patrick.net

ThreeBays says

There's not going to be a quick return to normal.

Prediction: There will indeed be a quick return to normal, except, hopefully, for some valuable lessons learned about why we should not continue to outsource to China.

Why the quick return to normal? Because pretty much every country on earth is on the same curve, showing this thing lasts about 90 days even with varying responses among countries:



More predictions:

- Democrats will blame Trump for not doing enough
- Democrats will blame Trump for doing too much
- Democrats will attempt to continue to outsource factories to China and insource illegals from Mexico, and scream !RACIST! at anyone who objects
- voters will get serious about objecting to the devastation of the US working class, and Democrats will lose not only this election, but the next as well

ThreeBays says

if we were to go back to normal the epidemic would spike right back up

But vast swathes of the population have already had it with few or no symptoms, and they probably won't get it again. 50% to 75% of the infected are asymptomatic.

So the epidemic probably won't come back in any significant way. It's running out of new blood already.

ThreeBays says

When you take that and herd immunity into account it's closer to 100k in a day at peak. Of course this is a possibility but not something we'll actually see because we'll keep interfering with it.

We have 134k deaths WORLDWIDE as of this post. First known cases about early December 2019. Almost 5 fucking months deep. 80-90% of places didn't shut down after their first tested case. How in the flying fuck do you get to 100k in a day when we sat here opened up for MONTHS??? You're dogma is pure bullshit at this point. We weren't testing, and when we did, we found the first case in January. This assumption that the Chinese guy in Washington was patient zero in the states is laughable at best and retarded most likely.

No one was testing for this in the states or Europe, even when they shut down Wuhan. I think you kind of already have done so, but you want this to bring down Trump. Even if it does, who cares??? Unless you're a fortune 500 company, the POTUS does almost zilch for you or me. This is not a serious crisis outside of the media for some reason making it one. Biden could get elected tomorrow and I don't give a flying fuck. This isn't about politics. I do think the ass wads perpetrating this, are starting to realize the gig is over. Hopefully this is the last piece of shit flung at the wall.

Although I do predict there will be another mass casualty event before November. Maybe the biggest we've seen in modern history post Vietnam. I hope I'm wrong, but blowing up a flu bug has backfired at this point. I don't think we've seen the grand finale.

Patrick says

Prediction: There will indeed be a quick return to normal, except, hopefully, for some valuable lessons learned about why we should not continue to outsource to China.

I hope so. I was deeply troubled by Newsom talking for hours without saying anything, esp. not acknowledging May 1st as SIP expiration and make an extension the unlikely event only in case things get drastically worse. Instead he went with an extension being likely unless everything is great end of April. This is piss poor leadership and abandoning CAs paycheck to paycheck workers, many of which are young adults. Maybe he was briefed by his globalist masters who didn't like his earlier cooperation with the Donald to prolong this as much as possible because orange! Man! Must! Look! Bad!

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

But vast swathes of the population have already had it

Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.

Source?

mell says

Maybe he was briefed by his globalist masters who didn't like his earlier cooperation with the Donald to prolong this as much as possible because orange! Man! Must! Look! Bad!

My tin foil hat is firmly in place admittedly. I think this virus flopped. I think we see the grand finale next. I'm honestly scared for what it is. The game could get out of control. I try to be level headed and rational, but it's one thing after another at this point. There's no way there's not some mass casualty event before November at this point... I'm convinced of that.

Joshua Gans
@joshgans
· 7h
Given that we have stuck almost everyone in households for a month, surely we only have to test one member if each household to release them. And we can do that going forward. Should cut tests by a third.

Patrick says

Joshua Gans
@joshgans
· 7h
Given that we have stuck almost everyone in households for a month, surely we only have to test one member if each household to release them. And we can do that going forward. Should cut tests by a third.

This is how one of the confirmed cases I know of was handled. They tested the wife (my buddies aunt) and she was positive. They literally said they just assumed her husband was positive and wouldn't test him. So one test turned into two positive cases of COVID-19. This is what we're dealing with. The bullshit and hype is staggering.

ThreeBays says

Do we know if they counted it?

Docs said it was counted. Can only go off the 1 person I know out of 3 that is alive that said this to my friend. Mind you out of thousands of people. I'm clocking in at about 0.04% deaths in my extended network. But hey, pandemic?

WookieMan says

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

But vast swathes of the population have already had it

Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.

Source?

