▲
10
0
▼

There will be no "Blue Wave", change my mind!


 invite response                
2018 May 14, 8:51am   79,502 views  699 comments

by Goran_K   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  



Yesterday former Bill Clinton advisor Dick Morris told radio host on New York's AM 970 that he believes the "blue wave" that Democrats are expecting to give them back the Senate and House will not materialize, and polling has backed him up.

Last week, CNN's mid term poll showed that Democrats only had a 3 point advantage, well within the margin of error, and considering that CNN is known for "oversampling" Democrats in its own polls, this is troubling for the DNC.

Additionally, a recent poll from Reuters (left leaning) has shown that Millennials are leaving the Democrat party in droves. Democrat membership in the 18-34 demographic (the bread and butter of the DNC) dropped 9% over the past 2 years, most of them becoming "independents".

"I think that [Democrats] see fool’s gold in these scandals," Morris said. "They’re putting everything behind the Stormy Daniels scandal and Michael Cohen … and the country doesn’t give a damn."

That's when Morris dropped his prediction.

"There is no blue wave coming," Morris exclaimed. "There is a red wave. And what makes it red is the blood of the Democratic Party."

Here's my official take. I believe the GOP will LOSE seats in the house but will not give it up to the DNC. I believe the GOP will GAIN seats in the senate, keeping their majority. This will mean that Trump will have both houses of congress for his entire term.

« First        Comments 618 - 657 of 699       Last »     Search these comments

618   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:16pm  

Okay I accept marcuses modified, changed small time $100 wager. I usually don’t get out of bed for less than $2k but Marcus convinced me. Bet confirmed.
619   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:18pm  

Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus where you at? You owe me money buddy.


Where did he confirm the $1000 bet?


He owes me at least $100.

I’m going to donate it to the Nevada GOP.


I never saw Marcus confirm any wager

He considered your reputation and wisely asked how he could hold you to the wager because you giving your word isn’t worth much


I could cover $1,000 bets more than 2,000 times. I even proved it to iwog when he came back for a little bit and sent him away from PatNet sulking and crying. It was funny as shit.
620   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:19pm  

Aphroman says
FortWayneIndiana says
Aphroman says
Goran_K says
Marcus you owe me a cool $1,000. Do you prefer PayPal, Venmo or square cash?

I can accept any.


Is this legal?


Yeah very much so.


How do you figure?

@Patrick you going to take FortWayneIndiana word that facilitating a wager is very much so legal on your site?


It’s a gentleman’s wager. Don’t worry I won’t hurt Marcus. He’s safe with me.
621   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

Goran_K says
Now you’re changing the bet.


I have a screen shot of

marcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?
622   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:


I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
623   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:20pm  

curious2 says

Are you sure about that?

Besides, Florida voters amended the state constitution today, so the electorate may change significantly by 2020:


I voted against that, it's sad it passed.

I have no problem with non-violent felons voting again. But a robber who uses a gun or knife in a crime ought to have to petition for his voting rights back after showing he's been out of trouble, nose clean for at least 5 years after his sentence ends. Killers should never get their rights back except if they've been Mother Theresa, going beyond the call of civic duty, after release.
624   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:21pm  

marcus says
Goran_K says
Now you’re changing the bet.


I have a screen shot of

marcus says
Goran_K says
Uh because they’re wrong?


What do you say we make a $100 bet. If it's 3 I win, if it's 5 you win, and 4 is a wash.

You're sure it's not 3 right ?


I have a screen shot of this comment and the ones that follow.

And for the record I was talking about net gains, not flips, whatever that means. I believe the net gain for Republicans looks like 2 or 3 no ?


What are you talking about? The Dems have not flipped a senate seat yet.
625   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:26pm  

IT was 51 - 49

this says it's now 53 - 47 .

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-forecast.html

That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?

What you take the gain for republicans and add it to the loss for democrats to come up with 4 ?

Wtf ?

