patrick.net

One question Logan. When the recession (big or small) is actually coming, are you going to call it ? Or will you be a perma bull ?

What will you be looking for as the early tells ? Perhaps the old inverted yield curve isn't going to work as well this time as in the past. What will be the signal this time ?

marcus says

Or will you be a perma bull ?

I am already presenting my model on facebook live on how to call the recession with economic data because if you just input my model post 1960 it has called every single recession. Now, each cycle is unique and myself my big call this year was for an inverted yield curve because I am staying true to my 1.60% -3% 10 year yield channel and the 2 year yield is pushing higher

However.... as always, economics is a process not a date... Mother economics she is a serial killer and she wants to get caught, she will leave you clues for a recession. Of course the stock market will get ahead of the economic data.

But... for this purpose here are some keys and most important factor now is that we are running into a prime age labor force growth cycle not a peak and decline like we saw in 2007.

1. Find the over investment thesis in a cycle
2. Fed is fighting Inflation and yields invert ( this process has already started)
3. Housing Starts and LEI ( leading economic indicators) fall 4-6 months straight prior to every recession post 1960
4. Then you should see unemployment claims rise with breath in sectors not just the sector that has the major over investment

If unemployment keeps going down we will have a major economic problem.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/28/shipping-retail-truck-driver-shortage-amazon.html
America needs 50,000 truck drivers ASAP

Strategist says

If unemployment keeps going down we will have a major economic problem.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/05/28/shipping-retail-truck-driver-shortage-amazon.html
America needs 50,000 truck drivers ASAP

Pay MOAR MONEY, motherfuckers.

Looking sharp there Logan.

Strategist says

If unemployment keeps going down we will have a major economic problem.

For now we are still good in terms of the Job openings to job gain numbers because we are still running double the jobs needed for population growth.

However, if Job openings head toward 8-9 million and job gains slow down to 80K per month that is a sign of a brutal labor shortage of just human bodies that productivity could not solve.

I was looking for peak JOLTS to be around 6,210,000 but the last print was near 6,660,000. If the cycle goes on for a few more years this could be the case because the biggest age group in America are ages 23-29.

I am really keeping an eye out of JOLTS data in the next 12 months

One thing that I have noticed in this economic cycle

The lack of understanding demographics, productivity and inflation has really put people into a spiral of useless ideological theories.
Irony is that real wage growth has had its best decade in a long time but because people don't know that the rate of growth of productivity and inflation has fallen they don't adjust the numbers.

To be fair, most people really shouldn't know this stuff and media doesn't really highlight it, so you a nation that is confused and in that confusion they missed economic history.

Like I said, time to end welfare and rexamine SS Disability claims.

If there’s still a labor shortage, continue to deport illegals, but implement a guest worker program.

CovfefeButDeadly says

Like I said, time to end welfare and rexamine SS Disability claims.

This has been an interesting take the disability thesis.

The job market is so good that its a miracle since 2014 people have been coming off disability to work again at a snail pace but still the number is very small to the total workforce and total people working.

A lot of these people on disability are really disabled, they can't walk, some can't breath properly without a device, etc etc but the recent spike post the Great Recession is starting to wind it self off and heading toward pre Great Recession trend.

In any case, this is and has always been a small pool of people anyway that were claiming disability but really could work.

On another note, I am deeming the retail apocalypse as the biggest fake news economic story over the last 100 years

That was another pathetic terrible thesis, dear lord!

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10155740365753250/?type=3

Hi Logan, Can you discourse on a possible limit to the amount of sovereign debt that any one country that has its own currency can issue? Many claim that there is a cannot-pay-off limit to amount of US sovereign debt that can be issued, for example.

MisterLefty says

Can you discourse on a possible limit to the amount of sovereign debt that any one country that has its own currency can issue?

U.S. is unique because it has the biggest economy, biggest military, it has a prime age labor force growth model where other developed countries can't and because of the sheer size of the dollar dominance it has will always issue as much debt it needs without really creating any currency induced inflation

EURO was created to off set the dollar dominance and this is why no one will leave the Euro, no matter how much the MMT people don't want to believe in this, it is the reality of the world

The rest of the world has limits and if their economy is tied to a commodity then their currency will be an issue in a down turn, Russia was a good example of this recently with their oil to ruble correlation

jazz_music says

In your other picture you had a cigar

Strategist says

America needs 50,000 truck drivers ASAP

"Autonomous trucks will haul your stuff before you ride in a self-driving car.
***
"Long-haul trucks spend most of their time on the open road where the driver doesn't have to account for pedestrians, cyclists, traffic lights, or other complex variables," says Scheinman. "It just has to stay within its lane and keep a safe distance from fellow travelers. Consequently, it's easier to program a system that can drive itself on the highway than in an urban or even suburban environment—much easier."