Wherever they took statistic samples of asymptomatic people in the world around 15%-20% tested positive for antibodies. Few dont develop (sufficient) ABs and few lose them over time. So around 20% is the likely figure, which is sizable but in line with the percentage infected by a good pandemic. Add in all the sick over the next few months/years and you arrive anywhere between 20%-25%. The cat has been out of the bag long ago.

ThreeBays says

Patrick says

But vast swathes of the population have already had it

Nah, a very small proportion has had it overall. 3% maybe.

Diamond Princess showed that half to 3/4 of the population already had it, leaving 20-30% still vulnerable at that time. The tests on USS Teddy Roosevelte showing only 10% positive meant that 80-90% of the population already had exposure. As those ships with dozens of people sharing the same room around the clock (especially the restaurants and mess halls onboard), everyone who didn't have antibody would have been infected.

ThreeBays says

100K deaths in a day would've happened some time in May if we carried on business as usual.

LOL! Only in the dreams of someone who doesn't understand math and the basics of how virus infection works in an animal herd

I'm not sure why you're so incredulous. We had around 2,500 deaths recorded today. One month ago we had 12, that's a 208x increase in one month. It's only a 40x increase from here to 100K.

The 2500 number is due to a one-time adding back of cumulative deaths of a particular category over multiple weeks that previous bureaucratic standards didn't count.

ThreeBays says

I'm not sure why you're so incredulous. We had around 2,500 deaths recorded today. One month ago we had 12, that's a 208x increase in one month. It's only a 40x increase from here to 100K.

What? Jan 22 we were recording a minimum of 17 deaths daily at least... A month ago it was 1,459 in a day. There's a reason I capped WORLDWIDE. I think you're taking wrong numbers and plugging them into the US population or you're just being dishonest.

ThreeBays says

My prediction is we're not going to bottom out for quite a few months, and if we were to go back to normal the epidemic would spike right back up. It's a terrible catch-22.

Any new spike would the result of quarantine selecting the more deadly strains/variants of the virus, or a new virus being released/leaked. After all, criminal psychopaths do exist: someone released Ames-strain Anthrax from biological labs after 9-11.

The criminal psychopathic cabal however do seem to be quite idiotic: every single doubt recently being spread about antibody effectiveness is essentially an argument against Gates' own vaccine solution; how can exposure to dead virus in vaccine be effective in building up immunity if after fighting off the real life virus can't even result in immunity?

Of course CV being an RNA virus, which means the single-stranded RNA itself being prone to mutation when replicating, no permanent immunity (to future mutations) is possible regardless whether herd immunity (to current prevalent strains) is achieved via natural exposure or via vaccine. So shutting down while waiting for a vaccine is utterly stupid.

As the shutdown of general society while not shutting down hospitals and nursing homes continue, the risk of more deadly strains gaining evolutionary advantage becomes more significant. Because police and national guard operate on concentration of force (as otherwise they'd be out-numbered 1000:1 if going out individually), police and national guard will quickly become infected and ineffective if/when a more deadly contagious disease emerges (as of one week ago, NYPD had about 20% on sick-leaves citing Covid-19); at that point, the general population (at least those still surviving) will fully embrace 2nd Amendment right, discarding every single anti-gun law since the first unconstitutional infringement in the early 20th century.

Even the more clueful Democratic governors with future presidential aspirations have been distancing themselves from lock-downs, as they clearly recognize that Americans are not believers in internal societal lock-downs. If this lock-down continues for much/any longer, the Democrats will have their clock cleaned in the November election.

ThreeBays says

WookieMan says

We have 134k deaths WORLDWIDE as of this post. First known cases about early December 2019. Almost 5 fucking months deep. 80-90% of places didn't shut down after their first tested case. How in the flying fuck do you get to 100k in a day when we sat here opened up for MONTHS???

100K deaths in a day would've happened some time in May if we carried on business as usual.

ThreeBays says

I was talking about US now vs US one month ago. 12 daily deaths on March 15th. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

That's fine, but you clearly either didn't want to read or misread what I posted. It's one or the other. We're using the same source. Regardless, this doesn't get to 100k daily deaths WORLDWIDE ever. It's basically impossible as those most susceptible to death from this are or have died. The virus has less and less people to kill as the days go by.

ThreeBays says

We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.

Are you taking into account demographics? Population density? You're taking the worst possible place for a virus to be and saying those numbers will be the same elsewhere. That's not going to happen nationwide. Ever.

