patrick.net

Does anyone know what the typical compound growth rates are for viruses, like influenza?

Going from 201 to 1300 in 5 days is a compound daily growth rate of ~45%

I know this is a small data sample, but compound growth at a rate like that is crazy. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the flu had growth spurts like that too during peak times in the winter. But to imagine if growth compounded at a rate near this for a few weeks....holy shit.



HeadSet says

So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?

I ordered some on wed, but they're backordered for 1 more week.

I already stockpile food (few hundred lbs of beans/rice/etc) and some water, so I'm good there. But I think I'm going to start stockpiling other stuff too in preparation of the near future. If this thing really takes off, I want to have plenty of supplies so that I don't need to go out into contaminated retail stores, as well as accept contaminated delivery boxes into my home. I want to get it now/soon while there's no worry about a sick UPS driver, or sick employees making my products. If things got really bad, not only could it be risky to expose yourself to sick people in public, but sick people, or scared people, may stop going to work, which will break down supply chains, making supplies harder to get.

Ima git it while the gettins good.

Ima git it while the gettins good.

Do not forget the bleach.

Today death toll climbs to 106
Confirmed cases in China soars to 4,515

Death toll is only ~30% higher than yesterday. But # of cases up 65% in 1 day from 2,744 yesterday.

Odd there is no talk about a vaccine.

Vaccines will take months - if not a year.

HeadSet says

Odd there is no talk about a vaccine.

Don't think it happens that fast. I'd think months at the minimum. Various biotechs said to be working on it.

This won't even put a dent in China's overpopulation problem.

For whatever it’s worth and for comparison purposes. This was what my Hongkongese friend sent me last night. He said over 4,500 cases now and 106 deaths. A good spike.

Pure coincidence that China's premier virus lab, studying EBOLA and SARS, is in the heart of Wuhan.

Friends in chicago tell me Chinatown is in lockdown. None of the restaurants or shops are open. Meanwhile, next neighborhood over is full of Mexicans who dont give a shit, every restaurant and store open.

Not sure what that tells us

CBOEtrader says

Friends in chicago tell me Chinatown is in lockdown. None of the restaurants or shops are open. Meanwhile, next neighborhood over is full of Mexicans who dont give a shit, every restaurant and store open.

Not sure what that tells us

Silly. It tells us Mexicans love their Corona.

Thank god you can take preventive measures-drink.

2 days have passed, and the growth rate continues steady in the mid 40's -

now were at
201 cases on 21st
4515 cases on 28th

= ~48% daily growth rate

This could bc very good for US manufacturing, depending on how long it goes on over there, and whether it comes here in any significant way.

Not rejoicing, just saying.

Hircus says

2 days have passed, and the growth rate continues steady in the mid 40's -

now were at
201 cases on 21st
4515 cases on 28th

= ~48% daily growth rate

That's like 39 days until everyone on earth catches the carona V. Someone get greta on the phone

Some ethnicities are prone/immune to certain diseases. Wonder if, for example, Blacks or another group may be less susceptible to Coronavirus, while Asians are more susceptible. Also the issue of experience with similar strains, such has how cox pox infected people were resistant to small pox.

Hircus says

2 days have passed, and the growth rate continues steady in the mid 40's -

It's working!! what impeachment?

HeadSet says

Blacks or another group may be less susceptible to Coronavirus,

But the sickle cell has them by the balls

Tim Aurora says

Hopefully it is tapering with new measures. 28% for today.

Unfortunately, the sources I've come across have been a little bit different from each other. I think sometimes the difference might be due to measurements at a different time of day.



real time map
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I think this map's data is shifted 1 day off. if you look at the bottom left, they say 4400 on the 26th, while the chart says 4400 on the 27th. And similar for other days.


But anyway, via this data it looks like going from 4464 to 6060 is about ~36% in 1 day, so hopefully it keeps trending down.

HeadSet says

Wonder if, for example, Blacks or another group may be less susceptible to Coronavirus, while Asians are more susceptible.

Good thing I identify as black

We now have new infections going on outside China. The virus now spreads from multiple points on the planet.
Containment failed so far.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html
"Health officials on Tuesday reported what appear to be the first known cases of human-to-human transmission of the virus in Europe — specifically, in Germany — and in Japan. Another case was recently reported in Vietnam.

The cases show that countries across the world are now faced with the task of limiting the spread of the disease on their own soil, not just seeking to identify and quarantine ailing patients who had traveled from China."

Still has killed less people than Hillary.

We're all going to die from a virus before the sex robots hit the market at a reasonable price? Life is so unfair.

For perspective - 2019-2020 US Influenza Stats:

15,000,000 – 21,000,000 cases in the US alone

140,000 – 250,000 hospitalizations in the US

8,200 – 20,000 deaths in the US

Yet somehow the news media has become obsessed with a virus that has only killed ~200 people worldwide.

This appears to be a drill for Chinese martial law more than anything else.

Booger says

This appears to be a drill for Chinese martial law more than anything else.

Someone buy this guy dinner!

We have more people still voluntarily killing themselves smoking cigarettes than Corona or the flu virus combined throughout the world, yet we and everyone still sells smokes. Let me know when this reaches 6 figure death tolls in a country of 1B+. 100k DEATHS would be .01% of the population or less of China. This is hype to the extreme. 97% of people afflicted will live. And if you break down the demographics and health of those infected it's likely that 99.5% of anyone infected with this hype will survive no different than the flu if you're 10-50 years of age. This is alarmingly stupid.

And even if it's the fucking apocalypse, WTF is anyone gonna do about it? The fake concern is hysterical to me.

I recall in Dr. Strangelove general Turgington says that we can survive nuclear war “It’s not as if we won’t get our hair mussed, but we’ll lose 15 or 20 million, tops!”

Seams to be 2-4% death rate at its epicenter, but what if China is lying and it's more like at 10%? If this virus is worse than they say how long would it take for the truth to come out?

I could see something like this doing a lot more damage in poorer more disorganized counties.

This is not funny.

https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-may-help-boost-162956718.html
"China's coronavirus may help boost U.S. jobs - Ross"

Because we know virus stop at frontiers....

Heraclitusstudent says

Because we know virus stop at frontiers....

He is right - funeral house and crematorium job numbers will skyrocket. We should all get a MS in Cinerary Sciences instead of learning to code.