric car. Elon Musk will go down in history as the entrepreneur who single handedly destroyed the multi trillion dollar oil industry.
Those who drive electric cars like you, see the astonishing value. I'm surprised at the stiff opposition to electric cars and renewable energy by Church goers. Fucking stupid.

Strategist says

The grid costs a lot in overheads, maintenance of the power lines, billing etc. Even if the wholesale cost of electricity was to go to zero, these costs would still remain and go even higher, because wages etc keep going higher.
We are a long way from utilities being outdated, but when it happens, it happens suddenly. Look how quickly Kodak, an American icon collapsed when digital cameras arrived. Even oil companies will be obsolete because there is no way they can compete with roof top solar power at 9 cents/kwh, which equates to 3 cents per mile to drive an electric car. Elon Musk will go down in history as the entrepreneur who single handedly destroyed the multi trillion dollar oil industry.
Those who drive electric cars like you, see the astonishing value. I'm surprised at the stiff opposition to electric cars and renewable energy by Church goers. Fucking stupid.

You can see the costs on your electric bill. The cost of transmission and distribution should be a separate line item. So, in theory, without generation costs, that is what it would cost you if you were subscribing to the utility. Yes, your scenario is an absolutely valid possible outcome. Another possible outcome is a completely new technology, or an excellent incremental improvement (like electric cars going from 30-60KWhrs with no increase in price). In five more years Powerwalls might be twice as valuable making it a real competitor to utilities, who in turn will reduce waste in their cost structure and get down to that $10 a month price point because they would be freely competing to get you to use them instead of trying to be self sufficient. I think most people will feel tethered to utilities for some time.

Malcolm says

Total cost (approximate) $2,710 to $4,810

Malcolm, thanks for the maths!
So $3k might not be too bad for battery backup piece of mind, plus you can your program your Powerwall to supply electricity during peak rates.
Using PG&E EV rate schedule A, peak rate is $.21 /kWhr higher during summer (6 months) and $.12/kWhr higher the rest of the year
Discharge battery during Peak rates (~5 kWhrs to maintain SOC) .
$.22 x 5kWhr x 182 days = $200.20
$.12 x 5kWhr x 183 days = $109.8
--------------------------------------------
Savings per year = $310
Payback in 10 years (battery warranty is for 10 years as well).

EBGuy says

Malcolm, thanks for the maths!
So $3k might not be too bad for battery backup piece of mind, plus you can your program your Powerwall to supply electricity during peak rates.
Using PG&E EV rate schedule A, peak rate is $.21 /kWhr higher during summer (6 months) and $.12/kWhr higher the rest of the year
Discharge battery during Peak rates (~5 kWhrs to maintain SOC) .
$.22 x 5kWhr x 182 days = $200.20
$.12 x 5kWhr x 183 days = $109.8
--------------------------------------------
Savings per year = $310
Payback in 10 years (battery warranty is for 10 years as well).

When I was reflecting on it, I was thinking there might be a value proposition for peak shaving. I'm still wondering if you would still use a PV system and how that plays in since it is producing at a lower tier rate. 10 years is still a little long for me, but if they get it to 5 years, I would say that it makes sense by itself without a PV solar system. If daytime rates fall low enough, a PowerWall will make more sense than a PV system. Interesting dilemma.