ThreeBays says

We can easily get an upper bound estimate on US infections. NYC has a population of 8.4M. If we say herd immunity is reached at 80%, then the upper bound on infected people in NYC is 6.7M. NYC makes up 40% of US covid deaths, so the upper bound of infected people in the US is 16.75M or 5% of the population. That's the UPPER BOUND.

What are you trying to say? If you assume herd immunity is reached at 80%, then of course 80% of the population will have to be exposed one way or another. If each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital / nursing-home setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus. Locking-down the society kills people quite unnecessarily from a purely virology perspective, before considering any economic effect.

ThreeBays says

Pop density doesn't matter here, we're just talking about how many people are infected.

Population density, especially housing format, matters a lot: NYC apartment buildings have a lot of indoor elevators and staircases that never see sunlight. Whereas the rest of the country mostly live in single-family homes, where the spread of virus from one household to another would expose the virus to prolonged UV irradiation from the Sun during March to September. The high population density of NYC also results in subways and high taxi usage, both of which make people breathe each other's out-breath in a small enclosed space.

Demographics matter. Demographics wise, NYC has a younger population, and lower incidence of obesity than the nation.

But also lower hygiene standards/habits, more opportunities for plumbing errors (and roof plumbing vents creating sewer gas/droplets, especially in the shadow of another building therefore not being sufficiently exposed to the Sun's UV), and cooks/serving-staff not washing hands long enough before touching people's food. Not to mention the hospitals having a higher probability of being staffed by affirmative-action morons who are committing suicide and homicide by not fully protecting themselves during their interactions with patients (as shown in that CBS interview with the doctor / ward chief not wearing eye protection and having the mask's nose clip untightened; none of her staff behind her were wearing eye goggles either while attending to a large windowless room full of alleged Covid-19 patients).

ThreeBays says

Pop density doesn't matter here,

I'm out. This is one of the most unintelligent things I've read on this virus. Why the fuck are entire nursing homes where residents live in 10x10 rooms getting wiped out? Is it density or age? Has to be one or the other.

Considering we're at the point of requiring masks and social distancing, you'd be insane to say population density didn't matter.... which you did.

Just say FUCK TRUMP and move on at this point. Feel like I'm beating a dead horse at this point.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

If each person gets his/her first exposure in a normal social setting, at low viral load, especially under a strong sun like on a beach or in a park (UV kills most airborne virus), then the person is effectively vaccinated (by the natural vaccine created by the Sun's UV); if most people have to get their first exposure in an indoor hospital setting with high viral load, then there would be a lot of sick/dead people from the virus.

Yeah, sorry I don't subscribe to theories pulled out of asses.

Viral load has a huge effect on whether the person gets sick from Covid-19 (and from flu, cold, etc.)

UV light is what is used for disinfecting medical operating rooms, and what's used in most cleaning machines for N-95 masks for re-use.

These two theories / facts are far better grounded in reality than any of the vaccine theory promoted by Gates organization or any of the models promoted by Fauci.

Truth ignored, this is what is called modern journalism. That’s what gives people TDS, who believe anything on internet because that’s easier than thinking.

Left is back to selling edge lord clickbait lol. I guess stupid audience needs stupid bait.

https://hartford.craigslist.org/for/d/middletown-toilet-paper-seeds/7100786040.html

ThreeBays says

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-15/covid-19-studies-imply-more-than-1-million-new-yorkers-with-virus

Based on women giving birth tested for covid-19 in NY, 15% tested positive. So NY hotspot has around 15% infection rate. Nationwide average would be around 1%.

Once again, your comment is showing ignorance. The 15% is the absolutely minimum lower-bound, as clearly expressed in the article as "more than 15%." What's the upper-bound? Can be 80% or even higer. Why? Because the Coronavirus test is testing for viral RNA fragments; a person (a new mother or new-born) having fought off the virus earlier during pregnancy and before delivery would not produce a positive result as they have already flushed the virus from their bodies. An anti-body test is unlikely to produce a positive result within a few weeks either, as the human body has to take several weeks to shift from producing short-term anti-body proteins to producing long-term antibody proteins. The anti-body tests are only testing for long-term antibody proteins. By the time anti-body tests show up positive in 1% or more among the population for a respiratory disease RNA virus, usually the virus has already passed through the bulk of the population.

ThreeBays says

Reality says

more than 15%

It says "33 of them, or more than 15% tested positive". 15.4% to be precise. Taking things out of context just makes you wrong.

