patrick.net

The virus is still much less widespread than annual flu epidemics, which cause up to 5 million severe cases around the world and up to 650,000 deaths annually, according to the WHO.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/US-cruise-ship-in-limbo-as-anti-virus-controls-15112977.php

mell says

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238382

Thanks, that's a good article!

Interesting point that the biggest predictor of death seems to be lack of lung capacity before getting infected.

First, if you cannot climb stairs without becoming winded you're in quite a bit of trouble and it doesn't matter whether that's due to asthma, COPD or just generally poor physical condition. Presume that you get hit hard enough that this bug takes 5 METS out of your peak capacity at its worst. If you can only barely reach 6 you're at risk of death! Add some cardiac compromise and the risk goes up quite materially.

I have long harped on the "any size is beautiful" thing, or the "fix it with pills" deal when it comes to diabetes. That's flat-out bullcrap and now we're going to have hundreds of thousands -- or even a couple of million people find out why. None of that virtue-signalling garbage will do a thing for your capacity to move oxygen and CO2 and this virus attacks that ability. You either have the reserve capacity or you don't.

Don't means you're DEAD. ...

By definition if you're in a nursing home you are incapable of taking care of your basic daily needs on your own. This almost-always correlates with being unable to sustain any sort of material physical oxygen demand. All of these people are at very high risk.

There are about 16 million Americans with COPD, most of them as a result of smoking. With any stage of COPD you are at severe risk with this infection. ...

The bad news is that given our offshoring and "globalism" insanity over the last 30+ years and the "necessary" re-arrangement of our households to accommodate that such that one person going to work is no longer possible for most families we have a huge problem, like it or not. As a result of YOUR greed, avarice and allowing the invasion of the lower end of our labor pool by unskilled illegal invaders and sending the medium-skilled jobs to China and India we no longer can keep the kids home and teach them there where they won't get the bug, bring it home and infect you or, much worse, grandma. Your kids are going to get it and you're odds-on to get this thing too over the next year or so in no small part for this very reason. The good news is that your children are very unlikely to be seriously harmed by it.

You (and especially Granny) -- not so much. ...

If you think this is the worst of such bugs, and thus the worst-case outcome, you're nuts -- this is a preview of what will come again, and next time has even odds to be worse than this one. Maybe we ought to cut that crap, along with the open borders garbage, out eh? ...

You can climb stairs for an extended period of time, you can hike on moderate to severe trails without having to stop frequently (or at all), you can jog or run a 12 minute or better pace for an extended period of time (several miles) without having to stop or walk. Your odds are very low of needing even basic medical intervention (e.g. a doctor visit) and vanishingly small of having a severe, critical or fatal case (likely less than 1 in 1,000.) However, do not be surprised if the virus forces you to curtail your physical activity, perhaps by quite a lot. In other words you might have a really bad time of it but not hospital-grade bad. ...

The much larger impact is going to be on those people who have COPD and similar disorders. I will not be surprised at all if 20% of those people die within 12 months as a direct and indirect result of this virus and there is nothing that can be done about it as COPD is not only progressive there's no medically known way to reverse it. SE Florida has huge areas where Sunday mornings feature an enormous percentage of the patrons at various eateries sucking down carbs by the plate-full, most of them ridiculously obese and many of them are toting around oxygen cylinders. More than a few, astonishingly, drag said cylinder outside with them in the middle of their meal to have a cigarette! A huge percentage of those people are going to die when they get the virus and there's nothing that can be done about it.

If you're seriously compromised as a result of diabetes and/or severe obesity it's definitely worth getting the damned carbs out of your pie hole right now. Every bit of compromise you can get rid of in that regard, and every pound and point of insulin resistance or hypertension you can remove will help if you accomplish it prior to getting the virus. I know, I know, you can't give up the pasta, potatoes and cake, choosing green veggies, eggs, cheese and meat instead. This time it's not just the size of your ass, it's whether your ass survives that may be stake. Choose wisely because if 10% of those people die we're talking about a couple of million additional corpses. That will matter both in terms of public perception and economics.

I have long harped on the "any size is beautiful" thing, or the "fix it with pills" deal when it comes to diabetes.

+1000. If it were up to me, Type 2 diabetes would be renamed "Fat Onset Diabetes." Lose the weight and the diabetes goes away.

https://reason.com/2020/03/06/trump-says-the-covid-19-death-rate-will-be-a-fraction-of-1-percent-is-he-right/

Summary: Trump was right

https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-coronavirus-testing-death-rate-2020-3

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.

That's still 6x higher than influenza.

Patrick says

No condoms

because we all know this protects you from corona virus hahaha...

