patrick.net

White collar people most 100% of the time are liquidated when Commie Regimes take hold.

White Collar workers should be the biggest NRA proponents on the planet, and should have an arsenal that would be suited for a Graboid invasion.

Rin says

Once expert system/machine learning tools eliminate 80% of these jobs, which include places like BNY-Mellon, JP Morgan, MetLife, etc, you'll see a massive cry for socialistic reforms like Universal Income, etc.

What about the people creating and improving the automation? How do you eliminate those jobs?

Goran_K says

What about the people creating and improving the automation? How do you eliminate those jobs?

That person was me, when I was full time. We automated just about everything (aside from sales), so that we could use our funds to hire the best prop trader out there.

Those ppl are the last who become rich. Afterwards, they retire with millions and let the next gen AI do their work.

Tenpoundbass says

White collar people most 100% of the time are liquidated when Commie Regimes take hold.

That's the poor man's (sorry, the Revolution of the Proletariat), as the Leninists like to put it. That was too 1920-ish when AI wasn't in existence.

In the 2030s, it'll be a whole lot different when a physician assistant (1/3 the cost of an MD) with a handheld device can do the work of a cardiologist but then, send the patient off to the Caymans for a planned surgery at 1/4 the costs here. But then, in ten more years, 2040, even that medical tourism task will be done by a 'bot, stateside.

The end result ... with 10-20% of today's headcount, ALL of the white collar work will be performed by AI software/'bots within a generation.

And even that remaining crowd, who're not let's say owners themselves, will be facing their own obsolescence in time. Regardless, with 80% of today's paper pushers out of the job market, they'll be a massive cry for socialism.

But until then, the current system remains in place.

Rin says

But until then, the current system remains in place.

and looks like it's going the other direction:

"No Experience Necessary": Employers Slash Job Requirements Amid Worker Shortage.

In short, Americans looking to break into their dream career or land their first job are in luck - as employers are having trouble finding employees using the stringent job requirements they were able to demand during the recession, when millions were out of work and HR departments were flooded with applicants.

Glaser says around 25% of the agency's corporate clients have made drastic changes to their job requirements since the start of 2018 - such as skipping drug tests or criminal background checks, and dropping requirements for a higher degree or even a high-school diploma.

The lack of highly qualified candidates has left employers with three options: Offer more money upfront, lower standards, or retrain current staff to perform other necessary skills.

In June, BofA announced plans to hire 10,000 more retail workers from low-income neighborhoods over the next five years, with or without college degrees, according to Chris Payton, head of talent acquisition.

Will the music ever stop? Of course it will. Until then, basement-dwelling boomerang millennials can peel themselves off that vinyl couch and get to work - since they're all out of excuses.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-29/no-experience-necessary-employers-relax-job-requirements-amid-low-unemployment

MrMagic says

BofA announced plans to hire 10,000 more retail workers from low-income neighborhoods over the next five years, with or without college degrees

Many companies like BofA are poorly managed. I know computer consultants there, who can't even find the inventory of apps and what they do, nevermind their code maintenance, upgrade paths, and security processes. Business analysts have also complained about their Byzantine practices, which make it hard to get to the business clients, exactly what they need w/o running into daily snafus. In effect, theses types of firms end up hiring up to 3 ppl to do 1 person's job.

And this is really, the nature of white collar work out there.

Just recently, a new CIO to a Boston based company froze all hires, until a full inventory of system's requirements were taken and metrics gathered. In other words, he was thinking in terms of 5 years out because each new hire is an additional headcount which is a fixed cost, that can only be displaced by a layoff round. Yes, I'd met him at a healthcare conference and we talked a lot about these kinds of issues.

So if you want to run an enterprise, maximize your output while minimizing your hiring. At this point in time, there are enough English speaking centers in places like Manila (remember, India & China aren't the world), to keep an American shop, 7x24, where a stateside employee's output is augmented by using overnight resources.

Rin says

So if you want to run an enterprise, maximize your output while minimizing your hiring. At this point in time, there are enough English speaking centers in places like Manila (remember, India & China aren't the world), to keep an American shop, 7x24, where a stateside employee's output is augmented by using overnight resources.

So we should outsource whores and employees?

Onvacation says

So we should outsource whores and employees?

Hoeing in America is illegal and thus, it's already outsourced. Remember, Montreal is 5.5 hrs from Boston and thus, serves as the northeast hoeing destination.

As for employees, well, that's a continual, ongoing process, until robotics/AI can replace that function completely.

Rin says

Many companies like BofA are poorly managed.

I just got the word, both UBS and HSBC are poorly managed. Yes, when AI takes over, they'll be a lot of blood letting.

Onvacation says

Rin says

So if you want to run an enterprise, maximize your output while minimizing your hiring. At this point in time, there are enough English speaking centers in places like Manila (remember, India & China aren't the world), to keep an American shop, 7x24, where a stateside employee's output is augmented by using overnight resources.

So we should outsource whores and employees?