You are still not getting it. The 15.4% testing positive at the time of birth (or shortly there-after) indicates at least (on the order of) 15% having been exposed; there can be another 30-85% having been exposed during pregnancy but already cleared the virus out from their bodies before baby delivery. Both types are almost immune to new infection by the same and similar CV (until the next major mutation, just like annual flu mutations)

The new-born statistic is just a way of random sampling that is not biased / self-selected due to severe sickness before arriving at the hospital.

The Diamond Princess numbers indicate that a large cross-section of the population (as much as half to 70%) having already exposed to corona virus previously (otherwise almost everyone would have tested positive, as it takes a couple weeks or longer for a person to go through the full immunal response cycle for first-exposure; and the mixing onboard a cruise ship would have everyone exposed. The USS Ted Roosevelt having the virus-positive number down to 10% is further indicating that the societal exposure already reached 80+%

ThreeBays says

Great, so we established that somewhere between 1% lower bound and 5% upper bound of US will have had the virus in the first wave,

What are you talking about? The first wave is at least 15% according to the new-born data, likely over 50% according to Diamond Princess data, and likely over 80% according to USS Ted Roosevelt data. Every person on those crowded ships was exposed if even a single person had it; the ones who could test negative after a few weeks mixing in that crowd had to be the ones who had fought it off. Just like the annual Flu: while 20k-80k people in the US die of Flu every year, the percentage of US population exposed to it is likely 80+%; most people can fight it off (and develop immunity to that particular year's flu) without showing anything more than slight symptoms or anything at all.

and 95% to 99% remain susceptible to further resurgence.

Depending on what the virus during "resurgence" is; if it's the same virus or minor variations of it, then the overwhelming majority of people would be immune to it. If something more deadly is released or a more deadly strain is evolved in hospitals due to the lock-downs, then nearly 100% of the population is susceptible, just like nearly 100% of the population is susceptible to an entirely new strain of flu virus (although a large percentage if not most people can still fight it off without major illness).

The upper bound of 5% for US is just math.

What math? Do you think only the people sick enough to show up at hospitals (and get tested) get the flu in any given year? Most people don't go to hospital after getting exposed to the flu; most of them are not even symptomatic.

The ship theory you have is un-plausible speculation, just like your UV things. Alternative Reality.

LOL! UV light is literally what's used for disinfecting hospital operating rooms and for disinfecting the straws that you use when sipping soda drinks from fast-food joints and how bottled water is treated. Without UV disinfection, people would long have been sick from using straws and drinking bottled water (OTOH, a well known survival strategy is putting whatever river/lake water you find in a transparent bottled-water bottle and expose it to the summer Sun for at least 4-6 hours). Now UV light is used in most disinfection machines for cleaning N95 masks for re-use. UV light exposure kills virus (and bacteria), and that's how many vaccines are made: by irradiation-kill live virus using UV-lights. The long day-light part of the year (March through September) also allow the Sun's UV light to reach earth's surface at high latitudes after passing less miles of atomosphere and ozone layer, so the unit area UV intensity and daily UV energy at high latitude locations increase dramatically during the long day-light part of the year. Lab experiments already show that UV exposure (at normal sunlight intensity) drastically reduce virus half-life in air and on surfaces: by an order of magnitude. Guess what dead virii are? They are natural vaccines! As the human body's immune system recognize the surface protein of dead virii (which is exactly the same as the surface protein as the live virus), and build up immunity against it. If you don't believe the UV theory, you are in effect rejecting all vaccine theory.

The annual seasonal variation in surface UV intensity at high latitude locations is the reason behind the "Flu-Season."

The crooks paying you to propagandize and telling people to be locked in until there is a man-made vaccine, are essentially trying to make the government block out Sunlight in order to make it more profitable for candle-makers . . . just like in Frederic Bastiat's allegory centuries ago.

WookieMan says

So one test turned into two positive cases of COVID-19.

from a quick search

The accuracy of the current COVID-19 tests is not precisely known. Reasonable estimates, based on test performance in China and the performance of the influenza tests, are that the tests will correctly identify around 60 percent of the patients with the disease and correctly identify 90 percent of the patients that are disease-free.

So one in ten that tested negative is positive and four of ten who are positive test negative.

How is testing going to stop the spread? Will all untested people have to stay inside?

When did America give up on chicken soup to treat really bad colds?