Republicans will pick up either 2 or 3 seats in the senate, no ?
626   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:29pm  

marcus says
That's a net gain of 2 seats. What are you talking about ?



NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-senate-elections.html

There's still the potential to pick up Montana, too, which would be 5.

And Arizona, which isn't really a pick up, but Flake was a major NeverTrump PITA, so it's kind of a pickup if Sinema is beaten off.
627   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 9:30pm  

Marcus just pay me my $100. Scott was the 4th flipped seat.
628   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:42pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
NYT says three, and it hasn't called Florida for some bizarre reason, even though everybody else has. That would be 4.


That would be 3. 54 - 51 = 3 OH, is it becasue they aren't counting Nevada ? Why is that ?

No, that's not it. I still don't get it. But then I haven't been watching the tube.
629   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 6, 9:53pm  

Marcus:

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.
630   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:55pm  

Why does 538 have it as most likely to end up being net gain of 3 and NYT (your link) shows it at 53 republicans now, up from 51 ? with an equal number of undeclared on each side, or perhaps one more for republicans.
631   NDrLoR   2018 Nov 6, 9:56pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Florida

Headline:

DeSantis defeats Gillum in RACIALLY CHARGED Florida campaign that followed Trump’s playbook

No one saw that coming, did they? In other words, he was the perfect candidate except for his race?
632   marcus   2018 Nov 6, 9:57pm  

Well see in the end. It was 51 republicans in the senate yesterday, I think it will be 54 when this is all over, maybe only 53. I'm out.
633   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 10:01pm  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
Marcus:

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.


lol I posted the same list.
634   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 10:13pm  

I’m surprised at how close James and Hugin got to flipping the seats in their states. Both of those guys got out spent like 10 to 1.
635   Goran_K   2018 Nov 6, 10:24pm  

Aphroman says
Damn Ocasio Cortez won the House Seat in NY, i bet that triggers millions of SJW Trumpcucks once they catch wind of it.


I disagree. Ocasio Cortez can only help especially if she gets tv time.
636   CBOEtrader   2018 Nov 7, 4:25am  

Herdingcats says
Aphroman says
WOW 114 million voters hit the voting booths today.


I'd say blue tsunami, if they had taken all of Congress. Does just taking back the house qualify as a blue wave?


Its less than historical average so no, not even close.

Still unfortunate D's won the house.
637   marcus   2018 Nov 7, 6:30am  

So what is the net pick up in Senate seats for republicans ?

Is that known yet ?
638   anonymous   2018 Nov 7, 6:37am  

Florida, Scott took from Nelson (D) = Pickup
Indiana, Braun took from Donnely (D) = Pickup
North Dakota, Cramer took from Heitkamp (D = Pickup.
Missouri, Hawley took from McCaskill (D) = Pickup.

Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.
639   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 6:48am  

Aphroman says
Damn Ocasio Cortez won the House Seat in NY, i bet that triggers millions of SJW Trumpcucks once they catch wind of it.


Do not think most Republicans would care between her and the the Democrat she defeated in the primary.

But this may bring something interesting to watch. We may see a battle between the Democratic Socialists and the Democratic Geriatrics. Is Ocasio Cortez going to rally the other "young" Democrats behind ideas like abolish ICE, free college, and Universal Free Health Care, or is Old Nancy and crew going to swat her down? Even though Ocasio Cortez took out Nancy's main contender in the Primary, maybe this new crop of Democrats would insist on a different Speaker this time over Nancy.
640   marcus   2018 Nov 7, 6:49am  

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
641   Shaman   2018 Nov 7, 9:41am  

The Democrats in the house may now set the agenda. Perhaps they’ll be better at that than the GOP was. Perhaps they’ll spend all their energy on “investigation” of everyone they don’t like.
The first will reward them, and Trump will work with them. The second will lead to punishment in 2020.

