patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

Heraclitusstudent says

Really? Why?

Do you think you have to solve the Shroedinger equation's of all molecules in the atmosphere?

The climate is essentially static. A steady state system. All you have to do is analyses the effects of small changes on various subsystems by modeling such subsystems.
For ex: What percent of the ice sheet melts depending on temperature. -> 1 sub model.
What is the difference in sunlight absorption between icesheet and open sea. You don't care which areas of the ice sheet are melted, just take vast chunks of the arctic ocean as 1 unit.
Because it is aggregate, it is far easier to do. Because it is just incremental you don't have to model the entire process of how the climate works, only what changes.
What is the effect on cloud.
What is the effect on vegetation.
You just have to detail it sufficiently so it will match 50 years of actual data and refine it constantly.

Such model is essentially a quantitative description of everything we know DID happen at a physical level. .
If you think projecting this in the future is abusive, then you need to ...

umm...I'm about to give up trying to prove a point to you. The point was, the Shroedinger equation to get the zero point energy of a 200 body problem is insanely complex. But less complex than trying to model climate.

This is the problem....all these things you've described are oversimplifying a complex system by a wide margin. We do the same thing in quantum mechanical calculations for molecules or molecular dynamics simulations. And what we find is...that it invalidates the validity of the model as you make more and more assumptions. And no, you can't assume the models to be quantitative. The world's best quantum mechanics professors still have not developed a model to get quantitative results for the zero point energy for larger molecules. Their results are purely qualitative.

The fact that you think they are quantitative would mean...they just about have everything figured out. They don't. That's why the literature will predict anywhere from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees. The models are woefully invalid at this point...and the temperature data is overly noisy to draw any real conclusions at this point. But again....you seem to give the field much more credit than they've earned. Like I said...this field, and others like economics try to piggy back on the reputation of fields like Physics and Chemistry....where we actually have laws in place that are infallible.

The point was, the Shroedinger equation to get the zero point energy of a 200 body problem is insanely complex. But less complex than trying to model climate.

Or even short term weather predictions. In many in-land areas, weather forecasts for the week ahead can be fairly accurate. However, here in coastal Virginia, daily weather forecasts are notoriously inaccurate because the ocean plays havoc with the normal forecasting models. The complexities introduced by the interaction of the sea can even make a storm that is sweeping across the state suddenly veer off in an unexpected direction.

I still havent heard a detailed method to measure global temperature in a single point in time, that makes sense. Much less as a measure of change over time

What is todays temperature and why? There is no good way to measure a single global temperature that isnt full of assumptions and guesstimations and sampling errors and glitches and falible equipment and human error.

Reading through their papers, I am left feeling less than confident in their precision https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018JD029522

CBOEtrader says

I am left feeling less than confident in their precision

It is amazing to think that they think they can measure worldwide yearlong global average temperature down to hundredths of a degree.

I love when they present data from the 1800s to the nearest 100th of a degree. Climatology right now has a statistics problem because most of their papers don't adhere to the same statistical standards that we expect in other fields.

The data for a single location, New York Central Park is located here.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical

What you will find is that the data is very noisy and the noise value actually exceeds the trend you obtain from fitting it to any sort of growth function meaning....the growth is not statistically distinguishable from zero. What you will also find is that only a small percentage of all time temperature highs occur in the past 20 years....that doesn't fit with the popular narrative.

Onvacation says

I'm not saying we can't model the future of climate.

I do! I think humans can model the climate 20 years from now about as well as they can model insurance for Mortgage Backed Securities over a 20 year period.

Heraclitusstudent says

The climate is essentially static. A steady state system

Absolutely not.

The climate has wildly fluctuated. El Ninos, La Ninas, NAO oscillations, just to name a few that can dramatically alter temps across hemispheres several times a decade.

The entire Sahara Grasslands became the Sahara Desert and the Dogger Bank was Doggerland and the Thames was part of the Rhein within the past few thousand years - thousands of years after the invention of Agriculture.



https://phys.org/news/2016-12-years-sahara-tropicalwhat.html

Just to give an idea of how wildly variable the climate is, we are barely out of an ice age, the Weichselian. That period, which only lastest a few thousand years, is separated into 3 stages with 4+ stages each. Just in the very last stage, which saw most of the deglaciation of Europe, we can track radical climate changes by looking at fossilized tree records. Pollenating trees in Northern Europe only began about 10,000BPY, which is a tiny droplet of earth History.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weichselian_glaciation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Glacial_Interstadial

The problem with the steady state climate idea is not only is it wrong on a century level, it's absolute rubbish on a larger scale. It gives the extremely false idea that there is an ideal temperature and gas level, when these things have wildly fluctuated over thousands and millions and billions of years. Just 250M years ago, a fraction of the Earth's existence, CO2 levels were sky high, Oxygen was 30% higher, temperatures were at "OMG Global Doom and Gloom" very high levels.