OK, so short companies that make equipment for people with COPD or otherwise use oxygen tanks?

https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/dont-buy-chinas-story-the-coronavirus-may-have-leaked-from-a-lab/

Xi didn’t actually admit that the coronavirus now devastating large swaths of China had escaped from one of the country’s bioresearch labs. But the very next day, evidence emerged suggesting that this is exactly what happened, as the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology released a new directive titled: “Instructions on strengthening biosecurity management in microbiology labs that handle advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus.”

Read that again. It sure sounds like China has a problem keeping dangerous pathogens in test tubes where they belong, doesn’t it? And just how many “microbiology labs” are there in China that handle “advanced viruses like the novel coronavirus”?

It turns out that in all of China, there is only one. And this one is located in the Chinese city of Wuhan that just happens to be … the epicenter of the epidemic.

That’s right. China’s only Level 4 microbiology lab that is equipped to handle deadly coronaviruses, called the National Biosafety Laboratory, is part of the Wuhan Institute of Virology. ...

And then there is this little-known fact: Some Chinese researchers are in the habit of selling their laboratory animals to street vendors after they have finished experimenting on them.

You heard me right.

Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach.

Just because it's the NY Post doesn't mean it's wrong.

Patrick says

Instead of properly disposing of infected animals by cremation, as the law requires, they sell them on the side to make a little extra cash. Or, in some cases, a lot of extra cash. One Beijing researcher, now in jail, made a million dollars selling his monkeys and rats on the live animal market, where they eventually wound up in someone’s stomach.

Holy shit. And funny thing, that's entirely plausible, knowing the culture there. Doesn't have to be a bigshot scientist, could be a janitor, too.

illegal food markets are STILL selling wildlife 'that sparked pandemic'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8088481/Footage-shows-illegal-food-markets-selling-high-risk-wildlife-animals-amid-coronavirus-pandemic.html

jazz_music says

nobody else posted this one yet ... you all are slipping

The Corona jokes have kind of run their course. It’s not bad, it’s just not that unique at this point.

For sending out this unauthorized communication, Dr. Li was summoned along with seven other supposed offenders to the Public Security Bureau. There he was warned by police to stop “making false statements.” He was ordered to cease and desist “spreading rumors,” and “acting illegally to disturb social order.”

Dr. Li signed a form indicating he would refrain from continuing to do what he had been accused of doing. The chastised professional returned to his medical practice. He took his own advice and began treating patients exhibiting signs of the new illness. He himself soon died from COVID-19 when it was still known as 19-nCoV.

Is Twitter’s permanent deplatforming of the Zero Hedge web site a North American version of the police intervention in China with the goal of silencing Dr. Li? Is the censorship of the Internet in the name of opposing “conspiracy theorists” repeating the Chinese Communist Party’s effort to silence Dr. Li?

https://www.unz.com/article/who-or-what-started-the-wuhan-coronavirus-epidemic/

Asians might be more susceptible to the disease:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

Patrick says

STILL selling wildlife 'that sparked pandemic'

We don't know if that's true that that's where it originated. That's more along the lines of a Fox News rumor.

marcus says

Patrick says

STILL selling wildlife 'that sparked pandemic'

We don't know if that's true that that's where it originated. That's more along the lines of a Fox News rumor.

We'll never will know if it's true. The Chinese are liars, so there's not much point in debating or discussing it unless people want to just talk about their batshit crazy culture.

I didn't think this would happen at first, and I think I commented on it here, but I do think Asian people are now going to get the side eye from everyone else. It's unwarranted, but when you halt trading of the world largest financial system, people gonna get blamed.

I'm still astonished how overblown this is though. Healthy people are not dying and some may show zero symptoms the entire time the virus is actively in their body. So in that regard it's not even as bad as the flu which kill a half mil a year. If you have a respiratory issue or are over 65 or so, and can do it, just stay home. Most of these people only contribute to the economy if they have retirement funds. Most don't work. So do us all a favor and stay home and stop dying from Corona so we can get back to normal life.

WookieMan says

I'm still astonished how overblown this is though.

I al also amazed at the panicking and stupidity that I am seeing. It's not just the unwarranted stock selling. Even cruise lines will recover. It's the people buying out bottled water. Why the fuck are people doing that???

Sheeple. And these people are allowed to vote. This is EXACTLY why we have the Electoral College.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f31bc192-da1c-3125-b677-c0f15afcf1e9/the-coronavirus-has-sunk.html

The coronavirus has sunk cruise line stocks — now it’s time to buy them

“Redeployment of Asian ships can work for a while, then you cut pricing and people are unlikely to go. So you may have one or two quarters where you have much lower revenue,” Buckingham said during an interview Feb. 28. “The question is three to five years from now. In the fullness of time, my belief is people will get back to cruising.”