In fact, Scheinman says the functionality is already here. "I recently participated in a [semi-autonomous] truck demo on US-101 in Northern California. The driver did nothing for more than an hour. The truck simply drove itself." However, he admits the ability to self-drive on the highway is about two years away from being commercially available."

Basically, as truckers approach retirement, they are getting replaced by programmers. The future might resemble current ship traffic in crowded ports: a local pilot climbs aboard for only the local part of the journey, then leaves. The truck might drive itself from highway entrance to exit, reducing the number of human drivers required.

Logan Mohtashami says

EURO was created to off set the dollar dominance and this is why no one will leave the Euro, no matter how much the MMT people don't want to believe in this, it is the reality of the world

Countries have already left and will continue to distance themselves form the EUrocrats until they adopt Europe first policies. Yeah the Euro will survive but it's current abysmal performance is directly correlated to the failed EU globalist leftist policies (poor performance of DB has been weighing on it as well lately). The German Deutschmark would easily trade 2x the Euro if they reintroduced it. Sure the EU will stay but there will be some more shifts. At least with finally accepting Italy's new - democratically elected - government they can focus on MEGA ;)

mell says

Countries have already left

Whenever someone even talks about leaving the Euro the bond market puts them back in line with a reality check when yields head higher

Italy has bigger problems to deal with that aren't easy to fix

Much more calm this time around, market made its point the past 2 times

Logan Mohtashami says

I find this chart a little bit perplexing. Usually productivity increases when unemployment is increasing, because the most unproductive workers are the first to lose their jobs. Vice versa when unemployment is falling, because businesses are forced to hire the least productive bums.

Strategist says

I find this chart a little bit perplexing.

That is probably because the caption is wrong. Productivity is not falling. It is growing at a slower rate than in the past. The past rates of high growth in China and Japan resulted probably from mechanization and automation, and shifting from agriculture to manufacturing, delivering huge increases in productivity partly by copying or importing advanced equipment and techniques. As countries catch up with the leading edge of technology, their productivity growth rates fall into line with the already industrialized countries.

Also, the process of recruiting, hiring, and training people interferes with productivity. If a software engineer must travel to a college campus to interview 20 possible recruits in order to fill 2 jobs, then (s)he cannot code during that time. If each hire requires 4 interviews, including travel, then the hiring process consumes a lot of otherwise potentially productive time, reducing productivity.

Strategist says

I find this chart a little bit perplexing.

Rate of growth of productivity is falling like the chart shows, this is similar to inflation and wages

Cumulative growth is always rising but the rate is just much slower

Inflation is the same trend direction

Cumulative chart looks like




Rate of growth looks like

Strategist says

unproductive workers are the first to lose their jobs. Vice versa when unemployment is falling,

Another way to look at this and this is my most favorite productive chart ever as you can see we don't have much going with construction for a long time now

If we can ever get productivity growing in construction that would be very beneficial for this country




Recent data in total productivity

Just like in wages, people think that wages are falling for years but it is just the rate of growth, even if you broken them down to many sub categories, we haven't had a negative wage cycle but the rate of growth is slow recently but still much higher than inflation itself

curious2 says

potentially productive time, reducing productivity.

This is also a good point productivity if done by a company through either investments or training does initially take away from productivity data as it takes time train people, so if people were looking for some boom in productivity rate of growth through investments that were supposed to be happening this year you really need to wait until 2019 to see it in the data in a more clean setting.

Strategist says

most unproductive workers are the first to lose their jobs

Strategist says

because businesses are forced to hire the least productive bums.

On another note I was on Bloomberg Financial recently talking about your favorite subject

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2018-05-23/there-is-no-such-thing-as-affordable-housing-in-america

Thanks for a great post Logan. 2018 the year of fake economic data.

https://www.ft.com/content/c8aa1f1c-faae-11e7-a492-2c9be7f3120a

everything says

2018 the year of fake economic data.

The real interesting data line going out now for the next 12 months is this

We have near 6,600,000 job openings and civilian labor force that is unemployed currently is at 6,065,000 ( Some of this) natural discharge of layoffs that happen each month. Hence why a 0% unemployed rate is impossible and why unemployment claims cant go to zero either.

Breakdown the data even more real unemployment rate is roughly 3% and below today when you breakdown the data to a prime age labor force factor model

Men and Women ages 20 and above are Under 3.5% combined, teenagers are running at 12.8% but college grads are running at 2% unemployment rate 3.2% with some college