"Oxygen dropped from its highest level to its lowest level ever in only 20 million years," Huey said today.

That's 30% (Permian) to 12% (after Permian Extinction Event) in just 10M years. That's no steady state.

Climate Change is Bad and Avoidable is to actual Earth Science what "Smokey Bear" is to Ecologic Systems.

https://www.livescience.com/6981-gasping-air-lack-oxygen-worsened-great-dying.html

Onvacation says

NASA came out with the annual anomaly and 2019 was the second hottest year EVER!
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20200115/

Yeah and it was very cold on the west coast. At least globull warming could have visited us.

Onvacation says

CBOEtrader says

I am left feeling less than confident in their precision

It is amazing to think that they think they can measure worldwide yearlong global average temperature down to hundredths of a degree.

The stations measuring far from civilization, far above ground or in the water are probably more reliable. Stations esp. in warmer cities likely have been recording higher temperatures from the increasing number of ACs and the concrete surface.

The subset of the Quatenary Stage we now live in (2200BC) began with the end of 200-year drought, the 4.2 Kiloyear Event, that saw the end of an inhabitable "Sahara Savannah"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meghalayan



Note the lack of SUVs in Old Kingdom Egypt.

Steady State, my ass.

theoakman says

What you will also find is that only a small percentage of all time temperature highs occur in the past 20 years

And a lot of all time lows.

During a recent event, the 8.2KYr Event (graphic above) aka ~6200BC, methane in the atmosphere dropped by 15% in a matter of a few years, due to a sudden cooling..

NoCoupForYou says

Onvacation says

I'm not saying we can't model the future of climate.

I do! I think humans can model the climate 20 years from now about as well as they can model insurance for Mortgage Backed Securities over a 20 year period.

I never said we could model the climate but I have bitched about the weatherman being wrong so often.

Onvacation says

I never said we could model the climate but I have bitched about the weatherman being wrong so often.

Yep, if it's hard to predict a movement to the end of the driveway, then predicting movement to the end of the block is going to be very difficult.

They can vote against deniers whether they are right or wrong.

So you predict Tom Steyer will win?

HEYYOU says

They can vote against deniers whether they are right or wrong.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xgqymn/exclusive-poll-80-of-young-voters-think-global-warming-is-a-major-threat-to-life-as-we-know-it?utm_source=reddit.com

The indoctrination is working.

Ask one of those youngsters how much the temperature has risen in the last century and you'll get answers anywhere from 10 to 50 degrees.

Stop scaring the children.

Heraclitusstudent says

Yeaaaaahhhh.... clearly

How do you calculate global temperature?

How did they do it in 1880?

What type of conclusions are valid when using deeply flawed data representing far less than .0001% of our earth's history?

Since this is the Bloomberg carbon clock, obviously Bloomberg will help this trend by giving up his private jet aircraft. Until we see real leadership from those espousing this charade, us peons will ignore this as drivel.

Adjustments to temperature record vs co2 concentration.



See how the temperature correction closely corresponds to rising co2?

According to Peter Wadhams, a Cambridge professor interviewed in the Guardian in 2013, Arctic ice would disappear by 2015 if we didn’t mend our ways, while Gordon Brown announced in 2009 that we had just 50 days to save the Earth. Then again, playing the long game can also catch up with you. In 2004, Observer readers were told Britain would have a ‘Siberian’ climate in 16 years’ time. We’re supposed to be in the midst of that now.

On the face of it, we should be grateful that these gloomsters make such oddly precise predictions. It’s like putting a sell-by date on their credibility. After all, when the soothsayer in question is proved wrong, they just shuffle off with their tail between their legs, never to be heard from again, right? In eight years’ time, when the planet hasn’t disappeared in a cloud of toxic gas, presumably Greta will throw up her arms and say: ‘Sorry guys. Looked like I was wrong about you ruining my childhood. I’m now going to become a flight attendant.’