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.
642   mell   2018 Nov 7, 9:54am  

Quigley says
The Democrats in the house may now set the agenda. Perhaps they’ll be better at that than the GOP was. Perhaps they’ll spend all their energy on “investigation” of everyone they don’t like.
The first will reward them, and Trump will work with them. The second will lead to punishment in 2020.

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.


Yep. That's why the market is up as well. In anticipation that nobody can point fingers anymore and that there actually may be some bi-partisan work getting done while volatility is out with the checks and balances. Dems have a chance to make up for their disastrous results in 2016 if they go back to more heartland type Democrats towards the middle such as Collins from ME. And kick out the shrieking batshit nutter cat-lady pound-me-too harpies. Let's see if they can do it, even Perez yesterday sounded halfway decent.
643   anonymous   2018 Nov 7, 10:07am  

marcus says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5
644   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 10:10am  

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.
645   anonymous   2018 Nov 7, 10:13am  

PrivilegedtobeWhite says
marcus says
PrivilegedtobeWhite says
Still waiting on Arizona and Montana, but Republican candidates are both slightly in the lead.


If I understand it correctly then (and I don't) it will be a net pick up of 2 ?

They had 51 and when the dust settles they will have 53 ?
It's already a net pickup of 3, with a potential of 5
Looks like Montana went blue, so potential pickup of 4 depending on Arizona.
646   mell   2018 Nov 7, 11:05am  

HeadSet says
I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country.

The two parties working together on immigration means the Dems and Repubs will come together against the Trump supporters to push open borders. Remember, Trump is not really a Republican. He only ran as a Republican because as as an Independent, he would have got nowhere, and he could not run as a Democrat because he knew the Hillary nomination was baked in. In reality, he annexed the Republican party after usurping the Bushies and is trying to transform the Republican party from the right of center wing of the Demopublican Party to a more nationalist party that emphasizes pride in America, curtails illegal immigration, brings home manufacturing, and makes allies pay their fare share of defense.


There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders. It's definitely a risk that policies go mainstream by going bipartisan, but Trump also energized Repub cucks to be more self-confident. Ultimately you have to work with what your constituents want, and I don't see that years of gridlock would be seen in Trump's favor. If it ever becomes unlivable should there be - which I don't project - a leftoid wave destroying the MAGA, you have options now since parts of Europe have gone more MAGA than Trump. Italy, Hungary, Poland, Austria, all beautiful countries, rich of economical and natural (if you're not married) beauty and MAGA leaders. Or wait til Ballsonaro has cleaned up Brazil. Gotta think global these days, these countries would all love more straight white pillars of society.
647   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 11:20am  

There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching (save WV).
648   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 7, 11:24am  

Quigley says

I would actually really like to see the two parties work together to get good stuff done for the country. All this bickering and resistance is bad for everyone. Perhaps this will be a better result than if the GOP swept both houses. But only if the Democrats regain their sanity. More open border communist crap will just doom us.

Also Trump will ironically have more sway over the next budget. Pelosi can’t pretend it wasn’t her who wrote the budget he vetoes. He swore to work on the budget in the next year, and I bet he does stand firm this time. Except this time he won’t have to stand firm against his own party. He will have a great foil in Pelosi to stand firm against.


Damn Quigley, you have been on fire with some good observations. Noticing the punishment for Kavanaugh, anywhere the Senate Contest was anything like a fight, was spot on. Manchin was the only Dem to vote FOR Kavanaugh and even though he was in Red WV, he got re-elected.

Trump pre-positioned a bit of a talking point before the election: A promise of a 10% middle class tax cut on top of the big tax cut that was just implemented.

For the next two years "We wanted to pass a 10% tax cut, but the Democratic Congress won't allow it" if the Democrats act feisty, and as further motivation for Republicans and Fiscal-minded Independents in 2020.

And yes, now the Dems own the budget.

I wonder if the Democrat Deficit Hawks will still be screeching going forward
649   mell   2018 Nov 7, 11:25am  

HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.
650   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 11:27am  

Trump can just enforce the laws on the books. That will clamp down on immigration just dandy.