Professional investors have to sell stocks during sharp downturns while individual investors don’t. If you are an index-fund investor, you might be tempted to try to time the market by jumping out during a time of turmoil and then buying back in after the market hits bottom. The problem with this strategy for a nonprofessional investor is that you might come back in too late to enjoy a significant gain. You might even think it is too late, that stocks are too expensive and then miss out on subsequent gains after the market returns to its previous record level.

“People are trained with the flight gene. That’s what kept early man alive and it is human nature.

I'm gonna look at cruise stocks now. Not a chance the big 3 go bankrupt from this.

The worldwide numbers suggest we've hit the peak last week. The new infections in % started declining. Death toll in the US : CV 22, FLU 19000

mell says

The worldwide numbers suggest we've hit the peak last week. The new infections in % started declining. Death toll in the US : CV 22, FLU 19000

I sincerely doubt this is true. We are on an exponential curve in the USA. We are not locked down on house arrest like China, and although some conferences are being cancelled, most carry on. People still go to ball games, kid sports, schools, colleges, church, and most everything else.
By next week we will have 1500 cases, by the next it will be 35,000, by the next it will be 1 million.

Unless you isolate yourself for the next year, plan on getting it.

You can monitor for yourself here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The trendline has been linear, a bit steeper since testing started, but most countries have 10%-25% growth. With the cancellation of big events and schools the chain of transmission will be broken. It will be around for a while, but certainly not exponential.
See also here:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-going-to-hit-its-peak-and-start-falling-sooner-than-you-think/amp/

If it hasn't peaked I expect a peak this week. Remember the US is behind, Asia is already falling fast.

I doubt anybody on patnet will catch it as we're currently at less than 2 in 1 million. if it becomes endemic and seasonal then your chances of catching it eventually rise over the years.

Unreasonable Fear and Panic over a disease that killed a few elderly Chinese lifetime smokers with COPD just cancelled one of my events. Just got the word this AM in my inbox.

Here's the whole thread on how Politico, WHO, and other Media/NGOs spread bullshit. Read it - it's great. Gessner documents how Politico went from criticizing Trump for overreacting, to blaming him for not doing enough, as they hyped the stupid thing beyond reason when they realized it was a hit magnet. It's always OrangeManBad.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236535783605121026.html

The question is how many cases go undetected due to mild nature. If you believe that say there are 5k undetected cases in the US, and we know everyone who dies or needs hospital treatment will be tested, then you have to assume a much lower mortality rate. 20 out of confirmed 500 is close to 5%, 20 out of speculated 5000 is 0.5%.

mell says

The question is how many cases go undetected due to mild nature. If you believe that say there are 5k undetected cases in the US, and we know everyone who dies or needs hospital treatment will be tested, then you have to assume a much lower mortality rate. 20 out of confirmed 500 is close to 5%, 20 out of speculated 5000 is 0.5%.

Wife of one of my buddies is a nurse in a major SFBA hospital. According to her the mortality rate of this COVID virus communicated to them in internal documents is 0.3%.

NoCoupForYou says

Unreasonable Fear and Panic over a disease that killed a few elderly Chinese lifetime smokers with COPD just cancelled one of my events. Just got the word this AM in my inbox.

Here's the whole thread on how Politico, WHO, and other Media/NGOs spread bullshit. Read it - it's great. Gessner documents how Politico went from criticizing Trump for overreacting, to blaming him for not doing enough, as they hyped the stupid thing beyond reason when they realized it was a hit magnet. It's always OrangeManBad.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236535783605121026.html

Due to my personal interest and background in medicine and biotech I am constantly monitoring the situation and always willing to reassess or change my mind, but so far I have to agree with this. The cancellation of big events will def help enormously and thus there's a good argument for it since we don't have a vaccine or treatment yet. But they're definitely overdoing some of that. I hope you won't get hot too hard economically. I totally agree on the Trump 180 and it's. despicable what they're doing. Now would actually be a great time for the Fed to address the fake news hype and say they will use their bazooka to soak up and buy everything ;)

Nah, it's just work all down the toilet that pisses me off.

BUT, maybe we can look forward to negative interest rates!

mell says

The cancellation of big events will def help enormously and thus there's a good argument for it since we don't have a vaccine or treatment yet.

While you're likely more educated on the topic than I am, I still find all of this appalling. Are the AARP lobbyist that strong? You're statistically more like to die from a lightening strike or drive by shooting. I get it transmits super easy, but it's not deadly unless you're on life support anyway because of unhealthy lifestyle or immune system issues.