But, weirdly, that never happens. No matter how often these ‘experts’ are shown to be no better at forecasting than Paul the Octopus — worse, actually — they just carry on as if nothing has happened. Take Paul Ehrlich, author of the 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb. ‘We must realize that unless we are extremely lucky, everybody will disappear in a cloud of blue steam in 20 years,’ he told the New York Times in 1969. Ehrlich also predicted America would be subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980. Ehrlich’s ‘bomb’ failed to explode, but his career didn’t. On the contrary, he’s now the Bing Professor of Population Studies at Stanford and the president of Stanford’s Center for Conservation Biology. All I can say is, it’s lucky he didn’t become a bookmaker.
https://spectator.us/climate-doomsayers-keep-putting-sell-by-dates-credibility/

food rationing by 1980

Ironic because 1980 was around the time the obesity epidemic started.....

NoCoupForYou says

According to Peter Wadhams, a Cambridge professor interviewed in the Guardian in 2013, Arctic ice would disappear by 2015 if we didn’t mend our ways, while Gordon Brown announced in 2009 that we had just 50 days to save the Earth. Then again, playing the long game can also catch up with you. In 2004, Observer readers were told Britain would have a ‘Siberian’ climate in 16 years’ time. We’re supposed to be in the midst of that now.

1) this is an article in MSM not a scientific paper.
2) this was clearly meant to be an extreme example of what could happen.
3) The article clearly says as preamble: "Not everyone agrees that the paper's scenario of a catastrophic and imminent methane release is plausible. Nasa's Gavin Schmidt has previously argued that the danger of such a methane release is low, whereas scientists like Prof Tim Lenton from Exeter University who specialises in climate tipping points, says the process would take thousands if not tens of thousands of years".
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/jul/24/arctic-ice-free-methane-economy-catastrophe

To quote this most extreme cherry picked example as a prediction "made by science" that didn't happen and therefore discredit the entire climate science, is absolute BS, and clearly meant only for propagandist purpose.

Most scientists have claimed for decades that the earth would warm between 0.5 and 5 degrees C before 2100. A range that is not extreme, has barely changed, but justifies taking actions against it. The history of mankind on this planet doesn't end in 2100 hopefully.

The usual human centric, solipsistic view that we are the prime movers of all nature, and that even if the warming is occurring, we are the cause and can do something about it by rigid, politicized social control.

These arguments appeal to a sense of innate grandiosity about the agency of our species. We are fleas on the face of the earth. When we run out of flea food, one way or another, we will die and adapt in different ways. Giving the Kommie Kommishin centralized control won't make any difference, except for the exploiters on top.

Heraclitusstudent says

Most scientists have claimed for decades that the earth would warm between 0.5 and 5 degrees C before 2100.

Could you kindly share the name of at least one of these "most scientists"?

Ceffer says

Giving the Kommie Kommishin centralized control won't make any difference, except for the exploiters on top.

Well said as always.

It's not about saving humanity, it's about controlling humans.

Most scientists have claimed for decades that the earth would warm between 0.5 and 5 degrees C before 2100. A range that is not extreme, has barely changed, but justifies taking actions against it. The history of mankind on this planet doesn't end in 2100 hopefully.

Do you really think a 5 degree temp change would cause human extinction? 10,000 years ago North America had a massive population of large animals including several distinct species of mammoths and mastodons, saber tooth cats, giant sloths, rhinos,hippos, and more. Homo Sapiens was also around. All those species died off when the ice age receded somewhat, but Homo Sapiens is still here and thriving. If the planet continues with the receding ice age we can see changes like tropical vegetation and species moving north, more coral in more northern seas, and places like Canada and Siberia more open to agriculture. Even with an extra 5 degrees, Antarctica will still have massive ice sheets and a change from -60 degrees to -55 degrees will do nothing to melt ice. The still low temperature summers are too short to melt the ice formed during the colder months.

The bigger threat to humanity by far is too many people polluting and using too many resources. Many species have been wiped out or seriously endangered by over harvesting or habitat degradation. None have been wiped out by AGW. "Carbon" is a joke.

.5 to 5 degrees celsius? That's a 1000% swing from the lower estimate.

Onvacation says

Heraclitusstudent says

Most scientists have claimed for decades that the earth would warm between 0.5 and 5 degrees C before 2100.

Could you kindly share the name of at least one of these "most scientists"?

97% of scientists and you won't name one. I continue to call fraud.

In other non virus news, the north pole ice pack ended up the tenth lowest in recorded history (since 1979). Only 9 years have had less ice than the 2020 maximum.

Its probably because of all the people that stopped driving because of the Chinese Communist party Wuhan virus.

Fuck the church GW - we need GW now! And a real globull warming not this hoax of changes within the margin of error. Bring a good summer already and let's eradicate CV. FFS it's almost snowing in the bay area.

Onvacation says

In other non virus news, the north pole ice pack ended up the tenth lowest in recorded history (since 1979). Only 9 years have had less ice than the 2020 maximum.