Here's the paper I mentioned on another thread. Heard about it on the Darkhorse podcast last weekend. Bear in mind, it's about the influenza virus (not COVID-19), but does show the effect of simulated sunlight (UV) on an influenza aerosol. YMMV...
In darkness, the average decay constant was 0.02 ± 0.06 min-1, equivalent to a half-life of 31.6 minutes. However, at full intensity simulated sunlight, the mean decay constant was 0.29 ± 0.09 min-1, equivalent to a half-life of approximately 2.4 minutes. Conclusions: These results are consistent with epidemiological findings that sunlight levels are inversely correlated with influenza transmission, and they can be used to better understand the potential for the virus to spread under varied environmental conditions.

EBGuy says

Here's the paper I mentioned on another thread.

Stop with facts. 2M dead, 100k a day is where we're heading.... lol. Thanks for posting.

The flattening of the curve very much appears to be correlating to the sun moving north of the equator. You would have thought countries like Sweden would be hockey sticking it up right now.... There's also the fact it's a virus and once it kills what it can, it has a hard time existing in the future amongst the masses.

The fall is going to blow because there will be another uptick. I've already had 2 vacations cancelled because of the senior Wuhhan bat flu and scheduled for Costa Rica in October. Gonna be pissed if that gets shit canned.

ThreeBays says

They're not trending well. Deaths are increasing 10% per day compared to neighbor Norway's 1.3%.

🤦‍♀️ You still don't get it. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill. We can't hide from it forever. No hospitals, in the US at least, are overwhelmed. Let's just get this over with and move on.

This is not remotely as deadly as some of the absurd models have forecasted. It's wiping out nursing homes here in the US and that's been the trend. Mostly in densely populated urban areas. Grandma was eventually going to die virus or not. I guess maybe some people haven't experienced much death in their life or are weak. Tough to figure out which it is.

ThreeBays says

Disagree. The imperial college model for the impact of full shutdown of non essential businesses and schools is surprisingly close to where we're landing.

You understand that basically sit down restaurants and arenas are closed in most states. That's the shut down. Everything else is wide open with a bunch of tape on the floor 6' apart with senior citizens zipping around in electric carts, half dead, wondering what's up. The ONLY thing I haven't been able to do is sit down, grab a burger and a beer or go to a sporting event/entertainment facility. Every other place is open...

I just went to Wisconsin today. I hit traffic. During a shut down? Not in IL cause the weather sucks, but kids are playing with each other all over the country. Amazon distribution center in Kenosha, WI packed. All drive through restaurants open. Gas stations. Fuck loads of road construction, seeing groups of engineers chatting about their project. Highway food/gas oasis' packed with drivers and employees at the restaurants. People are losing jobs, but we're not remotely near an actual shutdown.

There's barely a shut down, hence why the models are pure shit. Jazz just posted a video in another thread showing a woman that had her sister get misdiagnosed 5 times or something. The models are derived from these people misdiagnosing things or simply being shitty at their job. I think you know this is mostly bull shit and are just playing a game at this point. Having fun. Getting a reaction out of posting pure bulls shit.

Still only at 3 known cases of the menacing virus, ravaging the fuck out the world to the tune of 146k deaths as of this post in a world of ~7.7B people. 0.0001% of the worlds population has passed from this, many likely having cause of death misdiagnosed. Some in countries that haven't locked down or minimally so. This isn't what you think it is and you're believing lies. Sick of people freaking out and frankly being pussies.

Tim, you do realize the lies about every facet of Covid are as deep as Kim Kardashian's ass crack, right?

You think you know what the truth is? Prove it. You can't.

Question: are you sucking your thumb underneath your bed right now?

I'm not getting tested, and neither will most Americans. Those that don't understand what America is or what it is about, will bend over and drop their pants like little commie Fags.

The American adults, that can't be fucked around by Bill Gates, gets it, and sees this for what it is. It's a damn shame their are so many commie fags in America interloping always willing to drop their pants and take it up their commie asshole.

All of the lows have been broken by the low life scumbag Liberal fags. They are so fucking low, their ballsack scrapes the earths core when they walk.

HEYYOU says

The more dead RepCons the less stupid America will be.
All Rep Cons care about is about their own stupidity. Please suffer & die.

When liberals protest, the right condemned it. They shut down the freeway just because black people have been murdered by the state for hundreds of years! And god bless the nazis of Charleston, who bravely ran over those protesters there.

This is important stuff. Gotta get back to slacking for your corporations. Otherwise, how will you live paycheck to paycheck or fail to save for retirement?