That 24x7 thing with overseas shop is not as beneficial and time-saving as it often touted. We've moved from having all of our group in US to 2/3 of it now sitting overseas. The experience is exact opposite of how it was sold: instead of handing over unfinished task at the EOB and finding it finished or significantly progressed in the morning we often find a question or request for clarification, etc. So, whatever could've taken 1-2 days if done by local staff is now taking 2-5 days. Not saving any time (or much money, really) but some managers now have much bigger organisations and corresponding uplift of their status.

AI is pure Psyops LARPery.

Elon Musk lost billions in destroyed parts for his Tesla cars relying on AI.
He now laments a human is required for every AI Robot Station.

Where outsourcing fails is with poorly managed companies, in other words, a vast majority of them.

When I'd started the firm, our most important goal was to grow w/o bloated headcount and then, re-direct those funds to hiring the best prop trader.

As a result, outsourcing was 'never sold' to us. Instead, we did all the work ourselves and little by little, documenting everything, got additional resources trained, in a cordoned off way, to insure long term quality and consistency. There were reports which ran daily and I was able to check up on things at 4 in the morning. This was the Philippines, not India, as Bangalore's a joke and well known for poorly performing teams. The fact that the C-level execs in the Fortune 1000 went for it at once, indicates their complete lemming-like mentality.

Sure, if my friend were still in Ann Arbor MI, a lot of it could have been a Univ of Michigan back office, both keeping the work in the US and at a lower cost but w/o him around, it wasn't a feasible strategy.

Tenpoundbass says

He now laments a human is required for every AI Robot Station.

This is what being an early adopter entails. Sure, in the beginning, a lot of stuff will break and they'll be a lot of human technicians around to solve them. I wouldn't expect AI to replace brick/mortar type of jobs in the early stages.

The industries which will be hit the hardest are places like MetLife, which collects premiums but does little else but sell insurance products. When those actuaries are replaced by AI, easily liberating millions of dollars, you'll be seeing the beginnings of the end of white collar work. Even as we type, AI is replacing paralegal support at JP Morgan.

Bull crap! The problem Elon was having spite the best mill work and precision machining in the world. Heat temp and pressure variations tweak screw holes and panels then screws don't line up. A human knows when to bend the panel, or stick if finger under there and try to bend the screw or stud into the hole. There's a finesse to humanity that AI will never achieve. AI is great for spotting that one rotten grape out of 1,000 as they fall past on a conveyor belt and blast it out with a jet of air. But not so good at breaking out the Dremel and making changes to a part to make it fit. Instead it just bashed, thrashed and crashed pieces when it wouldn't fit. What kind of Asshole invents an AI robot with impatient frustration that will wreck your shit like a Jaded Employee?

Tenpoundbass says

Heat temp and pressure variations tweak screw holes and panels then screws don't line up.

Hello ... I have a degree in Applied Chemistry/Chemical Engineering. There's a reason why ChemEs still have a job today, despite it not being the prestigious profession that it was back in the 60s or 70s.

What you're describing is the finesse that we'd learned in Unit Operations and other laboratory based assignments where iterative learning and handling was a part of the curricula. And yes, you do need some road miles before you develop an instinct for it. A distillation tray does not follow some theoretical thermodynamic diagram, it's an continuous work in progress but the heuristics can be learned.

Still, despite it all, at most, places like Allied Signal, Dow Chemical, etc, do not hire ChemEs in droves anymore. They'd figured out how to get the most of their existing staff and use a lot of contract labor to take care of the rest. And this was long before AI.

So as I'd said before, the brick/mortar stuff will not be eliminated by AI in the beginning.

In the beginning, it's accountants, paralegals/associate attorneys, actuaries, and a slew of other back office types of support jobs. Right now, that's the bulk of white collar workforce.

Tenpoundbass says

There's a finesse to humanity

That's why they'll be jobs for physician assistants (PAs) in 2040 but not for a general practitioner MD doctor. The PA has that human angle, which is needed in clinics whereas MDs would be an overpriced generalist when only a specialist is required. Yes, that PA will have patient data wirelessly streaming back and forth w/ an AI server for diagnosis and treatment protocols.

AOC should read this thread.

Here's why I'll always have money and be working and be way a head of Mewhinials.
I'm not trying to automate my job away. And I know the MeWhinals are too stupid to ever pull it off.
Who is doing all of the R&D for these Idiots, Sponge Bob Squarepants.

Why I am pro-Vyrdism and not pro-Universal Basic Income (UBI)

That article makes Vyrdism sound like the Guilds from the earlier skilled craftsmen days.

HeadSet says

That article makes Vyrdism sound like the Guilds from the earlier skilled craftsmen days.

Except that no one with money, will be paying the average Joe who owns a robot or two.

When expert systems, robotics, etc, become ubiquitous, the owners of capital will not need the inputs from the small town robot owners. They'll have enough resources to pretty much do all the 'paid for work' with their machines.

If you think about it, using Star Wars as a metaphor, if the Galactic Empire was as sophisticated as it was, Luke's Uncle Owen and Aunt Beru wouldn't even be moisture farmers as the Empire will have so many mobile and stationary units all over the place, that a three men mom & pop shop wouldn't be needed, even on a place as remote as Tatooine.