Sanctuary Cities, and maybe Sanctuary states.

Motel 6 just got sued for turning over guest names to ICE. Motel 6 will even have to pay actual illegal aliens damages from "violation of privacy."

Trump will have an uphill battle enforcing immigration laws. He will get extreme push back by Dems and Repubs that want low wage labor, Dems who see votes in illegals, and virtue signaling Dem citizens who are in positions not to be hurt by an influx of illegals.
651   HeadSet   2018 Nov 7, 11:30am  

mell says
HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.


Collins is a Republican. I knew you meant Manchin from WV, so I corrected my post.
652   mell   2018 Nov 7, 11:37am  

HeadSet says
mell says
HeadSet says
There are even politicians on the Dem side that don't want open borders.

They will not vote against the caucus on immigration policy, just like no Democrat went against the Kavanaugh lynching.


Collins did. It's a start but they need to show more.


Collins is a Republican. I knew you meant Manchin from WV, so I corrected my post.


You're right. We shall see if the Dems will dial the leftoid nutter setting back a bit now that they have some fiscal and economic responsibility.
653   MisdemeanorRebel   2018 Nov 7, 11:41am  

We're going to see how divided government is, and it's not going to be like Dem House and Reagan in 1980s, or even the Rep House and Clinton in the 90s, which was far less hostile and combative than people think - Clinton was really a conservative Southern Democrat and the distance on many issues was small.

But now we have a Neoliberal-Socialist SJW House against somebody who in any time from 1940 to 2010 would be basically a Centrist.
654   marcus   2018 Nov 8, 11:14pm  

FPBT says
Sure sounds like Marcus meant plus


Not only did I say that I meant plus three, it was understood. But a couple of right wingers in this thread didn't even know, that it took republicans flipping three just to keep it at 51 republicans.

Note this back and forth:

Goran_K says
marcus says
Goran_K says
That is pretty accurate. But I think the fifth senate seat is coming.


Why is 538 still saying +3.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

I have to assume they are more on top of this than you or I.

Perhaps west coast ?


Uh because they’re wrong?


I made it very clear that I was talking about net change. IT is was clear that both Goran and two scoops thought that republican flips meant net increases, when there were other factors at play.
655   marcus   2018 Nov 8, 11:17pm  

But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).
656   anonymous   2018 Nov 9, 7:22am  

APHAman says
marcus says
But also he was joking about me owing him $1000. I think.

Actually if we had made that bet, I might still be winning it. But we didn't. The bet that I did offer, I almost surely wouldn't lose (they would have to be net up 5 for me to lose the bet I offered, which he did not accept).


It’s odd that people will talk shit for months when it doesn’t mean anything, then when it’s time to get some skin in the game, the cower in the corner hoping mommee will save them. Maybe that’s why they always support Republicans and chide ‘liberals’. They’re happy to lose their freedoms to avoid having any skin in the game.
You two need to stop being so mean
657   HappyGilmore   2018 Nov 10, 7:00am  

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says
For posterity:





So, let's recap. As I tried to tell all of you, Nate was almost perfect. Dems are expected to win 38 seats when all is said and done and votes are done counting in CA.

The RCP polling average is going to be pretty damn close as well with Dems +7 or +7.5

My favorite--GA6 went to Dems this go around. Just needed a better candidate than Ossoff.

And as I tried to tell McGee--Republicans have lost suburban soccer Moms for a long time. Dems consistently won all types of suburban districts.

Typically, the party out of power wins in the midterms because the other party doesn't show up to vote. in 2018, Trump got his base out and they voted. But he has alienated so many former Republicans that they still lost. So there's no reason to think he'll do any better in 2020.

OK-had to come back to gloat. Happy out.

« First        Comments 618 - 657 of 699       Last »     Search these comments

Please register to comment:

api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste