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Corona virus (more correctly, Wuhan virus)


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2020 Jan 24, 12:33pm   176,347 views  3,362 comments

by Heraclitusstudent   ➕follow (8)   💰tip   ignore  

Anyone wants to risk a bet on the eventual number of sick people? Dead people?

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138   mell   2020 Feb 2, 1:41pm  

Also the flu virus mutates much more rapidly which makes it a challenge each year. Cvs don't mutate much. Still all these measures are very important until there's a vaccine. Good to stay vigilant.
139   mell   2020 Feb 2, 1:44pm  

If there's a bad flu season stock up on Tamiflu and immediately take on onset of high fever.
140   RC2006   2020 Feb 2, 2:08pm  

flu seemed pretty weak this year, so far I'm the only one to get it in family and had a 100 fever for 3 days just felt tired.. Truth be told it was kind of nice I just stayed in room and watched TV without being bothered lol.
141   Hircus   2020 Feb 2, 8:51pm  

Looks like the daily growth rate keeps tapering off, fairly rapidly.

I took the daily data from here
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

and ran it through a script to calculate the daily growth rate. They obviously have a graph, but I feel these numbers add value.

Here's the results, taken 1 day at a time:


Jan 22 to Jan 23 (1 days)
555 to 653 = 98 growth
CDGR 17.66%

Jan 23 to Jan 24 (1 days)
653 to 2040 = 1387 growth
CDGR 212.40%

Jan 24 to Jan 25 (1 days)
2040 to 2757 = 717 growth
CDGR 35.15%

Jan 25 to Jan 26 (1 days)
2757 to 4464 = 1707 growth
CDGR 61.92%

Jan 26 to Jan 27 (1 days)
4464 to 6087 = 1623 growth
CDGR 36.36%

Jan 27 to Jan 28 (1 days)
6087 to 7805 = 1718 growth
CDGR 28.22%

Jan 28 to Jan 29 (1 days)
7805 to 9818 = 2013 growth
CDGR 25.79%

Jan 29 to Jan 30 (1 days)
9818 to 11353 = 1535 growth
CDGR 15.63%

Jan 30 to Jan 31 (1 days)
11353 to 14473 = 3120 growth
CDGR 27.48%

Jan 31 to Feb 1 (1 days)
14473 to 16780 = 2307 growth
CDGR 15.94%

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+17.66%2C212.40%2C35.15%2C61.92%2C36.36%2C28.22%2C25.79%2C15.63%2C27.48%2C15.94


and 3 days at a time, which helps smooth the trend


Jan 22 to Jan 25 (3 days)
555 to 2757 = 2202 growth
CDGR 70.63%

Jan 23 to Jan 26 (3 days)
653 to 4464 = 3811 growth
CDGR 89.79%

Jan 24 to Jan 27 (3 days)
2040 to 6087 = 4047 growth
CDGR 43.97%

Jan 25 to Jan 28 (3 days)
2757 to 7805 = 5048 growth
CDGR 41.46%

Jan 26 to Jan 29 (3 days)
4464 to 9818 = 5354 growth
CDGR 30.05%

Jan 27 to Jan 30 (3 days)
6087 to 11353 = 5266 growth
CDGR 23.09%

Jan 28 to Jan 31 (3 days)
7805 to 14473 = 6668 growth
CDGR 22.86%

Jan 29 to Feb 1 (3 days)
9818 to 16780 = 6962 growth
CDGR 19.56%

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+70.63%2C89.79%2C43.97%2C41.46%2C30.05%2C23.09%2C22.86%2C19.56
145   HeadSet   2020 Feb 3, 7:19am  

"Alcohol based hand rub" is useless against viruses. Thoroughly washing hands is better. Wash with bleach if you really want to be sure.
146   Patrick   2020 Feb 3, 7:22am  

I have read that the most effective way to prevent flus and colds is simply to wash one's hands often, and always before eating. Also, minimize touching one's eyes and nose with unclean hands. And that rubbing is as important as using soap.

The primary transmission mechanism is hands, not through the air.
147   just_passing_through   2020 Feb 3, 8:13am  

11 in the US now...
148   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 3, 12:37pm  

Brave, but foolish....
"Huawei, Chinese chip makers keep factories humming despite virus outbreak"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-chinese-chip-makers-keep-043752942.html
149   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 3, 12:48pm  

Johns Hopkins' Toner Says China Is Too Late, Coronavirus Is Out of Control
"Even before the outbreak was discovered, it was already out of control"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-30/johns-hopkins-toner-says-china-is-too-late-coronavirus-is-out-of-control-video
150   CBOEtrader   2020 Feb 3, 5:43pm  

Heraclitusstudent says
Brave, but foolish....
"Huawei, Chinese chip makers keep factories humming despite virus outbreak"
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/huawei-chinese-chip-makers-keep-043752942.html


Is it gonna stick to the microchips?
151   Ceffer   2020 Feb 3, 5:46pm  

It's a viral twofer, since the chips have computer viruses, too!
152   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 3, 6:01pm  

HEYYOU says
"Thailand 'cures' coronavirus with anti-HIV drug cocktail in 48 hours"

Is the patient still alive?
158   HeadSet   2020 Feb 5, 8:48am  

So, people have contracted Corona Virus because they did not get the vaccine?
159   WookieMan   2020 Feb 5, 9:13am  

HeadSet says
So, people have contracted Corona Virus because they did not get the vaccine?

I didn't get it either. Maybe pointing out their immune systems would be weakened by the Corona Virus and they may be more susceptible to diseases that have generally been eradicated via vaccines? That's my guess?
160   CBOEtrader   2020 Feb 5, 10:15am  



Using a virus outbreak to market health insurance. Who is winning here?
162   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 6, 5:42pm  

Zhejiang has like 1000 cases reported, but 0 deaths. In fact most places where cases happened have 0 death. So the percent death is likely below 1%.
This suggests that Hubei has more than the reported number of cases. They just detect people when they are already seriously sick.
163   Tenpoundbass   2020 Feb 6, 5:54pm  

I bet the folks dying are the ones that keep getting vaccinated. And those that get the flu once or twice a year, don't even get it.

zzyzzx says
164   just_passing_through   2020 Feb 6, 9:48pm  

There are now approximately the same number of people outside of China as was reported inside of China on Jan 19th who've become Coronavirus homes. That's about 2.5 weeks.

Possible cases in Africa now.
165   Hircus   2020 Feb 7, 8:38pm  

I uploaded my script to codepen. It uses live data, so you can check it any day to see an update: https://codepen.io/bijoho4929/full/NWqPpQo

The rate keeps falling, now down to about ~11%


Showing infected cases from China and World

Jan 20 to Jan 21 (1 days)
282 to 332 = 50 growth
CDGR 17.7%

Jan 21 to Jan 22 (1 days)
332 to 555 = 223 growth
CDGR 67.2%

Jan 22 to Jan 23 (1 days)
555 to 653 = 98 growth
CDGR 17.7%

Jan 23 to Jan 24 (1 days)
653 to 941 = 288 growth
CDGR 44.1%

Jan 24 to Jan 25 (1 days)
941 to 2019 = 1078 growth
CDGR 114.6%

Jan 25 to Jan 26 (1 days)
2019 to 2794 = 775 growth
CDGR 38.4%

Jan 26 to Jan 27 (1 days)
2794 to 4473 = 1679 growth
CDGR 60.1%

Jan 27 to Jan 28 (1 days)
4473 to 6057 = 1584 growth
CDGR 35.4%

Jan 28 to Jan 29 (1 days)
6057 to 7783 = 1726 growth
CDGR 28.5%

Jan 29 to Jan 30 (1 days)
7783 to 9776 = 1993 growth
CDGR 25.6%

Jan 30 to Jan 31 (1 days)
9776 to 11374 = 1598 growth
CDGR 16.3%

Jan 31 to Feb 1 (1 days)
11374 to 14514 = 3140 growth
CDGR 27.6%

Feb 1 to Feb 2 (1 days)
14514 to 17370 = 2856 growth
CDGR 19.7%

Feb 2 to Feb 3 (1 days)
17370 to 19881 = 2511 growth
CDGR 14.5%

Feb 3 to Feb 4 (1 days)
19881 to 23892 = 4011 growth
CDGR 20.2%

Feb 4 to Feb 5 (1 days)
23892 to 27636 = 3744 growth
CDGR 15.7%

Feb 5 to Feb 6 (1 days)
27636 to 30818 = 3182 growth
CDGR 11.5%

Feb 6 to Feb 7 (1 days)
30818 to 34392 = 3574 growth
CDGR 11.6%

Feb 7 to Feb 8 (1 days)
34392 to 34887 = 495 growth
CDGR 1.4%

*The numbers for the current day are usually low because the data hasn't been fully collected yet.
Wolfram Chart (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot+18%2C67%2C18%2C44%2C115%2C38%2C60%2C35%2C29%2C26%2C16%2C28%2C20%2C15%2C20%2C16%2C12%2C12%2C1)
166   Ceffer   2020 Feb 7, 10:02pm  

Two pigs having a conversation next the Bioweapons lab around Wuhan: "Don't you really get pissed off when they keep blaming us for all this shit?"
168   just_passing_through   2020 Feb 8, 10:17am  

Ceffer says
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1256138/pg1


Doesn't appear to be man made at all. Here is a link to the rushed paper that insinuated just that:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1

It's still downloadable. At first those "HIV" inserts seem dubious. (Page-4, translated RNA-> protein sequence of SARS vs. coronavirus)

The authors focused on those inserts. All of the blue are also variation. It looks natural to me but don't take my word for it, read the comments from the other scientists who are laughing the paper out of publication.
173   RC2006   2020 Feb 10, 10:33am  

Latest Study Suggests The New Coronavirus Is Also Spreading Via Feces. How bad will this spread in India and SF?

https://www.sciencealert.com/latest-coronavirus-study-suggests-it-can-also-be-spread-through-poop
174   Heraclitusstudent   2020 Feb 10, 11:38am  

"Five British citizens contracted the virus in the French Alpine town of Contamines-Montjoie"

(You can't make up the name of this place. )

"Eleven Britons are thought to have been infected by a man who caught the virus in Singapore then went to France and the UK."

This thing seems to be spreading like wildfire.

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-coronavirus-cases-double-as-four-more-test-positive-11930618
175   RC2006   2020 Feb 10, 11:44am  

I've heard it has spread much more than anyone knows through the 3rd world because there is no testing..
177   Shaman   2020 Feb 12, 7:04am  

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/482528-a-virus-is-crippling-chinas-economy-and-threatening-the-worlds#

Looks like the world will be feeling China’s pain shortly.
I personally will be affected as my job depends on shipping from China.

I talked to a dad on the baseball team I coach last night, he said they are running out of inventory (auto parts) and their chinese factory has been shut down for two weeks.

Looks like the worst case scenario for economic disruption is in play.

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