These types of date comparisons are often used by alarmists for dramatic effect. It is cherry picking as 1979 and a couple of years before were dramatically cold and icy years in the Arctic. From the 40s to the 70s, the Arctic got increasingly colder. I covered it in my documentary, but my source footage is from this episode of In Search Of. Several prominent climatologists are interviewed in this episode where they were predicting an impending ice age.

www.youtube.com/embed/1kGB5MMIAVA

mell says

Fuck the church GW - we need GW now! And a real globull warming not this hoax of changes within the margin of error. Bring a good summer already and let's eradicate CV. FFS it's almost snowing in the bay area.

We need as much hot and humid weather as possible ASAP! I'm going to drive my giant SUV around the cul-de-sac for 20 hours per day to accelerate the fucking AGW!!!

Thinking about the Coming Ice Age in light of the Coronahype. All scientists agree! The models! Zero Population Growth! It's math! No unlimited growth on a limited world.

Same arguments, recycled.

Heraclitusstudent says

The climate is essentially static

No. The climate is a dynamic system that is constantly changing. Ever hear about the medieval warming period, the little ice age, or the American dust bowl? If the climate is static what happened to the Anasazi?

Onvacation says

No. The climate is a dynamic system that is constantly changing. Ever hear about the medieval warming period, the little ice age, or the American dust bowl? If the climate is static what happened to the Anasazi?

In my film I used the example of petrified trees in the Arizona desert to show what real climate change looks like over the course of time. I also think the records of crops being grown in Greenland should serve as a real gauge of global warming. Until those same crops can be grown on Greenland, I will be skeptical that the Earth is warmer now than most of recorded history. While the surface temperature graph does show a clear pattern of warming, there is no way that a legitimate scientist would consider measurements from the 1800s to be as accurate as a modern digital thermometer.

Onvacation says

97% of scientists and you won't name one. I continue to call fraud.

I can help out.

Michael Mann - He came up with the "hockey stick" correlating temperatures to tree rings. He was also the central figure in the "Climategate" scandal. He recently lost a lawsuit in Canada for not providing his data to the court where he was suing a skeptic for defamation.

https://www.thegwpf.com/media-ignores-michael-manns-court-loss-it-doesnt-fit-the-warmist-agenda/

The best one, since alarmists love linking to Skeptical Science and NASA, is James Hansen. He is known for making outlandish predictions about NY and other coastal cities being submerged by rising sea levels. He was the head of the NASA Goddard Institute. The alarmists have tried backpedaling this claim. They say:

A. He didn't say that.
B. He is misquoted out of context in an interview where he speculated what would happen if CO2 levels doubled in 20, revised to 40 years. There is grayness there since we can't prove that the scenario was his prediction or a fresh scenario asked by the interviewer.

That's where YouTube is so useful, as it serves as a wonderful archive. So, for the denying alarmists, here is James Hansen, in his own words predicting submerged cities by the end of the 20th century.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/T9KzeQJZUEw

The sad part is he is still a quoted and respected expert in the climate scare cult, as opposed to me, a hobbyist filmmaker who puts up with a lot of disrespect for merely sharing this stuff.

Malcolm says

Several prominent climatologists are interviewed in this episode where they were predicting an impending ice age.

Climate skeptics tend to use this as grist for "Scientists don't know what they're talking about 30 years ago they were predicting an ice age FFS" level hand waving and dismissals. They never point out that until the early 70s, particulate and aerosol emissions strongly counteracted the warming potential of CO2. These pollutants were relatively easy to remove from smokestack and transportation sources, leaving CO2 as a primary anthropogenic driver of climate.

Automan Empire says

leaving CO2 as a primary anthropogenic driver of climate.

No it's not.



And of the 5% caused by "anthropogenic" releases only 15% is caused by the US.

Automan Empire says

Climate skeptics tend to use this as grist for "Scientists don't know what they're talking about 30 years ago they were predicting an ice age FFS" level hand waving and dismissals. They never point out that until the early 70s, particulate and aerosol emissions strongly counteracted the warming potential of CO2. These pollutants were relatively easy to remove from smokestack and transportation sources, leaving CO2 as a primary anthropogenic driver of climate.

That's interesting conjecture. I have not heard that theory before, but it would still not account for the lack of tropospheric warming, which is actually a more believable measure as it is taken from satellites, verses a graph of land stations taken with inconsistent measuring devices in changing locations over the course of 140 years or so. You theoretically can't have surface warming without warming above it, the heat has to go somewhere. It would also not correlate to the extreme warmth of the 1930s and 1940s.