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Patrick please do the world a public health service favor and stop posting bullshit from right-wing sites that intentionally mis-read facts. Think for yourself.
1% or so of Americans could already have the virus.
The 500k prediction was "in an unmitigated pandemic".
The 20,000 prediction follows heavy social distancing measures.
A scientist predicts if we stay here, everyone's going to die, but if we run for the hills we'll be OK.
Great, so you admit Ferguson's report said that, and you have no argument other than ill informed hear-say. Moving on.
Pages 14-15, Table 4 and Table 5 had estimates for different R values and different trigger conditions for the most extreme social distancing.
If R is now modeled at 3.0 it means the situation is more severe than their prediction from a week ago.
Patrick please do the world a public health service favor and stop posting bullshit from right-wing sites that intentionally mis-read facts. Think for yourself.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-neil-ferguson-did-not-walk-back-covid-19-predictions/
So you're just looking for a different outlet. Might as well get your coronavirus news from theonion.com, it would be about as accurate as your right wing media.
So you're just looking for a different outlet. Might as well get your coronavirus news from theonion.com, it would be about as accurate as your right wing media.
My work environment streams CNN 24/7
My work environment streams CNN 24/7
I think it's more likely that after the first wave above, we will then have countries try to switch to contact tracing...
Right, again, the story of any success in this domain is underwritten by compliance.
Looks like Hong Kong now gives out a blue tooth wristband and a Stay Home Safe app (no joke, see accompanying article in SCMP) upon arrival to enforce a 14 day quarantine (fearless leader Patrick, they're doing it).
No, no fucking wristband. Lame. You can still walk around anywhere.
If you leave your home, the app notifies authorities.
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Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model
WHAT THE HELL!??!?? AND THE MEDIA IS STILL PUSHING PANIC OVER THIS????