My wife and I are in industries this doesn't influence in any way, but this overhyped chaos is actually hurting people. The tin foil hat I put on sometimes thinks there's more to this whole thing. I don't have a guess at this point, but this is fucking nuts. I've yet to meet a person that actually cares if they get this virus and are just pissed like no coup about lost $$$.

Assholes - it's not a health org that said it, CNN decided this.

22 deaths in a nation of 350M. Most of those deaths were elderly people on a stuck on a cruise ship for days with chronic health issues.

Half of Men over 40 smoke in China COPD, Emphysema rampant there. Not to mention the multiple totally unmitigated coal plants firing 24/365

WookieMan says

mell says

The cancellation of big events will def help enormously and thus there's a good argument for it since we don't have a vaccine or treatment yet.

While you're likely more educated on the topic than I am, I still find all of this appalling. Are the AARP lobbyist that strong? You're statistically more like to die from a lightening strike or drive by shooting. I get it transmits super easy, but it's not deadly unless you're on life support anyway because of unhealthy lifestyle or immune system issues.

My wife and I are in industries this doesn't influence in any way, but this overhyped chaos is actually hurting people. The tin foil hat I put on sometimes thinks there's more to this whole thing. I don't have a guess at this point, but this is fucking nuts. I've yet to meet a person that actually cares if they get this virus and are just pissed like no coup about lost $$$.

I agree that this is quite a strong reaction and I can only assume it's because of the uncertainty and lack of treatment / vaccine. Most people here haven't changed their routine much either except for the peppers and panic buyers. We'll see.

mell says

The question is how many cases go undetected due to mild nature. If you believe that say there are 5k undetected cases in the US, and we know everyone who dies or needs hospital treatment will be tested, then you have to assume a much lower mortality rate. 20 out of confirmed 500 is close to 5%, 20 out of speculated 5000 is 0.5%.

0.5% of 100 millions is, like, 10x Vietnam.

NoCoupForYou says

Half of Men over 40 smoke in China COPD, Emphysema rampant there. Not to mention the multiple totally unmitigated coal plants firing 24/365

Facts don't sell unfortunately. Educated people see this and understand this and don't buy the hype.

As a long time ago former smoker (so not being hypocritical) these people made their own bed with their habit. To cause panic worldwide over it is just ludicrous. I'd venture to guess most dying from this have a weekly pill box that is stacked to the max just to keep them alive. They should have been dead already and are probably a negative to GDP in most countries by staying alive. People die, get over it.

*Coronavirus going to hit its peak and start falling sooner than you think*

Clearly, flu is vastly more contagious than the new coronavirus, as the WHO has noted. Consider that the first known coronavirus cases date back to early December, and since then, the virus has ­afflicted fewer people in total than flu does in a few days. Oh, and why are there no flu quarantines? Because it’s so contagious, it would be impossible.

As for death rates, as I first noted in these pages on Jan. 24, you can’t employ simple math — as everyone is doing — and look at deaths versus cases because those are ­reported cases. With both flu and assuredly with coronavirus, the great majority of those infected have symptoms so mild — if any — that they don’t seek medical attention and don’t get counted in the caseload.

Furthermore, those calculating rates ­ignore the importance of good health care. Given that the vast majority of cases have occurred in a country with poor health care, that’s going to dramatically exaggerate the death rate.

The rate also varies tremendously according to age, with a Chinese government analysis showing 0.2 percent deaths below age 40 but 14.8 percent above 80. A study published last month in the Journal of the American Medical Association found zero deaths worldwide among children 9 and under. Zero.

Like the flu, the coronavirus is afflicting high-risk groups: the elderly, those with ­underlying health conditions like diabetes or heart disease and those with compromised immune systems. Are there exceptions? Sure. But that’s the case with almost every complex biological phenomenon of the kind.

More good news. This month, the Northern Hemisphere, which includes the countries with the most cases, starts heating up. Almost all respiratory viruses hate warm and moist weather. That’s why flu dies out in America every year by May at the latest and probably why Latin America has reported only 25 coronavirus cases. The Philippines, where I live, has about a third of the US population, but it’s so damned hot and humid here, so far we have had no confirmed cases of internal transmission.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/08/coronavirus-going-to-hit-its-peak-and-start-falling-sooner-than-you-think/

Patrick says

Asians might be more susceptible to the disease:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

Another bit of anecdotal evidence: this guy is American, but obviously of Chinese origin:



from https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-update-new-jersey-patiet-speaks-out/

It would be super interesting to know the ethnic backgrounds of everyone who gets seriously ill from this. It may well affect Asians more, because race is real.

The Italians seem to have a fairly high death rate, but the Germans, not so much. Then again, Italy has an older population on average iirc.

Well, Fort Rhee is full of Asians, so he probably got it in the neighborhood.

He's only contracted it, if he dies from it I'll be shocked.